Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

AUD/USD drops as USD gets support from tariff deadline

Yesterday AUDUSD dropped drawing a long-bodied bearish candle extending the three-day decline in a row. The price formed a high of 0.65560 low of 0.64853 closing at 0.64902. The Aussie's decline crossed the middle band from the top with a long body reflecting a sharp decline.

The US dollar strengthened along with the tariff deadline on July 7. DXY rose from a low of 96.891 to a high of 97.667.

United States (US) President Donald Trump again shook global trade with his latest import tariff policy. Starting August 1, 2025, 14 countries will be subject to high tariffs on their imports to the US, with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%.

Trump published a formal letter to the leaders of these countries, including Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, Bosnia, Tunisia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, and Thailand.

Other countries that were also subject to high tariffs include Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Tunisia, and Kazakhstan at 25%. While South Africa and Bosnia 30%, Bangladesh and Serbia 35%, Cambodia and Thailand 36%, and Laos and Myanmar 40%.

Trump emphasized that these tariffs could change, depending on the 'trade relationship' of each country with the US. In his letter, Trump also warned these countries not to impose retaliatory tariffs. If that happens, the US will raise its tariffs again by the same amount.

Although the US dollar index rose yesterday, it still faces challenges from the Fed's interest rates and a widening deficit as well as uncertainty about President Donald Trump's tariffs and taxes. Risk-off sentiment and tariffs also boost demand for safe-haven currencies, putting pressure on the AUD.

The RBA will announce its cash rate today, which is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.60% from 3.85% in response to slowing inflation of 2.1% and stagnant economic growth in the first quarter. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the AUD.

Australian retail sales data rose in May by only 0.2% month-on-month, below expectations of 0.3%. May's trade surplus data and China's PMI are also in the spotlight as the AUD is sensitive to China's growth.

AUSUD D1

The Australian dollar is now between the middle and lower bands. Here the Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with the upper and lower bands approaching each other indicating a fading uptrend and weakening volatility.

The 50 MA above the price draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment. The 200 MA below the lower band draws a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over a longer period. There is a golden cross signal on the daily timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 62 and the VB Low shows a value of 48. The difference of 14 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 55 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 47 with a downward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 56 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

AUDUSD H4

The Australian dollar on the H4 timeframe is near the lower band. Here the Bollinger band draws a flat channel with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other indicating increasing volatility.

The MA 50 near the middle band draws a flat upward channel indicating fading bullish sentiment with prices below the MA reflecting a downtrend market. The MA 200 near the price draws a flat channel as a dynamic support.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70 and the VB Low shows a value of 32. The difference of 38 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 51 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish with a potential decline.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 33 with a horizontal downward channel indicating a sideways market near the oversold zone level.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 33 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Bitcoin price attempts to break the $110,000 price level

BTCUSD on Wednesday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the top of the candle. The price formed a high of $111,956, a low of $108,336, and a close of $110,716 on FXOpen's platform. Wednesday's rise continued Tuesday's small gain. The impact of this rise is that the Bollinger bands widened slightly, reflecting higher volatility.

There are several points in Bitcoin analysis today that investors are focusing on. The first concerns institutional adoption and regulation. Large fund flows into spot ETFs are projected to reach US$49 billion by July 2025. The Trump administration established a strategic Bitcoin Reserve fund in March 2025, adding formal recognition to Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Large corporations like MicroStrategy reported unrealized gains of US$14 billion from holdings of approximately 597,000 BTC, demonstrating long-term confidence.

Other fundamental factors include on-chain metrics and supply. The drop in liquidity, with over 14.7 million BTC remaining unmoved for over 155 days, created a supply squeeze. Trading activity remained stable, with average daily volume reaching US$5.9 billion year-over-year, but weakened slightly in July. Medium-term holders of three- to ten-year positions realized billions of dollars in profits, a sign of distribution and confidence.

Macro and geopolitical factors, including increasing stablecoin legislation and crypto regulation in the US, are encouraging legal clarity and long-term adoption. The easing of geopolitical risks from the Israel-Iran war has provided positive momentum for crypto market sentiment. The Fed is stabilizing; if interest rates are lowered, this could strengthen riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Despite strong flows, exchange trading activity has weakened somewhat, and low volume could trigger a correction if there is no new buying momentum. Regulatory risks also remain, although the majority of positive signals suggest a sudden change is still possible. Bitcoin's inherent volatility remains high, and corrections are possible even during a long-term bullish trend.

Although Bitcoin's weekly gain remains low at 1.29%, the fear and greed index, which rose 2 points from 50 to 52, indicates new confidence has arisen, although it remains neutral.

BTCUSD D1

Bitcoin is below the upper band line on the daily timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a slightly ascending channel with wide band spacing, reflecting weak bullish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, reflecting a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 62, and VB Low shows a value of 43. The difference of 19 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 53 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 61, with an ascending channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 56 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

BTCUSD H4

Bitcoin's breakout of the upper band on the H4 timeframe reflects a sharp rise in the past two hours. The Bollinger Bands draw a slight upward channel, with the upper and lower bands diverging, indicating increased market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a slight upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Market Base Line is at 64, and the VB Low is at 41. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The RSI Price Line is at 72, with the upward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend in the market overbought.

The Trade Signal Line is at 60, with the upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Silver prices surged on Friday. Will they continue their upward trend?

The XAG/USD pair on Friday drew a bullish candle with a long body with almost no shadow, breaking the upper band line. The price formed a high of 38,529, a low of 36,906, and a close of 38,382 on FXOpen's platform. The silver price surge was the highest since 2012. The surge in silver prices was likely driven by falling long-term Treasury yields, which led to an influx into precious metals, including silver, as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East or global concerns could increase interest in safe-haven assets. Prospective silver demand for the electronics, solar panels, and automotive industries, along with news of Chinese stimulus, could fuel global demand.

Silver prices have been in a strong uptrend throughout 2025, rising by around 26.8%. Breaking through this psychological level could encourage speculative momentum and a surge in long prices, which could stimulate silver prices. The market may have expected the Fed to delay interest rate tapering or signal a looser policy, with expectations of lower interest rates weakening the US dollar and supporting industrial metals. There is no direct supply data today, but strong reports from the industrial sectors in Germany and China are putting pressure on silver prices.

Concerns about rising US tariffs could disrupt global trade, potentially driving safe-haven flows. However, if trade negotiations progress well, investors may avoid riskier assets.

What's worth noting in today's silver trading is that the price has risen significantly, potentially leading to profit-taking, which could lead to a retracement. The US Dollar Index rose to 97.964 on Friday from a low of 97.555, triggered by the dovish FOMC minutes and a successful US bond auction on Wednesday.

The US dollar is expected to strengthen today, driven by a rebound in Treasury yields, which could pressure the price of precious metals like silver. US economic data releases, such as CPI, PPI, employment data, or Fed minutes, are expected. Updates on geopolitical tensions, movements in 2-10-year US Treasury yields, and solar panel sales data from China and India could provide subtle clues about silver demand.

XAGUSD D1

Silver is currently outside the upper band, with the next psychological target in the $39-$40 range. The Bollinger Bands appear to be expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, reflecting increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws an ascending channel, reflecting longer-term bullish sentiment.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 74, and its VB Low is 52. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 63 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is 72 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from below, indicating an uptrend in the market, which is overbought.

The Trade Signal Line is 64 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

XAGUSD H4

The silver price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws an ascending channel, reflecting bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 76, and its VB Low is 37. The difference of 39 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 57 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is 81 with an ascending channel starting to flatten, indicating a fading market uptrend and reaching overbought levels.

The Trade Signal Line is 79 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices slipped ahead of US inflation data

Gold prices declined on Monday, drawing a bearish candle with a small shadow at the top. Gold prices formed a high of 3374, a low of 3341, and a close of 3342. Gold prices had risen three consecutive days the previous week as demand for safe-haven assets increased.

Gold prices continued to fluctuate amid trade war tensions involving US partners. US President Donald Trump's warning of potential 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico increased global market volatility, potentially boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This sentiment allowed investors to turn to the precious metal, as gold was perceived as attractive amid uncertainty. However, Trump's latest statement indicating openness to trade talks with Europe weighed on gold prices, sending them down to a low of 3341.

Geopolitical risks were also a concern, with Trump saying he would send more weapons to Ukraine and threatening "100% tariffs" on Russia unless they agreed to a 50-day ceasefire, as reported by Bloomberg.

Today, Tuesday, investors will be awaiting US inflation data, which is believed to influence the direction of the Fed's policy and interest rates. According to Forexfactory, US core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% from 0.1% previously. Month-on-month CPI is also projected to rise 0.3% from 0.1% previously, and year-on-year CPI is projected to rise 2.6% from 2.4%. Besides US inflation data, another focus for traders will be the market's reaction to the tariff news.

Market expectations for a December interest rate cut of more than 50 basis points are also supporting stronger sentiment for gold, as lower interest rates make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset with a lower opportunity cost.

Gold is also supported in the long term by central bank purchases, which continue to add to gold reserves, with 95% of them planning to add more this year. Bullish sentiment may remain relevant, especially if inflation data is mild and trade turmoil persists.

Although gold is expected to perform well in the long term, a correction is likely after its rapid rise. Citi estimates that gold could fall below $3,000 by the end of 2025 as US GDP improves and global risks ease. If inflation is strong and the Fed is hawkish, prices may fall closer to 3,300-3,345.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently between the upper and middle bands. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrowing band spacing, with the upper and lower bands converging, reflecting a flat market with low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, reflecting a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, reflecting bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 59, and VB Low shows a value of 44. The difference of 15 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 49 with an ascending channel, indicating a weak market uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel with relatively wide band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and moderate market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a slightly upward channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 70, and the VB Low shows a value of 34. The difference of 36 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 52 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weight than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 53 with a downward channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 62 with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

 

[radex78]

Awaiting Australian employment data, AUD/USD moves within a range

The AUD/USD pair drew a bullish candle yesterday with shadows at the top and bottom of the candle. This ended three consecutive bearish candles. The price formed a high of 0.6533, a low of 0.64952, and a close of 0.65253. The AUD/USD price movement is near the middle band line.

AUD/USD has shown recent weakness, trading near 0.6500 and down more than 1% this week. The US dollar strengthened despite lower-than-expected US Producer Price Index data. Today, AUD/USD traders will await Australian employment data, Employment Change, and Employment Rate, which are important catalysts.

The US dollar continued to strengthen despite weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, as traders remained cautious amid persistent inflation concerns and the threat of escalating tariffs from the United States.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised traders by keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.85%. Six of its nine board members supported the decision, while the other three advocated for an immediate 25 basis point cut. This internal split, described by Governor Michele Bullock as "timing, not direction." Bullock has since signaled that if Q2 inflation comes close to forecasts, a rate cut will follow. The RBA is taking a data-dependent approach and wants to see more evidence of inflation returning to its 2-3% target before easing further.

Further attention will be on the RBA's August meeting, following the release of the June quarter CPI data and the latest employment and financial data. The implications of the RBA's decision to hold interest rates could provide some support for the AUD, but the market will be highly sensitive to the RBA's comments on the outlook for future monetary policy.

In the US, the Fed's latest Beige Book report showed that US economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, albeit with high uncertainty. Non-auto consumer spending declined in most districts. The Fed funds rate is currently 4.33%, and the prime bank lending rate is around 7.50%. If US economic data continues to demonstrate resilience, this could support the Fed's stance on maintaining interest rates, supporting the USD. However, if more significant signs of weakness emerge, expectations of a rate cut could increase, weakening the USD.

Australia's annual inflation rate stabilized in the first quarter of 2025. Services inflation slowed but was offset by rising goods inflation, particularly electricity. Continuing inflation within the RBA's target could increase pressure to cut interest rates in the future, which is negative for the AUD.

US CPI inflation for July 2025 is estimated at 3.73% and core CPI at 3.04%. US PPI data was flat for June, while core PPI missed expectations, representing a downside surprise. Lower-than-expected US inflation data could ease pressure on the Fed to maintain high interest rates.

The US will release key economic data today: monthly core retail sales, which are expected to rise to 0.3% from a previously revised -0.3%. Unemployment claims are expected to rise to 233,000 from 227,000. Meanwhile, Australia's employment change is estimated at 21.0,000 from a previously revised -2.5,000, with the unemployment rate estimated at 4.1%, the same as the previous revision.

AUDUSD D1

The Australian dollar moves near the middle band line on the daily timeframe. Here, the Bollinger bands draw a slightly upward channel with relatively wide band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and relatively high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) between the middle and lower bands draws a slightly upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 62, and VB Low shows a value of 48. The difference of 14 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 55 with a flat channel, indicating a greater weighting of bullishness over bearishness.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 50 with a channel starting to flatten, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 53 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

AUDUSD H4

The Australian dollar is between the middle and lower band lines on the H4 timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, reflecting bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market, with prices below the line, reflecting a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a flat channel, reflecting a sideways market over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65, and VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the H$> timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 43 with a zigzag channel, indicating a back-and-forth movement.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 42, with a descending channel curving upward, indicating a trend transition.

 

[radex78]

Bitcoin Price Around $118K Amid News of US Pro-Crypto Move

Bitcoin's price has been flat for three days, trading in the $117k-$118k range. Bitcoin's price began to rise on July 9th after successfully breaking the psychological level of $111k, pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $123k

Bitcoin's rise may have been driven by various factors, including: the United States' pro-crypto stance with several laws such as the Genius Act, the Clarity Act, and the Anti-CBDD Act, which clarified the regulatory authority of stablecoins, the SEC vs. the CFTC, and the rejection of CBDCs. This wave of regulation has encouraged the adoption of ETFs, creating a legal climate that favors institutional investors.

Current market sentiment is tending toward Greed, with the Fear and Greed Index reaching 68, indicating high market optimism. Macro capital flows, including expectations of a Fed interest rate cut, are also a catalyst for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded billions of dollars in inflows between $3.4 and $4 billion in July. Products like the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust now manage around $80 billion, outpacing the growth of gold ETFs. Publicly traded companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet are also adding Bitcoin reserves as a strategic asset.

On-chain metrics and network security: The network hash rate is very high at around 891 EH/s, indicating post-halving confidence among miners. The distribution of long-term holders is increasing, with approximately 30% of coins remaining unchanged for less than five years, focused on high returns. Metrics like MVRV, SOPR, and MPI indicate a healthier, less speculative rally. Whale activity also attracted large movements totaling $8.3 billion, indicating strong conviction.

Quantum computing risks are still considered medium-term, and the community is developing quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions. There is potential for a short-term correction, with indicators like NVT suggesting overbought conditions at the peak of the cycle. However, expectations of lower macro interest rates and global uncertainty due to trade wars and tariffs are supporting Bitcoin.

BTCUSD D1

Bitcoin on the daily timeframe is currently between the upper and middle band lines. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an upward channel with wide spacing, but are beginning to narrow, indicating a decline in high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a slightly upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 72, and the VB Low is at 43. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility values on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 57 with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 61, with a downward channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 63, with a downward channel, indicating a downtrend.

BTCUSD H4

The Bitcoin price on the H4 timeframe is below the middle band. Here, a Bollinger Band squeeze indicates a flat price movement in the $116k-$118k range. If the price breaks the lower band, further price declines are likely.

The 50-day moving average (MA) is aligned with the middle band, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market, with the price crossing the MA from above, indicating a downtrend. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 58, and the VB Low is at 42. The difference of 16 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 50 with a flat channel, indicating the price is in a neutral zone.

The RSI Price Line is at 44, with a downward channel crossing the TSL from above, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 47, with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices rose to their highest level since June 17th, hovering around $3,400.

Yesterday, gold prices surged, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom, extending the preceding candle. Gold prices rose for two consecutive days. Yesterday, the price formed a high of 3433, a low of 3383, and a close of 3431 on FXOpen's platform.

Gold's rise to its highest level since mid-June was supported by a weakening USD and falling US bond yields. The geopolitical situation and slight uncertainty regarding Trump's policy response to the Fed Chair also strengthened gold's appeal as a safe-haven for investors.

US government bond yields have fallen for the fifth consecutive session, weakening the USD, as reflected in the DXY value, which declined from a high of 98,950 to 97,305 and has moved below the 20-day moving average (EMA), reflecting bearish sentiment.

US government bond yields continued to fall as the 10-year Treasury note fell more than five basis points, and as a result, US real yields, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal interest rates, have also declined by four and a half basis points.

Falling US Treasury yields have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates in September with a 59% probability. The ECB is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.0% on July 24, supporting the USD's short-term appeal.

Geopolitical risks and trade tensions, a more aggressive stance from the European Union, the potential for new US tariffs, and ambiguity in trade negotiations are increasing uncertainty. Conflicts in the Middle East are also driving capital flows into safe-haven assets like gold.

Global ETFs experienced significant inflows of approximately US$38 billion in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, central banks from the G-20 and BRICS countries are continuously increasing their gold reserves as part of their de-dollarization strategies.

In the short term, gold is driven by fundamental factors such as a weak US dollar, low yields, and geopolitical tensions. Gold prices have the potential to rise above $3,400. However, if the pressure subsides and a rebound occurs, a short-term correction is expected to reach around $3,380-3,390.

Investors' next focus will be on the ECB decision on July 24th, and in the coming days, the release of US economic data and comments from the Fed could trigger volatility in XAUUSD.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is now above the upper band. The price broke through the upper band line around 3380 on Monday. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the upper and lower bands moving apart, indicating increased volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) well below the lower band draws an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 60, and the VB Low is at 44. The difference of 16 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 52 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 62, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 54, with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, drawing an upward channel, with the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, reflecting bullish sentiment and increasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA50) is below the middle band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA200) is below the 50-day moving average (MA50) is drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period. There is a golden cross signal on the H4 timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator is showing a value of 73, and the VB Low is showing a value of 39. The difference of 34 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is showing a value of 56, with an upward channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is showing a value of 77, with an upward channel crossing the TSL from below, indicating an uptrend in the overbought level.

The Trade Signal Line is showing a value of 70, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY sentiment has appeared slightly bearish in recent sessions following the recent US PMI report.

In the past few days, since July 17, USD/JPY sentiment has been more bearish. However, yesterday, USD/JPY drew a bullish candle after failing to cross the middle band line. The price formed a high of 147.022, a low of 145.857, and a close of 146.954 on FXOpen's platform.

The USD/JPY's rise appears to have been driven by stable Japanese private sector growth in July. The composite PMI recorded 51.5 for the second consecutive month in July. The increase in service sector activity was offset by a contraction in manufacturing output.

In general, the USD/JPY pair is influenced by the policy differences between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, economic data from both countries, and global risk sentiment.

The Fed's monetary policy appears to remain in a wait-and-see mode, with a neutral to slightly pessimistic outlook on overall economic activity. Although real GDP growth in Q1 2025 showed a decline of 0.5%, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q3 2025 showed growth of 2.4%. The better-than-expected employment report reduced the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming July 30th meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to maintain its target range of 4.25-4.50% by 95.9%.

Inflation, particularly Core PCE, remains above the Fed's 2% target year-on-year, although the latest monthly data shows inflation below target. This may indicate the Fed is still maintaining a wait-and-see approach and may be considering a rate cut towards the end of the year.

US trade tariffs are also in focus, with potential impacts on inflation and the global economy.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has normalized its monetary policy, raising its short-term policy rate to 0.5% after exiting its unconventional policy in March 2024. However, the BOJ appears reluctant to move further, keeping interest rates steady and slowing the pace of government bond purchases. Japanese inflation remains sticky and above the BOJ's 2% target, with Core CPI at 2.37% in May and headline CPI at 3.5%, but economic growth remains fragile. The BOJ will likely remain on hold until at least Q4 2025, unless inflation rises sharply beyond expectations, reflecting the BOJ's dilemma between inflation and fragile growth.

The US-Japanese interest rate differential remains a dominant factor supporting the USD. US interest rates are relatively higher than Japan's, supporting the USD as long as the Fed maintains higher rates than the BOJ.

Today, the US Durable Goods Orders data for June will be released, providing insights into business investment and demand for durable goods. The Fed Balance Sheet report is also due today, and yesterday's US jobless claims are also of interest.

The Tankan (Japan's short-term economic survey) report for June showed that business sentiment deteriorated in some manufacturing industries, largely due to the impact of US tariffs, but overall remained favorable. The Japanese economy is expected to moderate amidst the slowdown in overseas economies.

USDJPY traded near 146.00, correcting higher at the start of the week, ranging sideways between 145 and 149 within the Bollinger Bands.

USDJPY D1

The Japanese Yen is currently above the middle band on the daily timeframe. The Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel with wide spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment and high market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) below the middle band draws a slightly ascending channel, indicating weak bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways movement over longer periods.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 65, and the VB Low is at 44. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 54 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weight than bearish.

The RSI Price Line is at 54 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 56 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

USDJPY H4

The Japanese Yen is above the middle band on the H4 timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands are starting to flatten, with the band spacing shrinking, indicating a sideways trend with decreasing volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the upper band draws a horizontal channel, indicating a more bearish sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a slightly rising channel, indicating weaker bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 62, and its VB Low is 27. The difference of 35 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 45 with a descending channel, indicating a greater bearish weight than bullish weight.

The RSI Price Line is 50 with an ascending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 43 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Bitcoin traded in the $119,000-$120,000 range, approaching a high of $123,000.

In three consecutive trading days, Bitcoin drew bullish candles, but the price movement remained within the $114,000-$120,000 range. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price reached a high of $119,735 and a low of $118,746, closing at $119,706 on FXOpen's platform.

Factors driving Bitcoin's price include institutional demand and spot ETFs. The growing popularity of spot Bitcoin ETFs, such as BlackRock's iShares Trust, has been the primary driver of capital inflows into BTC. Citigroup emphasized that adoption—not mining fees or stock-to-flow—is the primary factor in BTC's current value.

From a regulatory and legal perspective, the passage of the Genius Act provides clarity and new regulations for both stablecoins and ETF products, increasing the appeal of institutional investors. The creation of a Bitcoin reserve by the US government from seized assets further legitimizes cryptocurrency as a long-term strategic asset.

Macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy. US inflation remains high at around 3.0%-3.4% year-on-year, driven by trade tariffs and supply chain pressures. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the end of July, with the first rate cut potentially coming in September 2025. Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation and dollar weakness.

Bitcoin whale activity and market volatility. Large-scale selling by Bitcoin whales occurred throughout July, raising concerns about market confidence, although it is considered an individual action rather than a broad trend. Open interest in the BTC futures market surged to $44.68 billion, indicating high speculation and the potential for sharp volatility ahead. If the Fed holds off on cutting interest rates due to persistently high inflation, Bitcoin remains attractive as an alternative risk-on asset. However, a rate cut could divert capital to traditional assets.

Short-term sentiment for Bitcoin remains positive, supported by spot ETFs and institutional adoption, with potential for a continuation towards the $130,000-$150,000 range by year-end.

Short-term risk is moderate. High volatility in the derivatives market and whale activity could trigger a retracement to the $110,000-$115,000 support zone. Medium-term sentiment depends on further regulatory action and the Fed's interest rate policy. The FOMC outcome at the end of July is also a key trigger. The July CPI release on August 12 could shed light on future monetary policy trends.

BTCUSD D1

Bitcoin is slightly above the middle band line on the daily timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw an ascending channel, with the upper and lower bands approaching each other, indicating declining market volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the lower band draws a slightly ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the 50-day moving average (MA), drawing a flat channel, indicating sideways movement on longer timeframes.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 70, and the VB Low is at 50. The difference of 20 reflects the volatility values on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 60 with an ascending channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 59 with an ascending channel, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 59 with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

BTCUSD H4

Bitcoin is near the upper band on the H4 timeframe. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with relatively narrow band spacing, reflecting flat movement and relatively low volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market, with the price above the MA line. The 200-day moving average (MA) is slightly below the lower band, drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 61, and VB Low shows a value of 40. The difference of 21 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 50 within an upward channel, indicating the price is in a neutral position.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 60, with an upward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from below, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 56, with an upward channel crossing the MBL from below, indicating an uptrend.

 

[radex78]

Gold Extends Fourth Straight Day of Losses as US–EU Trade Deal Confirms

Gold prices fell yesterday, drawing a bearish candle that crossed the 50-day moving average (MA) from the upside. Prices reached a high of 3345, a low of 3301, and a close of 3314.

Gold prices extended losses for the fourth consecutive trading day, falling more than 0.60% amid a trade agreement deal between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) over the weekend, reducing tariffs on EU goods from the proposed 30% to 15%.

The Dollar-denominated Price Index (DXY), which measures the USD's performance against six major currencies, responded to the news, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle, reaching a high of 98.685 from a low of 97.492 on Monday. The DXY even crossed the 20-day moving average (EMA) and 50-day moving average (EMA) from the downside, indicating a strong uptrend.

US government bond yields also showed signs of recovery, hampering gold prices. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.410%. Real US yields rose nearly three basis points to 1.974%.

A Reuters survey on July 28 indicated that risks from global tensions and surging US debt continue to fuel demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Analysts revised their 2025 gold price forecast to $3,220 from $3,065 and projected a potential peak of $4,000 in 2026 if risks worsen.

The June FOMC meeting minutes signaled that some members favored a rate cut as early as July, although the final decision is data-dependent. This news is supportive of gold.

China's central banks and others continue to expand gold reserves as a hedge against dollar dominance and potential US sanctions. In Asia, demand for gold for jewelry and physical gold is relatively weak, but investment through ETFs and financial instruments remains strong.

Investors still view gold as a hedge against market volatility, especially amid ongoing global geopolitical uncertainty. A Reuters survey found that 40% of central banks consider geopolitical risk a primary reason for holding gold.

Overall, based on fundamental data, gold still has a short- to medium-term bullish bias with minimal downside risk unless a new catalyst for weakening investment demand or geopolitical normalization emerges.

Important US data, such as jobless claims and the PMI index, will impact rate cut expectations. Worse data could potentially further rally gold. New trades related to US trade policy and/or fiscal debt could increase safe-haven flows. Gold ETF inflows are also an important signal, although despite weakening physical demand in Asia, a shift towards digital-based investment could support gold prices.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is currently between the middle and lower bands. The Bollinger Bands draw a flat channel with narrow band spacing, indicating movement within the 3220-3450 range.

The 50-day moving average (MA) near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) is well below the lower band, drawing an ascending channel, indicating bullish sentiment over the longer term.

The VB High TDI indicator is at 60, and the VB Low is at 42. The difference of 18 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line is at 51 with a flat channel, indicating a greater bullish weighting than bearishness.

The RSI Price Line is at 42, with a descending channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line is at 53, with a descending channel, indicating a downtrend.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the lower band. Here, the Bollinger Bands draw a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment and high volatility.

The 50-day moving average (MA) above the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. The 200-day moving average (MA) below the 50-day moving average (MA) draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market over a longer period.

The TDI indicator's VB High is 77, and its VB Low is 23. The difference of 54 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line is 50 with a descending channel, indicating the market is in a neutral position.

The RSI Price Line is 32 with a channel sloping upwards, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line is 32 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.