RETAIL SALES
9:30pm USD Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 1.0%
9:30pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 1.1%
9:30pm USD Import Price Index m/m 0.5% 0.2%
FORECAST MENUNJUKKAN PENURUNUN.. BAD FOR DOLAR..
ANALYSIS NEWS BY KATHY LIEN.
US Dollar - It has been a very exciting trading day today and for once, the news flow was not dominated by US data. Everyone in the FX market was focused on the developments across the Atlantic, which we cover in more detail in our Euro commentary. In the US, we look ahead to the retail sales report on Friday, which is probably the single most important piece of data this week. After the strong non-farm payrolls report last week, many economists have revised their retail sales forecasts upwards on the belief that a strong labor market should translate into healthy holiday spending. Given the lines that we have seen in late November, December and even January for hot items such as the new game consoles by Sony and Nintendo, we doubt that consumer spending during the holiday season could have been that weak. In addition, the stabilization in the housing market and the warm weather should also help to fuel spending. Import prices are also due for release with a projected up tick due to a rebound in oil prices. One way or the other, tomorrow’s economic releases will probably not do much to sway the Federal Reserve from their stable monetary policy. Even though Federal Reserve Presidents Bies and Geithner refrained from speaking directly about interest rates, they were both fairly optimistic about the economy. According to the Fed fund futures, the odds are next to zero for a first quarter rate cut at the moment and there is still a less than 50 percent chance of a cut in the first half of the year. The sharp drop in jobless claims below 300k confirms the health of the labor market, which is helping to boost the US dollar. All the market needs now to take us back into the summer of 2006 trading range is a strong retail sales report.
Dapat dilihat kekukuhan ekonomi US dgn Rising nya NFP,turun nya harga minyak dan data consumer credit yg meningkat serta perbelanjaan di bulan december lepas ( krismas ). Jadi kemungkinan data retail sales meningkat.
Seperti biasa straddle...buat pending atas bawah 10-15minit seblum news.. ada baiknya monitor pergerakan price dgn melakukan modify order..set TP 20-30. Kalu uncle felix menyarankan 1-5 saat sebelum news...tp aku xsepantas tuh..he..
lain2?
