FCPO : Info & Analysis

[Sony_Boy]

CPO futures --Palm oil board data to provide leads

OBSERVATIONS: The Kuala Lumpur CPO futures market went on a roller-coaster ride last week, rising at first to a 8-month high of RM2,726 before collapsing in late trade to a low of RM2,590. The actively-traded benchmarket third month-forward March 2010 contract settled last Friday at RM2,626 a tonne, down RM37 or 1.39 per cent over the week.

Significantly this market failed to penetrate on the upside of the RM2,725 long-term overhead resistance level. Even of greater significance was, based on the weekly price chart, the emitting of a technical reversal signal, suggesting that last October through December's RM2,000 to RM2,700 rally could well be over.

The catalyst which triggered the sudden turnaround in world edible oil markets as a whole was the collapse in China's Dalian commodity futures exchange last Thursday, which saw limit-down moves in soyabean and palm oil futures contracts. The reversals on the Dalian futures market were attributed to the Chinese authorities' decision to tighten up on credit and liquidity in China's monetary system and financial markets.

Liquidation of positions ahead of the weekend, not only to nail down profits but also to play safe ahead of the unveiling today by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) of its report on December trade data and the end-2009 position of palm oil stocks also was a factor in this market's fall.

Conclusion: All eyes will be on the MPOB report this week for leads on immediate market direction. However, the US bellwether soyabean oil futures and the Dalian futures exchange will likely dictate the pace and direction of the local market, with the MPOB report ameliorating or aggravating the pace and direction of price changes.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Down On Higher-Than-Expected Stocks (11 Jan 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended lower Monday as higher-than-expected stocks and weaker exports weighed heavily on prices, said trade participants.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR41 lower at MYR2,585 a metric ton, after moving in choppy trade between MYR2,572-MYR2,648/ton.

Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of December rose 16% on month to 2.24 million tons, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The increase surprised the market, which was expecting stocks to be around 2.0 million tons, said traders. Although the MPOB said output in December fell by 4.7% to 1.52 million tons, the fall wasn't enough to negate the bearish stock level and weaker exports in December, added the traders.

Exports in December fell 19.5% on month to 1.21 million tons, according to MPOB estimates. Cargo surveyors SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. and Intertek Agri Services also reported weak export estimates for Malaysian palm oil products during the Jan. 1-10 period. SGS estimated palm oil exports fell 13.3% on month to 346,462 tons, while Intertek reported a 15% fall to 351,818 tons. The market had expected an on-month decline of 15%. "There were no positive local cues, so participants started selling. Prices would have fallen even lower if not for strong crude oil futures," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

At 1015 GMT, light, sweet crude for February on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 81 cents higher at $83.56 a barrel.

In the cash market, palm olein for April/May/June was traded at $825/ton, while July/August/September was at $817.50/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based broker. Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR20 lower at MYR2,570/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 79,823 lots, up from 79,123 lots traded Friday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 24,564 lots of CPO were traded versus 19,934 lots traded Friday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down On High Stocks, Weak Exports (12 Jan 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Monday as high stock levels and weak exports prompted a downward price correction.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR29 lower at MYR2,556 a metric ton, after trading in a range of MYR2,541-MYR2,570/ton.

After rising to around MYR2,700 in recent days, prices were due for a downward correction, a Kuala Lumpur-based trader said. Indonesia exported hundreds of thousands of tons of crude palm oil to Malaysia late last year to avoid an increase in the export tax in January to 3% from zero previously, traders said. This resulted in higher-than-expected palm oil stocks in Malaysia.

Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of December were estimated to have risen by 16% from a month earlier to 2.24 million tons, according to estimates by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, higher than the 2.0 million tons expected by the market. Stock levels are likely to rise again this month, as exports are expected to remain weak, traders said.

"The market is looking for a consolidated level for prices. Support is seen at MYR2,550 but the market has not been too successful in preventing prices from trading lower," said another Kuala Lumpur-based trader. If crude oil and soyoil futures weaken in coming days, CPO prices might test the MYR2,500 level, he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release a report later today on soybean and corn output in the U.S. Data from the report will be closely monitored for cues in determining the direction of CPO prices, traders said. "The USDA report is likely to be bearish (due to a likely rise in its estimate of) soybean production and this may weigh on CPO prices as well," a Singapore-based trader said.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR30 lower at MYR2,540/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 80,342 lots, up from 79,823 lots traded Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 23,467 lots of CPO were traded versus 24,564 lots traded Monday.

 

[Sony_Boy]

CBOT Soy Outlook: Lower; USDA Data Adds To Near Term Bearish Theme (12 Jan 2010)

(Dow Jones)--Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are expected to start Tuesday's day session lower, extending the current market down turn on bearish production data from U.S. Department of Agriculture. CBOT soybean futures are seen starting 10 cents to 20 cents lower.

The increase in U.S. and South American production serves as the catalyst for initial weakness in the market, with a softer technical picture and worries of slowing export demand as the South American harvest gains momentum seen weighing on prices, analysts said. "The report is neutral to negative for soybeans as higher output is offset by increased demand," said Tim Hannagan, analyst with P.F.G. Best in Chicago. The production and ending stocks numbers are above the average analyst guess, making it tough to find support in the data.

However, "after a 60 cent break in prices recently, you have to wonder how much of the report is already priced into the market, and that opens the door for prices to rebound after the initial weakness wears off," Hannagan said. Nevertheless, without a dramatic reduction in U.S. supplies in the USDA reports, the near-term path of least resistance for soybean futures is lower," said Mike Zuzolo, president Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting.

U.S. Department of Agriculture projected 2009 U.S. soybean production at 3.361 billion bushels. U.S. production is the largest on record. The average yield per acre is estimated at a record high 44.0 bushels, 0.7 bushel above the Nov. 1 forecast and 4.3 bushels above last year's yield. Harvested area is up 2% from 2008 to a record 76.4 million acres. In November the USDA estimated the crop at 3.319 billion bushels using a yield of 43.3 bushels per acre.

Meanwhile, the USDA projected 2009-10 soybean ending stocks of 245 million bushels, down 10 million from the December estimate of 255 million. Analysts on average estimated ending stocks of 237 million bushels. Soybean exports were raised 35 million bushels to a record 1.375 billion led by strong sales and shipments to China and several other markets including Taiwan, Thailand, Egypt, and Canada. U.S. export sales have benefitted from tight competitor supplies resulting from last year's drought-reduced South American crop, USDA said in the report. The projected soybean crush was raised 15 million bushels to 1.710 billion reflecting increased soybean meal exports.

Meanwhile, despite the increased crush, soybean oil production was reduced due to a lower extraction rate. With use unchanged, soybean oil stocks are projected at 2.152 billion pounds, down 155 million from last month. Quarterly soybean stocks in the first quarter of the 2009-10 marketing year were estimated at 2.337 billion bushels as of Dec. 1, the USDA reported, below the average analyst estimate of 2.411 billion bushels.
A technical analyst said first resistance for March soybeans is seen at $10.20 and then at Monday's high of $10.32 3/4. First support is seen at Monday's low of $10.05 3/4 and then at $10.00.

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled lower Tuesday in cautious trade after a drop in the CBOT contract to almost $10 a bushel ahead of the release of USDA production forecasts. The DCE's benchmark September 2010 soybean contract settled CNY31, or 0.8%, lower at CNY4,004 a metric ton.

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Monday as high stock levels and weak exports prompted a downward price correction. The March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR29 lower at MYR2,556 a metric ton.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Asian Crude Palm Oil Ends Down On Rising Output, Stock Levels (13 Jan 2010)

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Wednesday due to concern that rising production and lower exports may drive stock levels to a new record high, trade participants said.

The benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR46 lower at MYR2,510 a metric ton, after trading in a range of MYR2,481-MYR2,525/ton. Weak crude oil and soyoil futures also weighed on CPO prices, traders said.

"The market started trading lower today initially on concerns that the most recent U.S. Department of Agriculture data (released Tuesday) showed an increase in soybean production (in the U.S)," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader. The increase would likely push up global vegetable oil supplies, and that would be bearish for CPO prices.

Data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed that end-December palm oil stocks in Malaysia stood at 2.23 million tons, not far off the record high of 2.26 million tons set in November 2008. "The concern is that production is expected to increase by 5% this month, but a rise in exports is uncertain, so stock levels might hit a new record high," a Singapore-based trader said. The next set of export data is due Friday, when cargo surveyors release their estimates of exports during Jan. 1-15.

At 1015 GMT, New York Mercantile Exchange light, sweet crude for February delivery was down 88 cents at $79.91 a barrel on Globex. March soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading in its electronic session 18 points lower at 38.45 cents a pound by the end on trade on the BMD.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR40 lower at MYR2,500/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 81,342 lots, up from 80,342 lots traded Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 24,850 lots of CPO were traded versus 23,467 lots traded Tuesday.

 

[myonline]

best gak info FCPO nie..
thankss for sharing..

 

[TT]

ade FBR kt cni? ade plan nk amik modul 14,16 dlm tahun ni..dengar susah benor hahaha

 

[Sony_Boy]

ade FBR kt cni? ade plan nk amik modul 14,16 dlm tahun ni..dengar susah benor hahaha

boleh cuba kampung seblah..

 

[Sony_Boy]

CBOT Soy Outlook:Lower; Downturn Continues On Fundamentals (13 Jan 2010)

Carryover selling from Tuesday's sharp declines and bearish fundamental outlooks are seen weighing on Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures to start Wednesday's day session. CBOT soybean futures are seen starting 3 cents to 5 cents lower. In overnight trade, January soybeans were 5 1/2 cents lower at $9.64, and March soybeans were 2 1/4 cents lower at $9.75 3/4.

The combination of a large U.S. crop coupled with record projected South American production headed to the world market provides a bearish backdrop to keep pressure on prices, said Don Roose, president U.S. Commodities. The bottom line is there will be ample world supplies to cover end user needs and with concerns about waning Chinese demand, it will be tough to rally prices, he added.

China, the world's biggest soybean consumer, may have overbooked its early needs and might not be shopping any time soon. If that's the case both the U.S. and Brazil would suffer as global supplies would be ample. Further, a tighter monetary policy for the Asian nation, makes it more expensive for importers to buy. Spillover weakness from an expected sharply lower start in corn futures is seen damping bullish enthusiasm as well.

Now that the market has gotten past the January crop report, it's possible soybean prices could continue to slide if the South American harvest is unimpeded and the U.S. export pace drops as expected, analysts said. However, with futures prices already slipping 83 cents in the past week and the potential for end user and index fund buying to emerge during the session, downside risks maybe limited, a CBOT floor analyst said.

A technical analyst said the next upside technical objective for March soybeans is pushing and closing prices above major psychological resistance at $10.00. The next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $9.55 3/4.

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled lower Wednesday due to concerns that the central bank is likely to issue more tightening measures after raising the reserve requirement ratio for banks. The benchmark September 2010 soybean contract settled CNY87, or 2.2%, lower at CNY3,917 a metric ton.

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended lower Wednesday due to concern that rising production and lower exports may drive stock levels to a new record high, trade participants said. The March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR46 lower at MYR2,510 a metric ton.

 

[Sony_Boy]

Crude Palm Oil Ends Up On Likely Higher Exports

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended higher Thursday due to speculation that exports during the period Jan. 1-15 may rise from a month earlier, trade participants said.

The benchmark March CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended a volatile session up MYR20 at MYR2,530 a metric ton. Prices swung between positive and negative territory in a range of MYR2,499-MYR2,544/ton.

Traders expect Malaysia's Jan. 1-15 palm oil exports at 680,000 tons. Estimates from cargo surveyors should be released Friday. During the same period last month, cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated exports at 609,874 tons. Another cargo surveyor, SGS (Malaysia) Bhd., estimated exports at 626,934 tons. The increase expected in exports is positive for CPO prices, as it will help to absorb rising inventory and output levels. Market participants had earlier feared that exports would continue to fall.

Thursday's gains in CPO prices was also attributed in part to a technical correction after six consecutive days of losses. "There is much support at MYR2,500 and despite repeated breaches of that level over the last few days in intraday trade, the market has always ended above MYR2,500," a Kuala Lumpur-based trader said. "If the cargo surveyors release data that is near or above the 680,000 tons expected by the market, CPO prices will hold above MYR2,500 and will likely test resistance at MYR2,550-MYR2,580," he said.

Cash CPO for prompt delivery was offered MYR10 higher at MYR2,510/ton. Open interest on the BMD was 76,191 lots, down from 81,342 lots traded Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons. A total of 22,080 lots of CPO were traded versus 24,850 lots traded Tuesday.