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SebsCubs

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How to trade on June 23?


23.06.2020
Fundamental factors

Trump’s adviser Peter Navarro roiled the market. He said that the US-China trade deal is over during the interview by Fox News. Stock dropped



Later, the US president calmed the market’s participants down. The phase one agreement of the trade deal is enforceable. Both sides officially claimed that they intend to stick to the deal.
That situation has proven that the US-China relationship is still one of the key drivers of the market.
The Australian Manufacturing PMI tuned out 49.8, it was better than analysts expected. That data encouraged investors as above 50.0 indicates industry expansion. AUD jumped.
The Japanese Manufacturing PMI came worse than forecasts. JPY loosened.

Technical tips
S&P 500

Most analysts don’t expect another pullback this week. S&P 500 is headed towards new highs. It has just passed 3110. If bulls are as strong as most anticipate, the stock index will surge to 3225. Support levels are 3020 and 3000.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD rose on the positive industry data. If it crosses the resistance at 0.6950, it will open doors toward the June high at 0.7020. Nevertheless, if risk-averse returns, the pair will slump to 0.6800.

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar on the poor PMI data. The 50-day moving average at 107.40 is a key resistance that the pair struggles to break. If it crosses it, it will soar to 38.2 % Fibonacci level at 107.85. Support levels are 106.80 and 106.00.

WTI oil

The WTI oil price has reached the three-months high. It has crossed $40.5 a barrel. Now it’s moving up towards the early March highest point at $47.5. Support levels are $36 and $32.


To trade WTI with FBS you need to choose WTI-20N.
Upcoming news today:

The French, German and EU PMI will be released at 10:15, 10:30 and 11:00 MT time, respectively.
The UK PMI will be reported at 11:30 MT time.
The US PMI will be published at 16:45 MT time.

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SebsCubs

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Risk-off is back. All eyes on the US data.


25.06.2020

The market sentiment deteriorated as the USA and some other countries are suffering from the new virus resurgence. Investors worry that the economic reopening may be delayed.
Fundamental factors

Australia has recorded its largest peak in COVID-19 cases since April. The US states such as Florida and California exceeded daily highs.
Investors are concerned that governments may impose strict restrictions and lockdowns again. That may lead to devastating results for most businesses. Stocks dropped on that worries.
Margie Patel, portfolio manager at Wells Fargo Asset Management, said that stocks just need to take a breath and then they may continue rallying.
The USA revealed new tariffs on export goods from the Eurozone. The EU considers to ban the entry for Americans. The US-EU tensions began to heat up.
The IMF lowered its guidelines for the global economic recovery and predict deeper downturn and slower rebound.


Technical tips
S&P 500

S&P 500 dropped dramatically, but the 200-day moving average stopped it at the 3,020 level. If it manages to cross this line, it will open doors towards the key psychological mark at 3,000. Follow the release of the US GDP and unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time. It will be the strong catalyst for the further falling, if the data comes worse than expected. Otherwise, if the market catches the risk-on stimulus after the report, stocks may soar. In this case, look for resistance levels at 3,110 and 3,225.

XAU/USD

Gold is headed to new highs. Market participants found it the most attractive safe-haven asset amid the current uncertainty. The US dollar gains too, but gold still prevails. If it crosses the resistance at 1,775, it will surge to 1,800. Support levels are 1,717 and 1,700. Again, the US data will have a huge impact on gold. Don’t miss out.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has tumbled significantly as Australia suffers from the largest high in coronavirus cases. Look for the break below the 0.6830 level, as the pair may fall even deeper to the next support at 0.6800. Resistance lines are the 50-day moving average at 0.6890 and the high of June 23 at 0.6920.

Upcoming event:

The US GDP and unemployment claims at 15:30 MT time will make the market really volatile. Follow the report!

Check the economic calendar

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SebsCubs

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Facebook crashed


29.06.2020

Zuckerberg has lost 7 billion dollars as companies pull adds from Facebook. Catch the moment!

What happened?

The social media giant is facing the advertising boycott. Corporations such as Unilever, Coca-Cola and Starbucks cancelled their ad contracts with Facebook. They organized the #StopHateForProfit campaign to protest against the Facebook’s failure to stop the spread of hate. The Facebook’s co-founder Mark Zuckerberg announced on Friday that they expanded their policy to prevent any hate and violence on the platform. However, people don’t believe that Facebook is effectively managing hate speech and disinformation. Do you remember that Twitter banned posts by President Donald Trump for its violence? Facebook hasn’t done anything with similar posts. People criticized the company for its inaction.
What does it mean for a trader?

It’s a great opportunity to make profit! The Facebook stock price will fall, while companies continue boycotting. It may meet the support at $210. If it breaks It down, it can plummet deeper to $204 and then to the 200-day moving average at $198. Follow news further!

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Will the NFP push the USD again?


30.06.2020

Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

The last release of the NFP was far greater than what one could have thought. 2.5mln jobs were created against a loss of 8mln expected by the market. Fundamentally, it is hilarious. For a trader, though, it is a conundrum. As the last release was unexpectedly high, the question is: will the American labor market be able to hold on to this tremendous resilience in the coming release? Because if it doesn’t, we are in for another blow to the USD. The preliminary data shows, though, that the workforce is being added into the market, so there is a high probability that the NFP will bring positive figures beating the expectations.

If the data is better-than-thought, the USD will rise.
Otherwise, it will fall.

Check the economic calendar

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SebsCubs

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What drives the market on July 1?


01.07.2020

The market sentiment is mixed. Let’s look at most interesting movements on the market today.
Fundamental factors

The Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell claimed yesterday that the US economy entered the new phase of economic recovery sooner than expected. Encouraging US data proved that the USA is moving forward to the V-shaped recovery. US consumer confidence showed yesterday the largest increase since late 2011. However, there are still challenges ahead as the labor market is still well-below pre-crisis levels. More than 20 million Americans remain unemployed. "All levels of government" should impose stimulus measures "for as long as needed" to support the economy rebound, Powell claimed. Stocks gained.

The Canadian GDP came better than the forecast. The indicator shrank by 11.6%, while analysts anticipated the 12.5% contraction. CAD rose.

Virus infection are still rising in some US states. Alarming data indicated that coronavirus cases in 14 states in the USA more than doubled in June.

Investors worry about a new national security law for Hong Kong. China imposed strict punishment measures up to life in prison for the sedition and collusion with foreign forces. Sino-American tensions escalated. Gold climbed up.

Technical tips

Gold

XAU/USD is heading towards the key psychological mark at $1,800. Just few inches left. Support levels are at $1,760 and $1,720.


S&P 500

The stock index rose on the optimistic speech of Jerome Powell. The price crossed the resistance at 3,075 and took a breath after that. Most analysts anticipate that the stock rally will continue further. Anyway, if risk-off factors outweigh, look for support levels at the 200-day moving average at 3,025 and then at 3,000.


USD/CAD

The encouraging Canadian GDP pushed USD/CAD down. The pair met the support at the 100-day moving average at 1.3565. The risk-on market sentiment may push it even lower. If it breaks it down, it will clear the way towards the next support at 1.3495. Resistant levels are at 1.3605 and 1.3685.

Upcoming events:

ADP non-farm payrolls will be released at 15:15 MT time. If the data turns out better than expected, the market sentiment will improve. Follow the report!

Check the economic calendar

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How to trade on July 2?


02.07.2020

Fundamental factors

The market sentiment improved after Pfizer and BioNtech released positive results of the vaccine experiment. Tests proved that the vaccine is safe, and patients produce antibodies.
The ADP report came worse than analysts expected yesterday. The report revealed that US firms added 2.37 million jobs, while the forecast was 2.85. The US government poured a lot of stimulus measures to support the economy, but the fresh coronavirus outbreak in the USA has slowed down the recovery.
Crude oil inventories bet all estimates yesterday evening. The oil supply contracted by 7.2 million barrels. The forecast was only the 900 000 drop.

Watch our daily forex trading plan!

Technical tips

Stocks

Nasdaq reached all-time highs at 10 300 after that encouraging news. Meanwhile, S&P 500 has risen for the fourth day. If the price crosses the resistance at 3 110, it will open doors towards the next resistance at 3 225. Support levels are at the 200-moving average at 3 025 and at the key psychological mark at 3 000.

EUR/USD

Let’s move on to EUR/USD. The pair rose significantly yesterday after the worse-than-expected ADP report. Most analysts have bullish prospects for the euro. The first reason is the weakening dollar. Its global dominance is waning. The second reason, unlike Europe, the USA is suffering from the resurgence in new infections and, therefore, has grimmer economic outlook. Reuters strategists set a target price for the EUR at 1.15 in 12 months.

EUR/USD has just crossed the strong resistance at 1.126, but stopped below the 100-period moving average and the top trendline. If it breaks it through, it will surge further to the high of June 29 at 1.129 and then to the next resistance at 1.133. Support levels are at the 1.1250 and 1.1205. The NFP report today at 15:30 MT time will add fresh volatility.

Gold

The gold price is moving down. It will meet the support level at the recent low of June 24 at $1 760.If it breaks it down, it may fall even deeper to the 50-day moving average at $1 727. It’s likely to be a short correction rather than a reverse. Gold may take a breath for a while and then surge again. Follow the NFP report. If the data comes worse than the forecast, gold can rise.

Oil

Finally, let’s talk about oil. The encouraging oil report gave stimulus for prices to increase. The WTI oil price is slightly above $40 dollars a barrel now. Analysts believe it will stay near this level for some time. Support levels are at $38 and $36.

Upcoming events:

The NFP report will be released at 15:30 MT time. Stay tuned!

Check the economic calendar

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Main market news and trade ideas on July 20


20.07.2020

The market sentiment is mixed as investors are weighing on additional government support measures amid increasing virus cases throughout the world.
Fundamental factors

The Japanese trade balance came out much worse than analysts expected. It contracted by 420 billion yens, while the forecast was for 330 billion yens. USD/JPY sharply surged after the report.

The German Producer Price Index didn’t change at all since the last month, while the forecast was for the 0.2% growth.

EU members continue negotiating to reach an agreement on a coronavirus recovery package. There are some disputes on dividing the 750-billion-euro aid package into grants and low-interest loans. The Euro gained a lot on that news.

Brexit talks have been left aside for a while as the EU summit is in the main focus of attention. The British pound is losing against the Euro.

Watch our daily forex trading plan!

Technical factors
EUR/USD

EUR/USD has reached the level unseen since January 6, 2019. It continues rising amid ongoing EU summit negotiations. It may meet the strong resistance at the key psychological mark at 1.15. If it breaks it through, it may surge to new highs. On the flip slide, if the pair falls down to the low of July 17 at 1.1428, it will open doors towards the next support at 1.1385.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY ramped up after the worse-than-expected data from Japan. Then it met the resistance at the 107.4 level, which it has touched several times already. Now it’s moving down towards the intersection of 50- and 200-period moving averages at 107.16. The move below will push the price lower to 107.05.

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP is edging up as Brexit talks remain in the shadow of EU summit negotiations. The pair has just bounced from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and jumped above the 78.6% Fibo level at 0.9125. If it crosses the resistance at 0.914, it may surge further to the high of June 29 at 0.916. Support levels are 0.9125 and 0.9084.

Gold

XAU/USD has been trading in a range between $1 815 and $1 794 for over two weeks. It has just crossed the resistance at $1 810. Now it’s moving towards the next one at $1 815. It may struggle to cross it again and fall down to support levels at$1 810 and $1 805.

Upcoming events:

The EU current account will be published at 11:00 MT time.
The Chief economist of the Bank of England will make a statement at 18:10 MT time.

Check the economic calendar

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Risk-on is back on the market


21.07.2020

How to trade on July 21?

Fundamental factors


European leaders reached a deal on the 750-billion-euros recovery fund. That joint debt will help all the EU countries to mitigate the coronavirus damage and recover faster. The euro surged after that news.

The Covid-19 vaccine, which was created by the Oxford University and AstraZeneca, showed encouraging results. Human trials turned out safe and efficient. Stocks rallied after the report.

The Swiss trade balance came out better than expected – 3.22 billion francs, while the forecast was 3.15 billion francs. The CHF gained.

The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Philip Lowe said that the Australian dollar is trading broadly in line with the fundamentals. In combination with the current risk-on sentiment those factors may push the AUD higher.

The UK public sector net borrowing beat all estimates. It was 34.8 billion pounds, while analysts expected 34.5 billion pounds. The GBP climbed up.

Watch our daily forex trading plan!


Technical tips
S&P 500

The S&P 500 has almost reached the 5-month high at 3 260. It will meet soon the resistance at the high of January 23 at 3 225. If it breaks it through, it may surge towards the all-time high at 3 390. Support levels are at the lows of July 16 and July 7 at 3 190 and 3 110, relatively.

XAU/USD

Gold has reached the all-time high at $1 820. It tends to rise along with stocks these days as investors hedge their exposure to riskier assets. As long as the stock rally continues, the gold price will rise as well.

Support levels are at the 50-day moving average at $1 807 and at the key psychological mark at $1 800.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has approached the resistance at the 200-day moving average at 1.2700. If it breaks it through, it will surge to the high of June 10 at 1.2750. Otherwise, if the market sentiment deteriorates, the British pound may fall to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2520. The move below will push the price to the 100-day moving average at 1.2415.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has reached the one-year high at 0.7040. If it rallies further, it will meet the resistance at the high of April 7, 2019 at 0.7170. Support levels are at the low of July 13 of this year at 0.6940 and at the low of June 19 at 0.6830.

Follow up:

The Canadian retail sales will be published at 15:30 MT time. Stay tuned!

Check the economic calendar

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Will the US economy help the greenback?


28.07.2020

The United States will release the advance GDP growth rate for the previous quarter on July 30, at 15:30 MT time.

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

It's not a secret that GDP represents an important indicator that demonstrates the economic activity of a country. Thus, the fall of 5% announced during the previous release indicated the weakening US economy. The reasons behind that plunge were, of course, connected with Covid-19, shutdowns, and uncertain economic outlook. Since then, the situation has got better with restoring business activity and employment. However, the outlook is still uncertain and the coronavirus cases in the US keep rising. Will we see the advance GDP growth rate for the previous quarter going down or stabilizing?

If the indicator is higher than the forecasts, the USD will rise;
If the indicator is lower than the forecasts, the USD will fall.

Check the economic calendar

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Main market movements on July 30


30.07.2020

The market sentiment switched to risk-off after the Fed’s Powell statement. The USD edged higher, while risker assets started falling after reaching quite high levels. Let’s have a closer look.

Fundamentals


The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and pointed to the most severe economic downturn “in our lifetime.” Indeed, the outlook is quite uncertain as new infections are still rising. Therefore, the recovery mostly depends on the government’s control over the virus spread. In response, he claimed that officials will take all efforts to support the economy. After the report, the USD dropped, the EUR and the GBP surged. However, now we can observe the totally opposite situation as market flows have reversed.

Democrats and Republicans will have an agreement over new stimulus package soon. Most expect that they may make a deal on Friday. The federal addition of stimulus payments to individuals by 600 dollars per week is the main sticking point.

Japanese retail sales rose twice more than forecasted. They came out 1.2%.

US pending home sales exceeded expectations by 1%. They were 16.6%.

Good news for the oil market. Crude oil inventories contracted by 10.6 million barrels during the last week, while analysts anticipated the 1-million-barrels increase. The WTI oil price changed modestly.


Technical tips
EUR/USD

The most traded pair almost reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.8200, but then reversed. Now it’s moving down towards the support at 1.1745. If the price breaks it down, it may fall even deeper to the low of July 28 at 1.1715.

Gold

XAU/USD is approaching the support level at $1 950. If gold crosses it, it may tumble to the next one at $1 930, which it has touched several times already. Otherwise, the move above the recent high at $1 970 will drive the price to the all-time high.

S&P 500

The stock index has started falling today. There is the support line ahead at 3 210. If it breaks this level down, it will open doors towards the next support at 3 190, which it has touched few times. Resistance levels are at the high of July 22 at 3 270 and at 3 325.


USD/JPY

The pair has frozen near the 105.00 level for several days. Now it’s really close to escape it. If it breaks it through, it will clear the way upwards to 105.58 and then to 106.15. Support levels are at the yesterday low at 104.89 and at the low of March 11 at 104.42.

Follow news:


The German preliminary GDP will be released at 11:00 MT time. It will have a huge impact on the euro.

The US advance GDP will be published at 15:30 MT time. Stay tuned!

Check the economic calendar

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