Daily Analysis Forex Mix

[radex78]

USD/CHF steady ahead of CPI data release

USDCHF on Friday drew a bearish candle with shadows on the upper and lower sides, where the lower shadow is longer than the upper shadow. The price formed a high of 0.83180 low of 0.82057 and closed at 0.82539.

The Swiss Franc pair weakened as the US Dollar continued its correction after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April in early trading, but the Swiss Franc eventually strengthened to close lower than the opening price.

The NFP report showed that the economy added 177k new jobs, much higher than the estimate of 130k, but slightly lower than March's reading of 185k. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.2%, as expected.

The Fed is predicted to keep interest rates on hold despite President Trump trying to pressure the Fed to cut rates soon. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed holding rates at 4.50% is 96.8% at its May 7 meeting.

Trump wrote via Truth.Social "Gasoline prices just hit $1.98 a gallon, lowest in years, grocery prices (and eggs!) are down, energy is down, mortgage rates are down, employment is strong, and lots of other good news, as billions of dollars are flowing in from tariffs. As I said, we are just in the transition phase, just getting started!!! Consumers have been waiting years to see prices come down. No inflation, the Fed must lower rates!!!

The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against a basket of six major currencies on Friday drew a bearish candle with an open of 100.179 high of 100.328 low of 99.397 close of 100.036. The DXY tried to rise but was held back by the 20 EMA, which acted as dynamic resistance at 100.471.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc's performance in the last week's movement tended to be mixed, with steady movement in the market range of 0.81953 - 0.83346 near the middle band line.

Today ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the Swiss Franc is slightly lower than the open. The Swiss CPI is expected to grow by 0.2% month-on-month after remaining flat in March.

USDCHF D1

The Swiss Franc pair on the daily timeframe is now near the middle band line in a consolidation movement for several trading days. Bollinger bands show decreasing volatility as seen from the upper and lower bands approaching each other, although the MA 20 draws a descending channel.

MA 50 above the upper band draws a descending channel crossing the MA 200 from the upper side, indicating a golden cross signaling in bearish sentiment. MA 200 above MA 50 draws a flat change,l indicating a sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 49, and VB low shows a value of 19. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 34 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 42 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 40 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

USDCHF H4

The Swiss Franc pair on the H4 timeframe is moving steadily near the middle band line. The Bollinger band squeeze formed on this timeframe indicates low market volatility, waiting for a breakout.

MA 50 near the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 is far above the upper band, drawing a descending change, indicating a bearish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 63, and VB Low shows a value of 41. The difference of 22 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 52 with a descending channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish, with a potential decline.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 41 with a descending channel crossing TSL and MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 52 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Ahead of unemployment data, NZD/USD rises to 0.60133

The New Zealand dollar rose yesterday, drawing a medium-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The pair formed a high of 0.60133 low of 0.59435, and closed at 0.60047.

In the Asian market, the New Zealand dollar fell to a low of 0.59435 from the previous open of 0.59650 along with disappointing Chinese economic data. China's services sector grew at its weakest pace since September, with the Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index in April falling to 50.7 from 51.9 in March, well below the forecast of 51.7.

The New Zealand dollar is influenced by the Chinese economy as the country is New Zealand's largest trading partner; the China-US trade war could affect the New Zealand economy due to trade correlations across the countries.

The dollar index (DXY) is still under pressure, moving below the EMA 20. The DXY, which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, drew a bearish candle yesterday, falling from a high of 100.097 to a low of 99.172. The weakening of the US dollar against other major currencies indicates that this currency is losing its power or level of confidence as a safe-haven currency. The USD's performance has been poor during the Trump administration so far.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its next rate release at 4.50%, despite President Trump trying to pressure Powell. However, Powell is expected to budge, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged is 96.8% while the forecast for a cut is only 3.1%.

The US-China trade war is still a concern in NZDUSD trading, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump at the weekend about approaching a trade deal. However, Trump rejected any immediate talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed that they were reviewing the US proposal to restart negotiations.

Today, New Zealand will release data on the unemployment rate and employment change, which are important indicators of the New Zealand economy. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to rise to 5.3% from the previous 5.1%. If the actual value is lower than the forecast, it means that the economy is improving, which in turn can affect the New Zealand dollar. Employment Change is expected to rise 0.1%, a higher-than-expected actual reading is good for the currency.

NZDUSD D1

The NZDUSD pair on the daily timeframe is between the upper and middle band lines. The Bollinger bands are contracting where the upper and lower bands are approaching each other, reflecting decreasing volatility.

The MA 50 near the lower band draws an upward change, indicating bullish sentiment. The MA 200 below the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market on a longer period.

The VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 71, and the VB Low shows a value of 39. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

The Market Base Line shows a value of 55 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

The RSI Price Line shows a value of 63 with an upward channel crossing the TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

The Trade Signal Line shows a value of 58 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

NZDUSD H4

NZDUSD on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Here, the Bollinger bands are slightly expanding, indicated by the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating that market volatility may increase.

MA 50 near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 is a bit far below the lower band, drawing a slightly rising channel, indicating a weak bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 64, and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 29 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 50 with a rising channel, meaning the market is in a neutral condition with bullish potential.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 64 with a rising channel crossing the TSL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 59 with a rising channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

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Canadian dollar weakens on US-UK trade deal

The Canadian dollar declined on Thursday, and the USDCAD currency pair rose, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 1.39329 low of 1.38131, and closed at 1.39188.

Progress in the US-UK trade deal has given a boost to the broad market sentiment towards the US dollar. The US dollar (USD) is in broad demand on hopes that the Trump administration will speed up the signing of a trade deal to avoid self-imposed trade tariffs.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, rose 0.77% from a low of 99.609 to a high of 100.763, trying to cross the 20 EMA and giving an indication of a bullish trend transition. The RSI drew an ascending channel at the 47 level, potentially crossing the neutral 50 level.

While details of the deal are scarce, the Trump administration rushed to announce a forthcoming trade deal with the United Kingdom (UK) on Thursday, fueling market expectations that President Trump will find a way to avoid self-imposed tariffs. Despite the impending trade deal, all goods imported into the US from the UK are still subject to a 10% tariff. The exemption is for key UK goods, such as refined ethanol, which the US has not imported from the UK for more than 15 years.

While US-Canada trade tensions remain high, the US relies heavily on key imports from Canada, including assembled cars, auto parts, light crude oil from the Alberta oilsands, and critical crop fertilizers. Ninety percent of US potash supplies are imported, as the country cannot produce enough to meet its internal demand. A grace period for reciprocal tariffs expires on June 9, following a 90-day tariff moratorium.

Today, investors are awaiting the release of Canadian employment data. Employment Change is expected to rise 6.1k from a previously revised -32.6k. And the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 6.8% from the previous revised 6.7% according to forexfactory.

USDCAD D1

USDCAD on the daily timeframe is now near the upper band line. Here Bollinger band draws a narrow flat channel, indicating low market volatility.

MA 50 is above the upper band, drawing a descending channel indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 below MA 50 draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 50, and VB Low shows value 27. The difference of 23 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 38 with a descending channel, which means bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows value 49 with ascending channel crossing MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 41 with ascending channel crossing MBL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

USDCAD H4

The Canadian dollar on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Here Bollinger band is expanding as seen from the upper and lower bands moving away from each other, indicating increasing market volatility.

MA 50 is near the middle band line, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 is far above the upper band, drawing a downward channel, indicating a downtrend market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 65, and VB Low shows a value of 35. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 50 with an ascending channel, meaning the price is at a neutral level with potential bullish sentiment.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 70 with an ascending channel indicating an uptrend market in the oversold zone.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 64 with an ascending channel crossing the MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

USDCNH opens with a wide bearish gap today

The USDCNH price movement last week tended to move in bullish sentiment due to the strengthening of the US dollar amid news of the US-UK trade deal, which supported the strengthening of the US dollar. On Friday, the USDCNH price drew a small-bodied bearish candle with a short wick on the top candle. The price formed a high of 7.2526, a low of 7.2338, closing at 7.2383, moving between the middle and lower bands.

At the opening of the market today, USDCNH experienced a bearish gap where the price opened at 7.2226, far below Friday's close at 7.2383. The strengthening of the Chinese currency was supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data for April, which showed Beijing's export growth remained strong amid fierce tariff exchanges with the US.

Last Saturday, according to CNBC, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate the two countries' tariff policies. During his visit to Switzerland this time, Prime Minister He Lifeng is also reported to have met with WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in Geneva. The WTO is under the UN and has so far acted as a trade supervisor among its member countries.

The outcome of the meeting has not been revealed. According to Reuters, the details of the location of the meeting, which took place in the Swiss diplomatic area, were not disclosed to the public. However, as reported by Reuters, after the lunch break, the two delegations were said to have returned to the residence of the Swiss Ambassador to the UN, located in Cologny, although smiling when leaving the hotel, Bessent refused to speak to reporters.

Trump himself, through a post on the Truth Social social media on Friday (9/5), signaled that the tariff policy might be reviewed. United States (US) President Donald Trump proposed an 80% tariff on Chinese goods ahead of negotiations between the two countries.

The fierce US-China tariff war has become a hot topic in the financial market because the two countries have the world's largest economies. The tension of the tariff war was started by Trump after announcing a new, higher import tariff policy against various countries, including China.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six other major currencies, showed a decline on Friday by drawing a bearish candle with a wick on the top and bottom of the candle. DXY formed a high of 100.862 low of 100.086 close of 100.424. Although it has crossed the EMA 20 but the reversal has not occurred fully. RSI is now at level 47, the price trend is still below the downtrend level.

Today one tentative news will be released by China regarding new loans, which measures the value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the previous month, estimated to increase 710 B from the previous revision of 364 B.

USDCNH D1

USDCNH on the daily timeframe is now between the middle and lower bands. Bollinger band draws a bit of a descending channel with wide band spacing, indicating weak bearish sentiment with rather high market volatility.

MA 50 near the middle band draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market. MA 200 near price above the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 65, and VB Low shows value 35. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 50 with the flat channel, which means price sentiment is in the neutral zone.

RSI Price Line shows value 42 with curved channel to the lower side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 39 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

USDCNH H4

USDCNH on the H4 timeframe is below the middle band. The Bollinger band on this timeframe draws a slightly upward channel with a narrow band spacing, indicating weak bullish sentiment with low volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band draws a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment. There is a death cross signal on this timeframe. MA 200 is slightly above the upper band, drawing a flat channel indicating a sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 64, and VB Low shows a value of 19. The difference of 45 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 44 with an upward channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish, with a potential reversal.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 48 with a downward channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 54 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

Pound sterling falls as US-China deal to cut tariffs for 90 days

Yesterday, GBPUSD fell, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with a small shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.32993, a low of 1.31401, closing at 1.31749, trying to cross the lower band line.

The pound sterling fell as news of a 90-day tariff delay agreement between the US and China, the world's two largest economies. The US reduced tariffs from 115% to 30% on Chinese goods, while Beijing cut tariffs to 10% on US imports. This deal is a 90-day delay, effective May 14.

This news has had a positive impact on the US dollar and some US trade assets because the deal could avert a recession that has been a concern for investors.

According to Reuters, Washington and China have agreed to lower import duties by 115%. This shows that the current tariffs in the US and China are 10% and 30% respectively. However, Bessent added that the fentanyl issue has not been resolved, so the tariffs on China remain at 30%.

The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, has risen strongly as indicated by a long bullish candle that crossed the 20 EMA from the downside, approaching the 50 EMA line. The DXY rose to a high of 101.977 from a low of 100.510. The RSI is pointing to the 57 level with the rising channel reflecting a more bullish DXY.

The expected further impact of the US-China deal is to ease concerns about high consumer inflation and raise hopes for the Fed to ease monetary policy.

Today, investors will focus on UK and US economic news. The UK will release news on Claimant Count Change, which measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits during the previous month. This data is expected to be higher than the previous revision of 18.7k to 22.3k. Average earnings are expected to fall 5.2% from 5.6%. And the unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 4.5% from the previous 4.4%. Investors will also be looking at BOE Governor Bailey's speech in a casual chat at the Foreign Bankers Association in Amsterdam.

While the US will release CPI data, which is forecasted to see core CPI rise by 0.3% from 0.1% previously, monthly CPI is predicted to rise by 0.3% from -0.1%, and annual CPI is predicted to be 2.4% same as previously revised.

GBPUSD D1

GBPUSD on the daily timeframe is near the lower band. Bollinger band draws a narrow flat channel reflecting low market volatility.

MA 50 below the lower band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment with the golden cross signal. MA 200 below MA 50 draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 72, and VB Low shows value 45. Difference 27 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 59 with falling channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish, with potential reversal.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 47 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 53 with descending channel crossing MBL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

GBPUSD H4

GBPUSD pair on the H4 timeframe is near the lower band. Here Bollinger band draws a curved channel to the lower side with slightly widening band spacing, indicating bearish sentiment with slightly increasing market volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band draws a descending channel, indicating bearish sentiment. MA 200 near the lower band draws a slightly ascending channel, indicating an uptrend market on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 59, and VB Low shows value 35. Difference 24 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 47 with the flat channel, which means bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows value 33 with descending channel crossing MBL and TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market near the oversold level.

Trade Signal Line shows value 38 with a descending channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

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Australia's unemployment rate is expected to be stable, AUD/USD moves in the range

The AUDUSD pair during this week's trading moved within a range of the Bollinger band, the price was in the range of 0.63436 - 0.65146. Yesterday, AUDUSD drew a bearish candle with a shorter body than the previous one, and there was a shadow on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.65009, a low of 0.64224, and a close of 0.64274.

The US dollar is still struggling to regain its position amid the Trump administration and its controversies. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, was at 101.040, having fallen to 100.271. The DXY is now above the 20 EMA, below the 50 EMA, with the RSI pointing to the 51 level.

US inflation data on Tuesday showed that core CPI fell 0.2% from the expected 0.3%, from the previously revised 0.1%. Month-on-month CPI was 0.2% from the expected 0.3% and the previous revision of -0.1%. And year-on-year CPI fell by 2.3% from the expected 2.4% and the previous revision of 2.4%. Weak inflation had brought the dollar index up to 101.977, along with the tariff agreement with China with a 90-day delay.

Meanwhile, the Australian Wage Price Index (WPI) rose to 0.9% in the quarter from the forecast 0.8% and the previous revision of 0.7%. The WPI measures changes in the price of labor, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labor force, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release its monthly employment report for April, which is expected to see Australia add 20k new jobs, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on April 1, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.10%. RBA officials noted that labor market conditions remain tight. The RBA will meet again on May 20, where it will announce the Cash Rate, which is expected to remain on its previous policy path.

Elsewhere in the US today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will also release PPI data, which is expected to see Core PPI rise 0.3% from -0.1%, PPI MoM is expected to be 0.2% from -0.4%. Core Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.3% this month from 0.5%. Meanwhile, unemployment claims are expected to rise to 229k from 228k.

AUDUSD D1

AUDUSD on the daily timeframe is near the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a flat channel with a narrow band spacing reflecting a sideways market with relatively low volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 below the upper band draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 68, and VB Low shows a value of 36. The difference of 32 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 52 with a flat channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 54 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 54 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

AUDUSD H4

AUDUSD on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band line. Here, the Bollinger band draws a flat channel with a slightly wider band spacing, indicating a sideways market with slightly increasing volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the price, and the middle band line draws a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 below the lower band draws a slight upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment in the longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 62, and VB Low shows a value of 32. The difference of 30 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 47 with a downward channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 48 with a downward channel crossing the TSL from the upper side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 56 with a downward channel indicating a downtrend market.

 

[radex78]

USD/CNH steady amid slowdown due to trade war

Amid the trade war with the United States, the USDCNH pair is moving steadily between the middle and lower band lines. On Friday, the USDCNH price drew a small-bodied bullish candle and short wicks on the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 7.2134, a low of 7.1948, and a close of 7.2073.

Despite experiencing an economic slowdown due to challenges such as the trade war with the United States and the debt crisis, China is still a key player in the global economy. China has been the world's second-largest economy by nominal GDP since 2010 and even surpassed the European Union economy in 2021.

The trade war with the US is an external challenge for China that affects Chinese exports to the United States. Several e-commerce giants such as Tencent, Douyin, and JD.com have been affected by President Trump's tariffs and have shifted their products to the domestic market.

China's Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping in a statement last month, described China's vast domestic market as an important buffer for exporters in the face of external shocks, while urging local authorities to coordinate efforts to stabilize exports and boost consumption.

Another challenge facing China is the debt crisis, especially at the local government level, driven by fiscal deficits and rising debt burdens. On the other hand, the potential for deflation due to industrial overcapacity is another concern.

In response to these challenges, China is trying to address economic challenges by encouraging domestic consumption, increasing innovation, and investing in infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the United States is also facing economic challenges due to the impact of the trade war and fears of a recession. Recently, Moody's downgraded the United States' credit rating from AAA to AA1 on May 17, 2025. This downgrade came after other credit rating agencies, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings, also downgraded the US. The downgrade was caused by several factors, including increasing US government debt and rising interest costs. The downgrade could have an impact on borrowing costs and investor confidence in the US economy.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies,s moved below the 50 EMA slightly down -0.2% at 100.746 from 100.905 today at the time of writing.

Today China will release economic data, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will report retail sales which are forecast to rise 6.0% from the previous 5.9%, Industrial Production is forecast to fall 5.7% from the previous 7.7%, and the Unemployment Rate is forecast to be 5.2% the same as the previous revision.

USDCNH D1

USDCNH price in the daily timeframe is now between the middle and lower band lines. Here Bollinger band draws a descending channel with wide band spacing, reflecting a more bearish market with quite high market volatility.

MA 50 is slightly above the middle band, drawing a flat channel, indicating a sideways market. MA 200 is slightly below the middle band, draws a flat channel reflecting sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 64, and VB Low shows value 32. Difference 32 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 48 with a descending channel, which means bearish weight is greater than bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 40 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 39 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

USDCNH H4

USDCNH on the H4 timeframe is near the middle band. Here, a Bollinger band squeeze appears, which reflects a steady market movement with low volatility waiting for a breakout.

MA 50 near the upper band draws a flat channel reflecting a sideways market.

MA 200 far above the upper band draws a downward channel, indicating bearish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 56, and VB Low shows a value of 31. The difference of 25 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 43 with a flat channel, meaning the bearish weight is greater than the bullish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 50 with a curved channel to the lower side, indicating a potential downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 47 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices rise as Moody's downgrades US credit rating

Gold prices surged on Tuesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with a slight shadow at the bottom of the candle. Gold prices formed a high of 3295, a low of 3204, and a close of 3289.

The increase in gold prices was triggered by several supporting factors, such as the downgrade of the US credit rating. Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1 last Friday, dampening risk sentiment and increasing demand for Gold.

Several central banks, such as the PBoC and RBA, have cut interest rates, also contributing to the value of gold, which is a safe-haven asset that does not provide a yield.

The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has implications for all financial markets. After the announcement, US government bond yields rose, especially in medium and long-term tenors. For example, the 10-year bond yield rose from around 4.1% to almost 4.5%. The increase in treasury yields also indicates that the US government must pay higher interest rates to issue new debt. On the other hand, safe-haven assets are more sought after by investors.

Moody's cited several key factors driving this decision, including: Large and increasing fiscal deficits, soaring national debt burdens, swelling interest costs on debt, and repeated failures in fiscal reforms.

The US dollar came under selling pressure amid renewed concerns about US President Donald Trump's protectionist measures and the government's runaway debt. The concerns come ahead of Trump's tax law. Analysts say the law could add between $3 trillion and $5 trillion to the debt. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.33% to 100.009 from 100.580 on Tuesday, extending earlier losses.

While there was no fresh news on US-China talks, the US is still in trade talks with other trading partners. Investors' focus is on negotiations with Japan as tensions between the two countries escalate amid US demands.

Investors will also be focusing on the UK inflation report today, which is expected to rise to 3.3% from a previously revised 2.6%. Higher inflation could support gold as a safe-haven asset that has proven to be more resilient to inflation.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price is now near the middle band line on the daily timeframe. Bollinger bands draw a flat channel with slightly wider bands reflecting a range market with moderate volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band draws an upward channel reflecting bullish sentiment. MA 200 far below the lower band draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment on a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 76, and VB Low shows a value of 43. The difference of 33 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 59 with a downward channel, meaning the bullish weight is greater than the bearish, with a potential for a decline.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 50, drawing a curved channel to the upper side, crossing the TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 48 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Here Bollinger band draws an upward channel with wide band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment with high volatility.

MA 50 above the middle band draws a downward channel reflecting bearish sentiment. MA 200 slightly above MA 50 draws an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 60, and VB Low shows value 31. Difference 29 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 45 with the upward channel, meaning bearish weight is greater than bullish, with potential increase.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 65 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value of 56 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.

 

[radex78]

Why the Hong Kong Dollar Weakens Significantly Against the US Dollar

The Hong Kong dollar is experiencing a slightly different condition than other currencies. While the US dollar is weakening against other major currencies, the Hong Kong dollar is weakening against the US dollar. This can be seen from the USDHKD price chart, which has drawn consecutive bullish candlesticks since May 3. Yesterday, the Hong Kong dollar price reached a high of 7.83102, which is the highest value throughout 2025.

Meanwhile, the US dollar we are witnessing more weakening against other currencies throughout 2025 during President Trump's administration. This can be seen from the value of the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies that tend to move below the EMA 20 throughout 2025. The DXY is now down 0.4% at 99.600 at the time of writing, although it tried to cross the EMA 20 up at 101.977, but the DXY failed to maintain its increase.

The Hong Kong dollar had indeed strengthened against the US dollar and hit its lowest point at 7.4820 on May 2, marking a turning point in the market trend reversal. The weakening US dollar caused concerns by the Hong Kong authorities, which then prompted the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) to intervene in the market by buying US dollars to maintain the stability of its currency benchmark system. This step was the first intervention since 2020.

A New York-based HKMA official confirmed that the authority had bought about 7.8 billion US dollars in early May. In contrast, in 2022 and 2023, the HKMA sold US dollars more often to keep the exchange rate from going beyond the lower end of the trading range.

The HKMA's currency intervention is a form of vigilance amid increasing global market pressures. The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to a tight range of 7.75 and 7.85 against the US currency. The pegging to the USD began in 1972. The HKD has been tied to the US dollar, and the HKMA plays a role in keeping it stable. They make rules to maintain their value and stop inflation.

Hong Kong is a major financial center, which makes the HKD even more important. People use it for trading, investing, and promoting between countries. Its steady value makes it a favorite for businesses and investors everywhere.

The HKD is issued by the government and three banks: HSBC, Bank of China, and Standard Chartered. The HKMA acts as a central bank during this process.

Today, concerning the US dollar, some news that attracts traders' attention is US Unemployment Claims and PMI data that provide subtle clues to the current US economy.

USDHKD D1

Hong Kong Dollar in the daily timeframe is on a sharp uptrend, price is near the upper band. Here Bollinger band draws an uptrend channel with upper and lower bands moving away from each other, reflecting bullish sentiment with very high market volatility.

MA 50 is below the middle band drawing an uptrend channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 above MA 50 draws a flat channel, indicating sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 82, and VB Low shows value 18. The difference of 64 reflects the volatility value in the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 50 with an uptrend channel, meaning price is on the neutral path with bullish potential.

RSI Price Line shows value 84 with an uptrend channel crossing TSL and MBL from the bottom, indicating the uptrend market is in an overbought level.

Trade Signal Line shows value 82 with an uptrend channel crossing MBL from the bottom, indicating an uptrend market.

USDHKD H4

The Hong Kong dollar in the H4 timeframe is now between the middle and upper band lines. Here Bollinger band draws an upward channel with upper and lower band spacing tending to be stable, reflecting bullish sentiment with stable volatility.

MA 50 is below the lower band drawing an upward channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 is far below MA 50, drawing a flat indication of sideways market in a longer period.

VB High TDI indicator shows a value of 78, and VB Low shows a value of 65. The difference of 13 reflects the volatility value in the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows a value of 71 with a flat channel, meaning bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 65 with a flat channel, indicating a sideways market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 69 with a flat channel indicating a sideways market.

 

[radex78]

Gold prices rise on US debt concerns, Bitcoin falls at the same time

Gold prices on Friday recorded an impressive increase after a sharp decline in mid-May. The increase in gold prices was driven by various factors, including increasing investor concerns about the sustainability of US debt after Moody's downgraded the US credit rating due to the failure of the Trump administration to fix fiscal problems. The rating agency announced that the US credit rating was downgraded to 'AA1' from 'AAA'. Gold prices on Friday rose, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle that engulfed the previous candle. The price formed a high of 3365 low of 3287, and closed at 3357.

In contrast to the movement of Bitcoin prices. This crypto asset moved down from its previous high after the price reached $111k; the price of Bitcoin is now around the $107k level. Although the price fell yesterday, in the long term, the Bitcoin trend still has the potential to be bullish. This is read from the 200 MA line, which draws an ascending channel far below the current price.

Another factor that drives gold is geopolitical risk. The lack of progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and growing fears of a deepening conflict in the Middle East amid reports of Israel escalating attacks on Gaza and planning attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran have allowed the precious metal to benefit from risk aversion.

The US trade war with partner countries is also in the investor's attention. Trump warned of a 50% tariff on EU imports, escalating the trade war and boosting demand for safe havens. Trump said that discussions with the EU were "no progress" while threatening to impose 50% tariffs on EU imports on June 1. Meanwhile, the latest development from the Trump administration was the passage of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' by the US House of Representatives, which would add almost $4 trillion to the US debt limit.

This week, investors will focus on several economic agendas. The US will feature data on Durable Goods Orders for April on Tuesday. Next, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its May policy meeting on Wednesday. And on Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish data on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

On the other hand, the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, is still under pressure. The DXY is now at 99.047, down from a high of 99.940. DXY is in a downtrend below EMA 20.

Today, US and UK bank holidays may affect trading volumes in the spot forex market. UK banks will be closed in observance of the Spring Bank Holiday. US banks will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.

XAUUSD D1

The gold price on the daily timeframe is between the upper and middle band lines. Here Bollinger band draws a flat channel with wide band spacing, reflecting flat sentiment with high market volatility.

MA 50 near the lower band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 far below the lower band draws a rising channel, indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period. MA 50 and MA 200 moving away from each other reflect strong bullish sentiment.

VB High TDI indicator shows value 73, and VB Low shows value 44. Difference 29 reflects the volatility value on the daily timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 59 with rising channel transition, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows value 57 with rising channel crossing TSL from the lower side, indicating an uptrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows value 53 with a rising channel indicating an uptrend market.

XAUUSD H4

The gold price on the H4 timeframe is near the upper band line. Here Bollinger band draws an upward channel with narrowing band spacing, reflecting bullish sentiment with decreasing market volatility.

MA 50 is near the lower band, drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment. MA 200 is slightly above MA 50, drawing an upward channel indicating bullish sentiment in a longer period. There is a death cross signal on the H4 timeframe.

VB High TDI indicator shows the value of 72, and VB Low shows a value of 44. Difference 28 reflects the volatility value on the H4 timeframe.

Market Base Line shows value 58 with the upward channel, which means bullish weight is greater than bearish.

RSI Price Line shows a value of 65 with a curved channel to the lower side, indicating a downtrend market.

Trade Signal Line shows a value of 64 with an upward channel indicating an uptrend market.