Forex Technical Analysis

[alex22]

nzd usd

time h4

pattern : crab - butterfly

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR climbs for 3rd day, rising 0.2% to 54.4762. 1-month volatility drops 1 bp to 7.7650% . 1-year IRS at 7.4275%; 5-year IRS at 7.2050% , 10 Year Benchmark at 7.913% .
FACTORS
• Technical: Pivot point at 54.64; resistance at 54.44, 54.305, 53.97; support at 54.775, 54.975, 55.31. rises above 200-DMA at 54.6327.
• Goldman Sachs recommends staying long USD/INR.
• Barclays: March trade deficit to improve to $ 13 b, from $15 on positive impact of INR fall .

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot at $1,575.16 up from $1,573.64 yesterday. Low of 0.2 % down to $1,570.67. Gold for June flat at $1,573.50. Spot silver flat at $27.345.
FACTORS
• Fed's. Bernanke "economy stronger now than 4 years ago, but far from where he would like ".
• ETF fell for a fifth day to 2,433.125 MT, the lowest level since Aug.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The JPY at multi-year lows versus the USD and EUR on Tuesday . USD up 99.60 with a 4 year high of 99.65 ( near 100) , EUR-JPY at 129.69 (Highest since January 2010.) .
FACTORS
• USD falls on Fed Bernanke's comment .
• U.S. economy's overall net worth is about 550 % of GDP in 2011.
• U.S. 1Q earnings Alcoa, 1Q adj. EPS of 11 c vs estimate 8 c, rev. $5.83 b vs est. $5.88 b.
• CHINA : Exports exceeded forecasts by at least 7.5 % in December, January and February.

COPPER
Copper climbed on Tuesday after signs of growth revival in Germany pushed up the EUR and buttressed the demand outlook for metals, while buying from top consumer China extended a steady albeit modest seasonal recovery. 3-month copper up 1.04 % to $7,527.50, extending gains of 0.6 % from the previous session.


OIL
Oil prices edged higher on Monday, lifted by gains in gasoline futures and strong selling of the spread between Brent crude and U.S. crude. Brent's premium to U.S. WTI futures settled at $11.30 , after narrowing to over $11 in afternoon trade, the lowest level since June.

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR strengthens 0.3% to 54.4250 , 1-Month at 7.8375% . 1-year IRS at 7.4150%; 5-year IRS at 7.1800% . 10 Year Benchmark at 7.875% .
FACTORS
• TECHNICAL: Breached pivot point at 54.5496 and first resistance at 54.4405, with next two resistances at 54.2959,54.0422; support at 54.6942, 54.8033, 55.057. INR is pulling away from lower Bollinger band at 54.7832
• Morgan Stanley expects CPI inflation to reach 10.9% to around 7% by March 2014
• RBS: Economy is currently working its way out of this debt accumulation.
• Government to sell 50b INR of 91-day T-bills and 50b INR of 182- day T- bills today.

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot at $1,587.48 vs. $1,585.35 yesterday. It rose as high as $1,590.46, (Highest since April 2). The session saw a high of $1,588.64 . Gold June flat at $1,586.20. Cash silver dropped 0.2 % to $27.94, paring yesterday's 2.5 % rally that was the biggest since November.
FACTORS
• Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust dropped to 1,200.37 MT yesterday ( Low since June 2011.)
• Gold ETF Holdings have lost 11 % in 2013 as prices fell 5.3 %.
• China unexpectedly posted a trade deficit in March.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
JPY at 4-year low with strategists expecting JPY to break below the 100-yen level. JPY was steady at 99.05 after seeing a low of 99.67 , its weakest level since May 2009.
FACTORS
• BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at a Yomiuri newspaper event on April 12.
• CHF-EUR Cap in Sight as Options Signal Strength.
• Gold priced in yen will reach a 33- year high.
• UK: GDP rose 0.1 % in the first quarter after falling 0.3 % in the last three months of 2012.
• FXCM biggest " Retail Currency Broker " With "Gain Capital Holding " purchase.
• Chinese imports grew more than estimated.
• HSBC starts direct trading between the yuan and AUD today.

COPPER
Copper fell on Wednesday from near 2-week highs hit in the previous session, while markets eyed China trade data for signs of a recovery in demand in the top metals consumer. 3- Month copper slipped 0.34 % to $7,598.75 after gaining 2.4 % in the previous session.

OIL
Brent crude oil futures rose on Tuesday, posting their biggest gain since late December as a weak USD and tame Chinese inflation data drew investors to commodities. U.S. crude oil prices also rose, reaching $94.48 during the session and briefly exceeding the 50-day moving average of $94.44.

 

[alex22]

time monthly

pattern ; inv ab=cd

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR strengthens 0.1% to 54.56. 1-Month volatility drops 9 bps to 7.7475% . 1-year IRS at 7.4025%; 5-year IRS at 7.1800%. 10 Year benchmark at 7.95.
FACTORS
• Morgan Stanley CPI inflation to moderate from 10.9% currently to around 7% by March 2014,
• Market shut for local holiday tomorrow

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold up 0.1 % to $1,560.75 after dropping 0.3 % to $1,553.65, (April 5 Low). Gold June at $1,560.30 after losing 1.8 % yesterday. Silver dropped 0.2 % to $27.58, following yesterday's 1.3 % decline.
FACTORS
• FOMC Minutes: US should begin tapering its QE later this year and stop it by year end
• Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell to 1,183.53 MT (May 2010 Low)
• Gold has dropped has dropped 6.8% 2013 as SPDR holdings shrank 12 %. 2013
• Cyprus was told "keep commitments to sell excess gold"
• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday cut forecasts for gold through 2014

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
JPY near 100, JPY at 99.79, having fallen to a low of 99.88. It has lost more than 7 % since the BOJ's radical stimulus program, which is bigger than the US QE.
FACTORS
• Yen Halts Decline Toward 100 as Japanese Sold Offshore Bonds.
• CAD and AUD gain as banks turn to High Yield Currencies.
• BOE's Miles Says 'Troubling' U.K. Outlook Justifies Stimulus.
• Australia: Unemployment rate climbs to 3-Year High.
• Kuroda Says BOJ Has Made All Possible Monetary Moves for Now.

COPPER
Copper was steady on Thursday, supported by growing optimism over China's economic revival after lending surged in March, but consumers were reluctant to chase prices that hit two-week highs earlier in the week given global oversupply. 3- Month copper flat at $7, after closing down 0.66 % the session before.

OIL
Brent crude oil prices fell on Wednesday dragged down by a steep sell-off in U.S. gasoline futures after a U.S.government report showed an unexpected build in domestic gasoline inventories. Brent May crude settled down 44 cents at $105.79 , having retreated from a session high of $106.47. Brent's May contract expires on Monday. U.S. May crude settled up 44 cents at $94.64 having swung from $93.40 to $94.82.

 

[tradingmarket]

My latest outlook on eur/usd daily chart

 

[dhiaperfumes]

why cannot see chart

 

[alex22]

gold

pattern: inv ab=cd- crab

 

[alex22]

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR weakens 0.3%, (April 4 low) to 54.6862. 1-month volatility increases 11 bps to 7.64%. 12-month NDFs drop 0.2% to 58.19. 1-year IRS at 7.3600%, 5-year IRS at 7.1350%. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.854%.
FACTORS
• Technical: Pivot at 54.5088; support 54.6525, 54.7800; 55.0514; resistance 53.9662, 54.2375, 54.3812; Touches 200-DMA 54.6170
• FORECAST: WPI (inflation) at 6.27% in March (3 Year Low)
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold spot down 3.9 % to $1,425.75 and was trading at $1,444.07 in Asian hours . Prices fell 5 % on April 12, taking losses to more than 20 % since the lifetime high in September 2011. Gold June down 5.3 % to $1,422.20. The contract had fallen 4.1 % on April 12. Silver fell 6.8 % to $24.24 (November 2010 Low)
FACTORS
• Cyprus may sell its gold holdings to cover possible losses from emergency loans.
• Gold ETF fell to 2,406.16 MT on April 12 down 6.9% in Quarter 1 , 2013
• Goldman cut its three-month target to $1,530 from $1,615
• Gold fell in spite of the USD Index, falling 0.3 %.
• George Soros cut his stake in the SPDR gold fund by 55 %
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
The USD bought 98.36 yen, above Friday's session low of 98.08 yen, though still well shy of a four-year peak of 99.95 yen struck on trading platform EBS on Thursday.
FACTORS
• United States they would ensure Japan's policies were not aimed at weakening its currency.
• Chinese GDP growth unexpectedly slows.
• UK : Ernst & Young-GDP will rise 0.6 %, compared with a January forecast of 0.9 %.
• Cyprus Issues 8th Decree on Capital Controls, Eases Some Rules.

COPPER
Copper edged up on Monday on technical buying, but was within reach of 8-month lows after poor data spurred fears the U.S. recovery may be slowing and dragging on the global economy, with attention turning to a raft of Chinese data later in the day. 3-month copper had risen to $7,435.50- paring losses from the previous session.



OIL
Brent crude oil fell to a 9-month low near $101 on Friday as a broad investor sell-off in commodities triggered a fall as much as $3 , but pared losses in afternoon New York trade .
Brent May fell more than $3 to hit a $101.09, the lowest prices since July. It recovered by more than $2 by the close, settling at $103.11 down $1.16 on the day. Brent has fallen by around 13 % since February as uncertainty about the strength of global demand has mounted.
U.S. crude for May delivery lost $2.22 to settle at $91.29 , up from an earlier low of $90.27. The May contract closed below its 200-day moving average of $91.51, a key technical indicator watched by traders.

 

[alex22]

eur usd

pattern : shark