Forex Technical Analysis

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR weakened 0.3 % to 56.155 . It touched 56.1850 earlier, the weakest level since Aug. 3, and has dropped 4.2 % this month. 1-month volatility raised 2 BP and was at 8.80 %. 3-month forwards traded at 57.06 compared with 56.87 yesterday. USD Index , gained 0.7 % this week.
FACTORS
• Global funds investments in debt at a record of $38.5 Bln on May 21
• Current account deficit was at an all time high of 5 % of GDP (official estimates.)

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold climbed 0.7 % to $1,390.30 and was at $1,387 in Asian hours, down 6.1 % in May. Gold fell 1.5 % yesterday, touching $1,373.63. Gold August was up 0.5 % to $1,386. It is down 5.8 % in May for a second monthly decline. Silver was little changed at $22.36, 26 % lower this year.
FACTORS
• Assets in ETPs dropped 0.2 % to 2,154.2 MT yesterday.
• Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot volumes rose to 15,641 kilograms.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD Index, rose 0.3 % to 84.349. USD flat at $1.2845 /EUR after rising 0.6 % yesterday. The yen traded at 131.57 per euro from 131.59 and was little changed at 102.42 per USD. The Aussie fell 0.8 % to 95.40 U.S. cents, after dropping to 95.36, the weakest since Oct. 5, 2011.
FACTORS
• US: 1st Quarter GDP Tomorrow (ESTIMATE 2.5%)
• ESTIMATE: 2013 GDP GROWTH: U.S. - 2 %, Japan 1.4 %, Euro-Zone minus 0.6%
• CAD Falls to 1-Year Low on opinion that Fed will slow down QE3
• Swiss Franc Falls as Investors Pursue Risky Assets

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper fell, paring its first monthly gain in four months as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. said it can start open-pit production at Indonesia's Grasberg mine after an accident halted operations. Copper 3 Months fell 0.2 % to $7,306. Relative strength index 50.
FACTORS
• Asian stocks rose for a second day after improving U.S. Data
• China's steel output rose by 20.09 million tons in the first 4 months of 2013
• Japan's output of copper and copper- alloy fabricated products rose 2.9 % in April
OIL
MARKETS
WTI July at $94.77 down 24 cents,. The volume of all futures traded was 39 % below the 100-day average.. Prices are up 1.4 % this month after a 3.9 % loss in April. Brent July down 16 cents at $104.07. Brent at a premium of $9.30 to WTI
FACTORS
• FORECAST: Crude supplies slid for a 3rd week, the longest run of declines this year. (750,000)
• OPEC will maintain its production quota at 30 million barrels a day.

 

[alex22]

usd cad

time daily pattern : shark

time h4: rd-

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR little changed at 56.4950. 1-month volatility rises 19 bps to 9.4175%; this year's average 9.0131%. NDF 1-month up 0.3% to 56.85, 12-month rose 0.3% to 59.91. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.242%. Overnight Inter-bank raised 70 BP to 7.30%
FACTORS
• Technical: Support at 56.7112, 56.9175, 57.2813; resistance at 56.3474, 56.1899, 55.8261. USD's 14-day is at 81.5, above overbought threshold. USD/INR upper Bollinger band is at 56.7529.
• RBI to clarify licensing for new banks on June 3.
• Standard Chartered Bank cuts FY14 GDP growth to 5.5% from 6.0%.


GOLD
MARKETS
Gold gained 0.7 % to $1,397.88 and was trading at $1,395.60 in Asia. Prices fell 6 % last month, including a 1.9 % decline on May 31. Gold August was flat at $1,394.30. Silver climbed 1.1 % to reach $22.395.
FACTORS
• Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, unchanged for a 2nd day on May 31.
• USD Index, dropped 0.2 %.
• Funds raised their net- longs by 35 % to 48,096 Contracts Week of May 28.
• Assets in silver-backed ETPs fell by 2.4 % in May, (2 years high)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The euro flat at $1.3012 . It fell 1.3 % in May . Euro gained 0.2 % to 130.87 yen. The USD added 0.1 % to 100.58 yen. AUD advanced 0.6 % to 96.28 U.S. cents, after dropping to 95.28 on May 29, the lowest since October 2011.
FACTORS
• EU Manufacturing contracted for a 22nd month
• Opinion: ECB will hold its interest rate at a record low of 0.5 % .
• FORECAST: EU PMI at 47.8 in May.
• China's non-manufacturing PMI was at 54.3 in May from 54.5 (April).
• Yen shorts increase to 99,769, versus 95,186 a week earlier.
• Draghi Sees Signs of Stabilization in 'Challenging' Economy.
• ECB's Coeure Says BOJ Policy Not Yet Negative for Global Economy.

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months gained up 1 % to $7,380 . Prices advanced in May for the first time in four months, gaining 3.6 %. Copper July rose 1.2 % to $3.3315 a pound
FACTORS
• China President Xi Jinping said expansion is on a "more stable footing,".
• China PMI at 50.8 in May from 50.6 in April, after a separate gauge last week signaled a contraction.
• China's State Reserve Bureau bought about 30,000 tons of nickel, 1/6th of stocks in LME.
• Copper stocks fell to 608,450 tons on May 31.


OIL
MARKETS
Brent, fell 0.6 % to $99.75 , before rising again to 100. Brent July at $100.32 down 7 cents. Prices slid 2.2 % last week and 1.9 % in May. WTI July at $91.94 down 3 cents. Prices dropped 2.3 % last week and 1.6 % in May. Brent was at a premium of $8.38 to WTI .
FACTORS
• OPEC kept its production target unchanged( 30 million barrels a day).
• US: Stocks rose to 398 million barrels in the week ended May 24, the most since 1931.
• U.S. crude output rose 34,000 barrels to 7.29 million a day in the week ended May 24.
• Hedge fund cut longs on Crude by 6.2 % (May 28).

Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/other-pairs/51229-futures-5.html#ixzz2V9yF5zUP

 

[candle7]

GBP/USD berada diarea 1,5305.

Selama harga diperdagangkan di atas area tersebut, pasangan GBP/USD berpotensi menguat dengan penguatan menuju area 1,53575.

deposit bonus 40

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR rose 0.1 % to 56.3590 . It advanced 0.6 % yesterday, the biggest gain since April 30. 1-month volatility fell 11 bp to 8.85 %. 3-month forwards at 57.32 Vs. 57.31. 3- Month NDF were at 57.26 vs. 57.32.

FACTORS

RBI curbs on gold imports, (Gold is 80 % of the nation's current-account deficit.)
Fed Dallas President Fisher called for a reduction in the Fed's $85 Bln.QE3
USD index declined.



GOLD

MARKETS

Gold rose 0.6 % to $1,408.20 and was at $1,407.30 in Asia . Prices fell 0.9 % yesterday. Gold August was up 0.6 % to $1,406. It had fallen 1 % yesterday. Cash silver advanced 0.3 % at $22.62 . Gold dropped 16 % in 2013.

FACTORS

Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust fell to 1,010.45 MT down for the first time in a week.
India, the world's biggest consumer, widened curbs on imports.



FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

USD was flat at 99.84 JPY . It had risen 0.5 % yesterday. The euro flat at $1.3087 from $1.3081. EUR lost 0.1 % to trade at 130.66 vs. the JPY. The USD Index, was flat at 82.708. 3-month volatility of the G7 even currencies was near the highest in more than 3 months. The measure was at 10.12 % after touching 10.24 % yesterday, the highest since Feb. 26.

FACTORS

Kansas Fed President Esther urged a reduction in the QE3
JAPAN: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed that his nation will end deflation with policies.
FORECAST: U.S. Jobs rose by 46,000 jobs to 165,000 in May vs. April
USD Set to Rise 10% as Deutsche Bank Cites Yield
AUSTRALIA: Central bank rate at 2.75% (lowest ever) hints at rate cuts
CAD Declines as Wider Trade Deficit Undercuts Growth
US Trade deficit up 8.5 % to $40.3 Bln. from $37.1 Bln in March
UK: Increase in PMI of construction, retail sales also improved.





COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months fell 0.6 % to $7,410. Copper July lost 0.2 % at $3.3615 a pound. Copper October up 0.4 % to $8,697 a ton.

FACTORS

Freeport's output in Indonesia is shut for a government probe.
Closing the mine for the entire period would remove about 140,000 tons of supply.



OIL

MARKETS

WTI July delivery was up 67 cents to $93.98. The volume of all futures traded was 39 % below the 100-day average. Prices slid 14 cents to $93.31 yesterday. Brent July was up 25 cents, , to $103.49. Brent at a premium of $9.60 to WTI.

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR fell 0.8 % to 57.525 . It is the biggest drop since May 10. It touched 57.82, surpassing the previous record low of 57.3275 set in June 2012. 1-month volatility, up 13 basis points, to 9.16 %. 3-month forwards slid 0.4 % to 58.17 , 3-Month NDF down 0.6 % to 58.56.
FACTORS
• US employers took on 175,000 workers in May, more than the 163,000 forecast.
• Fed's . Bernanke, said that "Fed "could" scale back stimulus efforts if the employment outlook shows "sustainable improvement."

GOLD
MARKETS
Spot gold advanced as much as 0.4 % to $1,388.41 before trading at $1,386.04 in Asia. Silver traded 0.5 % up at $21.7715 after declining 4.4 % on June 7, the biggest drop at close since April 15.
FACTORS
• China's IIP at 9.2 % in May from a year earlier and factory-gate prices fell for a 15th month.
• China Export were at a 10-month low and imports dropped.
• Alan Greenspan, a former Fed chairman, said "Fed needs to begin cutting back on QE3"
• Funds net-long position on gold up by 19 % to 57,113
• Gold ETFs fell 1.3 MT to 2,135.866 MT ( May 2011 low)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The USD resumed its bounce against the JPY in early Asian trade on Monday, moving well away from a 2-month low in the previous session, while the AUD fell after data from China. USD rose to 98.28 JPY, 3.5 % higher than a trough of 94.98 hit during volatile trade on Friday
FACTORS
• JPY at 90 Seen by Options Losing Confidence in Abe
• USD Rises Versus JPY on Fed Opinion
• Chancellor Merkel said euro nations tighten budgets and reshape the labor markets.
• U.K. Recovery : BDO gauge of company output expectations up to 94.4, ( June 2012, High)


COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3- months fell 1.2 % to $7,146 (May 16 Low) , and was trading at $7,182.25 in Asia . Prices lost 1.1 % last week. Copper July slid 0.7 % to $3.2440 per pound.
FACTORS
• China's trade and industrial production trailed estimates
• China's industrial output rose a less-than-forecast 9.2 % in May
• U S jobs grew 175,000 in May, beating the 163,000 forecast
• China car sales were up by 9 % (1.4 million) Vs. 13 % in April and 13.3 % in March.
• Copper imports by China were at 358.672 MT vs. 295,799 MT in April and 419,741 MT a year ago.

OIL
MARKETS
WTI July at $96.08 a barrel, up 5 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 7 % above the 100-day average. Brent July fell 3 cents to $104.53 . Brent was at a premium of $8.45 to WTI.
FACTORS
• Sudan threatened to halt exports of South Sudan's oil.
• China's crude imports rose to a four-month high in May ( 5.64 million barrels a day).
• China: Oil refining dropped 1.4 % from April to 9.24 million barrels a day,
• Net-long positions dropped by 5,404 or 2.5 %, to 212,127,
• Japan GDP expanded an annualized 4.1 %, vs. 3.5 %, estimated .

Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/other-pairs/51229-futures-6.html#ixzz2Vpq3lgvf

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR was 0.4 % weaker at 58.3950 , having earlier touched an all-time low of 58.4175. 1-month volatility, rose 40 basis points, to 10.59 %. 3-month forwards slid 0.8 % to 59.34. 3-month NDF dropped 1 % to 59.47.
FACTORS
• INR dropped to a record low on opinion that Fed will pare debt purchases
• Investors redeemed more than $6 Bln from high-yield bond funds worldwide (this week )
• JPMorgan Asia USD Index, (USD Vs. 10 currencies) fell to a to a 9 month low .

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold traded near a 2-week low. Gold was at $1,384.15 after declining 0.2 % to $1,383.15. Prices fell to $1,375.95 yesterday, the lowest level since May 28. Gold August future lost 0.2 % to $1,383.30. Silver lost 0.2 % to $21.8875 .
FACTORS
• US: S&P AA+ credit rating outlook to stable from negative, citing receding fiscal risks.
• Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, rose for the 1st t time since May 29.
• FORECAST: . Fed reduce QE3 to $65 Bln (October FOMC) from $85 Bln.
• Newcrest Mining, Australia's largest gold producer, to write down $5.7 Bln

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The yen strengthened 0.6 % to 97.17 vs. yesterday, when it fell 1.2 %. It gained 0.5 % to 130.29 per euro. EUR rose 0.1 % to $1.3270.
FACTORS
• BOJ refrained from extending the maturity of loans to banks.
• AUSTRALIA: Home-loan approvals expanded by less than forecast.
• BOJ kept unchanged its plan for a $611 Bln annual increase in money supply
• CAD Rises as Housing Increases More Than Forecast
• U.K. borrowing costs are the highest in more than 3 months as for $9.3 Bln of Gilt sales

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months rose 0.9 % to $7,223.25. The price touched $7,126.50 yesterday. Copper July little changed at $3.2415 a pound.
FACTORS
• Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.'s Grasberg mine will cut output.
• China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in May up 21 % from April

OIL
MARKETS
WTI July at $95.67 down 10 cents. . The volume of all futures traded was 73 % below the 100-day average. The contract fell 26 cents yesterday to $95.77, the lowest close since June 6. Brent July fell 23 cents to $103.72. Brent was at premium of $8.04 to WTI
FACTORS
• FORECAST: U.S. stockpiles increased while refinery rates rose for a 2nd week.
• FORECAST U.S. crude inventories rose by 550,000 barrels last week.
• Refinery utilization rates climbed 0.3 % 88.7 %, (Highest since Jan. 4)
• Global oil and gas from shale are greater than previously estimated( EIA ).
• Shale gas estimates increased by 10 % to 7,299 trillion cubic feet.
• Reserves of tight oil, may be 345 Bln barrels (EIA)

 

[candle7]

EURUSD:
Totally there is expected bearish movement to the level 1,3180. If the price breaks the resistance level 1,3298 the bullish movement will start to the level 1,3350.
details

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR appreciated 0.1 % to 58.3550. 1-month volatility, fell 5 basis points to 11.56%. 3-month forwards rose 0.4 % today to 59.31. 3-month NDF gained 0.3% to 59.32.

FACTORS

Government said it is considering an overseas bond sale to spur capital inflows.
USD sales by RBI and allowing more foreign investment in the debt market are other measures



GOLD

MARKETS

Gold was little changed at $1,377.39. Prices touched $1,366.19 yesterday, the lowest since May 23. Gold August was little changed at $1,376.60 . Silver spot climbed 0.7 % to $21.8085.

FACTORS

Goldman Sachs : 12-month forecast at $1,345.
Holdings in ETF have lost 19.2 % this year, reaching 2,127.5 MT yesterday (April 2011 low ).





FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

EUR was flat at $1.3308 after touching $1.3318 yesterday, the strongest since Feb. 25. The EUR gained 0.3 % to 128.28 yen, after falling 2.4 % yesterday. The USD rose 0.4 % to 96.40 yen.

FACTORS

EURO- ZONE short-term rates reached a four-month high, 2Y Swap at 0.32% vs. 0.05% April
AUD rebounded from a 3 years low as consumer confidence rose.
EURO ZONE : The rising rates show expectations of a rate cut by the ECB have receded.
US: FORECAST: Retail sales up .4 % in May vs. 0.1 % gain in April.
US: 10 Y at 2.29% (Year High)





COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3- months traded between $7,087 and $7,020, and was little changed at $7,056.75 in Asian hours. Copper July fell 0.3 % to $3.1865 a pound.

FACTORS

Opinion: Central banks will refrain from adding more stimuli to boost global growth.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. rescheduled concentrate shipments to its customers.

OIL

MARKETS

WTI July fell 91 cents to $94.47. The volume of all futures traded was 40 % below the 100-day average. It fell 39 cents, to $95.38 yesterday, the lowest since June 6. Brent July fell 59 cents to $102.37. Brent was at a premium of $7.88 to WTI .

FACTORS

U.S. crude stockpiles increased the most in more than four years.
OPEC: Demand forecast for 2013 unchanged, due to risks to the global economy.
OPEC: Global oil demand up by 780,000 barrels/day, to 89.7 million (up 0.9%)

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

The INR depreciated 0.6 % to 58.1325 . It touched an all-time low of 58.9850 on June 11. 1-month volatility, fell 8 basis points to 11.30 %. 3-month forwards fell 0.1 % to 58.78 . 3-month NDF fell 0.5 % to 59.15.

FACTORS

World Bank cut growth forecasts and on concern that central banks will pare stimulus.
World Bank: Global economy will expand 2.2 % in 2013 Vs. forecast of 2.4 %.
Market Buzz: RBI intervened June 11-12 to prevent the INR falling to 60
Long-term investors can buy $5 billion more Indian sovereign debt
The limit on debt purchases is now $30 billion, vs. $25 billion earlier.
FM Chidambaram: Press Conference today on the INR weakness
Fitch Ratings revised India's credit-rating outlook to stable from negative .
FOMC meets next week after the BoJ this week left its lending program unchanged.



GOLD

MARKETS

Gold was flat at $1,388.84 after rising 0.5 % and declining 0.3 %. Gold August down 0.3 % to $1,388.20. Silver spot flat at $21.8175.

FACTORS

USD fell to a 4-month low.
World Bank: US GDP 2 % up 2013 vs. Forecast of 1.9 %.
USD Index fell 0.4 % to the lowest since February.





FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

The JPY surged 1.4 % to 94.69 after rising to 94.45, the strongest since April 4. Its 4.3 %, 3-day advance is set to be the biggest since May 2010. USDJPY 1-month volatility touched 18.2 %. JPY gained 1.3 % to 126.48 per EUR . EUR rose 0.1 % to $1.3355 after reaching $1.3370, the highest since Feb. 20. The USD Index fell to the lowest in 4 months . It fell 0.3 % to 80.733, after dropping to 80.651,( Feb. 20 Low). It lost 0.9 % over the previous 3 sessions.

FACTORS

Japanese investors were net sellers of overseas bonds and stocks for a 4th- week.
USD volatility against the JPY was at a 2 year high.
NZD fell after the central bank signaled the currency remains overvalued.
Japanese sold $4.1 billion of foreign debt and a net 221.8 billion JPY of equities
JPY 10-year yields rose from 0.315 % to 1 % .
Japan's Topix index of shares tumbled 3.8 %. (Fallen 17% since May 22)
US Forecast: Retail Sales up 0.4 % in May, the best in 3 months
US Forecast: Jobless benefits rose 26,000 to 2.98 million in the week ended June 1.
U.K. Inflation Expectations Risk Becoming Dislodged, BOE Says





COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months rose 1 % to $7,190. The price touched $7,020 yesterday, the lowest since May 3. Copper July was flat at $3.227 a pound. Copper October retreated 2.3 % to $8,447 a ton .

FACTORS

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. declared force majeure on shipments
Grasberg is reducing output by 1,361 tons of copper and 3,000 ounces of gold a day.
This is equal to 2.9 % of average daily global copper output this year.



OIL

MARKETS

WTI July fell 62 cents to $95.26. The volume of all futures traded was 34 % below the 100-day average. WTI was up 50 cents to $95.88 yesterday. Brent July which expires today, fell 38 cents, or 0.4 %, to $103.11. Brent August was down 45 cents at $103.11. Brent was at a premium of $7.82 to WTI.

FACTORS

World Bank cut its forecast for global economic growth.
U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week, government data showed.
Protesters returned to Istanbul's Taksim Square
Libya said sabotage has cut its crude output. (Production declined to 1m from 1.6m barrels)
OPEC will need to supply 29.8 million barrels a day: IEA (Reduction by 20,000 )
OPEC would need to cut output by 1.1 million barrels from the 30.9 million output May.