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Daily market analysis FBS


Nov 8, 2019
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The European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde and the euro

Mario Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank, has officially left his post on November 1. A schism among the monetary policymakers, an uneasy sentiment towards the ECB in many countries and a pre-recession-state in the Eurozone – these are some of the challenges that Mr. Draghi had to pass on to his successor. Christine Lagarde, the new ECB president, will have to steer the ECB's monetary policy through strong headwinds that are already engulfing Europe. Let us see what she will be facing and how that may affect the euro.

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AUD/JPY needs to decide

Trade ideas

SELL 73.25; TP1 72.80; TP2 72.20; SL 73.40

BUY 74.00; TP 74.45; SL 73.85

AUD/JPY has reached the support line connecting August and October lows in the 73.30 area. Now the pair will have to decide, which trend it’s going to continue: the long-term downtrend or a shorter-term uptrend. In the first case, the initial targets will lie at 72.80 and 72.15 (50% and 61.8% of the August-November advance). If the support holds and the price returns above the 50- and 100-day MAs, a break above 73.95 will allow it to rise to 74.50 (September highs).
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The outlook for the GBP

The British pound has been enjoying itself versus the other major currencies during the past weeks. The GBP welcomed the news that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has finally managed to consolidate some power in his hands. Johnson has managed to set the general election for Dec. 12 hoping to get a Parliament that would be more favorable to his Brexit deal. So far this seems to be working: Johnson's Conservative Party has a good lead in the opinion polls.
The most trusted source for public opinion is a resource called ‘YouGov’. The latest YouGov poll released on Nov. 16 shows that the Conservatives have the support of 45% of voters, while the Labour Party is supported by only 29% of the UK population. Other polls confirm the strength of the Conservatives. The most important thing is that, as time goes by, the Conservative Party gets further and further ahead of its main competitor. In addition, the Brexit party announced last week that it wouldn’t stand in 317 seats won by the Conservatives in 2017.
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USD JPY is in a correction after checking the local support level.


On the H4 chart of USDJPY, the US dollar started the day checking the support level of 108.58, which was formed yesterday. After dropping to this mark, the price bounced back up but did not reach the local resistance. The Parabolic SAR indicates that this is most probably a temporary correction within a larger trend down. Therefore, the bears may open shorts before the price aims to test again the support of 108.58. If it is broken, the next target may be located at 108.33. The bulls may place the resistance levels at 108.67, 109.00 and 109.10.
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