Forex Technical Analysis

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eur usd

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nzd chf

time daily

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AUD CAD

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AUD CHF

H1

 

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eur usd

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eur gbp

alt bat . time daily

 

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usd chf

time : daily attern shark

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eur usd

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INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR falls 0.1% to 54.0440. 1-month volatility rises 4 bps to 8.6175% . 12-month NDF at 57.223, 3-month forwards at 55.03 vs. 54.93 , 3-Month NDF at 54.78 vs. 54.74. 10Y Benchmark at 7.774% . 1-yr IRS at 7.2650% while 5-yr IRS at 7.0150%.
FACTORS
• Technical: INR 0.3% above 50 DMA at 54.2149.
• Global funds increased holdings of debt by $247.1 m, to $34.62 b.
• India's current-account deficit eased after Brent slipped 9 % and gold fell 11 %.
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot up 1.4 % to $1,423.10. Gold June up 1.8 % to $1,420, gaining for a 3rd day . Silver up 1.1 % to $23.504 rising for the first time in four days
FACTORS
• U.S. Mint has sold 167,500 ounces in April, vs. 62,000 ounces in March
• Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society in Hong Kong, has run out of physical gold
• India, gold imports may jump by 36 % in the 3-months through June .
• GOLD ETF fell for the 14th day to 2,340.618 MT (Nov. 11 Low)
• GOLD Funds increased net-long positions in gold by 9.8 % to 61,579 futures
• One ounce of gold bought 60.8278 ounces of silver today (Sep. 2010 High)
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD climbed 0.3 % to 99.83 yen, having risen as high as 99.90 in early Asian trade on Monday.
FACTORS
• FORECAST : US GDP Q1 2013- 3.1 % vs. 0.4 % in Q4 2012.
• Bank of Canada Governor said interest-rate increases depends on growth more than 2 %.
• ECB's Knot Says Economic Data Show Risks 'On the Downside'.
• Bank of England to buy another 80 billion pounds ($122 billion) of bonds.
• PBOC's Zhou Says China Must Sacrifice Growth to Reform.

COPPER
Copper retreated towards 18-month lows below $7,000 on Monday, as sluggish global growth tempers industrial demand and erodes investor appetite for metals. 3-month copper fell by 0.93 % to $6,935 extending losses from the previous session.


OIL
Brent crude near $100 on Monday, finding some support from bargain hunters after 3 straight weeks of lower prices . June Brent rose 28 cents to $99.93 up from the lowest level since July 2012 on Wednesday. U.S. crude for June delivery was up 29 cents to $88.30 a barrel after a 3.6 % loss last week.

 

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INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR falls for 2nd day by 0.4% to 54.35 . 1-month volatility at 8.65% . 3-month forwards at 55.33 USD, vs. 55.15. 3-Month NDF at 55.12 vs. 54.93. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.750%. 1-year IRS at 7.25% . 5 year IRS at 7.00%.
FACTORS
• Technical: Breaking pivot support at 54.2858 with next 2 supports at 54.4254, 54.7454; pivot point at 54.1054; resistance at 53.9658, 53.7854, 53.4654. Pulling away from 50 DMA at 54.2379.
• Global funds increased holdings of debt by $630 m, to $35.25 b .
• China PMI fell to 50.5 in April from 51.6 in March, holding above the dividing line of 50.
• Purchases of existing homes in the U.S. fell to 4.92 m annual rate vs. 4.95 m in Feb.
• Markets will be shut tomorrow for the Mahavir Jayanti celebrations.
• Oil trade (all-time high ) 6.3 % of GDP in 2012,
• Gold trade (all -time high) 3 % of GDP.
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold rose 0.3 % to $1,430.52 . Gold rose for 5 days with a high of 1,439.30. Prices are 8.4 % below the $1,561.45 close on April 11, before a 2-day, 14 % drop through April 15. Gold June rose 0.5 % to
$1,428.30, gaining for a 4th day. Cash silver dropped 0.5 % to $23.324.
FACTORS
• Gold has fallen 15 % in 2013
• Gold touched a 2-year low of $1,321.95 on April 16
• U.S. Mint has sold 175,000 ounces in April, Vs. 62,000 ounces sold in March.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD did not reach 100 yen due to option positions . USD at 99.35 yen, down from Monday's high near 99.90.Traders said there is demand to buy dollar/yen on dips and a clear break above 100 will pave the way for a retest of the April 2009 high around 101.45.
FACTORS
• Yen Gains as China Manufacturing Growth Slows.
• CAD Gains Versus Most Major Peers as Crude Oil Rises.
• U.K. refuses Pound for Independent Scotland Citing Euro Lessons.
• GBP gains vs. Euro on opinion that U.K. avoided another "Recession".
• Yuan Advances to Near 19-Year High as PBOC Raises Reference Rate.

COPPER
Copper slipped on Tuesday and was near a 18-month low on sluggish prospects for global growth, with traders waiting for China's first economic report for the second quarter for clues on demand . 3-month had slipped 0.36 % to $6,910 extending losses from the previous session when it closed down 0.8 %

OIL
Brent crude rose for a 3rd session to top $100 on Monday, lifted by gains in the U.S. stock market. Brent June rose 74 cents to close at $100.39 , down from a high of $101.04. WTI May was up 75 cents to $88.76 after reaching a high of $89.13.