Fundamental from Felix
Hi there
I hope you are ready for the first day of February tomorrow
It's been a relatively tough, but still profitable month in trading the news...we had a lot of no trade scenarios. The UK interest rate hike definitely saved the month... Let's hope for a better month in February.
If it's your first time receiving my signals, or if you still didn't watch the tutorial video, please go to this link:
http://www.secretforexsociety.com/videos/FreeSignalsTutorial.html
Let's first review what happened earlier today. We had the Swiss Leading Indicator coming out, we had the ADP Employment coming out, we had the U.S. GDP coming out, we had the Chicago PMI coming out, and then we had the U.S. interest rate statement coming out. Swiss leading indicator and ADP employment came out too close to expectations, and didn't hit my triggers, so that was a no trade. U.S. GDP came out way better than expect and hit my short trigger on the GBP/USD pair. We did see the pair move by about 50 pips in the first 20 minutes, but unfortunately I exited way too early and only caught part of that move. The initial price movement was just too small. We only see an initial move by only 15 pips or so in the first few minutes, which is absolutely abnormal for this report. I decided not to risk it, just took a small profit, and exited. Then we had Chicago PMI come out. I completely forgot that they changed the time for this report from 10:00 am to 9:45 am New York Time, and that special subscribers list gets this report 3 minutes early. So it came out at 9:42 am. Because of these scheduling problems, I missed this move, though it did hit my trigger and moved quite a bit. Then interest rate statement came out as expected, and there were no earth shattering comments out of the Fed, so the interest statement was a no trade also. To learn a lot about all of these reports yesterday, please watch my live trading videos by going to this link:
http://forexdiamonds.com/performance.htm
Rob Grespi from kingforexsignals.com did great today. He took 6 trades, 5 of them were winners, so overall he made +72 pips today total, which concluded his performance for the month of January at +982 pips. To watch Rob's live trading videos, please go to this link:
http://www.kingforexsignals.com/robtrades0107.htm
Let's talk about what's going on tomorrow. Another big day is coming up.
1. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We first have UK manufacturing PMI coming out. This report measures manufacturing activity in the UK, and is considered important. This indicator has been on steady decline since September of 2006, and is expected to come out slightly lower this month than it was last month. Last month this indicator read 51.9, and this month it's expected to come out at 51.7. If this report comes out at 53 or higher, it would be a very nice rebound, and would break the declining streak, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. Plus considering the strength of the pound in the last couple of months, such high reading of 53 or higher, would be extremely promising, because usually when the currency is strong, manufacturing activity within the country suffers massively. If the reading is at 50.0 or lower, that would be bad for the pound short term, and I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If my trigger is hit, we might see a move in the GBP/USD pair by as much as 50 pips, but the move may take 20 to 30 minutes to fully unfold. If you don't have the capability of getting before the spike starts happening, then you can try to get in on 2nd wave, per my video tutorial in the beginning of this email.
2. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have Core PCE coming out of the US, which is an inflationary indicator that sometimes the government trusts even more than CPI. It's expected that PCE will come out at 0.2% month over month. If the reading reads 0.0% or negative, it would be bad for the dollar short term, and I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the reading reads 0.4% or higher, it would mean inflation is getting out of control, and the Fed may do another rate hike eventually, so it would be good for the dollar, and I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. This report rarely give a trade signal, so I am uncertain on how exactly the price action will react if my triggers are hit, but I would expect a move of at least 30 pips on GBP/USD, and perhaps even 50 pips or more.
3. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
Then we have US ISM Manufacturing coming out. This is a big boy. After Chicago PMI coming out at 48.8 earlier today, I am sure there are expectations that ISM manufacturing would be more likely to give a downside surprise, so an upside surprise would be a bigger surprise. It's expected that ISM Manufacturing will come out somewhere between 51.5 to 52.0. If the ISM manufacturing reads 50 or below, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it reads 53 or above, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If my triggers are hit, I would expect a move of around 50 pips or more. It may take about 5 to 10 minutes for the move to fully develop, so you can look for second wave trades per my tutorial video.
4. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (7:30 pm New York Time) Australia
Then we have Australian trade balance coming out. It's expected that the trade balance will read slightly more negative than last month. It's expected that trade balance will come out at -1,000 million (-1 billion). If the trade balance reads at -1,500 or more negative, it would almost be the most negative reading in the last 6 months (October of 2006 we had a reading of -1508). So if it reads -1500 or more negative, I may possibly go short on AUD/USD, since it would be bad for the Australian dollar. If the reading reads at -500 million or less negative, it would be a relatively low trade deficit for Australia, so it would be good for the Australian dollar, so I may possibly go long AUD/USD. If my trigger is hit, we may see a move in the Australian dollar by about 35 to 40 pips. Unfortunately, unless you catch the spike on this report, I doubt that you can make much outside of it. You can try to look for 2nd waves, but generally speaking, 80% of the move happens in the first 15 to 20 seconds, and then there is consolidation with just slight price appreciation or depreciation.
That's all for tomorrow
If you wanted to get into my live trading room, tomorrow I will take a few people at discounted scholarhip special. The email will go out at 11:00 pm New York Time, tomorrow Thursday. If you are interested, make sure you are on the waiting list, which you can join here:
http://forexdiamonds.com/join.htm
To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus
1617 Broadway St., Suite 1001 New York, NY 10002 USA
