Absolutely. I hear ya! The tombstone epitaph engravement, NO?
The unsure teacher's sage and very qualified advice: "tells us more what it won't do than what it will do.. "
However I have located a few clues to help. One is that there are keys to each wave which the wave itself generates. The other is an observation that with the 5 wave / 3 wave structure comes an odd compensity to break into "TWO"s. When you stand back and observe the waves you don't see the 5 & 3 right off. Obviously you will locate them because that is what you are looking for. But if you just casually observe you will see a much simpler pattern - Everything is broken down into DOUBLE MOVES.
That combined with a concept which I began using about six years ago which was to take everything and convert it to fibonacci basis. Even timeframes and in fact it was especially the timeframes which began to reveal these keys.
The market is nothing more than a collection of ticks and nothing - I mean absolutely nothing - more. When we decide to package it up into containers we apply an artificial segmentation which the market knows and cares nothing about. It is utterly arbitrary to the market mechanics of ebb and flow.
Then we take an indicator which derives its function from the closing value (or other feature) of this artificial creation. Now we have an artificial translation of an artificial object and have doubly removed ourselves from the true fibonacci based essence of the market as it flows.
When we further develop our "system" by adding related effects of other additional indicators which are also removed we of course have compounded the distance from the market's truth.
And to make us feel as though we are controlling the results we "choose" a favorite timeframe where we will PLOP down our 'system' over and over again. And as if that isn't the most blindfolded of stances we expect this to yield 'consistent' results having never simply observed that if the market loves anything it is infinite variety within infinite structure.
The structure is PHI but the power of phi runs the universe so good luck with the simplistic indicator and timeframe models as you come up against this beautiful living entity.
This is a part of what is wrong with Technical Analysis today.
But one thing especially has emerged from this and that is the utilization of the EW key combined with fibonacci timeframe analysis. This has produced two outstanding tools, one for location of the correct time to use the other.
The locating technique cranks the engine by employing that basic double move concept. This is where each move of a market which may be considered at some degree of scale as being a completed move will have at least broken in the middle somewhere with a correction at a smaller degree.
That tool will then say OK its time to start taking readings with the trend strength and signal point tool which has never missed.
Try this out. Take these moving averages and put them on your chart as the following settings and observe:
74 SMA
148 SMA
194 SMA
314 EMA
425 Smoothed
425 SMA
Roll around in different timeframes. You will see uncanny interactions at main pivots. My system of super trade retracement entries does not use this interaction at marking reversal points but it shows how alive your analysis can become.
I won't tell where these numbers come from and it is only a small part of the complete spectrum of power that awaits you when you place your analysis in the waves.
Just some food for thought.
