Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Oil prices fluctuate amid geopolitical tensions and oversupply projections

The XTI/USD (WTI) oil price reflects market dynamics, which are currently in a tug-of-war between short-term geopolitical tensions and projections of structural oversupply in 2026. Last week, oil prices drew a bearish candle with a small body and relatively long wicks at the top and bottom of the candle. Price volatility last week tended to be between the middle and upper band lines.

The current WTI crude oil price is in the range of 60.70-62.80. The market is experiencing corrective pressure after attempting to break through the strong resistance level of 65.00 last week.

Rumors that several OPEC+ countries are considering increasing production next April are weighing on prices. Furthermore, the EIA projects a significant global surplus throughout 2026, related to increasing stock inventories due to stock builds in several countries, including China. This indicates bearish medium-term fundamentals if demand is weak.

US investment reports show a significant increase in inventories, which has recently put pressure on prices, indicating short-term oversupply.

Tensions in the Middle East, including the US-Iran issue, continue to impose a risk premium on oil prices. Threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route for 20% of the world's oil, often drive prices higher due to concerns about supply disruptions. Uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as political dynamics in the region, have helped to contain price declines, even amid weak fundamental data.

Factors to consider for oil price catalysts, such as weekly API and EIA data, are important. Declining inventories typically boost prices, while rising inventories can put downward pressure on prices. Demand indicators, such as US gasoline consumption data and EIA projections, are also important. Large changes in demand can impact inventories.

OPEC+ production decisions remain a major factor influencing prices. Any sign of increased production could depress prices, while any announcement of a tightening could spike prices.

Any escalation in geopolitical conflict, such as the US-Iran conflict, could impose a significant risk premium on oil prices in the short to medium term.

The movement of the US Dollar Index (DXY) is also of concern because XTIUSD is priced in USD. A strengthening dollar tends to depress oil prices, while a weakening dollar can support them.

This week's oil price forecast: nearest support is around $60.50, with the next support target around $55.00. Nearest resistance is around $65.30, with the next resistance target around $66.60. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is currently near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an upward channel; the price is well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 68, and the VB Low is at 45. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 56 within an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 52, with a downward channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line points to 57 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel, with the bands widening, indicating a sideways trend and slightly increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing a flat channel, and the price is below this line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is pointing to 63, and its VB Low is pointing to 38. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line point to 50 with a downward channel, indicating the price is in a neutral position with potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is pointing to 41 with a downward channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line point to 39 with a downward channel, indicating a fading downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver is trending bearish in the short term amidst strong long-term fundamentals.

After a sharp decline at the end of January, silver has been fluctuating in a consolidation phase. Yesterday, silver prices formed a small bearish candle with a short lower wick, indicating low volatility at the start of this week. The price formed a high of 77,901, a low of 74,514, and a close of 76,581.

Fundamentally, silver is being pulled by two opposing forces. US inflation data released yesterday for January showed a figure of 2.4%, down from 2.7%. Despite cooling inflation, the market reacted with a moderate strengthening of the US dollar index (DXY), as the Fed is expected to be in no hurry to cut interest rates anytime soon, holding rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range. A more stable dollar makes non-yielding assets, such as silver, temporarily less attractive.

2026 is expected to be the sixth consecutive year in which silver experiences a structural deficit. Demand from the industrial sector, including AI manufacturing, data centers, solar panels, and automotive, remains high, while mining production struggles to keep pace. This provides a strong price floor to keep silver from falling too far.

Today marks the post- Presidents' Day holiday in the US, so market volatility is expected to increase when the New York market reopens. However, China is celebrating the Lunar New Year holiday, which could significantly impact silver movements. China is one of the world's largest consumers of silver, both for jewelry and industrial purposes. With the closure of mainland Chinese markets, trading volumes in the Asian session have been drastically reduced. Consequently, silver is expected to move within a narrow range due to the loss of significant participation. However, this thin liquidity also poses the risk of sudden volatility if major news comes out of the US, as even small orders can move prices significantly beyond normal levels.

The market is currently entering a calm consolidation phase. Analysts believe the movement is dominated by profit-taking by speculators who have been trading since early February, taking advantage of the quiet Asian market.

With today's Lunar New Year holiday, silver is likely to remain depressed below of the $80.00 level throughout the day without any further boost from Chinese demand. Silver's movement is expected to follow the US dollar's trend completely without any disruption from Asian sentiment.

Silver's movement today is projected to have the nearest support at around $74.11, with the next support target at around $65.10. The nearest resistance is around $80.00, with the next resistance target at around $86.20. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

Silver's movement on the daily timeframe is currently hovering between the middle and lower band lines. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with wide spacing, indicating a consolidation phase with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) between the middle and lower bands is drawing an upward channel; prices below the line indicate a possible downtrend transition. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment for the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 85, and the VB Low is pointing at 39. The 46-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line points to 62 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, indicating potential downside.

The RSI Price Line points to 44 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line points to 45 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAGUSD H4

Silver price movement on the H4 timeframe is between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel, with narrow band spacing indicating a sideways market and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, with prices below the line indicating a weak downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 58, and the VB Low is at 35. The 53-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 46 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 40 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 40 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

NZD/USD Ahead of RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Over the past six days, the NZD/USD commodity currency pair has been stable within the range of 0.60042-0.60759. Yesterday, the pair drew a bullish candle with a relatively long low at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.60504, a low of 0.60042, and a close of 0.60489.

Today is predicted to be crucial for the NZD/USD. Market focus will be on the New Zealand interest rate decision and important data releases from the United States.

Today, the RBNZ will announce its monetary policy statement and interest rate. The current RBNZ interest rate is at 2.25%. Market consensus expects the RBNZ to hold rates at that level. Although inflation in New Zealand rose to 4.6%, the unemployment rate soared to its highest level in a decade at 5.4%. The RBNZ faces a dilemma: it wants to control inflation while supporting the still-weak economic recovery.

If the RBNZ signals a hawkish stance or plans to raise interest rates this year, this could support the NZD's strength. Conversely, if the focus is on economic management to reduce unemployment, the NZD could weaken.

In the US, the US dollar is currently in a strong position due to geopolitical uncertainty related to US talks with Iran and the cautious stance of Fed officials. The market will await the release of the Fed's meeting minutes. Investors are also watching the release of US Industrial Production and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data to determine whether US inflation is truly under control or remains stuck above 2%.

Today's market is expected to be in wait-and-see mode, awaiting the RBNZ's announcement before taking large positions. The RBNZ Governor's statement will be in focus. If they are optimistic about the 2% inflation target, the NZD will receive support. On the other hand, the FOMC minutes could also impact the NZDUSD pair.

As a commodity currency, the NZD is influenced by the performance of raw material exports. According to the latest data as of February 2026, exports are in a recovery phase but are overshadowed by global price volatility. For the first time, New Zealand's total export value reached NZD 80 billion, representing an increase of approximately 14% compared to the previous year. Dairy products continue to contribute significantly more than other products.

New Zealand relies heavily on China as its trading partner. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy, particularly in the property sector, negatively impacts the NZD.

Technically, the forecast price range for the NZDUSD is 0.6010-0.5995, with resistance at 0.6065-0.6080. This forecast could be incorrect.

NZDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, NZDUSD is slightly above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel. Prices are well above this line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 78, and the VB Low is at 41. The 37-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 60 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 61 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 62 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD is near the upper band. A Bollinger Band squeeze has formed on this timeframe, indicating low market volatility and sideways movement within a narrow range within the bands.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price above the line, indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 63, and the VB Low is at 42. The 21-point difference reflects the volatility values on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 51, with a channel sloping upwards across the TSL, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 47 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

AUD/USD under pressure after FOMC minutes

One of the commodity currency pairs, AUD/USD, is exhibiting interesting dynamics due to the divergence in monetary policy between the RBA and the Fed and the release of Australian employment data today. Yesterday, AUD/USD drew a bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 0.70855, a low of 0.70350, and a close of 0.70386.

Investors appear to be more cautious ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes and Australian employment data today. The main sentiment focused on the AUD/USD pair today is driven by the RBA's hawkish stance, which contrasts with dovish expectations from the Fed.

The RBA recently raised interest rates to 3.85% in early February due to stubborn inflation. Employment change data is released today, with expectations for an increase of 20,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of around 4.2%. If the employment data is stronger than expected, the AUD will likely receive significant buying support.

The US released the FOMC meeting minutes, which showed that the Fed is considering one to three interest rate cuts in 2026 due to US inflation declining to 2.4%. This has put general selling pressure on the USD.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered global market volatility, but market focus remains on the yield differential, which currently favors the AUD. Fundamentally, the AUD/USD pair is expected to be bullish today. The combination of the RBA's softening stance is creating a positive environment for the AUD.

The US dollar index is currently seen in a short-term recovery phase after experiencing a significant decline at the end of the year. The DXY is currently trading around 97.728, up from a low of 97.118. The FOMC minutes released early this morning confirmed that the Fed decided to temporarily pause its interest rate cutting cycle after three consecutive cuts. US interest rates are currently in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

The market is cautiously awaiting the fourth-quarter GDP data, which will be released on Friday. US economic growth is expected to slow to 3%, which could put further pressure on the USD if the results are worse than expected.

Significantly, short positions against the US dollar are currently at their most pessimistic level in 14 years. Historically, such extreme conditions often trigger sudden price reversals if US economic data suddenly strengthens.

AUDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, AUDUSD is slightly above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and weakening volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 80, and the VB Low is pointing at 51. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 51 with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 64 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

AUDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDUSD is near the lower band, attempting to break the line. A Bollinger Band squeeze appears on this timeframe, with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market and relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a slight upward channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend transition. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 70, and the VB Low is pointing at 35. The 35-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 52 with a downward channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 43, with a downward channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 47 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

AUD/JPY rose to 109.764 amid RBA's hawkish stance

The AUD/JPY cross pair has slowly recovered for four consecutive days after last week's correction. Yesterday, the AUD/JPY pair formed a bullish candle with a short upper shadow. The price formed a high of 109.764, a low of 108.854, and a close of 109.388.

The AUD/JPY pair exhibits an interesting dynamic between Australia's renewed monetary tightening and Japan's policy normalization. At its meeting in early February 2026, the RBA surprisingly raised the interest rate to 3.85%. This was triggered by inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025, which surged above expectations, reaching 3.4%-3.6%. The RBA is expected to raise the interest rate again to 4.1% in May 2026, as the economy continues to show strong demand pressures.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, last December. Markets are currently monitoring the leadership transition in Japan under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Her landslide election victory has boosted the yen, as markets anticipate more consistent policy normalization, despite concerns about fiscal expansion.

The recently released Australian jobs report remained solid, keeping the unemployment rate below the low of around 4.3%. This provides the green light for the RBA to remain aggressive.

In Japan, there is a bank holiday today in some regions due to Statehood Day, which may result in slightly lower trading volumes in the Asian session. Meanwhile, the 10-year Japanese Yen (JGP) bond yield is stable in the 2.2%-2.3% range, anchoring the JPY's strength.

AUD factors to pay attention to include the RBA minutes and statements from RBA officials. The release schedule for employment, inflation, CPI, and retail sales is also expected. Regarding global risk sentiment, AUD/JPY is a sensitive pair if geopolitical tensions escalate, as investors tend to flock to the safe-haven JPY.

As a commodity currency, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is influenced by the commodity market. This month, the commodity market has experienced significant bullish momentum, providing a strong structural boost for the AUD. High commodity export prices help increase purchasing power in the Australian economy, which naturally strengthens the AUD exchange rate. If the commodity price index continues to grow above 10% annually, the AUD's uptrend is likely to continue.

AUDJPY is forecast to be optimistic but cautious today. The nearest support is around 108.80, with the next support target around 108.45. The nearest resistance is around 109.80, with the next resistance target around 110.15. This forecast could be incorrect.

AUDJPY D1

The Australian dollar against the yen is currently above the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger bands have drawn an ascending channel with fairly wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band has drawn an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, which has drawn an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing to 73, and the VB Low is pointing to 54. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing to 63 with a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing to 58 with a channel sloping upwards, crossing the TSL, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing to 55 with a horizontal descending channel, indicating a sideways market.

AUDJPY H4

The AUDJPY cross pair is below the upper band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating a sideways trend with an uptrend bias. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 61, and its VB Low indicator is at 34. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 47 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 58 within a flat ascending channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

WTI oil prices hit a record high of $66.00 amid US-Iran tensions

WTI oil prices are showing strong bullish sentiment due to a combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and sudden supply tightening in the United States. WTI oil prices reached a high of $66.98 on Friday and then closed at $66.30.

The escalation of US-Iran geopolitical tensions is the main driver of the oil price increase. President Trump has given Iran a 10-15 day deadline to reach a new nuclear deal. The US military buildup in the Middle East is increasing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for 20% of the world's oil supply.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict also remains in the spotlight. The recent failure of peace negotiations in Geneva has prolonged uncertainty over Russian energy supplies, adding another floor to global oil prices.

Tensions between the US and Iran have reached their highest point in years. Recent updates suggest the situation is on the verge of an open military confrontation. The US has deployed dozens of fighter jets and B-2 bombers to bases in the region. The aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford are already on alert in the Arabian Sea.

Iran, through the IRGC, has asserted that any attack in the region will be retaliated with missile strikes on US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain. If war does break out, oil prices could spike due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest EIA report added a boost to oil prices. The latest EIA data showed an unexpected decline in US commercial crude oil inventories of 9.0 million barrels. This figure was well below market expectations, which had previously predicted a stock increase. This decline indicates strong domestic demand amid declining production.

OPEC+ remains committed to delaying production increases until the end of the first quarter of 2026. This prevents the global market supply surplus that EIA analysts had previously feared.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is currently hovering near the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a descending channel, signaling a longer-term trend transition.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 68, and its VB Low is at 47. The 21-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 58 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 63 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 56 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

XTIUSD H4

Oil prices on the H4 timeframe are hovering below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is near the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 79, and the VB Low is pointing at 32. The 47-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 55 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 67 with a descending channel sloping across the TSL from above, indicating a fading downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 70 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices have rebounded amid US-Iran tensions.

Gold prices have recently demonstrated strong bullish momentum. Gold has successfully broken through key psychological levels and set a new record. Yesterday, gold prices drew a bullish candle with virtually no shadows. The price traded to a high of $5225, a low of $5097, and closed at $5224.

Gold market sentiment is driven by economic policy uncertainty, physical scarcity, and geopolitical risks. The market is currently monitoring the Fed's policy transition. Although interest rates are in the 3.50%-3.75% range, inflation data has cooled to a four-year low of 2.4%, strengthening expectations of future rate cuts.

A report from S&P Global & Tavi Costa indicates that no major gold deposit discoveries will be made in 2024-2025, raising concerns about a supply crunch. Mining companies are focusing more on expanding existing mines than exploring new ones due to rising operating costs.

The World Gold Committee (WGC) reported in early February that total global gold demand for 2025 will reach a historic high of 5,002 tons. This surge is driven by massive accumulation by central banks and physical investment demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The market is currently focused on the US-Iran tensions. Trump's speech is expected to provide clues regarding tariffs and foreign relations, particularly the US-Iran nuclear talks. Relations between the two countries are currently at a crucial point, with diplomacy and military threats running parallel.

Iran and the US are scheduled to return to the negotiating table on Thursday, February 26, 2026, in Geneva, considered a last-ditch effort to de-escalate the conflict. Iran has expressed a willingness to compromise, but has rejected any interim agreement. They are demanding the full lifting of economic sanctions and guarantees of their sovereignty. Trump has threatened to take more severe military action if the US fails to agree to these terms.

This uncertainty is fueling gold, with the market currently pricing in the worst-case scenario. If the negotiations fail, gold prices could potentially surge due to market panic. On the other hand, if there is an agreement, it is predicted that there will be massive profit-taking.

Aside from geopolitical risks, today the market will await the PPI release, which could trigger volatility in the US dollar.

Gold is currently priced at around $5,227, with the RSI at overbought levels. The nearest support is estimated at $5,153, with the next support target at $5,052. The nearest resistance is estimated at $5,266, with the next resistance target at $5,320. This forecast could be incorrect.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a slightly ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating a bullish trend and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band has drawn an ascending channel, with the price well above it, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 85, and the VB Low is pointing at 44. The 41-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 64 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 59 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 55 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the gold price is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, with the price above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 73, and its VB Low is at 34. The 39-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 73 within an ascending channel, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 71 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/JPY hovers around 110,000 ahead of Australian CPI data

Market sentiment for the AUD/JPY, based on a monthly timeframe, tends to be bullish. The long-term uptrend in AUD/JPY began in early January 2025 after the price touched support at 86,045. Yesterday, the price drew a bullish candle with a small shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 110,435, a low of 108,971, and a close of 109,992.

The AUD/JPY currency pair is in a fairly dynamic phase, with pressure tending to be mixed to bullish, or tending to strengthen. Policy divergence between Australia and Japan remains the main driver of this pair. The RBA recently raised interest rates to 3.85% in early February 2026. CPI data released this morning showed inflation in January remained above target, reinforcing market expectations that the RBA may raise interest rates again in May.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen weakened following the Prime Minister's statement rejecting further interest rate hikes. Japan's interest rate is currently stuck at 0.75%, far below Australia's. This yield gap has triggered a carry trade, where investors borrow low-interest yen to buy high-interest Australian dollars.

Global market sentiment tends to be positive or risk-on, which has historically favored the AUD as a commodity currency over the safe-haven JPY.

Referring to existing data, today's fundamental analysis favors the AUD. As long as tonight's US economic data doesn't trigger sudden global concerns, the Yen is likely to remain under pressure. The next major focus will be tomorrow's release of Australian Capital Expenditure data, as it could provide further confirmation of the strength of the Australian domestic economy.

Technically, the AUDJPY price is moving above the 100-day EMA, indicating the long-term upward bias remains intact. Today's price range is expected to move volatilely in the 109.15-110.45 range. The nearest support is estimated at 109.15, with the next support target at 108.50. The nearest resistance is around 110.15, with the next resistance target at 110.45. This forecast could be incorrect.

AUDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, AUDJPY is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and weakening volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with prices well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 72, and the VB Low is at 53. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 63 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 58 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 58 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

AUDJPY H4

AUDJPY is hovering near the upper band line on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a slightly ascending channel with slightly wider band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and rising volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing a flat channel, with prices above the line indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 65, and its VB Low is at 45. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 55 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 60 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 57, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY extends recovery this week

The GBP/JPY cross pair was quite interesting yesterday. The pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow, extending the previous day's gains. GBP/JPY is currently trading at a high of 212.112, a low of 209.902, and a close of 211.933.

The current fundamentals of the GBP/JPY cross pair indicate varying pressures on both currencies, with GBP tending to be more fragile than JPY.

GBP is under pressure from internal economic data. The latest report showed the UK unemployment rate hit a five-year high. This has fueled speculation that the Bank of England will soon cut interest rates.

The UK's economic growth is also slowing. Fourth-quarter UK GDP data fell to 1.2% year-on-year, reinforcing bearish sentiment on the GBP amid expectations of looser monetary policy.

Domestic issues in the UK concerning Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer's leadership have added to market uncertainty about the GBP's stability. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is currently facing an internal vote of no confidence in his party. Many members of parliament feel his authority has been undermined and are considering who should replace him.

Starmer's relationship with US President Donald Trump is also feared to be strained, with reports that Starmer refused to allow the US to use bases like Diego Garcia to attack Iran. This sparked criticism from the opposition, worsening relations with Donald Trump, who is in his second term. Tensions over the Chagos Islands deal have also resurfaced amid the US's tough stance on the sovereignty of the strategic region.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen rebounded due to risk-off sentiment. The weakening of risk assets and the correction in global stock markets in recent days have tended to shift interest back to the yen as a safe haven.

Although the JPY weakened earlier in the week, market focus shifted to the Bank of Japan's policy of restricting its purchases of government-issued bonds (JGBs), providing some support for the yen's strengthening against cross-currency pairs like the GBP.

Comments from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding concerns about the pace of interest rate hikes by the BoJ Governor, which reduced expectations of faster rate hikes, tended to weaken the JPY.

GBPJPY D1

The GBPJPY cross pair on the daily timeframe has currently crossed the middle band from the downside. The Bollinger Bands have drawn a sloping downward channel with wide band spacing, indicating slowing bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band has drawn a flat upward channel, with the price above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band and has drawn an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 70, and the VB Low is pointing at 36. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 53 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 53 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 44 with an upward channel, indicating an uptrend.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, the GBPJPY cross pair is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a curved channel to the upside, with prices well above the line indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 70, and its VB Low is at 41. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 55 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 74 within an ascending channel, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 68 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Canadian Dollar Strengthens Awaiting GDP Data Release

The Canadian dollar closed yesterday at 1.36802, strengthening slightly after reaching 1.37124. The USD/CAD candlestick shaped a bullish candle with a small body and long shadows at the top and bottom of the candlestick, reflecting high volatility due to today's crucial data releases from Canada and the United States.

Today is GDP day for Canada. Statistics Canada releases fourth-quarter GDP and December GDP data. The Canadian economy is projected to grow moderately at around 1.12%-1.3% for 2026. If GDP data is lower than expected, pressure on the Canadian dollar could increase as the market begins to consider the potential for future interest rate cuts by the BoC. Although the interest rate is currently held at 2.25%. Conversely, strong GDP data could strengthen the Canadian dollar, which could naturally cause the USD/CAD to decline.

In the US, focus will be on the release of the January PPI data. This is a leading indicator of consumer inflation (CPI). If the PPI remains high, it provides a reason for the Fed to maintain high interest rates. The Fed's current interest rate is at 3.5%-3.75%. High interest rates naturally support a strengthening USD. Other data, such as the Chicago PMI, which is a manufacturing indicator, will also provide insight into the health of the US economy at the start of the year.

As a major oil exporter, the Canadian dollar is also influenced by the movement of WTI oil prices. Currently, oil prices are fluctuating around $66 per barrel due to the Iran-US nuclear tensions. Rising oil prices due to Middle East supply tend to support the CAD, which puts downward pressure on USDCAD.

On the other hand, declining Canadian factory sales and concerns about the extension of the UMSCA could put downward pressure on the CAD, which could push USDCAD higher. Uncertainty about trade policy and domestic economic data is driving risk-off sentiment, which generally strengthens the USD relative to commodity-based currencies.

USDCAD is currently below the 200-day moving average (EMA), with the nearest support estimated at 1.3630, with the next support target at 1.3580. The nearest resistance is around 1.3710, with the next resistance target at 1.3750. This estimate could be wrong.

USDCAD D1

The Canadian dollar is hovering near the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a channel sloping upwards, and the band spacing is narrowing, reflecting bullish sentiment and declining volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the upper band, drawing a descending channel, with the price slightly below the line, indicating a weak downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is above the upper band, drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 62, and its VB Low is at 28. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 45 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater weighting of bears than bulls.

The RSI Price Line is at 50 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 51 with a sloping ascending channel, indicating a weakening uptrend.

USDCAD H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is moving near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel, and narrow band spacing indicates a sideways market and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 64, and the VB Low is at 45. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 52, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 47 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.