Today's Market View (IB Analists)

[IFCM IB Analists]

Technical Analysis - USDJPY

by Francois Bidwai (Ichimoku Specialist)

Despite the persistence of general upward trend the daily chart indicate that the momentum begins fading. There is a risk of consolidation in the range at Y104.50/106.41.

RES 4: Y108.58 maximum of 14 February
RES 3: Y107.47 61.8% Fibonacci of 114.64
RES 2: Y107.20 2% envelope
RES 1: Y106.41 maximum of 5 June

current price: Y105.17

SUP 1: Y104.78 Tenkan line
SUP 2: Y104.50 21-day moving average and Kijun line
SUP 3: Y103.90/00 minimum of 3 June, 1% envelope
SUP 4: Y103.20 upper side of Ichimoku clouds

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Economic calendar

09-Jun-08

Time (CET) Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

Trade Terminal shows CET.

07:00 Japan Leading Indicators April -- 2 --

8:00 Germany Exports April % 0.5 -0.5 1.2

8:00 Germany Imports April % 0 0.8 -2.1

8:00 Germany Trade Balance April Bln 15.9 15.3R 17.7

10:30 Euro Zone Sentix Index June 2.9 3.5

10:30 United Kingdom PPI Core Output m/m May % 2.9 3.5

10:30 United Kingdom PPI Core Output y/y May % 0.4 1

14:15 Canada House Starts May k -- 213.9

16:00 United States Pending Home Sales change May k -- 83

16:00 United States Pending Home Sales Index May % -0.6 -1

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Asia Session Overview

During the trading session in Asia the dollar strengthened its position against other currencies because of the support in the form of "aggressive" comments of Fed Chairperson Bernanke. At a conference in Boston Fed top person noted that the risks that the economy can enter a phase of a serious recession is reduced over the past month". Furthermore Bernake expressed concern about inflation again in his speech and said that recent creeping energy price increased inflation risks and that Fed will deal with worsend long-run expectations regarding Japanese Yen. Such words of waring about inflation risks and increasing inflation expectations stimulated talks on the market about recent rate increase of Fed, and in its turn contribute dollar buyers' confidence. The quotation of EURUSD fell to the minimum at $1.5558 and since then was slightly corrected at $1.5585. USDJPY attemped to return to the maximum of the session near Y106.82 again.

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Economic Calendar

10-Jun-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

12:00 United Kingdom BoE Governor speaks

13:30 United States Trade BalanceApril Bln $ -59.9 -58.21

13:30 Canada Exports April Bln 40.06

13:30 Canada Imports April Bln 34.53

13:30 Canada Trade Balance April Bln 5.7 5.53

13:55 United States Redbook mm w/e % 1.9

13:55 United States Redbook yy w/e % 2

14:00 Canada Boc Rate June % 2.75 3

15:00 United States IBD Consumer Sentiment June 40.3

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Technical Analysis - EURUSD

Daily indicators point to growth, but lack confidence in it. Meanwhile, hour-long charts went down. Euro would unlikely go through the nearest resistance in the form of a moving average at $ 1.5585/05, upper line of channel, which include a part of $ 1.5369/89 support, the 100-day moving average, minimum of June and 1% envelope.

RES 4: $ 1.5865 2% envelope
RES 3: $ 1.5840 maximum of 9 June and the current band of Bollinger bands
RES 2: $ 1.5710 1% envelope
RES 1: $ 1.5650 maximum of opening June 10

current price: $ 1.5450

SUP 1: $ 1.5440 minimum of 10 June
SUP 2: $ 1.5389 1% envelope and support line from May 8, 100-day moving average
SUP 3: $ 1.5369 minimum of 5 June, the upper band of Bollinger bands
SUP 4: $ 1.5232 50% Fibonacci correction from ascending movement from $ 1.4444

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

Economic Calendar

12-Jun-08

Time* Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

02:30 Australia Unemployment Rate May % 4.2 4.2 4.3

02:30 Australia Employment May 13500 25400 -19700

10:00 Euro Zone Industrial Production m/m April % 0.1 -0.2

10:00 Euro Zone Industrial Production y/y April % 2.8 2

13:30 United States Export Prices May % 0.6 0.3

13:30 United States Import Prices mm May % 2.3 1.8

13:30 United States Jobless Claims w/e k 370 357

13:30 United States Retail Sales Ex Autos May % 0.7 0.5

13:30 United States Retail Sales May % 0.5 -0.2

15:00 United States Business Inventories April % 0.3 0.1

16:30 United States FED Chairman speaks

16:30 United States U.S. Fed Chairman speaks

* the time (CET) is shown right down side of the trade terminal. We recomend all traders to set alarm before the news and for risk management.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Technical Analysis - EURUSD

by Premlesh Pal Singh (Chief Analyst)

Euro/Dollar weighed down under the level of 1.5400, swallowing stops at the level of 1.5390. But the next stop-order zone at 1.5380 remained untouched. The currency pair has tested the low at 1.5386, now returned to the level of 1.5393. A clear breakedown under the stop level of 1.5380 may lead a descending movement to the previous minima level of 1.5365. Under the level there lie options at 1.5350, so in approaching to this level, orders for protecting the option level must be set by option-market traders. Daily Stochastik is coming into oversell, daily momentum shows downward movement.

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Economic Calendar

13-Jun-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

(Time is CEST = Trade Terminal Time)

00:45 New Zealand Retail Sales April % 0.6 -1.2 1

00:45 New Zealand Retail Sales year % 2.9 -1 4.1

05:23 Japan BoJ Rate Decision June % 0.5 0.5 0.5

08:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI) Final m/mMay % 0.6 -0.2 0.7

08:00 Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI) Final y/y May % 3 2.4 3.1

14:30 United States CPI Ex Food and Energy m/m May % 0.2 0.1

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m May % 0.5 0.2

14:30 United States CPI Ex Food and Energy y/y May % 2.3 2.3

14:30 United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y May % 3.9 3.9

14:30 United States Real Earnings May % -0.4 -0.5

14:30 Canada Manufacturing Production m/m April % 0.1 -1.6

15:55 United States Michigan Preliminary June 59.5 59.8

15:55 United States Michigan - Current Preliminary June 73 73.3

15:55 United States Michigan - Expectations Preliminary June 50.5 51.1

We recomend all traders to set alarm before the news for risk management.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Euro falls after Irish-vote data

by Shivam Machama (Senior Analyst)

Euro/Dollar fell to the monthly minimum in the background preliminary data on Irish vote, which shows that the Lisbon treaty will not be accepted. At the moment the session minimum is recorded at the level of 1.5310. According to traders, in the area of $ 1.5325/20 the demand from the private Swiss bank is observed, bids are located in an area of support at $ 1.5314 as well. The question, if Euro will pass through these levels, now depends not only on the outcome of the referendum in Ireland, but also from American data on inflation, which is scheduled for publication 16.30 CET.

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View

by Vincent Samuel (Technical Analyst)

In early trading session in Europe Euro unexpectedly interrupted its upward movement, which started in Asian session. The dealers report that the word ECB council member manager Lorenzo Bini Smaghi could serve as a reason that "increase of the interest rate by 25 basic points may return the inflation to 2% level”. Such comments allow the possibility that EZB may increase the rate one time and market participants did not miss the chance to sell European common currency. Especially s the cross with the yen was strongly sold, putting pressure on the another crosses with the Japanese currency. The course Euro/Yen fell to a minimum near Y167.06 after the execution of stop in breaking level at Y167.20. According to dealers, now EUR/Yen has chance to continue falling to the level of more powerful bits at Y166.60. EUR/USD tested the figure at 1.5500 on downward movement, but was supported and protected from further losses by demand in this figure. Sure breakthrough of this point, dealers say, will pave the way for the return to the minimum of the previous session around $ 1.5460. Stops exist below $ 1.5450.

Click here to the official website of IFC Markets​

Economic Calendar

17-Jun-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

Time is CET and that of the Trade Terminal

01:50 Japan Tertiary Industry April % 0.8 0.3 1.8

03:30 Australia RBA minutes June

10:30 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m May % 0.5 0.8 0.6

10:30 United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y May % 3.2 3 3.3

10:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index m/m May % 0.4 0.9 0.5

10:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index y/y May % 4.2 4.2 4.3

10:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index-core m/m May % 0.5 0.9 0.7

10:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index - core y/y May % 4.1 4 4.4

11:00 Germany ZEW current (Economic Sentiment) June 37.6 38.6

11:00 Germany ZEW Index (Economic Sentiment) June -42 -41.4

11:00 Euro Zone Trade Balance April Bln -1.4 -2.3

14:30 United States Current Account Q1 Qtr 1 Bln -173.5 -172.9

14:30 United States Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m May % 1 0.2

14:30 United States PPI Ex Food and Energy m/m May % 0.2 0.4

14:30 United States House Starts May % 8.2

14:30 United States House Starts May Mln 0.98 1.032

14:30 United States Build Permits May Mln 0.96 0.982

14:30 United States Build Permits May % 5.4

14:55 United States Redbook mm w/e % -1

14:55 United States Redbook yy w/e % 2.1

15:15 United States Capacity Utilization May % 79.7 79.7

15:15 United States Industrial Output m/m May % 0.1 -0.7

We recomend all traders to set alarm before the news for risk management.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View - EUR

by Praful Narain (Technical Analyst)

Euro/Dollar rapidly falls from maximums of the previous session. Dealers noted that strong sell of Euro in European session was provided by Asian account, whose appetite was quite high, so their Euro sell leaded to a drop to the current minimum rate at the level of $ 1.5520, and the downward pressure remains. General weakness of the Euro also is shown in other crosses, in particular, in the currency pair of Euro/Yen. The sell of Euro against the Japanese currency is so strengthened, that the European stock markets entered red zone in Thursday. A serious influence on EURUSD was made by consolidation USDCHF against a background of weakening of the Swiss currency after the SNB decision to retain the interest rate at the same level 2.75%. In this moment stops under $1.5520 is under thread and their execution stimulates new sales of highly demanded area in the region of $ 1.5460.

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Economic Calendar

19-Jun-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

Time is CET and that of the Trade Terminal

01:30 Japan Tankan Survey June -2 -2

08:15 Switzerland Trade Balance May Mln 1532.1 1873.5

08:40 Japan BoJ Governor Speaks June

09:30 Switzerland Swiss Rate Decision June % 2.75 2.75 2.75

10:30 United Kingdom PS net borrowing May Bln 9.3 8.519R 10.955

10:30 United Kingdom PSNCR May Bln 6.5 6.25R 10.987

10:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales May % -0.1 -0.3R 3.5

13:00 Canada Core CPI m/m May % 0.3 0.3

13:00 Canada Core CPI y/y May % 1.5 1.5

13:00 Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m May % 0.7 0.8

13:00 Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) y/y May % 1.9 0.8

14:30 United States Jobless Claims w/e k 375 384

14:30 Canada Wholesale Trade April % 0.6 0.6

16:00 United States Leading Indicators May % 0 0.1

16:00 United States Philadelphia Fed June -10 -15.6

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Trade Strategy

by Francois Bidwai (Ichimoku Specialist)

Euro/Dollar The currency pair traded below thin Ichimoku clouds and the middle of a wide range, formed in mid-March. Today the situation may not be fundamentally changed, but we always assume the close of short positions in this month.


Strategy To open long positions at 1.5535, to set stop below 1.5440. Short-term targets at 1.5580 and at 1.5650.

Dollar/Yen The chart is boring and disappointing. We still await the formation of peaks.

Strategy To sell the currency pair at 107.85/108.05, to set stops over 108.70. A short-term target at 107.00, the next at 106.50.

Pound/Dollar The currency pair broke through the Ichimoku clouds and is now testing a resistance, which is a trend line. Breakthrough today or on Monday may provoke "a short compression."

Strategy To open small long positions at 1.9715, to add positions to the level of 1.9650, to set stops below at 1.9550. To add long positions in the case of certain upward breakthrough to above 1.9750. Targets are 1.9800/1.9850.



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Economic Calendar

20-Jun-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

Time is CET and that of the Trade Terminal

08:00 Germany Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m May % 0.9 1.1 1

08:00 Germany PPI y/y/ May % 5.8 5.2 6

09:15 Switzerland Import Price May % 0.9 0.7

14:30 Canada Retail Sales April % 0.7 0

14:30 Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos April % 0.6 0.1

18:45 Euro Zone ECB President speaks June

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news.

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Today's Market View

by Premlesh Pal Singh (Chief Analyst)

Despite the initial weakening, during the Asian session the currency pair Dollar/Yen was strengthened under the influence of demand from Japanese importers and Asian hedge funds. Dealers said that speculators who cut down positions on Friday, is now setting new positions before the meeting, FOMC, which will take place on Wednesday. Market participants are unsure about the tone of the final statement of FOMC, dealers do not recommend to trade actively before the declaration. They also inform that at the level of Y107.50-107.60 numerous orders of Japanese exporters to sell are positioned.

Some sources have reported that FRB would leave the US interest rate without changing, but refer to climbing inflationary pressures and no expectation of interest rate rise in the statement on 25 June. US economy seems to go through subprime crisis by financial politics like interest rate cuts, but recent price rises on petroleum and weak financial markets exert bad influence on the economy.

From the view of technical analysis the daily 14-day momentum is still in the positive zone, but has lack of upward impulse. The daily stochastic is now near oversell that shows position correction before the FOMC.



Click here to the official website of IFC Markets

Economic Calendar

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

Time is CET and that of the Trade Terminal

09:30 Germany PMI - Services June 53.2 53.8

09:30 Germany PMI Manufacturing June 53.2 53.6

10:00 Germany IFO Index June 102.3 103.5

10:00 Germany IFO Current June 109 110.1

10:00 Germany IFO Expect June 96.5 97.3

10:00 Euro Zone PMI - Services June 50.5 50.6

10:00 Euro Zone PMI Manufacturing June 50.2 50.6

14:30 United States National Activity Index May -- -1.17

Click here to download Trade Termnal NetTradeX

 

[IFCM IB Analists]

Technical Analysis - EURUSD

by Praful Narain (Technical Analyst)

EURUSD had traded near 21-day moving avarage from yesterday's evening and in the narrow range between 1.5527 and 1.5500, but today on the morning the current pair climb up from the 21-day moving average line and quoted at 1.5564. In this moment EURUSD slowly moves upwards against the background of repositioning before FOMC. Daily Momentum is under 100, but seems to be recovering and to be positive. Daily stochastik returns from overbuy zone and points out downward movement.


RES4 $1.5692 2% envelope
RES3 $1.5651 maximum of 20.May
RES2 $1.5623/29 maxima of 20 and 22.June
RES1 $1.5570 23.60% Fibonacci

Current rate: 1.5564 (11:00 CET)

SUP1 $1.5534 21-day moving average
SUP2 $1.5411/13 38.20% Fibonacci, 10-day moving average and minimum of 23.May
SUP3 $1.5455 minimim of 12.May
SUP4 $1.5443 minima of 15.May and 10.Mar.



Click here to the official website of IFC Markets

24-Jun-08

Time Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual

Time is CET and that of the Trade Terminal

08:00 Germany Gfk Index July 4.6 4.7R 3.9

14:55 United States Redbook mm w/e % -0.9

14:55 United States Redbook yy w/e % 2.3

15:00 United States Case Shiller 20 mm April % -2 -2.2

15:00 United States Case Shiller 20 yy April % -15.9 -14.4

16:00 United States Consumer Confidence June 56.4 57.2

16:00 United States Richmond Fed Index June -3

16:00United States House Price q/q April -0.4

Click here to download Trade Termnal NetTradeX

During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and miximalization of losses before the news.