Forex Technical Analysis

[alex22]

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR slid 0.5 % to 57.8200 .That's the biggest drop since June 10. 1-month volatility, rose 9 basis points to 10.99 %. 3-month forwards fell 0.5 % to 58.72. 3-month NDF fell 0.2 % to 58.74.

FACTORS

USD-INR 14-day relative strength index at 68, Near 70 ( INR oversold)
Opinion: Fed will signal a reduction in asset purchases.
US: FOMC starts a 2-day meeting tomorrow.
Inflation was at 4.7 % in May from a year earlier.
No changes in RBI Mid Term Review

GOLD

MARKETS

Gold was at $1,391.65 vs. $1,390.74 on June 14, when it rose 0.3 %. Gold for August up 0.2 % to $1,390.80, climbing for a 2nd day. Cash silver retreated 0.3 % to $22.0355.

FACTORS

U.S. government report :Wholesale prices climbed in May for the first time in 3 months
Holdings in ETF dropped to 2,116.834 MT on June 14. (March 2011 Low)
Funds lowered their longs by 4.1 % to 54,779.



FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

The euro added 0.4 % to 126.09 yen after posting a 2.6 % slump last week. EUR-USD slid 0.1 % to $1.3329. The yen weakened 0.3 % to 94.60 per USD following a 3.5 % weekly advance. The USD Index, added 0.1 % to 80.737 after falling 1.2 % last week.

FACTORS

EURO-ZONE : trade balance due today as inflows have supported the EURO
Funds cut Shorts on the EURO at a record pace in the past 2 weeks.
The longs were more than shorts on the EURO by 77,111
Euro-area trade surplus at $25 B in March ( 1999 High - 1.7% of GDP)
US Trade deficit is at 2.8 % of GDP, Japan Trade surplus is at 1% of GDP.
EUR was up 3.6 % in 2013, the best performer among 10 majors.
JP Morgan FX Volatility Index at a 1-year high of 11.43 % Vs. 7.05 % in Dec.



COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months rose 1.2 % to $7,176 MT was trading at $7,136.50 in Asian hours. Copper October was up 0.4 % to $8,435 per MT, and Copper July was up 0.6 % to $3.22 per pound.

FACTORS

Aluminum rose after falling for 3 months on a revival in U.S. manufacturing.
US: Factory output climbed 0.1 % after falling 0.4 % in April and 0.3 % in March
Funds increased Shorts by 18,722 contracts in June 11 from 6,626 a week earlier.



OIL

MARKETS

WTI July was at $97., down 25 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 18 % below the 100-day average. WTI rose 1.2 % to $97.85 on June 14. Brent August was down 17 cents to $105.76. Brent at a premium of $7.96 to WTI

FACTORS

Unrest in Syria will spread to other parts of the Middle East and disrupt supplies.
U.S. President Barack Obama was said to authorize arming Syrian rebel groups.
U.K. plans to give non-lethal support to the Syrian opposition,
President-elect H Rohani's vow to improve ties with the world : 1st -round election win.
Funds net-long up by 9.5 % in the week ended June 11.

 

[dhiaperfumes]

great info....

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR drops for 2nd day, falling 0.8% to 58.3350 . 1-month volatility rises 19 bps to 10.8075%, this

year's average is 9.1221%. 1-month NDF slips 1% to 58.69; 12-month NDF declines 1% to 61.70. INR has fallen 2.4% this month to 57.8662 through yesterday. Overnight call rate at 7.300%

FACTORS

Technical: Support at 57.9917, 58.1171; next support at 58.4646; pivot point at 57.7696; resistance at 57.6442, 57.4221, 57.0746 USD/INR 14-day RSI is around 72, above overbought threshold
Markets expects further 75 bps of repo rate cut in 2013.
Global funds sold $545.4 m of debt on June 14, most since Oct. 28, 2010.



GOLD

MARKETS

Gold traded at $1,384.40 vs. $1,385.35 yesterday, when it fell 0.4 %. Gold August was little changed at $1,382.50 .Gold is 17 % lower this year. Cash silver rose 0.2 % to $21.919 .

FACTORS

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust dropped to 1,003.17 MT yesterday
US: Home builders Confidence surged in June to the highest level in 7 years.



FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

The JPY fell 0.4 % to 94.85 per USD after losing 0.2 % yesterday. It slid 0.3 % to 126.70 per EUR. EUR was at $1.3356 after reaching $1.3390 on June 13, the strongest since Feb. 20.

FACTORS

BoJ its current-account balance will rise to a record with the stimulus.
German data forecast to show investor confidence advanced.
US FORECAST: CPI rose 0.2 % in May vs. a fall of 0.4 % in April (December 2008 High)
US FORECAST: Housing climbed 11.4 % in May vs. April to a 950,000 annualized rate.
JPMorgan FX Volatility Index fell to 10.26 % after a 1-year high of 11.43 % on June 13.
BoJ : QE Doubled to $74 B to achieve 2 % inflation in 2 years.



COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months fell 0.5 % to $7,047.50 was trading at $7,068.25 in Asia . Copper September lost 0.4 % to $3.1970 a pound. Copper October declined 1.2 % to $8,336 a ton.

FACTORS

U.S. Federal Reserve may scale back stimulus measures.
New home prices in China gained in 69 cities out of 70 cities



OIL

MARKETS

WTI July was at $97.78. . The volume of all futures traded was 40 % below the 100-day average. The contract rose 1.2 % to $97.85 on June 14, the highest close since Jan. 30. Brent August gained 7 cents to $105.54. The contract yesterday dropped 46 cents to $105.47. Brent at a premium of $7.53 to WTI

FACTORS

FORECAST: Crude supplies probably fell by 500,000 barrels last week.
Syrian President Bashar warned Europe will "pay the price" for arming rebels .
FORECAST: Refineries operated at 88 % of capacity, up 0.5 % from the prior week.

 

[dhiaperfumes]

great info....

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR fell 1.9 % to 59.86 . It dropped to an unprecedented 59.9275 earlier, past the previous all-time low of 58.9850 touched on June 11. 1-month volatility rose 88 basis points to an 11-month high of 12.24 %. 3-month forwards flat at 59.67 . 3-Month NDF contracts fell 2 % to 61.03.
FACTORS
• Fed signaled it is prepared to start phasing out its stimulus program.
• Fed will taper QE3 later in 2013 and halt purchases around mid-2014
• Global funds have pulled $3.3 billion from debt this month and $324 million stocks.
• India will auction $7 billion of sovereign debt-purchase permits to foreign investors today.
GOLD
MARKETS
Spot gold fell 0.9 % to $1,339.55 (May 20 low) , and was at $1,347.43 in Asia . Gold August fell as 2.6 % to $1,338.60 (May 20 low) . It had ended up 0.5 % yesterday. Cash silver fell as much as 1.1 % to $21.17 (May 20 low)
FACTORS
• Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, dropped below 1,000 MT 1st time in 4 years.
• Gold slumped 20 % this year amid opinion that the Fed will pare its QE3
• SPDR assets have slumped 351.3 reducing $30 billion from the fund's value.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD rose 0.6 % to 97.12 yen, after advancing to 97.18, the highest since June 11. USD gained 0.3 % to $1.3256 per euro following a 0.7 % advance. Japan's currency declined 0.4 % to 128.77 per euro. USD Index gained as much as 0.2 % to 81.607( June 11 High)
FACTORS
• US: FORECAST: Sales of owned houses up 0.6 % (MoM) to a 5 million rate in May (Nov 09 High)
• US: Fed Philadelphia's "economic index" is estimated at - 2 in Junevs. -5.2 May
• US: Fed "downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market have diminished"
• US: Fed : Outlook -GDP at 3.5 % and unemployment at 6.5 %.
• US: Fed inflation targeting at 1.05 %.
• JAPAN: Sold overseas debt for 5th week, worth $4.17 billion
• CHINA: PMI at 48.3 in June Vs 49.1 (FORECAST ) - Contraction
• Funds sell $19 billion of emerging market assets in 3 weeks.


COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months fell 1.3 % to $6,870.50 ( May 2nd Low) . Copper September was down 1.3 % to $3.111 per pound.
FACTORS
• CHINA: The preliminary reading of 48.3 PMI


OIL
MARKETS
WTI July delivery, which expires today, declined as much as $1.78 to $96.46. The volume of all futures traded was 87 % above the 100-day average. Prices decreased 20 cents to $98.24 yesterday. WTI august was down $1.82 at $96.66. Brent August fell $1.68, or 1.6 %, to $104.44 . Brent was at a premium of $7.84 to WTI.
FACTORS
• U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly increased
• U.S. gasoline inventories climbed by 183,000 barrels in the week ended June 14
• China is the world's 2nd oil consumer, accounting for 11 % of global demand in 2012.

 

[alex22]

YELLOW vs. GREEN: Gold loses 23% as USD Index rises 3.5%
QUOTE: :wondered if that was how forgiveness budded; not with the fanfare of epiphany, but with pain gathering its things, packing up, and slipping away unannounced in the middle of the night."

MARKET PULSE
• US: FORECAST: Durable goods increased (Up 3 % in May Vs. 3.5 % April)
• US: S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices up 10.6 % in April vs. 10.9 in March
• US: FORECAST: Consumer spending up 0.3 % vs. a fall of 0.2 % in April
• JAPAN: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sees a 12 % drop in JPY in 2013
• EURO -ZONE: FORECAST: German Business Confidence up 105.9 June Vs. 105.7 in May
• COPPER: LME inventories at a 10-year high (Up 3.4 % to 664,850 MT- July 2003 High)

COMMODITIES
• LME Woos China's Traders as Shanghai Vies for Global Stake
• Gold Positions Slump as $54 Bln. Erased From Funds
• Gold Swings After Tumbling to Lowest Since 2010 as Silver Drops
• WTI Trades Near 2-Week Low on Concern China Recovery May Slow
• Gold Miner Writedowns at $17 Bln after Newcrest Fallout
• Hedge Fund Boost Bullish Oil Bets

INDIAN INR

MARKETS
INR fell 0.6 % to 59.62 . It had touched a record low of 59.98 on June 20. INR has fallen 5.3 % in June . 1-month volatility was unchanged at 12.54 %. 3-month forwards dropped 0.7 % to 60.60. 3-month NDF fell 0.1 % to 60.77.
FACTORS
• INDIA: Global funds pulled out $4.6 Bln. from debt and stocks in June
• USD Index rose for a 4th day.
• FM: Chief Economic Adviser "India is prepared to curb currency volatility"
• USDINR 14-day RSI at 75.2, above the 70 threshold .

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold traded at $1,292.70 vs. $1,296.40 on June 21, when it fell to $1,269.46 (Sept. 16, 2010. Low) . Gold has fallen 23 % this year. Gold August rose 0.7 % to $1,300.70 before trading at $1,291.20 in Asian hours .Silver dropped 1.1 % to $19.9065, after earlier gaining 0.6 %.
FACTORS
• Gold's 14-day RSI was near the level of 30 that indicates bounce-back
• USD Index up 3.5 % , and rose 0.3 % today, advancing for a 4th day
• US: FORECAST: Durable goods increased (Up 3 % in May Vs. 3.5 % April)
• Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, declined to 989.94 MT ( Feb 2009. Low)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD rose 0.5 % to 98.39 JPY and saw a high of 98.70. (June 11th high). It appreciated 3.8 % last week, the best rise since the 5 days ended Dec. 4, 2009. USD rose 0.1 % to $1.3106 per euro, gaining for a 4th day, after earlier touching $1.3087 (June 6th High). The JPY declined 0.3 % to 128.92 per euro. The USD Index, rose 0.3 % to 82.586 and reached 82.692 earlier ( June 5th High) . The USD climbed to $1.5366 per GBP , (June 5th High) .
FACTORS
• Fed Dallas President R Fisher will speak on policy in London today.
• Japan's ruling coalition won a majority in Tokyo elections.
• Prime Minister Shinzo Abe sees a 12 % drop in JPY in 2013
• US: S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices up 10.6 % in April vs. 10.9 % in March
• FORECAST: German Business Confidence up 105.9 June Vs. 105.7 in May
• FORECAST: US Consumer spending up 0.3 % vs. a fall of 0.2 % in April.

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months fell 1.3 % to $6,728.50 a MT . Copper is poised for a third straight quarterly decrease. Copper September fell 1.4 % to $3.0580 per pound.
FACTORS
• LME inventories climbed to a 10-year high (Up 3.4 % to 664,850 MT- July 2003 High)
• Operations resumed at the Grasberg mine
• Shorts rose to 29,018 contracts vs 18,722 a week earlier.
OIL
MARKETS
WTI August at $93.47, down 22 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 7 % above the 100-day average. WTI fell $1.45, or 1.5 %, to $93.69 on June 21. Brent August fell 41 cents to $100.50 . Brent was at a premium of $7.03 to WTI.
FACTORS
• CHINA: POBC: to fine-tune policies as a cash squeeze risks economic slowdown.
• U.S. and 10 other countries pledged to increase support for rebel forces in Syria.
• Funds increased longs on WTI by 13 % in the week ended June 18

 

[alex22]

aud cad

time h4

Head and Shoulders

rd+

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/showthread.php?1154-AUD-CAD&p=2348#post2348

 

[cikyunita]

begitu bagusnya

 

[alex22]

gbp usd

h4

inv ab=cd

rd+

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/showthread.php?994-GBP-USD&p=2137#post2137

 

[alex22]

OFF VITAMINS: US Services, Jobs, Factories gain, Will Stimulus stop?

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

QUOTE: Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

MARKET PULSE
• U.S. : Factory orders rose in may
• US: ISM non-manufacturing index up 54 June vs. 53.7 in May
• U.S. : FORECAST : Service Sector rose the fastest pace since March.
• US: New York Fed President "economic growth will probably quicken in 2014"
• EURO -ZONE: ECB Says Debt Crisis Weighed on Role of Euro in Global Markets
• GOLD: Global ETP holdings have contracted 22 % in 2013
• CRUDE: Middle East accounted for 33 % of global crude output last year

COMMODITIES
• Gold Swings as Investors Weigh Physical Demand Against Stimulus
• S&P GSCI Commodities Index Gains for Third Day as Oil Rallies
• Gold at About $1,200 a 'Good Entry Point,' Coutts' Dugan Says
• Copper Futures Rise as Inventories Fall, Spread Spot Price Grows
• WTI Surges Above $100 on Egypt Unrest, U.S. Stockpile Decline

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR fell 0.5 % to 59.9350 . It fell to a lifetime low of 60.7650 on June 26. 1-month volatility fell 3 bp, to 12.22 %. 3-month forwards fell 0.6 % to 60.94. 3-month NDF fell 0.6 % to 61.11.
FACTORS
• US: jobless claims and payrolls data due this week
• Global Funds sold $7.1 Bln of assets in June
• RBI :draft guidelines on banks risk management for customers with unhedged FX exposure
• INDIA: FM: $75 Bln to fund the current account deficit by March 2014

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold was at $1,245.10 vs. $1,243.50 yesterday, after rising and falling at least 0.2 %. Gold August was flat at $1,245 after falling 1 %. Silver rose 0.4 % to $19.4811 after falling 1.2 % yesterday
FACTORS
• Gold fell 0.7 % yesterday as the USD strengthened.
• U.S. : Factory orders rose in may
• Global ETP holdings have contracted 22 % in 2013


FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD Index, flat at 83.581 after rising to 83.622 ( May 30 High) . EUR-USD fell 0.1 % to $1.2972 vs yesterday, when it saw a low of $1.2964 (June 3 Low) . USD-JPY was flat at 100.66 after earlier rising to 100.86. EUR-JPY at 130.58 vs. 130.61 with a high of 131.12. AUD fell to 90.94 U.S. cents, the lowest since September 2010, before trading at 91.10, down 0.4 % from yesterday.
FACTORS
• U.S. : FORECAST : Service Sector rose the fastest pace since March.
• AUSTRALIA: RBA: Transition from a resource boom could be aided by a weaker currency
• US: ISM non-manufacturing index up 54 June vs. 53.7 in May
• New York Fed President W. C. Dudley "economic growth will probably quicken in 2014"
• ECB Says Debt Crisis Weighed on Role of Euro in Global Markets
COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months up 1 % to $6,976 a MT trading at $6,944.75 in Asia . It rose to $6,982 yesterday, ( June 19 High). Copper October flat at $8,167 a ton. Copper September up 0.3 % to $3.151 a pound.
FACTORS
• Inventories declined for a 6th day to 659,200 tons yesterday
• Shanghai inventories fell for the 1st time in 5 weeks to 182,493 tons last week.
• Copper Cash at a premium of $18 a ton to the 3-month contract
OIL
MARKETS
WTI August up $2.58, or 2.6 %, to $102.18. The volume of all futures traded was almost seven times the 100-day average. The contract increased $1.61, or 1.6 %, to $99.60 yesterday, the highest close since May 2012. Brent August up $1.61, or 1.6 %, to $105.61. Brent was at a premium of $3.16 to WTI
FACTORS
• Egypt's political showdown escalated
• U.S. stockpiles shrank the most this year.
• U.S. crude inventories fell by 9.4 million barrels last week, American Petroleum Institute
• The Middle East accounted for 33 % of global crude output last year