XtreamForex | Daily Technical Analysis

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EUR/JPY Bulls Target 157.70 Key Resistance Despite Soft Japan Wages and Lackluster German Inflation

During today’s European session, the EUR/JPY pair is showing a bullish trend, targeting the key resistance level of 157.70. This upward movement is significant as it challenges a long-standing falling resistance line. Interestingly, this bullish drive is happening despite weak economic indicators from both Japan and Germany.

The Euro’s strength in the face of lackluster German inflation data and sluggish Treasury bond yields is noteworthy. Despite the expected inflation figures closely matching the forecasts, with a YoY rate of 6.5% for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and 6.2% for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the EUR/JPY pair continues to rise. This suggests a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the European Central Bank (ECB).

However, the driving force behind the pair’s ascent could be linked to the evolving monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), supported by recent wage statistics from Tokyo. While Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings for June exceeded expectations, real wages continued to decline for the 15th consecutive month, dropping by 1.6% YoY. This decline aligns with the dovish stance surrounding the BoJ.

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Asian Shares Fall on Bank Concerns and Chinese Economic Worries

Asian markets experienced declines on Wednesday due to concerns about the U.S. banking system’s performance, which triggered a slide on Wall Street. Simultaneously, worries about Chinese economic growth added to the downward trend in the region’s stock markets.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.2% to 32,323.31 during morning trading, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained almost unchanged, inching up by less than 0.1% to 7,316.60. South Korea’s Kospi, however, recorded a nearly 1.0% increase to reach 2,598.96. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined by 0.4% to 19,105.19, and the Shanghai Composite also fell by 0.4% to 3,247.64.

Clifford Bennett, the chief economist at ACY Securities, highlighted concerns over China’s export data, which experienced the sharpest decline in three years. He emphasized that this decline reflects not only China’s situation but also the global economy’s challenges.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% to 4,499.38, marking the fifth loss in the last six days, following strong performance in the initial seven months of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell by 0.4% to 35,314.49, recovering slightly from an earlier loss of 465 points. The Nasdaq composite witnessed an 0.8% decrease to 13,884.32.

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GBP/USD on Edge Before US Inflation Data and UK-China Sanctions
GBP/USD remains cautious around 1.2715-20 ahead of Thursday’s London session, as investors tread carefully before the release of US inflation figures for July. Additionally, the Pound faces resistance due to reports of the UK considering restrictions on British investment in Chinese tech firms. Meanwhile, concerns about a potential British recession and looming higher interest rates in London are also testing the Cable pair’s stability.

A recent report by the Financial Times (FT) suggests that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is contemplating measures to limit outbound investment in the Chinese tech sector, including areas like artificial intelligence, chips, and quantum computing. This news gains traction as Sunak seeks support within the political sphere following disappointing by-election results.

Furthermore, the UK’s prominent think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), projects that British economic output won’t recover to pre-pandemic levels until Q3 2024. The NIESR also suggests a 60% chance of the government facing a recession, while anticipating that UK inflation will remain above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target for the next four years. This could drive the Bank of England towards more hawkish actions to defend the British Pound.

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EUR/USD Holds Firm above 1.0980, Markets Cautious Ahead of US PPI Data

During the early European session on Friday, the EUR/USD pair maintains its position above the 1.0980 level. Following a retreat from its weekly high of 1.1065 following US inflation data, the major pair has remained in positive territory for a third consecutive day. However, market participants are treading cautiously, opting to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) release later in the American session.

In its monthly Economic Bulletin issued on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) underscored that inflation in the Eurozone is still projected to remain elevated for an extended period, while the prospects for economic growth and inflation continue to be uncertain. According to a Reuters poll, economists do not anticipate reaching the target inflation rate of 2.0% until at least 2025. Moreover, over 90% of surveyed economists expect no rate cuts before the second quarter of 2024.

Shifting focus to the US Dollar, recent data indicated that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2% year-on-year (YoY) from 3% in June. Although slightly below the market consensus of 3.3%, this increase in inflation influenced the Euro’s performance. Furthermore, the Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, declined from 4.8% to 4.7%. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims surpassed expectations, rising to 248,000 compared to the expected 230,000. As a result, the US Dollar reversed its trajectory, exerting downward pressure on the Euro on Thursday.

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SD/JPY remains below 145.00 as BoJ provides limitless fixed-rate JGBs
The USD/JPY pair is currently trading below the significant level of 145.00, retreating from its year-to-date high during the Asian trading session. At present, the major pair hovers around 144.90, experiencing a marginal decline of 0.05% throughout the day.

On Friday, an important development came from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which revealed a substantial increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. In July, the PPI rose by 0.8%, surpassing June’s 0.1% and exceeding market expectations of 0.7%. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index for July dipped slightly from 71.6 to 71.2, surpassing the anticipated figure of 71. Moreover, the UoM’s 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for August declined to 2.9% compared to the previous estimate of 3.0%. This data resulted in a mild increase in buying activity for the USD/JPY pair, driven by heightened expectations of a potential 25 basis points tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) by the end of the year. Such expectations could strengthen the US Dollar, providing support for the USD/JPY pair.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made a notable move by offering limitless Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) with residual maturities of 5 to 10 years at a fixed rate. This announcement came during the early Asian session on Monday, causing the USD/JPY pair to briefly touch an intraday low near 144.65. Consequently, the pair recorded its first loss in six consecutive days after hitting a fresh yearly high earlier in the same day.

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China’s Surprise Rate Cut Sparks Drop in Key Bond Yield and Yuan

The recent surprise rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has sent shockwaves through the Chinese market. The aim was to stimulate economic growth, but it has led to unintended consequences. The benchmark government bond yield has plummeted to a three-year low, and the yuan has weakened. This decline in bond yields and the currency indicates growing concerns about Chinese assets and the urgent need for further stimulus measures to revive growth.

The PBOC’s decision to lower one-year loan rates by 15 basis points to 2.5% caught many off guard. This announcement came just moments before the release of disappointing economic data, including weaker-than-expected retail sales and fixed-asset investment figures. These factors have exacerbated market sentiment and emphasized the necessity for additional fiscal and monetary measures to support the economy.

Experts suggest that the impact of the rate cut on growth hinges on whether the positive effects of lower rates outweigh the challenges posed by wider rate spreads between China and the US. To regain market confidence, Beijing must demonstrate a commitment to increased spending and further monetary easing, such as reducing banks’ required reserve ratio.

The yield on China’s 10-year bonds has dropped five basis points to 2.57%, reaching levels not seen since the height of the pandemic in April 2020. Concurrently, the yuan has weakened both onshore and offshore, hitting its lowest level since November. The continuous decline in Chinese stocks adds to the overall negative sentiment.

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After UK CPI data release, GBP/JPY surged past 185.00
After the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the GBP/JPY currency pair experienced a surge, surpassing the 185.00 mark. This positive momentum in the cross is due to the encouraging inflation figures from the UK. However, market participants are also closely monitoring the possibility of foreign exchange (FX) intervention by the Bank of Japan.

According to the latest data from the UK’s National Statistics, the CPI for June showed a month-on-month decrease of -0.4%, slightly better than the market consensus of -0.5%. On a yearly basis, British CPI inflation rose to 6.8% in June, in line with expectations. The core CPI, which excludes volatile oil and food prices, increased by 6.9% in July, surpassing the estimated 6.8%. Additionally, the UK Retail Price Index (RPI) for July reported a month-on-month decline of -0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0%.

Meanwhile, Japan’s economic growth data for the second quarter revealed a QoQ increase of 1.5%, higher than the expected 0.8% and the previous 0.7%. On an annual basis, Japan’s GDP rose to 6.0%, exceeding the estimated 3.1% and the previous 2.7%. The Yen’s weakness can be attributed to the monetary policy differential between the US and Japan, with the potential for additional rate hikes by the Bank of England acting as a boost for the Pound Sterling and potentially benefiting the GBP/JPY cross.

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Stocks Dip on Fed Minutes Hinting at Potential Rate Hikes

On Wednesday, the stock market witnessed a noticeable decline in response to the Federal Reserve’s indication of potential rate hikes, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies among traders and investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) recorded a decrease of approximately 0.5%, equivalent to a drop of around 180 points. Similarly, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) experienced a decline of nearly 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), dominated by technology-focused companies, suffered its second consecutive day of losses with a drop exceeding 1%.

Amidst this market activity, a prominent occurrence in the retail sector was the stark projection provided by Target (TGT), which adjusted its full-year profit forecast downward. The rationale behind this adjustment was attributed to the combination of escalating interest rates and the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the resumption of student loan repayments. Despite this unfavorable news, Target’s stock exhibited a surprising increase of over 3%, a surge attributed to the company’s robust quarterly profit performance that overshadowed the downward outlook.

The spotlight then turned to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting. The minutes divulged that a majority of officials maintained their stance that inflation presented a potential risk, while a select few expressed hesitance toward further rate increases in the month of July. Notably, the central bank had already executed an interest rate hike, elevating rates to their highest point since 2001 during that specific meeting. Investors eagerly sifted through the minutes in search of clues regarding the Fed’s forthcoming strategies. Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool demonstrated that almost 90% of traders were anticipating a status quo in terms of rates, a figure that saw a marginal decrease from before the minutes were released.

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USD/CHF Struggles Below 0.8800 Amid Slow Markets
The USD/CHF pair is currently encountering challenges as it strives to surpass the 0.8800 level, a scenario highlighted by the most recent news and market analysis. The lack of dynamic movement in this pairing can be attributed to a confluence of factors that are significantly influencing the overall sentiment within the market.

One of the pivotal factors contributing to traders’ apprehension is the impending release of mid-tier Swiss data. This impending data release has introduced an element of uncertainty into the market, prompting caution among traders. Adding to this air of uncertainty is the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, a high-profile event where influential central bankers are slated to deliver speeches in the upcoming week. This event is further deepening the sense of vigilance among traders, as they closely monitor these key figures’ insights.

The broader risk appetite prevailing in the market is also contributing to the prevailing hesitancy among momentum traders. A juxtaposition is seen in the US 10-year Treasury bond yields, which initially experienced a drop but subsequently exhibited a rebound and found stability. Correspondingly, the S&P 500 Futures have showcased a resurgence and stabilization. Furthermore, a corrective bounce has been evident in the MSCI’s Index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan.

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EUR/USD Bullish Above 1.0900 Amid Slight USD Weakness

The EUR/USD pair continues to gain strength, surpassing the 1.0900 mark in the Asian session for the second consecutive day. This upward momentum comes after the pair rebounded from its recent low of 1.0845, indicating a positive trend.

One of the factors supporting this optimistic outlook is the statement from Philip Lane, the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB). Lane predicts steady growth for the Euro Zone economy without a severe recession. This, coupled with the narrowing of the German yield curve, suggests that the ECB may consider tightening its policies, which in turn bolsters the Euro. Furthermore, the modest weakness of the US Dollar adds further support to the EUR/USD pair.

Traders are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s actions, anticipating that they will halt their rate-hiking cycle in September, leading to a decline in the USD Index. However, the US economy has shown resilience, leaving room for a potential rate hike later in the year.

The expectation of higher interest rates is keeping US Treasury bond yields relatively high. Additionally, investors are exercising caution in light of key speeches by the Federal Reserve Chair and the ECB President at the Jackson Hole Symposium. This caution may limit aggressive bets on the EUR/USD pair.

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