Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

Japanese Yen Consolidates Near Previous Support, Awaits BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks

USDJPY on Monday drew a small bullish candle, halting the previous Friday's decline. The price moved near the previous support around 142.295 on May 7. The next support is estimated at around 139.896, which is the lowest price at the end of April. Yesterday, the USDJPY price formed a high of 143.084, a low of 142.226, and a close of 142.827. The price trend tends to consolidate on the hourly timeframe, which is marked by a Bollinger band squeeze, which reflects low volatility. The UK and US bank holidays yesterday affected trading volumes in the spot forex market.

The delay in the implementation of Donald Trump's tariffs on the European Union had a slight impact on safe-haven assets and helped the USDJPY currency pair recover.

Today, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to deliver the opening remarks at the BoJ–Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (IMES) 2025 Conference in Tokyo. As the central bank’s leader, his speech will be a focus for investors looking for clues on the central bank’s future monetary policy direction. Themed “New Challenges for Monetary Policy,” the event is expected to have a high impact on the currency, especially as inflation in Japan remains high and wage growth shows signs of sustainability.

The BoJ has been pursuing a very loose monetary policy with interest rates near zero for decades, while the Fed has maintained a tight monetary policy by keeping interest rates high to curb inflation amid concerns that Trump’s tariff policies will hamper interest rate cuts. The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s may affect investors’ confidence in the stability of the US economy amid rising fiscal concerns, credit rating pressures, and recent weak economic data. The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates anytime soon, but may potentially do interest rates later this year. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.50% with a 94.4% probability at its June 18 meeting.

The performance of the US dollar is also still questionable amidst the US political and economic conditions, giving negative sentiment, the dollar index (DXY) which tracks the performance of the USD currency against six other major currencies, is still under pressure. DXY is now at a low of 98.694 in a bearish sentiment below the EMA 20. RSI points to level 38 with a downward channel reflecting a market downtrend that is almost approaching the oversold level.

Analysts also predict that Trump's tax cuts and big spending laws are expected to add about $4 trillion to the country's deficit over the next 10 years and swell the federal government's debt.

The Japanese yen is gaining traction as a safe-haven currency amidst the weakening USD sentiment. However, the USD is still the world's reserve currency even though it is currently burdened with concerns about US fiscal discipline and political instability.

Analysts expect the BoJ to take a hawkish stance if Japan reaches a trade deal with the U.S., along with growing acceptance. After the third round of Japan-U.S. talks, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Sunday that Tokyo aims to accelerate tariff talks with the U.S., to reach a result during next month’s Group of Seven meeting.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have risen after Russia launched a major drone and missile strike on Ukrainian cities, and Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours killed at least 38 people in Gaza, including children.

USDJPY D1

The Japanese Yen on the daily timeframe is between the middle and lower bands. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, indicating a range market with high volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 58, and VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 43 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 41 with a descending channel crossing TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 44 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

USDJPY H4

Japanese Yen on the H4 timeframe is between the middle and lower bands. Here Bollinger band draws a descending channel with slightly wide band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment with moderate volatility.

MA 50 near the upper band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 below the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 44, and BN Low shows value 28. Difference 16 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 36 with a descending channel, which means bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows value 37 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 34 with an ascending channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

RBNZ expected to cut rates, NZD/USD in focus

Yesterday, the New Zealand dollar drew a long-bodied bearish candlestick after failing to maintain the 0.60313 barrier. The price formed a high of 0.60063, a low of 0.59398, and a close of 0.59487.

Today the NZDUSD currency pair is in focus because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce the Official Cash Rate, which is expected to lower the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points from the previous 3.50% to 3.25%. From the data available on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand website, it has lowered interest rates three times throughout 2025, with details in January the OCR still at 4.25% then dropping in February to 3.75%, dropping again to 3.50% in April. Interest rate news often has an impact on currency volatility.

The US dollar traded higher yesterday amid Trump's decision to delay the deadline for a trade deal with the EU until July 9. The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.66% from a low of 98.778 to a high of 99.615. Despite the rise visually, the DXY is still on track below the 20 EMA.

Trump has backed off his threat to impose 50% tariffs on all EU imports, which would have cut global growth prospects. US and Eurozone commercial activity accounts for 30% of global trade and 43% of global GDP. Analysts have warned that the dollar’s recovery may be short-lived due to concerns about the US debt ballooning as the tax cuts are expected to increase debt by $36.8 trillion over the next decade.

Yesterday the US Census Bureau reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods fell in April after four straight monthly increases, dropping $19.9 billion, or 6.3 percent, to $296.3 billion. This followed a 7.6 percent increase in March. Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.2 percent. Excluding defense, new orders fell 7.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also down after four straight monthly increases, led the decline, dropping $20.3 billion, or 17.1 percent, to $98.8 billion.

These figures will likely dictate the direction of the USD ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes and the key Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) figures, due later this week.

In New Zealand, investors are bracing for a dovish statement. The bank may point to further monetary easing, citing the potential impact of an uncertain trade scenario that could put pressure on the New Zealand Dollar. The RBNZ is expected to make a small adjustment to its key interest rate. Inflation was slightly higher than expected in the first quarter, inflation remained within an acceptable range. The weak real economy provides no reason for real interest rates to remain restrictive. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in the first quarter, inflation was slightly higher than expected in the first quarter, inflation remained within an acceptable range. The weak real economy provides no reason for real interest rates to remain restrictive. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in the first quarter.

NZDUSD D1

New Zealand dollar in daily timeframe is above middle band line, there is a slight gap down in this pair with opening price lower than closing price preceding candle. Bollinger band draws flat channel with narrow band spacing reflecting sideways market with low volatility.

MA 50 near lower band draws rising channel indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 above lower band draws flat channel indicating sideways market in longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 67, and VB Low shows value 47. Difference 20 reflects volatility value in daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 57 with rising channel, means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 53 with curved channel to the lower side crossing TSL from the upper side indicating downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 54 with rising channel indicating uptrend market is fading.

NZDUSD H4

The New Zealand dollar on the H4 timeframe is between the middle and lower bands, bouncing up after approaching the MA 50 line. Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with wide band spacing reflecting bullish sentiment with high market volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 is slightly below MA 50 draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71 and VB Low shows a value of 41. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 56 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish with a potential for a decline.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 45 with a fading downward channel, indicating a somewhat fading downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 50 with a downward channel crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Canadian dollar strengthens as federal court strikes down Trump tariffs

On Thursday's trading, USDCAD drew a bearish candle with wicks on top and bottom of the candle. The length of the body swallowed the previous candle, reflecting a reversal signal. The price formed a high of 1.38615 low of 1.37848 closing of 1.38057.

The strengthening of the Canadian dollar is in line with the latest news about Trump's tariffs being blocked by a federal court. The ruling by a three-judge panel of the US Court of International Trade on Wednesday, May 28, stated that Trump did not have the authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs worldwide on April 2. The tariffs impose high taxes on China, Mexico, and Canada.

Oddly enough, after the announcement, the Canadian dollar weakened and moved up to 1.38238 from a low of 1.37848. However, over time, the Canadian dollar strengthened and closed at a lower price than the opening. There was even a gap in the USDCAD pair where the opening price was lower than the closing price. The gap is clearly visible on the H1 timeframe or lower.

President Donald Trump’s tariff policy involving threats of tariffs on several countries has been seriously challenged after a federal judge at the U.S. Court of International Trade (USCIT) struck down the Trump administration’s abuse of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad import taxes globally.

The Trump administration is expected to appeal to a higher court as its next course of action. United States (US) President Donald Trump on Thursday, May 29, filed an emergency motion with the U.S. Court of Appeals to overturn the court’s decision blocking his global tariff policy.

The political turmoil in the U.S. has investors skeptical about the long-term prospects amid continued uncertainty over trade policy. Investors will now await further news to see what legal mechanisms the Trump administration will try to circumvent the USCIT.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, briefly rose to 100.540 after the court announcement, but finally fell sharply to a low of 99.21,7, crossing the EMA 20 from the upside.

Meanwhile, yesterday's US GDP Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025. And Unemployment Claims of 240k were higher than the forecast of 229k from the previous revision of 226k. This economic data is less supportive of the USD, so the performance of the US dollar is still under pressure, including the Canadian dollar. However, USDCAD remains in a tight short-term technical range.

Today, investors will focus on several highlights from both Canada and the US. From Canada, the GDP release is expected to be 0.1% from the previous -0.2%. And the PCE index, which is the Fed's preferred measure for its relationship with interest rate policy. The PCE index is expected to be 0.1%.

USDCAD D1

The Canadian dollar on the daily timeframe is below the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a flat channel with a fairly wide band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with moderate volatility.

The MA 50 below the upper band draws a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The MA 200 near the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 53, and the VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 40 with an upward channel, which means the bearish weight is greater than the bullish, with potential for an increase.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 42 with an upward channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 39 with a slight downward channel crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a weak downtrend market.

USDCAD H4

The Canadian dollar on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws an upward channel with a fairly wide band spacing, indicating bullish sentiment with moderate volatility.

The MA 50 is slightly above the middle band, drawing a downward channel indicating bearish sentiment. The MA 200 near the upper band draws a flat downward channel, indicating a sideways market in a longer period. There is a death cross signal on this timeframe.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63, and the VB Low shows a value of 18. The difference of 45 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 41 with an upward channel, which means the bearish weight is greater than the bullish, with potential for an increase.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 48 with a flat channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend that is starting to flatten.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 52 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices are steady in the market range. Where will it go next?

On Friday's trading, gold prices fell, drawing a bearish candle with a medium body and a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. Gold failed to extend its rise after reaching a high of 3330 on Thursday. Yesterday's gold price formed a high of 3322, a low of 3271, and a close of 3288 near the middle band line.

Gold in the last few days has moved more in the range above 3200 and below 3400. The flat Bollinger band reflects the market moving in a sideways phase. On Thursday's gold price movement, gold rose, drawing a bullish candle, but sentiment turned negative after US President Donald Trump complained that China violated the agreement negotiated between the two parties in Switzerland.

On the other hand, Trump's tariff policy has caused economic uncertainty. The US Federal Court of Appeals reinstated most of the tariffs imposed by Trump on April 2, "Liberation Day," after a decision by the US Court of International Trade, which blocked most of the duties as illegal. As a result, US equities fell, while the US Dollar recovered from near its daily low.

The Core PCE Index released on Friday showed actual data of 0.1% as expected. The data fell in April compared to the March meeting. Despite the softer inflation environment, Gold prices failed to gain traction as short US Dollar positions in the futures market were trimmed last week, according to Commitments of Traders data.

The report showed that the US core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, rose at a modest pace of 2.5% on an annualized basis, as expected, compared to 2.7% in March, which was revised down from 2.6%. In the same period, the PCE inflation data rose by 2.1%, slower than the 2.2% expected and the previous release of 2.3%.

The impact of the US PCE inflation data is expected to be limited in the Fed’s next monetary policy. Fed officials appear more concerned about inflation caused by uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, is still moving below the EMA 20, which reflects that the DXY is on a downward path. The DXY rose slightly by 0.11% on Friday in the range of 99.443 after rising to 100.540 on Thursday.

Today, investors will wait for the release of US data. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Manufacturing and Services PMI data for May on Monday and Wednesday, which may affect gold in the short term. However, today, some banks in New Zealand, China, and Europe are on holiday, which could affect trading volumes in the gold market.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is near the middle band line, which is the mean value of deviation. Bollinger band draws a flat channel with a fairly wide band spacing, reflecting a sideways market on moderate market volatility.

MA 50 between the middle and lower bands draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment. MA 200 far below the lower band draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71, and VB Low shows a value of 43. The difference of 28 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 57 with a flat channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 51 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 53 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

The price of gold on the daily timeframe is near the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a flat channel with a shrinking band space, reflecting a sideways market with low volatility.

The MA 50 is slightly above the middle band, and the price draws an upward channel reflecting a weak bullish sentiment. The MA 200 below the middle band draws a flat channel reflecting a sideways market on a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65, and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 51 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish, with a potential downtrend.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 48 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 47 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Canadian dollar is on the 1.36000 support line ahead of interest rates

The USDCAD currency pair on Tuesday moved steadily around 1.37118 near the lower band line. USDCAD drew a small bullish hammer candle with a short wick, reflecting low volatility closed slightly higher than the opening price. The price formed a high of 1.37429 low of 1.37012, and closed at 1.37173.

The wildfires in Canada have not had much impact on the Canadian dollar so far, although the wildfires in Alberta have shut down nearly 350,000 barrels per day of oil production, equivalent to about 7% of the province's total output. While not a major impact on global supply, the disruption is significant enough to fuel the ongoing rally in oil prices.

The Canadian dollar is one of the commodity currencies whose value is influenced by the value of the country's leading commodities, including crude oil exports. Crude oil and crude bitumen are among Canada's largest export products, accounting for about 14% of total exports. Energy products, including oil, account for about 22% of total exports. Canada is one of the world's largest oil producers, ranking fourth after Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US.

However, the Canadian dollar is also correlated to the US dollar; a good performance in the USD currency can cause the CAD to weaken, conversely, a bad performance in the USD can cause the CAD to strengthen. Yesterday's US economic data showed stronger US JOLTS data, fueling the strengthening of the dollar index (DXY). The US dollar index yesterday rose around 0.54% from a low of 98.583 to a high of 99.328.

Looking at the geopolitical risks, the escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war have added to concerns about potential disruptions to Russia's oil infrastructure, which could disrupt oil distribution. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated with the recent drone attack on a Russian airfield, followed by a retaliatory attack in Kyiv. Meanwhile, mixed signals from the Iran-US nuclear negotiations also keep market players on guard.

Today, investors will focus on US economic data, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to rise by 111k from the previous revision of 62k. The ADP report often has a temporary impact on the value of the USD. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI is expected to slightly increase to 52.0 from the previous 51.6. On the other hand, the BoC (Bank of Canada) will announce the Overnight Rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.75%. Unchanged interest rates may not have a major impact on the currency. In addition to interest rates, investors are also looking for subtle clues from the BOC Rate Statement for hawkish or dovish policies.

USDCAD D1

The Canadian dollar on the daily timeframe is near the lower band line. Here, the Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with the upper and lower bands spaced away from each other, indicating a sideways market with increasing volatility.

The MA 50 between the upper and middle bands draws a descending channel reflecting bearish sentiment. The MA 200 near the upper band draws a flat channel reflecting a sideways market on a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 53, and the VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 40 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 36 with a flat channel crossing the MBL and TSL from the upper side, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 29 with a flat channel crossing the MBL from the upper side, indicating a sideways market.

USDCAD H4

The Canadian dollar on the H4 timeframe is below the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a descending channel with a wide band spacing reflecting a downtrend market with high volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws a descending channel indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 62, and VB Low shows a value of 28. The difference of 34 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 45 with an upward channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish, with a potential uptrend.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 37 with a downward channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 39 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USD/JPY returns to support after disappointing US data

The Japanese Yen as one of the safe-haven currencies, strengthened again yesterday after the release of disappointing US data. USDJPY drew a bearish candle with a long body and a small shadow on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 144.383, a low of 142.605, and a closing of 142.722. The candlestick created a low near Tuesday's low, which could be a support level in this zone.

The strengthening of the Japanese Yen was triggered by factors such as a series of economic news that increased trade tensions caused by Trump's tariff policy, giving a boost to safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen.

Yesterday's ADP Employment Change data on Wednesday showed a softening in the US private sector employment situation. The report showed an increase of only 37k jobs in May, far below the forecast of 115k jobs. This was also lower than the previous data revision of 60k. Other US economic data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May, reporting a reading of 49.9 for the ISM Services PMI, which was much lower than the expected print of 52.0. This indicates that business conditions and optimism in the US services sector have fallen into contractionary territory.

The US dollar index (DXY) which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies is still on a downward path. DXY fell from a high of 99.292 to a low of 98.673 below the EMA 20.

Meanwhile, the Fed at its June 18 meeting is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the current 425-450 with a probability of 97.9%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has reaffirmed its commitment to raising interest rates in response to rising inflation.

Related to Trump's 50% tariff policy on steel and aluminum, Japan remains vulnerable to rising costs that could threaten its export-based industry. On Tuesday, Ueda told the market: "The latest tariff policy will put downward pressure on the Japanese economy through several different channels". However, he also stated that the central bank "is expected to continue raising interest rates if underlying inflation accelerates to 2% as projected."

Today, the US will release another important economic data, Unemployment Claims, which measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; it is expected to fall to 236k from the previous revised reading of 240k. A lower actual reading could support the USD and vice versa.

USDJPY D1

The Japanese Yen on the daily timeframe is now between the middle and lower band lines. Here, the Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with wide band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with high market volatility.

The MA 50 near the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. The MA 200 above the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 57, and the VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 46 with an upward channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish, with potential for an increase.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 43 with a downward channel crossing the TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 46 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

USDJPY H4

The Japanese Yen on the H4 timeframe is on a path near the lower band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a flat channel with a fairly wide band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with moderate volatility.

The MA 50 is slightly above the middle band, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market with bearish potential. The MA 200 is slightly above the MA 50, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market in a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 64, and the VB Low shows a value of 32. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 48 with a descending channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 39 with a descending channel that fades across the TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a fading downtrend.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 47 with a descending channel that crosses the MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Silver Price Draws New All-Time High Throughout 2025

Silver price on Friday soared to a new all-time high at 36,328. This value is the highest price record since 2012 and is an interesting note because Silver is one of the precious metals that are widely traded among forex traders. High volatility and profit potential make it one of the assets in forex that has high volatility. Although it is in line with the risk.

On Friday, Silver drew a bullish candle extending Thursday's increase. The price formed a high of 36,328 low of 35,585, and closed at 35,967. The price crossed the upper band, indicating a strong rally.

Silver's momentum was driven by strong industrial demand, ongoing supply shortages, and increasing investor interest as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty. Silver's vital role in solar energy, electronics, and electrification supports more than half of its global demand. Last week, US data showed weak US economic data, including rising jobless claims, weaker private employment, and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. However, non-farm payrolls beat estimates with a rise of 139,000 in May, although April was revised down to 147,000. In addition, Trump's policies that caused economic uncertainty also gave a boost to safe-haven assets, including Silver.

The rise in Silver prices has also boosted shares of mining companies such as Endeavor Silver (NYSE: EXK), First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG), Hecla Mining, Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE), and more.

Gold and Silver often move in tandem. Where gold has risen by 44% from last year, and Silver has hit a new all-time high since 2012. This increase is supported by the widening tariff war by the US and consistent buying by central banks. In addition, there are large inflows into silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which also support Silver. According to Bloomberg, holdings in these ETFs increased by 2.2 million ounces on Wednesday. In addition, money managers have increased their bullish positions on Comex silver futures in the week ended May 23.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, gold and silver are still the favorites as safe-haven assets. The Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East that have not shown any signs of peace are increasingly giving space to safe-haven assets.

Today, there is no important news scheduled in the economic calendar at Forexfactory; bank holidays in Australia, Switzerland, France, and Germany may affect the volume of transactions in the spot forex market.

XAGUSD D1

Silver price on the daily timeframe is above the upper band line. Bollinger band shows between an upper and lower band that are moving away from each other, reflecting increasing market volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band line draws a flat channel reflecting sideways market. However, the price moves away from the line, reflecting bullish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws a slightly rising channel reflecting bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 65, and VB Low shows value 43. Difference 23 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 54 with an ascending channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 70 drew ascending channel crossing TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market entering the overbought level.

Trade Signal Line shows value 62 with an ascending channel indicating an uptrend market.

XAGUSD H4

On the H4 timeframe, the Silver price is below the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws an upward channel with a wide band spacing reflecting bullish sentiment with high market volatility.

The MA 50 above the lower band draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment. The MA 200 below the lower band draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment in a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 86, and the VB Low shows a value of 47. The difference of 39 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 66 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 75 with a downward channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating that the price is at an overbought level and trying to go down.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 77 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Can Bitcoin reach $150k this year?

Bitcoin price has been rising again in the past few days, indicating bullish sentiment on Bitcoin. Yesterday, Bitcoin drew a long-bodied bullish candle across the middle band line. The price formed a high of 108756 low of 105336 closing of 108686. This is almost approaching the resistance of 111786, which was formed on May 23.

Bitcoin price dropped to a low of 100376 on June 5 and slowly rose, moving up from the lower band towards the upper band target. The rise in Bitcoin price seems to give hope to crypto assets in the long term. The Fear and Greed Index has shown a level of 55, which reflects that investors are currently still neutral with a higher weighting of greed. In the past 7 days, Bitcoin has increased by 5.07% according to Coinmarketcap data.

Many crypto analysts predict that Bitcoin can reach $150k or even higher in the current cycle or the future. Some predictions suggest that Bitcoin could reach this target by the end of 2025.

Some of the reasons underlying the prediction include:

• Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years, reduces the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, and historically, halving is followed by a significant price increase. The last Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024.
• Institutional adoption. Several large institutions are starting to be interested in Bitcoin, and the launch of the Bitcoin ETF on the US spot market has opened the door for more institutional investors to access Bitcoin.
• Bitcoin's role as a store of value. Global economic uncertainty, inflation, and central bank monetary policy, some investors to believe Bitcoin can be a safe-haven asset.
• Increased hashrate. The increase in hashrate used to secure the network shows miners' confidence in Bitcoin's prospects.
• Political and regulatory support. Some analysts argue that potential changes in political policy, such as in the US, will support crypto regulation, which can boost Bitcoin prices.

However, Bitcoin is an asset that is highly volatile and has risks. Predictions may be wrong and not in accordance with expectations because predictions are basically speculation. Although predictions by major analysts such as Robert Kiyosaki, Arthur Haves, and others. In addition, macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and other major events can affect the value of Bitcoin.

BTCUSD D1

Bitcoin on the daily timeframe is below the upper band. Here Bollinger band draws a flat channel with wide band spacing, reflecting sideways market in range with high volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 is a bit below the lower band, draws a slightly rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment in the longer period. Here is the Golden Cross signal.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 82, and VB Low shows value 47. Difference 35 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 64 with the flat channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 62 with rising channel crossing TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 53 with a rising channel indicating an uptrend market.

BTCUSD H4

Bitcoin on the H4 timeframe is above the upper band. Here, the Bollinger band expands, reflecting increasing volatility. It can be seen from the upper and lower bands that are moving away from each other.

MA 50 is slightly above the middle band, drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. There is a golden cross signal on this timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68, and VB Low shows a value of 37. The difference of 31 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 52 with an upward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 73 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend entering the overbought level.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 63 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

GBP/USD trades in a range awaiting UK and US data

GBPUSD is trading in a range market between the middle and upper band lines. Yesterday, GBPUSD drew a bullish candle with a short body almost the same as the preceding candle. The price formed a high of 1.35672 low of 1.34645 close of 1.3585.

Poor US inflation data and increasing bets of a Fed rate cut in September, coupled with a US-China trade framework agreement, kept the US Dollar on the defensive throughout the day. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected in May. The headline figure rose by 2.4% YoY, up from 2.3% a month ago but below forecasts for a 2.5% increase. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose by 2.8% YoY, unchanged from April's data.

The US Dollar struggled to outperform its major peers after the inflation data. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against six other major currencies, is still below the EMA 20. DXY fell 0.41% from a high of 99.221 to a low of 98.525. The decline in DXY affected other USD pairs, including the British Pound.

Trump’s seemingly ever-changing tariff policies are still in the spotlight. According to Bloomberg, A string of below-forecast inflation readings adds to evidence that consumers are yet to feel the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

On the other hand, the UK economy, Analysts remain concerned about the UK’s weak fiscal position, and an expected slowdown in the economy is likely to push interest rates lower, which could be offset by a large fiscal stimulus package. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep interest rates on hold next week.

Today, the Office for National Statistics will release GDP data, which is forecast to contract by -0.1% from the previous revision of 0.2%. Meanwhile, investors will also be waiting for the release of US PPI and jobless claims data. US PPI is expected to be higher than the previous release, and jobless claims are predicted to fall. If this forecast is correct, it may encourage USD strengthening.

GBPUSD D1

The Pound Sterling on the daily timeframe is now between the middle and upper band lines. Here, the Bollinger bands draw an upward channel with the band spacing shrinking, reflecting bullish sentiment with fading volatility.

The MA 50 near the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. The MA 200, far below the lower band, draws a flat channel indicating a sideways market on a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 66, and the VB Low shows a value of 51. The difference of 15 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 58 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 58 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 59 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

GBPUSD H4

The pound sterling on the H4 timeframe is on track near the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a flat channel with a rather narrow band spacing, reflecting a sideways market with low market volatility.

MA 50 is near the middle band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 is far below the lower band, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

Market Base Line shows a value of 63 with a descending channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish, with a potential decline.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 53 with a curved upward channel indicating a fading uptrend.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 47 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold crosses $3,400 amid Israel-Iran war risks

Gold prices surged to $3,446 on Friday amid heightened geopolitical risks between Israel and Iran that could trigger a longer war. Gold prices drew a long-bodied bullish candle on Friday that crossed the upper band line. Prices formed a high of 3,446, a low of 3,379, and a close of 3,433.

The rise in gold prices was driven by several factors, including geopolitical tensions: the Israel-Iran conflict triggered a rush to safe havens like gold, pushing prices closer to record highs. The weakening USD pressure also further supported the rise in gold prices. Although gold has the potential to rise, some analysts consider gold prices to be overvalued and have suggested a possible correction of 12 to 15% in the coming months.

Israeli attacks on Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and senior officials have heightened tensions in the region. Following the attacks, XAU/USD hit a five-week high of $3,446 before retreating slightly to current levels as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. On the other hand, Iran's retaliatory attack on Tel Aviv has further increased the geopolitical risks in the region.

Meanwhile, the weakening of the USD is related to the US economic data released last week. Inflation in the United States continues to ease after the release of the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index figures for May. Recently, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey revealed that households are increasingly optimistic about the economy, but they remain concerned about higher prices.

This week, traders will be watching the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, where officials will update their economic projections on Thursday. In addition, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, housing, and employment data can help determine the direction of Gold.

The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.50% at its June 19 meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range is 96.9%.

Goldman Sachs projects that the price of Gold bullion will rise to $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. Bank of America (BofA) estimates Gold at $4,000 in the next 12 months.

Gold prices are still expected to have the potential to rise, but the possibility of a short-term correction remains, especially when geopolitical risks subside or the USD strengthens.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is now above the upper band line. Here Bollinger band is expanding, reflecting potential increasing volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 far below the lower band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 62, and VB Low shows value 46. Difference 16 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 54 with falling channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish, with potential decline.

RSI Price Line shows value 60 with rising channel crossing TSL and MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 55 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band. Here Bollinger band draws an upward channel with the band spacing away from each other reflecting bullish sentiment with increasing market volatility.

MA 50 below the middle band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 near the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 71 and VB Low shows value 34. Difference 37 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 53 with an upward channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish, with potential uptrend.

RSI Price Line shows value 69 with a flat channel crossing TSL from the lower side, indicating the sideways market is at an overbought level.

Trade Signal Line shows value 69 with upward channel crossing MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.