Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Oil Price Projections Amidst the Iran War Conflict by Major Institutions

WTI oil prices are currently trading at approximately $95- $99 per barrel after surging more than 35% in the past week due to the conflict. At the end of the week, XTIUSD drew a bullish candle with a long wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 97.40, a low of 91.21, and a close of 97.32.

The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran triggered a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that diverts approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Tanker disruptions disrupted global oil flows and drove up energy prices. Several major oil fields in the Gulf also temporarily shut down production, eliminating millions of barrels per day from the global market.

The Strait of Hormuz closure has created a very high geopolitical risk premium, prompting speculators and hedge funds to become long in oil, thereby supporting price increases. Although oil prices briefly surged, volatility remains high as the market also considers other factors, such as the US release of strategic oil reserves.

EIA members recently approved the release of massive crude oil reserves to curb the global price surge. This caused prices to correct below $90 a few days ago. Several countries, including Japan and Australia, have reportedly begun releasing their strategic oil reserves to alleviate supply shortages. This has reduced the risk of extreme price spikes or of price increases being limited.

Major institutions such as JP Morgan and the IEA predict a supply surplus of 3.8 million barrels throughout 2026 due to strong production growth outside of OPEC+, such as the US, Brazil, and Guyana.

The latest EIA report shows a much higher-than-expected increase in US oil stocks of $3.8 million barrels, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

The IEA estimates that oil consumption growth in 2026 will slow to around 640,000 barrels per day due to a weakening global economy and high energy prices. In the medium term, prices could decline once the crisis subsides.

Several investment banks have raised their price targets for the Middle East conflict. Goldman Sachs projects an average WTI price target for March-April of approximately $98- $110, with a fourth-quarter 2026 target of $67 per barrel. If disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz are severe, prices could reach above $110. Wall Street banks predict that, once the crisis subsides, prices will return to $50- $60 per barrel.

The current price trend is bullish due to the war in the Middle East and supply risks. However, gains are limited by the release of strategic reserves and the prospect of medium-term oversupply. Today's price forecast is approximately $95- $105, with the highest institutional target at $110. If Iran completely closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could reach $120- $140. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, WTI oil is currently near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with expanding band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) lies below the middle band, forming an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating a strong uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating a longer-term sideways trend. There is a golden cross signal on this timeframe.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing at 82, and its VB Low indicator is pointing at 49. The 33-point difference reflects the volatility at the daily time scale.

The Market Base Line is at 66, with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than a bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 82, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an overbought uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 80 with a slightly flattened channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

XTIUSD H4

Oil prices are below the upper band on the H4 timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) lies below the middle band, forming an ascending channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating a moderate uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 79, and its VB Low is 40. The 39-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 59, with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than a bearish bias and suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 61, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 60 with a sloping ascending channel, indicating a fading uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices briefly broke below $5,000 amid hawkish Fed expectations

Gold prices fell below the $5,000 level on Monday, continuing a two-week decline amid the military conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Yesterday, gold prices briefly dipped to a low of $4,966 after breaking through the psychological $5,000 level. Prices then corrected upwards, reaching a high of $5,137 and closing at $5,009.

Although gold is a safe-haven asset amid the US-Israel and Iran military confrontations, its price declined. This could be due to profit-taking and investors' need for liquidity to cover losses in other instruments due to global market volatility.

Inflation concerns due to high energy prices have led the market to expect the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance by maintaining interest rate hikes for longer or even raising them to curb inflation. This has supported the USD and put pressure on gold, a non-yielding asset. In recent days, the strengthening US dollar and rising US Treasury yields have been the main pressures on gold.

The US-Israel and Iran conflict continues to increase global risks and energy prices due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This situation could trigger increased tensions because it is not only the US that is affected, but also European countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz for tanker transit.

The market's current focus is on the release of US economic data and interest rate decisions from several central banks this week. The market is also awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on March 17-18. These central bank decisions and comments could trigger significant movements in gold prices.

The strength of the US dollar is also a concern. The DXY briefly reached a high above 100, pressuring gold prices, which then pulled back to around 99. Technically, when the US dollar rises, gold prices tend to fall. The Iran war and energy crisis could trigger energy supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which could increase the risk of global inflation because oil prices could surge, theoretically supporting safe-haven demand.

The nearest gold support is estimated at around $4,966, with the next support at around $4,881. The nearest resistance is around $5,064, and the next resistance is at around $5,163. This forecast could be wrong.

XAUUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, gold drew a doji candle, positioned above the lower band. The Bollinger Bands drew a flat channel with slightly narrowed band spacing, indicating sideways movement and slightly decreased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band drew an ascending channel, with the price slightly above the line, indicating a weak uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) was well below the lower band drew an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator showed a reading of 71, and the VB Low showed a reading of 41. The 30-point difference reflects the volatility values on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line showed a reading of 56 with a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, and suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line showed a reading of 48 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line showed a reading of 51 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

Gold prices on the H4 timeframe consolidated near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) lies above the middle band, forming a descending channel, with the price slightly below the line, indicating a moderate downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a horizontal channel, indicating fading bullish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 59, and its VB Low is 32. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 46 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 37, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 34 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/USD rises due to monetary policy divergence amid global geopolitical tensions

The AUD/USD commodity currency pair has risen for two consecutive days. Yesterday, the price drew a bullish candle with a long body candle and small shadows at the top and bottom. The price formed a high of 0.71182, a low of 0.70491, and a close of 0.71053.

The AUD/USD pair exhibited very interesting dynamics due to the monetary policy divergence between Australia and the United States, coupled with geopolitical tensions.

On Tuesday, March 17, the RBA surprisingly raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.10%. The RBA Governor stated that domestic inflation remains too high at around 3.8%, and risks are to the upside. This move supported the AUD exchange rate as the market began to price in the possibility of further hikes in May.

Tomorrow morning, Australia will release Labor Force data. If the unemployment rate remains low at around 4.1%, this could further support the AUD's strength.

The Fed is scheduled to release its interest rate decision tonight. The market predicts a 99% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, the market's primary focus is on the dot plot and Jerome Powell's speech. The conflict in the Middle East has caused oil prices to soar to $100, creating an inflation dilemma for the Fed.

As a commodity currency, the AUD typically strengthens when risk sentiment is positive. However, the Iran war has fueled uncertainty. Interestingly, rising energy prices often benefit Australian commodity exports, supporting the AUD, despite the risk of risk aversion. Strengthening gold and energy provide fundamental support for the AUD as a natural resource exporter.

On the other hand, the USD remains quite strong due to global uncertainty, which has increased safe-haven demand, and risk-off sentiment, which has kept US yields high. However, there are signs of weakening in US economic data, such as retail sales and the previous NFP.

The estimated nearest support for AUDUSD is around 0.7040, with the next support target around 0.6990. The nearest resistance is around 0.7120, with the next resistance target around 0.7180. This forecast could be wrong.

AUDUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, AUDUSD is above the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating sideways movement with moderate volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, while the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 71, and its VB Low is at 49. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 60 with a descending channel, indicating bullish sentiment is greater than bearish sentiment, suggesting a potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 54 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

AUDUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDUSD is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a curved channel to the upside, with the price above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 68, and its VB Low is at 36. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 58, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 55, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the downside, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver experiences a downward spiral amid concerns about an economic slowdown

Silver prices yesterday drew a bearish candle, extending their six-day losing streak. Silver prices reached a high of 80,173, a low of 74,996, and a close of 75,363.

Market sentiment toward the XAGUSD pair is currently under significant pressure following the FOMC meeting results announced on March 18th.

The Fed decided to maintain interest rates in the 3.50-3.75% range. Although the market expected further easing, the Fed instead revised up its core PCE inflation projection for 2026. This suggests that the high-interest-rate policy will persist longer, which mechanically weakens silver's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

The US dollar index (DXY) strengthened following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, rising to 100,309. This strengthening dollar makes silver more expensive for holders of other currencies, triggering selling in recent days.

Despite tensions in the Middle East, attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, safe-haven sentiment in silver is overshadowed by concerns about a global economic slowdown. As an industrial commodity, silver is highly sensitive to projections of slowing economic growth.

Silver prices briefly reached $100 earlier this year. Silver is currently in a fairly deep technical and fundamental correction.

Silver price movement is estimated to be in the range of 74.30-81.65. The nearest support is approximately 75.60, with the next support target at approximately 74.30. The nearest resistance is approximately 79.30, with the next resistance target at approximately 81.65. This forecast could be wrong.

XAGUSD D1

The silver price on the daily timeframe is near the lower band. The Bollinger Bands form a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating a range-bound movement with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a flat channel, with the price below the line, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing a slightly ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 55, and the VB Low is pointing at 39. The 16-point difference reflects the volatility at the daily time scale.

The Market Base Line is at 47, with a descending channel, indicating greater bearish than bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 41 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 46 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAGUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the silver price broke below the lower band. The Bollinger Bands are forming a descending channel with relatively narrow band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, with the price well below the line, indicating a fairly strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing at 51, and its VB Low indicator is pointing at 30. The 21-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 40, with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than a bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 30 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend in oversold levels.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 35 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

The New Zealand Dollar Strengthens as the US Dollar Index Consolidates

The commodity currency pair NZD/USD experienced moderate gains yesterday amid a decline in the DXY. The NZD/USD pair drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a high higher than the previous high. The price formed a high of 0.58925, a low of 0.57849, and a close of 0.58727 at the present time.

Current market sentiment for the NZD/USD pair shows interesting dynamics. The NZD, also known as the Kiwi, has shown moderate strength in the past 24 hours. Market focus is on more stable domestic economic data after a period of volatility.

The NZD often moves in line with global risk appetite; if Asian stock and commodity markets strengthen, the NZD is likely to maintain its momentum.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently consolidating following the release of inflation data or the Fed's previous policy decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The market is now awaiting jobless claims data or Fed officials' comments that may provide clues about the next interest rate direction.

Global geopolitical tensions remain a significant factor that could suddenly strengthen the USD. The DXY is currently at 99.227, down from a previous high above 100. Middle East conflicts have driven up oil prices, which technically puts pressure on riskier currencies like the NZD during risk-off sentiment.

The NZDUSD forecast, based on recent prices and market psychological levels, shows the nearest support level at 0.5810, with the next support target at 0.5780. The nearest resistance level is at 0.5895, with the next resistance target at 0.6910. This forecast could be incorrect.

NZDUSD D1

NZDUSD is currently below the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands are drawing a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band is drawing an ascending channel, while prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the middle band is drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 67, and the VB Low is pointing at 35. The 32-point difference reflects the volatility at the daily time scale.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 51 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias, and potential for a decline.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 41 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 43 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

NZDUSD H1

On the hourly timeframe, NZDUSD broke the upper band line. The Bollinger Bands are drawing an ascending channel with widening band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increasing market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is above the middle band, drawing a horizontal channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a slightly descending channel, indicating weak bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is at 64, and its VB Low indicator is at 25. The 39-point difference reflects the volatility at the hourly time scale.

The Market Base Line is at 45 with a horizontal channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 70, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the downside, indicating an uptrend in the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line is at 62 with an ascending channel, indicating a sharp uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices fell amid the Fed's hawkish stance and massive profit-taking by large institutions.

Gold prices have fallen significantly for three consecutive weeks, peaking sharply last weekend, when gold hit a low of $4,477. Gold prices briefly reached a high of $5,597 in January 2026.

The decline in gold prices occurred amid heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East, following the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28th. Gold briefly rose to $5,418, then declined thereafter. Several reasons for the bearish bias in gold prices, including both technical and psychological factors, have driven the decline:

The US dollar strengthened. The war in Iran, which caused a surge in energy prices, was expected to increase inflation, prompting the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance and to maintain interest rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range at its March meeting. This reduced expectations of an imminent interest rate cut, thereby supporting the U.S. dollar. This made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Investors prefer to hold yield-generating assets, such as the U.S. dollar and bonds.

Institutional position liquidation. Many institutions with high leverage have begun to flush or close positions to offset losses in other sectors or to secure profits after a long rally throughout late 2025.

Massive profit-taking. Gold prices have surged more than 60% in the past year. The current correction is considered healthy, as it allows the market to establish a new price floor before returning to the long-term target above $5,000.

The daily RSI is below the oversold level, but the MACD indicates strong bearish momentum, suggesting that the decline may continue before a rebound.

Geopolitical risks, such as tensions between the US and Iran over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously triggered a surge in gold prices above $5,000, are now being considered without any major new escalation, prompting profit-taking. However, the market remains wary of sudden news from the Middle East that could trigger a sudden price spike.

Today's gold price forecast: the nearest support is approximately $4450, with the next support target at approximately $4300. The nearest resistance is approximately $4680, with the next resistance target at approximately $4840. This forecast could be incorrect.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price broke through the lower band, ending the range-bound movement phase of the previous week. The Bollinger Bands expanded, with the upper and lower bands diverging, indicating a sharp increase in volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an upward channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 65, and the VB Low is at 39. The 26-point difference reflects the volatility at the daily time scale.

The Market Base Line is at 52, with a flat channel, indicating greater bullish than bearish weight.

The RSI Price Line is at 29 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend in the oversold level.

The Trade Signal Line is at 40 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the lower band. The Nollinger Bands are at a downward channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band draws a descending channel, with the price well below the line, indicating a strong downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a horizontal channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 45, and its VB Low is 17. The 28-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 31 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 19 with a descending channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend in the oversold level.

The Trade Signal Line is at 24 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

 

[radex78]

XTI/USD oil prices fall sharply as Trump delays attack on Iran

The current WTI oil price is around $88.3 per barrel, with an initial intraday range of $87.80-$88.80. Previously, the price had fallen sharply to the 84.81 area, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with a relatively long shadow at the bottom of the candle.

Oil prices dropped by around 10%, in line with the postponement of the US attack on Iran and the rise of hopes for peace negotiations.

In a tweet on Truth Social, Trump claimed that there had been very good and productive talks, leading to the possibility of a comprehensive resolution to the conflict. Based on this, Trump stated that he was postponing attacks on Iranian power and energy facilities for five days. This delay depends on the outcome of ongoing negotiations.

In a follow-up statement, he stated that there was a major agreement and was optimistic that a peace agreement could be reached soon. Previously, Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened. Following the tweet, the market reacted immediately, with oil prices dropping sharply, and sentiment shifting toward de-escalation, which means a reduced risk premium.

However, the Middle East conflict is not over. Iran responded to Trump's threats with a very firm tone, vowing to destroy critical infrastructure in the Middle East. Counterattack targets include energy facilities, water installations, and other vital infrastructure. This shows Iran is prepared to escalate the conflict to a regional level. Iran has also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked, which could have significant repercussions for the global economy.

Following Trump's threats, Iran launched missiles toward Israel and targeted US military interests, which meant Iran was not just talking but taking direct military action. Senior Iranian officials warned that if Iran's power facilities were destroyed, the entire region could go dark. This threat of a retaliatory attack on the regional energy grid could trigger a transnational electricity crisis.

Iran denied direct negotiations with the US and viewed Trump's threats as a propaganda ploy and a form of psychological pressure on the energy market.

Iran's response can be summarized as: Iran is very aggressive and ready to escalate, ready to retaliate with a military attack, using the Strait of Hormuz as its primary weapon. This is what caused oil prices to spike sharply. However, when Trump postponed the attack, oil prices fell. However, US oil stocks rose sharply, providing short-term support, while global demand remains strong, providing medium-term bullish support.

The forecast WTI oil price range today is around $85-$95. If the conciliatory sentiment persists, oil prices may fall within the $85-$90 range, with a break above $87 potentially leading to a further $83-$85. If escalation occurs again, the oil price range is estimated at $90-$97. A break of $97 raises the potential for a rapid spike. This forecast could be wrong.

XTIUSD D1

On the daily timeframe, WTI oil prices are currently near the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, with the price well above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 83, and its VB Low is 50. The 33-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 66 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish weighting.

The RSI Price Line is 63 within a descending channel, crossing the RSL and MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 71 within a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XTIUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the WTI oil price broke the lower band. The Bollinger Bands drew a flat channel, with the upper and lower bands spaced apart, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, with the price below the line indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 63, and its VB Low is at 41. The 22-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 34 with a flat descending channel, indicating a fading downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 48, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

AUD/JPY trending lower amid geopolitical risk aversion in the Middle East

The AUD/JPY had experienced significant bullish movement before the Iran war began. The price reached a record high of 113,958 in mid-March 2026. The rally then stalled, and the price trended lower, reaching a low of 110,227 late last week.

The AUD/JPY price dynamics were influenced by divergence due to contrasting monetary policies between Australia and Japan, coupled with global market risk sentiment due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have persisted for more than three weeks, and with no clear signs of an end to the Iran-US-Israel war.

The AUD/JPY trended lower amidst risk aversion from tensions in the Middle East that could escalate into a regional war.

At the RBA's monetary policy meeting in March 2026, the Australian central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. The RBA is focused on curbing secondary inflation triggered by the surge in global oil prices. This commitment provides structural resilience for the AUD.

Today, the market will await the release of Australia's annual inflation data for February, with market consensus hovering around 3.8%. If the data is higher than expected, the AUD could potentially strengthen as the market considers the possibility of another interest rate hike in May.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its short-term interest rate at around 0.75% at its meeting last week. The Bank of Japan remains cautious and patient amid global growth uncertainty, although the swap market indicates a chance of one 25 basis point hike in 2026.

Amid the Middle East conflict, the Japanese yen is caught between two functions: on the one hand, its status as a safe-haven currency; on the other, as Japan imports heavy oil, rising energy prices actually weigh on the JPY.

The Australian dollar, as a commodity currency, often finds support when commodity prices rise. Some commodities that influence the AUD include oil, coal, nickel, industrial metals, and gold.

The forecast range for AUD/JPY is: the nearest support is around 110.40, with the next support target around 109.80. The nearest resistance is around 111.45, with the next resistance target around 112.15. This forecast could be wrong.

AUDJPY D1

On the daily timeframe, AUDJPY is between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with narrowing band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and somewhat weakening volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws an ascending channel, while the price is above the line, indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is pointing at 69, and the VB Low is pointing at 50. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 60 with a descending channel, indicating bullishness is greater than bearishness, indicating potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 49 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 53, with a descending channel crossing the MBL from above, indicating a downtrend.

AUDJPY H4

On the H4 timeframe, AUDJPY is below the middle band. The Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the upper band represents a descending channel; prices below the line indicate a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) above the lower band represents an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 61, and the VB Low is at 27. The 34-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 44 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish bias than bullish bias.

The RSI Price Line is at 41 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 34 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

The Canadian Dollar Pressured by Falling Oil Prices

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair rose for three consecutive days amid expectations of a de-escalation in the Middle East. Oil prices are currently falling due to hopes of a de-escalation in the Iran-US-Israel conflict. As a major oil exporter, the CAD is heavily influenced by fluctuations in oil prices. In fact, in the past two months, the CAD has fallen to its weakest level due to falling oil prices and weak economic data.

Yesterday, the USD/CAD drew a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadows. The price formed a high of 1.38137, a low of 1.37499, and a close of 1.38102.

The current Middle East conflict is not over yet, but there have been several diplomatic signals and a change in Trump's stance as the main actor, which the market has interpreted as a sign of peace. The US sent a 15-point peace plan to Iran through Pakistani mediators. Although not yet approved, the proposal is under review, which is enough to spur market optimism. Trump also postponed major threats to Iran's infrastructure, which helped calm the market by reducing the impact of the war, which directly pressured oil prices.

Canadian economic data was reported to be weak, with exports falling sharply by around -14.6% year-on-year. Canada also suffered significant job losses of around 84,000. Bond yields fell, further reinforcing the sentiment that the Canadian economy is weakening, putting pressure on the CAD and the USD/CAD pair tending to rise.

The Bank of Canada is currently holding interest rates at 2.25%, despite expectations of a hike, but weak economic data is a drag.

In the US, the Fed's policy remains hawkish and neutral. The fed funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75%, indicating that the Fed remains cautious due to inflation triggered by the surge in energy prices due to the Iran war. Policy divergence still tends to favor a stronger USD over the CAD.

Today, the market will focus on US jobless claims data. If US employment data shows resilience, this will give the Fed room to maintain high interest rates for longer. Fed officials have also recently been cautious about cutting interest rates, which generally supports the USD.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a major driver. If new geopolitical tensions arise, the market typically shifts to safe-haven assets. Conversely, if the situation becomes more conducive, capital flows will flow from the USD to riskier currencies. However, the USDCAD decline tends to be contained, especially if oil prices fall drastically at the same time.

USDCAD price range forecast: nearest support is around 1.3700, with the next support target around 1.3680. Nearest resistance is around 1.3770, with the next resistance target around 1.3820. This forecast could be incorrect.

USDCAD D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCAD is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw a slightly ascending channel with slightly widened band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a descending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 62, and its VB Low is 37. The 25-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 49 within an ascending channel, indicating greater bearishness than bullishness, suggesting upside potential.

The RSI Price Line is 63 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 60 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

USDCAD H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD is near the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with widened spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws an ascending channel, with the price above the line indicating an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High indicator is pointing at 69, and the VB Low indicator is pointing at 50. The 19-point difference reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is pointing at 60 within an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish bias than bearish bias.

The RSI Price Line is pointing at 69 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend near the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line is pointing at 66 within an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Bullish momentum is building in the safe-haven USD/CHF pair.

The USD/CHF pair, where both the USD and the CHF act as safe-haven currencies, has gained for three consecutive days, as the USD continues to strengthen. Yesterday, the USD/CHF drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.79591, a low of 0.79089, and a close of 0.79375.

Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the US dollar's strength has continued over the past three days, with the DXY currently trading at 99.934, up from a low of 99.060. Meanwhile, the CHF has struggled to gain traction as traders remain cautious about potential SNB intervention to curb excessive currency appreciation.

Although the CHF and the USD are considered safe-haven currencies, they have very different characteristics, magnitudes, and drivers of inflow. Inflows to the USD tend to be larger in terms of volume and global liquidity, but the CHF often experiences proportionally sharper and more aggressive percentage appreciation.

During a financial crisis, capital inflows into the USD increase because the world needs cash, and the USD is the most liquid currency. The USD can strengthen sharply during a global liquidity crisis, a Wall Street stock market panic, or when the market anticipates a massive global recession. Investors tend to sell risky assets and park their funds in US Treasuries; to buy these US bonds, they need USD.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is a pure safe-haven currency driven by the stability of Switzerland's fundamentals. Its volume is much smaller than that of the US due to the Swiss market's small size. However, because of its small market size, even a modest inflow of funds is enough to cause the CHF's value to surge dramatically as a percentage. The CHF is highly sensitive to local geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, and banking crises. With very low debt below 40% of GDP, a consistent current account surplus, very low inflation, and a history of political neutrality spanning hundreds of years, investors buy the CHF to preserve value and protect it from crises.

The Fed's March 2026 meeting decided to maintain interest rates, adopting a wait-and-see stance because US inflation was above its target of 2%. Despite solid US economic growth, the market sees limited room for rate cuts in the remainder of 2026. Remaining high interest rates support the USD.

The SNB's March 2026 monetary policy review saw the SNB maintain interest rates at 0%. They maintained low interest rates to maintain price stability and prevent excessive appreciation of the Swiss Franc. Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the SNB publicly stated its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb excessive appreciation of the CHF, which is sought after as a safe-haven asset.

The wide interest rate differential between the SNB and the Fed theoretically benefits the USD through the carry trade mechanism. However, global geopolitical tensions could at any time trigger a strengthening of the Swiss Franc as a hedge currency.

USDCHF D1

On the daily timeframe, USDCHF is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a descending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 65, and the VB Low is at 38. The 27-point difference reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 63 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 with a flat channel, indicating sideways movement.

USDCHF H4

On the H4 timeframe, USDCHF is below the upper band. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws an ascending channel; prices above the line indicate an uptrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band draws a sloping ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is at 64, and its VB Low is at 42. The 22-point difference reflects volatility on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 53 with a descending channel, indicating greater bullishness than bearishness, suggesting potential downside.

The RSI Price Line is at 65 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 61 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.