FCPO : Info & Analysis

[Sony_Boy]

India Overtakes China as Biggest Palm Oil Buyer

India surpassed China as the world’s biggest buyer of palm oil as rising incomes increased demand for fried and processed foods and drought reduced domestic cooking oil production, according to a processor group. The country imported 7 million metric tons in 2009, more than China, data from the Mumbai-based Solvent Extractors’ Association of India shows. China’s imports jumped 23 percent to a record 6.4 million tons last year, the National Grain & Oils Information Center said yesterday.

Vegetable oil purchases by India will reach a record 9.4 million tons this year as an import-tax waiver reduces costs and the domestic crop declines, B.V. Mehta, executive director of the association, said in an interview yesterday. Increased imports may extend palm oil’s 57 percent rally last year and pare near-record inventories in Malaysia.

“India is adding 20 million people, or equivalent to an Australia, to its population every year,” Mehta said. “That’s driving demand, along with rising per-capita incomes.” India relies on overseas supplies to meet more than half its edible oil demand and last week sought bids to import 30,000 tons of palm oil. The commodity accounts for 80 percent of the country’s total cooking fat purchases. “India has been setting a record for vegetable oil imports year after year,” he said. “There are no signs of that trend being broken.”

Edible oil purchases may average 2 million tons in the first two quarters of the crop year that started Nov. 1, Mehta said Jan. 8. Imports in November were 712,677 tons, 37 percent more than a year earlier, according to the association. Data for December is scheduled to be released today.

China Imports

“China’s palm oil imports will continue to rise,” said Tommy Xiao, analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., by phone from Shanghai. Still, “the pace may be steady” after the government boosted stockpiles of vegetable oil and oilseeds to encourage domestic production and moderate price swings, he said. Import growth should exceed the 3 percent to 5 percent a year, a figure often used by official forecasters, he said. China, the world’s largest vegetable oil buyer, may have imported 9.3 million tons of all oils last year, the China National Grain and Oils Information Center, said Jan. 8. The spike last year in Indian imports stemmed partly from a drought and subsequent policies to boost domestic supplies, so it’s unclear whether that pace will be sustained this year, Xiao said.

Drought

A drought across half of India last year damaged rice, sugar cane and oilseed crops, pushing food inflation to near an 11-year high. Monsoon-sown oilseeds production in the 2009-10 season may drop 9 percent to 13.7 million tons, according to the Central Organization for Oil Industry and Trade, the country’s biggest group of processors. Palm oil for March delivery gained for the first time in six days, adding as much as 1.4 percent to 2,544 ringgit ($750) a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange. Inventories in Malaysia, the second-biggest producer, climbed 16 percent in December to 2.24 million tons. The record was 2.27 million tons in November 2008.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down; Jan. 1-15 Exports Disappoint

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Friday as export estimates failed to impress a market concerned about rising stock levels and production, said trade participants.

The benchmark March CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended down MYR40 at MYR2,490 a metric ton, below the key psychological level of MYR2,500, an indication more losses may be in store in the coming days.

Although cargo surveyors estimated a rise in exports on month for the Jan. 1-15 period, the rise wasn't deemed sufficient to offset rising stock levels and production, said traders. Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia's Jan. 1-15 palm oil exports up 9.8% on month at 669,758 tons. Another cargo surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., estimated exports during the period rose by 2.6% to 643,091 tons. Both estimates fell short of market expectations of 680,000 tons.

"Stock levels may hit a record high of 2.3 million tons this month, which would prompt CPO prices to test new support levels," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader. Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed that end-December palm oil stocks in Malaysia stood at 2.24 million tons, not far off the record high of 2.26 million tons set in November 2008. Production is expected to rise by 5% this month, said some traders. If stock levels continue to rise, CPO prices may test levels of MYR2,400-MYR2,450, traders said.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR20 lower at MYR2,490/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 75,701 lots, down from 76,191 lots traded Thursday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 23,897 lots of CPO were traded versus 22,080 lots Thursday.

 

[kraem]

bile la agaknye aku dpt merasa trade fcpo ni...

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Down; Off Lows On Crude Oil (18 Jan 2009)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended lower Monday, extending losses from previous trading sessions as crude oil prices slid further. Uncertainty over the strength in export demand for Malaysia's palm oil prevented palm oil prices from rising above the MYR2,500 a metric ton psychological level, said trade participants.

The new benchmark April CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR5 lower at MYR2,490/ton after tumbling to an intraday low of MYR2,439/ton.

Trade participants aren't expecting export numbers to rise much toward the end of January and many among them said it won't be sufficient to offset rising stock levels. "Demand from major buyers such as China, India and Europe hasn't been strong. As such, (palm) inventories may rise to 2.25 million tons at end-January," said a Singapore-based trading executive.

End-December palm oil stocks stood at 2.24 million tons, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed, close to a record high of 2.26 million tons set in November 2008. Most traders said the downward trend in prices will likely continue, with prices likely to ease to MYR2,400-MYR2,420 levels in the absence of supportive fundamental cues.

Toward the end of trade on BMD, prices came off their lows as crude oil rebounded on Globex. Light, sweet crude for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17 cents to $78.17 a barrel at 1000 GMT.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June was traded at $775/ton, said a Singapore-based broker. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR10 lower at MYR2,480/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 75,504 lots, down from 75,701 lots traded Friday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 21,937 lots of CPO were traded versus 23,897 lots Friday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Ends Mostly Steady; Exports, Weather Support (19 Jan 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended mostly steady Tuesday, supported by bad weather that may have slowed palm oil output in the key oil palm growing state in Sabah. But a decline in crude oil prices during Asian trading hours capped gains, said trade participants.

The benchmark April CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended unchanged at MYR2,490 a metric ton, off an intraday high of MYR2,512/ton.

Trade participants said the possibility of a rise in palm oil exports during the Jan. 1-20 period to around 927,000 tons prevented a sharp fall in prices. Wednesday, cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. will issue export data covering the first 20 days of January. For the same period in December, cargo surveyors estimated palm oil exports at 858,000-884,000 tons.

Rain and localized flooding in Sabah continue to affect production, which is expected to be lower in the first 20 days of January, said a trading executive in Kuala Lumpur. Sabah accounts for 40% of Malaysia's total palm oil output. "Prices aren't able to rise beyond today's high despite a likely drop in output as export demand hasn't risen much while lower crude oil induced selling pressure (on BMD)," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive.

Gains made in soyoil during Asian trading hours also provided some support to CPO futures, said a Singapore-based trading executive. March soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade rose as much as 45 points to 37.98 cents a pound in Asia. The March contract was last trading 31 points higher at 37.84 cents/pound.

In the cash market, palm olein for July/August/September was traded $780/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based trading executive. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR10 higher at MYR2,490/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 74,707 lots, down from 75,504 lots traded Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 17,488 lots of CPO were traded versus 21,937 lots Monday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Down; Exports Can’t Offset External Cues (20 Jan 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended lower Wednesday as exports rose, but not enough to offset expectations of a big global soybean crop and lower crude oil prices, trade participants said.

The benchmark April CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR46, or 1.8% lower, at MYR2,444 a metric ton after trading in a narrow range of MYR2,442-MYR2,472.

A possible record South American soybean crop and mediocre exports of palm oil during the Jan. 1-20 period served as bearish cues for the market. Global soybean production in the crop year that began Oct. 1 is tipped to rise to 253.4 million tons from 210.9 million tons last year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said recently.

The April contract fell close to an eight-week low after cargo surveyors released export data estimates. Traders and analysts said the data were within expectations, but a lack of other bullish cues kept trade sluggish and in negative territory. Intertek Agri Services pegged Malaysia's Jan. 1-20 palm oil exports at 924,003 tons, up 7.7% on month. Later in the day, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. said exports during the same period rose 6.9% on month to 945,311 tons.

The palm oil market also ignored bad weather in the key oil palm-producing state of Sabah, where monsoon rains and floods prevented transportation of palm fruits to mills and refineries. "In most parts of plantation areas in Sabah, the roads have been cut off due to the floods, which have prevented harvesters from collecting fruits," a senior trading executive said in Kuala Lumpur.

Overnight losses in soyoil, which shed 38 points on the Chicago Board of Trade to a 2 1/2 month low, and crude oil's fall during Asian trading hours prompted selling interest on the BMD. Light, sweet crude oil for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 82 cents at $78.20 a barrel at 1014 GMT.

In the cash market, palm olein for July/August/September was traded $770/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based trading executive. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR40 lower at MYR2,450/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 73,197 lots, down from 74,707 lots traded Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 21,280 lots of CPO were traded versus 17,488 lots Tuesday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Futures End Up; Rains May Trim Output, Stocks (21 Jan 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange rebounded Thursday after tumbling to their lowest levels in two months on fresh buying and short covering on cues from a recovery in crude oil and soyoil prices, trade participants said.

The benchmark April CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR44 higher at MYR2,488 a metric ton, after rising to an intraday high of MYR2,490/ton.

The contract opened lower on long liquidation, falling in early trade as much as MYR37 or 1.5% to MYR2,407/ton, its lowest intraday price since Nov. 20, but prices moved into positive territory and further extended gains during the afternoon session on a likely fall in production and palm inventories. If soyoil rises overnight, CPO prices could rise to MYR2,500 level in the next trading session, a Malaysia-based exporter said.

"Some investors are expecting exports around 1.3 million tons in January. That and the decline in output may push palm oil inventories to around 2.10 million tons, which is bullish for prices," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trading executive.

Continuing rains have slowed oil palm harvesting in Sabah, Sarawak, affecting output. Traders and growers estimate that output has dropped around 15%-16% so far this month. Lower output may reduce Malaysia's palm oil inventories towards the 2.10 million-ton level from 2.24 million tons at end-December, an analyst with a Singapore-based research firm said. Towards the end of trade on BMD, March soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading 48 points higher at 37.05 cents/pound.

In the cash market, palm olein for February was offered at $775/ton, April/May/June offered at $780/ton. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR50 higher at MYR2,500/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 73,121 lots, down from 73,197 lots traded Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 18,226 lots of CPO were traded versus 21,280 lots Tuesday.

 

[MAIDIN]

sebenarnye aku dok tertanya tanya dari haritu . ape sebenarnye fungsi dan objective dan manfaat article yg bro sony boy post tiap hari kat sini yg berbahasa english ni . aku dok cuba pahamkan tp still tak faham .

bro sony boleh terangkan secara detail tak ? maaf jika terpaksa tanya soalan ***** ni

 

[pg01]

Menarik..

Menarik jugak FCPO ni..kena pelan2 belajar ..pastu pelan2 kayuh..

 

[myonline]

bro sony,

any idea best time to buy?