Forex Technical Analysis

[alex22]

eur chf h4

pattern : crab

 

[alex22]

usd cad h4

inv ab=cd

 

[alex22]

eur cad

h4

pattern : bat

 

[alex22]

aud cad daily

patern : bat- reciprocal ab=cd

 

[alex22]

nzd usd

time daily


pattern : bat - ab=cd- reciprocal ab=cd

 

[alex22]

eur chf h4

pattern : crab

 

[alex22]

aud chf

pattern :

inv ab=cd- bat

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR advanced 0.2 % to 55.03 ,it had touched 55.1350 yesterday. 1-month volatility, fell 5 BP to 8.43 %. 3-month forwards at 55.95 vs. 56.04. 3-Month NDF were at 55.82 vs. 55.88.
FACTORS
• Inflation eased to a 41-month low (4.89 % in April)
• Global funds bought $883 million of shares last week
• Global holdings of ll debt rose to a record $38 Bln on May 17.
• Auction of $1 Bln of sovereign debt-purchase permits was oversubscribed yesterday.
• Current account deficit rose to 5% of GDP (Record High)
• Bernanke : 22nd May : U.S. economic outlook for a Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold fell on Tuesday for the 8th of 9 sessions. Gold had fallen 0.3 % to $1,388.36 in Asian hours . Gold gained 2.6 % on Monday after a seven-session slide to cross the 1400$ mark .Gold futures gained 0.2 % to $1,386.90. Silver was down 1.4 % at $22.61. It hit a session low of $22.41, not far off the 2-1/2 year low of $20.84 on Monday, when it eventually closed 3 % higher.
FACTORS
• Gold fell as the USD appreciated
• Opinion: Fed may soon stop its monthly $85-Bln bond purchases.
• Holdings of the largest ETF, the iShares Silver Trust have fallen to their lifetime low
• SPDR Gold Trust holdings down to 1,031.50 MT (4 year low)
• Physical demand in India, down after a rise of 138 % in April.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD rose 0.2 % to 102.69 JPY after economics minister Akira Amari said he hoped the JPY settles at a level justified by fundamentals and where the impact on imports and exports is balanced. GBP rose 0.1 % to $1.5289, paring gains after earlier climbing to as high as $1.5368
FACTORS
JPY Falls Versus Peers After Amari Remarks
U.S. Faces Downgrade in 2013 Without Budget Deal, Moody's Warns
Pound Gains From Six-Week Low Versus USD; Gilts Decline


COPPER
MARKETS
3-month copper slipped 0.41 % to $7,369, reversing gains of more than 1 % from the previous session.
FACTORS
• Opinion of slowing demand growth in China
• Key factory figures this week from US .
OIL
MARKETS
WTI June at $96.89 up 18 cents, . The contract expires today. The volume of all contracts traded was 18 % below the 100-day average. The more active July future rose 20 cents to $97.13. Front-month prices increased 69 cents yesterday, or 0.7 %, to $96.71, the highest close since April 2. Brent July up 23 cents to $105.03. Brent was at a premium of $7.90 to WTI futures.
FACTORS
• Forecast to show the first back-to-back decrease in stockpiles this year. (800,000 barrels)
• U.S. Memorial Day on May 27 marks the start of the nation's peak driving period.
• U.S. refineries operated at 88.4 % of capacity in the week of May 17, up 0.4 %.
• Syrian government forces started an offensive against rebels.
• Middle East accounted for 33 % of global oil output in 2011.

 

[robert11]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR weakened 0.6 % to 55.8100 and reached 55.8787, the lowest level since Nov. 26. 1-month volatility, rose 16 BP to 8.63 %. 3-month forwards at 56.80 Vs. 56.53 yesterday. NDF 3-Month were at 56.76 vs. 56.46. 10 year benchmark at 7.41 % .
FACTORS
• INR fell to a 6-month low after the Fed signaled a reduction in stimulus
• Global Funds net at $14.2 Bln. into Indian shares.
• PM 's Economic Council estimates : current-account deficit at to 5.1 % of GDP.
• INR dropped 2.4 % this quarter, after gaining 1.3 % in the prior 3 months.

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot at $1,387.99 after rising 0.8 %. The price reached a more than 2-year low of $1,321.95 on April 16.
FACTORS
• Global ETP assets fell 10.27 MT to 2,177.12 (Down 454.8 MT in 2013 )
• Contraction more than the combined inflows in 2011 and 2012, ( 446.67 MT)
• ETP holdings have fallen 17 % in 2013
• Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell to 1,023.08 tons yesterday (Feb 2009 low)


FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD at a 3-year high against a basket of majors on Thursday. USD index at 84.381 after gaining more than 0.5 % on Wednesday to reach a peak of 84.422, ( July 2010 high) . Against the yen, it rose 0.1 %to 103.23, near a 4-1/2 year high of 103.74.
FACTORS
• USD Index Touches Almost 3-Year High Before Jobs, Home Data
• Bernanke said yesterday: The Fed may taper monthly bond purchases
• Chinese manufacturing is contracting PMI goes below 50
• CAD Falls to 1-Year Low as Bernanke Hints at Tapering
• BOJ Prepared to Adjust Bond Purchases After Yield Jump:
• BOJ Governor Kuroda -"central bank will conduct its debt purchases in a flexible manner"

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper declined the most in a week , it fell 1.8 % to $7,340. Relative strength index 51.
FACTORS
• Metals sank on disappointing Chinese manufacturing data.
• The USD rose against most of its major peers

OIL
MARKETS
WTI Futures fell 0.8 % losing 2 % yesterday, ( May 1 low) . WTI July fell 76 cents to $93.52 . The volume of all contracts traded was 7 % below the 100-day average. Brent July fell 75 cents, to $101.85. Brent was at a premium of $8.31 to WTI.
FACTORS
• Gasoline inventories rose 3 million barrels last week,
• China's PMI dropped to 49.6 for May, the lowest since October

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR fell 0.2 % to 55.675 (Low of 56.0150 May 23). INR has declined 3.4 % in May. 1-month volatility, fell 15 BP. to 8.99 %. 3-month forwards at 56.50 Vs. 56.46 . 3-Month NDF at 56.56 Vs. 56.45.
FACTORS
• US: Forecast: consumer sentiment highest level since Nov.
• US: S&P/Case-Shiller Index property values in 20 cities rose most since April 2006
• RBI: Lenders cannot make loans using units of gold exchange-traded funds as collateral.
• RBI: May 13: Imports of Gold by banks on a consignment basis to only for exporters.
• Global funds bought a net $14.5 Bln. of Indian shares in 2013
GOLD
MARKETS
Spot gold fell 0.5 % to $1,387.18 trading at $1,389.97 in Asia. Gold down 17 % in 2013 . Gold August at $1,389.30 vs. $1,387.50 on May 24. Silver declined 0.9 % to $22.4805, heading for a 4th monthly decline.
FACTORS
• USD Index up 0.1 %.
• Shanghai Gold Exchange: Cash Gold at a 2-week low of 10,094 kg yesterday.
• Hong Kong, delivery premiums down to $3 vs. $5 to $6 last week.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD rose 0.9 % to 101.86 /JPY and rose 0.2 % to $1.2904 /EUR. JPY fell 0.7 % to 131.42 /EUR . USD Index rose 0.2 % to 83.889. Markets in the U.S. and U.K. were closed yesterday for public holidays.
FACTOR
• U.S. FORECAST: consumer sentiment up to 71 (May) vs. 68.1 in April (Nov. 2012 High)
• S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in U.S. up 10.2 % March ( April 2006 High)
• BOJ deposits for financial companies will rise to a record 72.4 trillion yen ($711 Bln.)
• BoJ to buy 7 trillion yen of Gov.t bonds every month to end 15 years of deflation.
• FX OTC trading rose 30%, in May vs. previous month.

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3- months fell 1.1 % to $7,220 and was trading at $7,237 in Asia . Copper July fell 0.7 % to $3.2730 a pound. Copper September declined 1 % to $8,491 per ton.
FACTORS
• China GDP was 7.7 % in Q1 vs. 7.9 % in Q4 2012 , POBC target at 7.5 %.
• Copper up 2.6 % in May (1st gain in since January).
• McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.'s Grasberg mine stopped mining after a tunnel collapse.
OIL
MARKETS
WTI July fell 92 cents to $93.23 ,was trading at $93.55 in Asia . Brent July rose 2 cents to $102.64. Brent at a premium of $9.09 to WTI. The spread was $8.85 yesterday.
FACTORS
• UAE said global demand will stay "relatively weak."
• OPEC is forecast to keep its supply target unchanged on May 31.
• Current prices are "suitable and fair," said Al Mazrouei, the U.A.E.'s energy minister.
• Global consumption about 800,000 barrels a day more than in 2012 : UAE Energy Minister.
• Crude at $100 a barrel is a "reasonable" price :Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi
• Hedge funds long on Brent by 16,460 contracts in the week ended May 21.
• Longs vs. Shorts were more by 146,679 lots.