Daily Analysis Forex Mix

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Oil prices are in a cautious bullish phase.

Oil price volatility increased last week as global geopolitical tensions escalated. On Friday, WTI prices fell as low as 63.46, then closed higher at 65.46. Oil prices had just recorded their best price since July 2023, but were under pressure from the prospect of abundant supplies in 2026.

Concerns about military escalation between the United States and Iran were the main driver of price increases. The market was concerned that these tensions would disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway for 20 million barrels of oil per day.

US President Donald Trump warned Iran to reach a nuclear deal or face military action. Trump stated on Wednesday that the US ships he had ordered to the region were ready to carry out their mission, swiftly and violently, if necessary. Iran responded by threatening to retaliate against the US, Israel, and those who support them.

Another fundamental factor, President Trump's announcement of new import tariffs against several trading partners, has created uncertainty. On the one hand, tariffs could slow the economy, but on the other hand, the threat of supply disruptions from major producers places a risk premium on oil prices.

While geopolitical tensions support rising oil prices, analysts are projecting a potential oversupply of 0.75 to 3.5 million barrels per day in 2026. This limits an overly aggressive price rally in the long term. EIA data and projections indicate that global supply will likely exceed demand throughout 2026. Many major banks and official institutions forecast oil prices in the $50-$60 range this year.

The recent weakening of the US dollar has provided room for USD-pegged commodities, including oil, to remain competitive in the global market. The US Dollar Index (DXY) briefly fell to a low of 95.551 before rebounding to 97.147.

Production disruptions in Kazakhstan due to infrastructure issues also helped reduce actual market supply, supporting prices. Some analysts believe demand from China and geopolitical factors could keep prices from falling too low.

The daily range for WTI crude oil is estimated to be between $58 and $66 per barrel. The nearest support is around $63.64; a breakout would target the next support at $62.10. The nearest resistance is around $66.11; a breakout would target the next resistance at $67.50. This forecast could be wrong amidst market dynamics.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price on the daily timeframe is currently outside the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving apart, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a curved channel to the upside, while prices well above the line indicate a strong bullish trend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a descending channel that is fading, indicating easing bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing 68, and the VB Low is showing 36. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing 52 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is showing 72 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is showing 64 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

The WTI oil price on the H4 timeframe is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel, with the band spacing beginning to narrow, indicating bullish sentiment and fading volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an ascending channel. The price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band is drawing a slightly ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 76, and its VB Low is at 50. The 16-point difference refflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 63 with an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential upside.

The RSI Price Line is at 60 with a downward-curving channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 62 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

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AUD/USD Corrects Sharply Ahead of RBA Interest Rate Announcement

The Australian dollar briefly strengthened to around 0.70940 amid significant US dollar weakness at the end of January. However, volatile markets have caused the pair to correct sharply to a low of 0.69084. As a commodity pair, the AUD/USD exhibits a contrasting dynamic between domestic monetary policy and U.S. global sentiment.

Today's market focus will be entirely on the RBA interest rate announcement. After the fourth-quarter inflation data released at the end of January remained strong, the market is speculating on a hawkish stance. If the RBA raises interest rates or signals a future rate increase, the Australian dollar could strengthen significantly.

On the other hand, the USD gained renewed momentum after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, to replace Jerome Powell. The market perceives Warsh as a likely supporter of a strong dollar policy or more measured tightening, which fueled the USD rally late last week.

As a country reliant on commodity exports, the Australian dollar is correlated with commodity markets. Gold and silver prices experienced extreme volatility in early February, falling from their peaks. As commodity currencies, falling metal prices could limit the AUD's upside potential, despite domestic support.

The USD stabilized overall after its recent sharp decline, which was its weakest yearly decline, but then stabilized ahead of the Fed meeting. The DXY is currently trading at 97.574, having rebounded in the four days after the price drop to 95.551.

The market is currently predicting a possible RBA rate hike from 3.60% to 3.85%. The RBA's press conference following the decision is also important as it provides additional information about Australia's economic outlook.

Today, the US will also release important news that could have a significant impact on the AUD/USD pair. The JOLTS data, related to US job openings, could be a catalyst for the US dollar. Market expectations are for an increase in job openings compared to the previous revision.

The AUD/USD price range is estimated to be within the immediate support range of 0.6910, which will act as a resistance level if the RBA performs below expectations. The next support range is 0.6950, which is a crucial boundary for the medium-term trend. The nearest resistance range is 0.7010 if the trend is bullish. The next resistance target is 0.7090, the January high.

AUD/USD D1

The Australian dollar is currently below the upper band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands continue to draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 80, and the VB Low is at 49. The 31-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 64 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 67 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 78 with a horizontal channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

AUDUSD H4

The Australian dollar is currently near the lower band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a downward-curving channel with wide band spacing, indicating a potential trend transition and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band is drawing an upward channel, while the price is near the line, indicating a weakening uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 89, and its VB Low is 42. The 47-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 65 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 46 with a horizontal channel, indicating a fading downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 45 with a horizontal channel, indicating a fading downtrend.

 

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New Zealand Dollar Recovers Amid US Dollar Pullback

NZDUSD, one of the commodity currency pairs, recovered on Tuesday, February 3rd, amid a US dollar pullback. NZDUSD drew a bullish candle with almost no shadow, forming a high of 0.60603, a low of 0.59911, and a close of 0.60599.

This rebound reflects a pause in the US dollar's appreciation, which supports the New Zealand dollar's strength as a major currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently down to 97.354 from a high of 97.733.

The US Dollar Index is near a four-year low due to US political comments that have weakened the USD and tended to support the NZDUSD. The US political comments that weakened the US dollar primarily stemmed from President Trump's statement that a weaker US dollar is good.

Meanwhile, comments from other officials, such as the Finance Minister, who later reaffirmed the strong dollar policy, led to Trump's own comments being perceived as weakening the policy signal. The inconsistency of messages between the executive branch and the monetary authorities increased investor uncertainty.

However, President Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair signaled a policy stance that supported a stronger US dollar. The market interpreted Kevin Warsh as adopting a hawkish policy stance and strengthening the Fed's independence. Warsh is known for his tough stance on inflation; when inflation is high, he tends to favor high interest rates and opposes premature easing.

On the other hand, the New Zealand Dollar strengthened after rising inflation data and business sentiment put pressure on the USD and supported the NZD/USD pair. However, New Zealand's economic data remains vulnerable; GDP data and the RBNZ's previous outlook suggest growth pressures and a dovish monetary bias could weaken the NZD.

Global and geopolitical risks such as the Fed's interest rate decision, concerns over trade policy, and surprising US economic data could increase volatility.

Today's economic data releases will focus on New Zealand's labor market and the ADP Employment Change, which could be catalysts for today's price movements.

As a commodity currency, the NZD benefits from improving global risk appetite, particularly after the US-India trade deal lifted market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region.

Today's market focus is on a wait-and-see approach to employment data and developments in the Middle East, which could trigger an influx of funds into safe-haven assets.

Today's forecast price range: nearest support is around 0.60100, with the next support target around 0.5985. Nearest resistance is around 0.6085, with the next resistance target around 0.6120.

NZDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, the NZDUSD price is currently hovering near its previous historical high below the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing an ascending channel; the price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is above the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways trend.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 79, and its VB Low is at 40. The 39-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 69 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating a transition upward trend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 74 with a channel sloping downwards, indicating a downtrend.

NZDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, NZDUSD is near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with lower volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, while the price is above the line, indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 78, and its VB Low indicator is at 43. The 35-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 61 within a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 56 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

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GBP/JPY hovers near historic highs ahead of BoE interest rate decision

The GBP/JPY cross pair has shown a bullish bias for four consecutive days. Yesterday, GBP/JPY drew a long-bodied bullish candle with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 275,001, a low of 212,904, and a close of 214,282.

Today, this pair is expected to experience high volatility due to a major agenda from the Bank of England (BoE). Today, the BoE will release an interest rate announcement. The market is expecting a potential rate cut of 25 basis points from 3.75% to 3.50%, or at least a dovish signal for the coming months. Elsewhere, Forexfactory predicts the BoE will maintain its interest rate at 3.75%. If the BoE cuts rates, the GBP is at risk of weakening.

The UK manufacturing PMI showed optimism at 51.8, but the market is likely to focus more on today's interest rate decision as a determinant of the medium-term trend direction. If the BoE keeps interest rates on hold, it could technically support the GBP.

On the other hand, the Japanese yen is under pressure. The yen has weakened globally due to softer Japanese inflation data and expectations of market uncertainty, including fiscal concerns and possible political risks in Japan ahead of the election.

Japanese bond yields have risen to their highest levels in decades. This makes bond yields more attractive outside Japan, driving capital outflows from the Japanese yen and further depressing the yen.

Global market risks, such as uncertainty about US economic data and geopolitical impacts, tend to put temporary demand on safe-haven currencies like the yen. However, recent global news shows the yen under broad pressure and some risk-off pressure, but it hasn't been strong enough to reverse the yen's decline.

If the Bank of England (BoE) maintains interest rates, the rate differential will be approximately 3%, with the BoE at 3.75% and the BoJ at 0.75%. This means the GBP offers a higher yield than the JPY, creating a carry trade that supports demand for GBP/JPY. When the interest rate differential is positive, investors tend to borrow low-yielding currencies, in this case JPY, and invest in high-yielding currencies, in this case GBP, thereby supporting GBP appreciation.

GBP/JPY is estimated to be within the key support range of 212.50 and resistance at 215.80 today. The nearest support is at 213.20, and the nearest resistance is estimated at 214.90. This forecast could be incorrect.

GBP/JPY D1

On the daily timeframe, GBPJPY is currently hovering near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, reflecting a sideways trend with a bullish bias and moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating a longer-term bullish sentiment.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 74, and the VB Low is at 51. The 23-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 62 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 62, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating a strong uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 55, with a channel curving upward, indicating an uptrend transition.

GBPJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPJPY is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is below the middle band, drawing a flat channel; the price is well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is below the 50-day moving average (MA) drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 72, and its VB Low indicator is at 42. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 57 within an ascending channel, indicating bullishness is greater than bearishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is at 62, with a downward-curving channel crossing the TSL, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 69 within a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways trend.

 

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High Silver Price Volatility Amid Geopolitical Dynamics

The XAG/USD market is currently experiencing a phase of high volatility after experiencing an extreme spike and sharp correction in early 2026. Yesterday, silver prices fell again after recovering. The price drew a long-bodied bearish candle with small shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 90.390, a low of 72.251, and a close of 74.165.

The precious metals market experienced a major sell-off, with silver prices falling sharply by 15% in the last session due to easing geopolitical tensions and a strengthening US dollar, which put pressure on safe-haven assets like XAG/USD. Silver futures also fell significantly, hitting a low of 73.39 before rebounding.

Today, talks between the US and Iran in Oman will be the market focus. This news has somewhat eased geopolitical tensions, which have traditionally pressured safe-haven assets like silver. However, failure to reach an agreement could trigger a sudden price rebound.

President Trump's recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chair nominee significantly strengthened the dollar index (DXY), which briefly touched above 97. A fundamentally strong dollar is a major obstacle to silver's upward movement.

Several major exchanges, such as MCX, recently increased margin requirements for silver trading from 2% to 7% effective February 6, 2026. This has forced many traders to liquidate their positions, potentially increasing short-term selling pressure.

Despite high volatility and some rebounds due to bargain hunting, gold and silver briefly rallied after significant declines. Analysts warn of the possibility of continued extreme fluctuations, potentially leading to sharp swings in both upside and downside in the short term.

Demand from the industrial sector remains a long-term positive catalyst for silver, but macro sentiment and safe-haven demand play a dominant role in the short term.

Today's silver price forecast: nearest support is around 71.80. The next support target is around 68.50. The nearest resistance is around 88.80, and the next resistance target is around 90.40. This forecast could be incorrect.

XAGUSD D1

The current daily silver price movement is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a horizontal channel with wide spacing, indicating a fading uptrend and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the lower band draws an upward channel, while prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws a slightly upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 89, and its VB Low is 49. The 40-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 68 with a downward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 44 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 55 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAGUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the silver price is currently near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a horizontal channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, reflecting a sideways market and slight downturn volatility

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the upper band is drawing a descending channel, with the price well below the line, indicating strong bearish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band is drawing a horizontal channel, indicating a longer-term sideways market.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 56, and its VB Low is 23. The 33-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 40 within a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullishness, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 35 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 37 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

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Oil prices are trending lower amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and supply policies

At the end of the week, Friday, February 6th, the price of WTI oil drew a medium-bodied bullish candle with long wicks at the top and bottom of the candle. Oil prices formed a high of 64.36, a low of 62.09, and a close of 63.37.

Market sentiment is currently in a consolidation phase, tending towards a bearish bias due to changing geopolitical dynamics and supply policies. The de-escalation of tensions between the US and Iran has provided room for oil prices to weaken. News of the United States and Iran's agreement to hold talks in Oman has eased concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, eliminating some of the risk premium that had previously driven up prices.

Saudi Arabia recently announced that the official selling price for Arab Light crude oil to the Asian market for March delivery was at its lowest level in five years. This indicates an effort to maintain market share amidst moderate global demand.

The selection of hawkish figures, such as President Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as his replacement for the Fed Chair, has boosted the US dollar index. Because the XTI is pegged to the USD, a stronger US dollar can exert natural selling pressure on oil prices.

In the medium term, WTI is projected to remain in a non-linear mid-range due to supply and demand imbalances. Many analysts project a global oversupply as production increases. Reports indicate signs of a global supply surplus as production from several non-OPEC countries remains stable, while demand growth in key markets like China is still considered insufficiently aggressive.

Bullish catalysts for WTI oil include declining US stockpiles and the possibility of temporary production disruptions due to extreme weather. Changing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East between the US and Iran could trigger bullish catalysts if they lead to potential supply disruptions.

Today's WTI oil price forecast: The nearest support is around 62.20. A breakout of this level will target the next support at around 61.00. The nearest resistance is around 64.40, with the next resistance target around 65.10. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

The WTI oil price hovered between the upper and middle band lines at the end of the week. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel; prices well above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 68, and its VB Low is at 42. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 55 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 57, with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 62, with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the WTI oil price is near the middle band. Here, the Bollinger bands are contracting, indicating decreasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws an upward channel, while the price is near the line, indicating a possible sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 62, and its VB Low is at 40. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a slightly greater bullish weight than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

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Japanese Yen Strengthens Following Sanae Takaichi's Victory

The safe-haven USD/JPY currency pair declined sharply on Monday, February 9th, following the LDP's victory under the leadership of Sanae Takaichi in the recent general election. The USD/JPY drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 157.639, a low of 155.520, and a close of 155.763.

Although the market was initially concerned about expansionary fiscal policy, reduced political uncertainty actually strengthened the JPY. After weakening to 157.659, the yen strengthened significantly to 155.520 as investors began to respond to the new political stability in Japan.

Japanese authorities are cautious about currency movements to avoid rapid yen depreciation, which could trigger risk-off in the forex market. The Nikkei Index reached a record high above 56,000, which sometimes triggers capital inflows into Japanese assets, although the yen's correlation is often inverse.

Regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, there are expectations of policy normalization with gradual interest rate hikes, which supports the yen in the medium term.

On the other hand, the market is starting to anticipate a possible Fed rate cut in 2026, which could put pressure on the USD and narrow the interest rate differential between the US and Japan. Currently, US interest rates are in the 3.5%-3.75% range, with the Fed maintaining rates at its January meeting.

Reports that Chinese banks are reducing their holdings of US Treasuries have also weighed on the USD, while the Yen has been supported by more cautious risk sentiment.

Recent data from the US labor market indicates that the unemployment rate is stagnating, with the unemployment rate hovering around 4.4%. This has limited the USD's strength as fears of a mild recession persist.

USDJPY daily range forecast: nearest support is around 155.60, next support target is around 155.00. Nearest resistance is around 156.80, next resistance target is around 157.25. This forecast could be wrong.

USDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, the price is currently below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating range movement and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, while the price is close to the line, indicating sideways movement. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High of TDI indicator is at 68, and its VB Low indicator is at 36. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line points to 50 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDJPY is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a horizontal channel, slightly widening, indicating a sideways trend and slightly increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an upward channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways market sentiment.

The VB High of TDI indicator is at 77, and its VB Low indicator is at 48. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 63 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 42, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 50, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD pulls back amid a weakening USD

The major GBP/USD pair failed to extend its gains yesterday. GBP fell, drawing a bearish candle with a smaller body than the previous candle. The price formed a high of 1.36971, a low of 1.36401, and a close of 1.36473.

The strength of the GBP currency indicates moderate volatility. Today's price movements are expected to be largely influenced by external factors and USD movements, as there are no high-impact news releases from the UK.

The Bank of England (BoE) decided to maintain interest rates at 3.75% in its last meeting, despite pressure from some MPC members to cut them due to declining inflation. The market now expects several rate cuts throughout 2026, which is weighing on the GBP's appeal in global markets.

UK economic growth has been revised down, with GDP forecast at around 0.9% for 2026, and domestic political risks are increasing, pressure on the Labour Party is mounting, and investor concerns about fiscal stability are mounting.

Recent UK PMI data has shown expansion, but political criticism and the prospect of interest rate cuts continue to dampen sentiment.

Overall, GBP fundamentals are bearish, as the prospect of lower interest rates and political risks increase risk aversion.

The Fed is currently maintaining interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range, and Fed officials are expressing cautious optimism, suggesting they are likely awaiting further data before making any moves. The market hasn't fully priced in an aggressive rate cut, so the USD is relatively strong against global interest rate expectations.

Recent US economic performance data shows a stable economy, but inflation is relatively above the long-term target, and the labor market is starting to show signs of stabilization. Fundamentally, the USD is showing support due to economic stability and the lack of drastic interest rate cuts.

Today, there are several important news items that could influence GBPUSD price movements. The NFP and US labor data are scheduled for release today after being delayed due to the shutdown. From the UK, the Bank of England's Talbot speech is due. Although its impact is expected to be less significant, the BoE official's speech could still trigger volatility in the GBP.

GBPUSD D1

The GBPUSD price movement on the daily timeframe is currently above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, with the price somewhat distant from the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a slightly ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 73, and the VB Low is pointing at 45. The 28-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 59 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 55 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 55 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

GBPUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, GBPUSD is moving above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a flat channel with relatively wide band spacing, indicating range movement with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band is drawing a descending channel; prices below this line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the lower band is drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 61, and its VB Low is 29. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 45 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is 50 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 56 with a slightly descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices remain above the $5,000 level.

After dropping to around $4402 amid a massive sell-off following gold's historic peak in early 2026, gold prices have begun to move gradually higher, driven by a combination of weak US economic data and safe-haven sentiment. Yesterday, gold formed a small-bodied bullish candle. The price reached a high of $5118, a low of $5019, and a close of $5088.

US economic data on December retail sales, just released yesterday, showed stagnant growth. This has fueled concerns about slowing consumption and reinforced speculation that the Fed will adopt an accommodative stance. The market is starting to price in a 60-basis-point Fed rate cut by the end of 2026. Lower interest rates have historically benefited gold because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Geopolitical tensions, including the issue between the US and Iran and policy uncertainty in Washington, are driving investors to gold as a hedge. Furthermore, sustained buying by global central banks provides structural support for gold in the long-term.

Global central bank demand for gold is projected to remain a key pillar supporting high gold prices. International financial institutions and commodity analysts predict solid purchases, albeit with slight adjustments from previous years' records.

JP Morgan projects central bank gold purchases to reach 800 tons in 2026. The World Gold Council (WGC) and several other analysts estimate purchases in the 700-750 ton range. In comparison, total purchases in 2025 be approximately 863 tons.

Central banks, especially in emerging countries, continue to diversify their assets to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. Learning from the geopolitical conflicts of recent years, gold is considered a safe-haven that cannot be frozen by foreign authorities, making it a crucial sovereign instrument.

This sustained institutional buying creates a floor for gold prices, meaning that if a technical correction occurs, central bank buying tends to limit a significant price decline.

The 2025 WGC survey showed that 95% of central bank respondents expect global gold reserves to continue to increase, and 43% plan to increase their own holdings throughout 2026.

Gold is also viewed by most investors as a hedge against global economic uncertainty. China's move to urge domestic banks to limit exposure to US Treasuries reinforces the shift towards gold.

Today's gold price forecast: nearest support is around $5050, with the next support target around $5030. Nearest resistance is around $5115, with the next resistance target around $5145. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently hovering between the middle and upper bands. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an ascending channel; the price is well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 87, and the VB Low is pointing at 48. The 39-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 67 within a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 57, with the ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line points to 55 with a curved channel to the upside, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a horizontal channel with shrinking band spacing, reflecting sideways movement and low market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a horizontal descending channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 63, and its VB Low indicator is at 43. The 20-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than the bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is at 59 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line is at 58 with a horizontal channel, indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

GBP/JPY shows the pound under considerable pressure from the yen.

For the fourth consecutive day of trading, the GBP/JPY cross pair has shown quite strong bearish sentiment. GBP/JPY is currently trading around 208.094, with a bearish candlestick crossing the lower band. Yesterday's price range was 209.546 to 207.563, with a close of 208.081.

Recent political and monetary dynamics drove the yen's strengthening. The landslide victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the February 9th election provided political certainty. Although Takaichi favors stimulus, the market views this victory as a path to a more orderly normalization of monetary policy.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to 0.75% at its December 2025 meeting. The market is now pricing in an additional rate hike to 1.00% at its March 2026 meeting. The Japanese yen is also gaining strength from global trade uncertainty related to US tariff policies, which has triggered inflows into safe-haven assets.

UK GDP data shows very slow growth, at just 0.1% in the last quarter of 2025. Furthermore, the UK's goods trade deficit reportedly widened to a record high, further weighing on the pound sterling.

At its meeting in early February 2026, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to hold interest rates at 3.75%. However, the vote was very close, with four members favoring a cut. Governor Andrew Balley signaled dovishly that further rate cuts were highly likely, as inflation was expected to fall to 2% in the second quarter of 2026.

British political conditions are reportedly in serious turmoil. Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the Labour Party is facing significant pressure that threatens the stability of his leadership. The most heated topic this week is the link between Starmer's inner circle and the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. The appointment of Peter Mandelson as Ambassador to the United States drew intense criticism after new documents revealed his past close ties with Epstein.The impact is that Starmer is being pressured to resign not only by the opposition but also by figures within his own party.

This political risk makes the GBP extremely vulnerable. If news of a no-confidence motion or the resignation of another cabinet minister emerges today, the pound could fall further against the yen, which is currently strengthening thanks to the new political stability in Japan.

Today's GBP/JPY price forecast: nearest support is around 207.60, with the next support target around 206.85. Nearest resistance is around 209.35, with the next resistance target around 210.10. This forecast could be wrong.

GBP/JPY D1

The current price is outside the lower band. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating increasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the lower band, drawing an ascending channel; the price has crossed the line from the upside, indicating a downtrend transition. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 73, and the VB Low is pointing at 44. The 29-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 59 within a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 37 within a descending channel, with the descending channel crossing the TSL from the upside, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 50 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

GBPJPY H4

The current price on the H4 timeframe shows GBPJPY near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a slightly descending channel, while the price is well below the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 58, and its VB Low is 20. The 38-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 39 within a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish weight, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is 27 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend in the oversold zone.

The Trade Signal Line is 27 within a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.