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The candlestick analysis of GBP/USD for 2010/07/20 2010-07-20




On a daily chart of GBP/USD, “Dark Cloud Cover” candlestick combination developed, which signaled about a decline. This candle shaped after the currency pair had not managed to breach the mark of 1.5470. It means that the bulls did not fixate here. Thereafter, the bears began to strengthen their positions.
The breakout of Fibonacci correction level of 23.6 will mean this viewpoint rightness. In this case it is expected that the currency pair can move downwards to 1.4880 area, where the major support level and Fibonacci correctional level are placed.
However, it should be emphasized that if the resistance level of 1.5470 is broken, short positions are better to close because it will cause the increase to the major resistance level of 1.5824.





Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

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Technical analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 20, 2010 2010-07-20




4-hour timeframe



Overview:
The upward movement is going on. The ‘buy’ signal with the target at 1.2975 had reached its target and the price slightly rolled back from this level, which determined a correction. The ‘buy’ signal is strong and confirmed, as the price position against Ishimoku testifies to it and Chinkou Span is placed above the price curve. Currently, the price is above the pivot level of 1.2819; therefore, the next target of the upward motion is the first resistance level of 1.3116. However, the correction is not finished yet judging by MACD and it can develop into a falling trend. Therefore, in case of MACD reversal upwards the rising motion continuation with the mentioned target is very likely. If the price fixes below Kijun-sen (1.2840), the current purchase signal will weaken and the upward trend is likely to end. Bollinger bands are converging and up-directed. That can be a signal for the increasing tendency final. MACD is lowering, showing the current downward correction.
Trading recommendations:
For the existing situation, it is recommended to bull with the target at 1.3116 after MACD up-reversal (or another signal about the uptrend refreshment). Stop loss to place below 1.2840.
Besides the technical picture, the fundamental reports and time of their release should be taken into account also.
The chart annotation:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.


Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For July; 21st/2010 2010-07-21




Here is an important intraday level area for this pair today:
Breakout Buy level : 1.2967.
Strong Resistance : 1.2959.
Original Resistance : 1.2947.
Inner Sell Area : 1.2934.
Target Inner Area : 1.2904.
Inner Buy Area : 1.2873.
Original Support : 1.2861.
Strong Support : 1.2848.
Breakout Sell level : 1.2841.






Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For July; 21st/2010 2010-07-21




Yesterday, after US Market Closed this pair already hit Resistance. 3 twice and got to our TakeProfit Level area (betwen 10 Pips to 20 Pips); here is the screenshot below:



The important level area for this pair today is:
Resistance. 3 : 87.68.
Resistance. 2 : 87.51.
Resistance. 1 : 87.34.
Support. 1 : 87.12.
Support. 2 : 86.95.
Support. 3 : 86.78.
Please, pay attention to Support. 3 and Resistance. 3 levels; usually when this pair hits these two levels, it will make this pair to bounce from 10 Pips to 20 Pips; but if after USD/JPY breaks those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3) and still goes to 50 Pips from those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3); this pair seems to continue its movement towards.
The screenshot is below:









Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Fractal analysis of the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs. Trading recommendations 2010-07-21




Dear traders,

For the EUR/JPY and the GBP/JPY pairs, key levels remained unchanged and the situation clearance is expected here. In general, as a major tendency is considered downward because there are initial conditions for that for both pairs.

In this analytical review, we will analyze the development of the structure for today for such pairs as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Having read it, you should realize more clearly possible prospects of the currencies development. In this method, for a simpler representation we use the standard notions of the technical analysis, such as support and resistance levels, though the method itself is based on the properties of the fractal function and has a deep meaning of the current and the future situation understanding. All the calculations are made from the initial conditions of the cycle development. The direction of the price movement from the current initial conditions are shown with a black arrow line. The alternative movement is shown with a red arrow line, in case of breaking through the key levels for cancellation of the uprising or downfalling cycle. As a rule, the red line also indicates the correctional movement and a short-term exit through the level. Do not use only the images; study the text in order to understand the progress of the event.

Forecast for July 21:




For EUR/JPY the significant levels are 116.39, 115.46, 115.08, 113.90, 113.49, 111.93, 111.05, 110.70, 110.04 and 108.85. Here, the key levels practically remained unchanged. The further ascendant motion is expected after the price passage of the noise range of 113.49 – 113.90, in this case the target is at 115.08, in the corridor of 115.08 – 115.46 is price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered 116.39, after reaching of which a downward rollback is awaited. For a decreasing movement, some initial conditions are observed. A correctional downward movement is possible after the hit of the level of 111.93, here the potential target is at 111.05, however, there is a possibility that the level will not be reached by the price. The price consolidation is in the range of 111.05 – 110.70, the breakout of the last reading will cause a motion to 110.04, around which consolidation is also awaited. The potential value for downward tendency is considered 108.85 for now, after a hit of which an upward pullback is expected.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 113.90 Take profit: 115.08
Buy: 115.50 Take profit: 116.39
Sell: 110.70 Take profit: 110.04
Sell: 110.00 Take profit: 108.85




For the GBP/JPY pair the important levels are: 135.71, 135.45, 134.43, 133.84, 133.42, 131.89, 131.18, 130.94, 129.80 and 129.27. Here we considered the falling structure from July 14 in H1 scale as potential initial conditions for downward cycle. The decreasing movement continuation is expected after a breach of 131.89, in this case the target is at 131.18, nearly this level the price consolidation due. The price going through of the noise diapason of 131.18 – 130.94 will lead to an impulse development, here a target is 129.80. A potential value for the low is 129.27, after the reach of which a consolidate movement in the corridor of 129.27 – 129.80 is awaited. At the present moment, there are no local initial conditions for ascendant movement. A correctional rising movement is possible to take place in the diapason of 133.42 – 133.84, the breach of the last reading will cause a deeper motion, here the target is 134.43, from this level a key downward reversal is to take place. The breakthrough of it will influence negatively on the upward tendency from July 14 extending. In whole, 135.45 is a key resistance for the upward tendency, before it we should see the formation of initial conditions for cycle development.

Trading recommendation:
Buy: 133.84 Take profit: 134.43
Buy: 134.50 Take profit: 135.45
Sell: 131.89 Take profit: 131.18
Sell: 130.92 Take profit: 129.80

Please, note that making this trading recommendations we take into account not all potential of the structure development, but only the major levels.



Performed by Aleksey Almazov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Analytical review of EUR/USD with a forecast for Wednesday July 21 2010-07-21




On Tuesday, the European currency fell from a 10-week high versus the US dollar because investors’ behavior became cautious ahead the European banks stress tests results release which is due July 23.

On early European deals on Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair hit new 2-month high of 1.3029. The euro was supported by Germany’s PPI data, which turned to be a lot better expert forecasts.

However, afternoon, the euro started falling sharply, having recorded the low of 1.2838.

The trading day closed in favor of the American dollar, which strengthened by 62 points against the euro. The trading volatility totaled to 190 points.

Fundamental review:
According to fundamental data, the German Producer Prices rose significantly in June. Following the report released on Tuesday, the German PPI increased by 0.6% in June compared to the previous month and edged up by 1.7% annually.

The expert expectations were the growth of 0.2 and 1.2% respectively.

The core PPI, which excludes energy and food prices, ticked up by 0.3% m-o-m and by 2.1% y-o-y.

In the USA new houses construction decreased to the lowest level since October 2009 in June. Sales decline is related to concessional lending programs termination.

In accordance with the US Commerce Department, new housing starts fell by 5% to 549K compared to the preceding month, while analysts were predicting a smaller decline.

Construction permits rose by 2.1%, to 586K in the prior month. Single-family homes permits, which are majority on the market, have moved down by 3.4% to 421K, having reached the lowest mark since April 2009.

Technical analysis:
Having hit a new local low during yesterday’s trading, the pair formed new short-term downward price channel from July 19. The upper limit goes through yesterday’s high. The lower limit of the channel is supported by the low of 1.2870 from July 19 and the yesterday’s low of 1.2838.

EUR/USD has also breached the 50 day exponential moving average downwards, which presently lies at 1.2909 area and hold the pair from the further growth.

To continue falling, the trading instrument is to decline below the support level of 1.2866, which will open the way to 1.2779 and then to 1.2721.

Bollinger bands reversed downwards on yesterday’s deals, however, they strongly converged to each other during today’s Asian session, indicating the low market volatility. The trading is held in the lower part of the channel and the mid band placed at 1.2889 area holds the pair from the further rise.

MACD is in the purchase area, but it is hard to speak about straight and well-defined decrease of the pair in short-term outlook.





Today’s recommendations:
Support levels: 1.2866, 1.2779, 1.2721.
Resistance levels: 1.2927, 1.3006, 1.3120.

Today it is advisable to buy the pair at 1-hour timeframe closing above the level of 1.2910 with a target - T/P 1.2963 and S/L 1.2887.
It is possible to sell at the closing of 1-hour timeframe below 1.2872 with a target – T/P 1.2803 and S/L 1.2900.


Performed by Maxim Magdalinin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For July; 22nd/2010 2010-07-22




Here is an important intraday level area for this pair today:
Resistance. 3 : 87.11.
Resistance. 2 : 86.94.
Resistance. 1 : 86.77.
Support. 1 : 86.56.
Support. 2 : 86.38.
Support. 3 : 86.21.
Please, pay attention to Support. 3 and Resistance. 3 levels; usually when this pair hits these two levels, it will make this pair to bounce from 10 Pips to 20 Pips; but if after USD/JPY breaks those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3) and still goes to 50 Pips from those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3); this pair seems to continue its movement towards.

The screenshot is below:




Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For July; 22nd/2010 2010-07-22




Yesterday, after the Asian market had opened this pair hit the "Inner Buy Level" area (Yellow Circle) and after that this pair directed upwards to the "inner area target " (Red Circle); but after that EUR/USD seemed to lose the upward momentum and went to the South. Thereafter this pair has already closed and opened below the "Breakout Sell Area" (Pinks circle). You can see the screenshot below:



The important intraday trading levels for EUR/USD today are:
Breakout Buy level : 1.2823.
Strong Resistance : 1.2815.
Original Resistance : 1.2803.
Inner Sell Area : 1.2790 .
Target Inner Area : 1.2760 .
Inner Buy Area : 1.2729.
Original Support :1.2717.
Strong Support : 1.2704.
Breakout Sell level : 1.2696 .
Here is the sceenshot below:





Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for 22/07/2010 2010-07-22​

Support levels: 1.0355, 1.0292, 1.0141
Resistance levels: 1.0586, 1.0681, 1.0858
Intraday view of USD/CAD stays neutral after the mark of 1.0455 was broken through. Recently, the trading has been extremely volatile. As it is seen on a 4-hour chart, USD/CAD movement is developing in the form of triangle. If the upper limit of this figure is breached, it will mean that consolidation of the currency pair is finished and an upward motion to 1.0858 should be expected. On the other hand, in case of a reversal, the broken out the support level of 1.0141 and the lower triangle limit will cause a decline with the target at 0.9930.
In mid-term outlook, apparently USD/CAD formed a bottom at 0.9930. Also, considering bullish divergence at daily and weekly MACD, the view of the pair remains bullish amid the reversal of downward trend from 1.3063. It is expected that USD/CAD will go up to Fibonacci correctional level of 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 on 1.1126 with the next target at Fibonacci correctional level of 61.8 on 1.1866.





Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Technical analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 22, 2010 2010-07-22​

4-hour timeframe



Overview:
The ‘buy’ signal with the target at 1.2975 had reached its target and after that it weakened and canceled. A new ‘sell’ signal with the target level of 1.2483 formed. The ‘sell’ signal is strong and confirmed, as the price position against Ishimoku (inside the cloud) testifies to it and Chinkou Span is placed below the price curve. Currently, the price is below the pivot level of 1.2819; therefore, the next target of the downward motion is the first support level of 1.2632. However, on the way of the price to this level there is an obstacle – Senkou Span B, which has not been overcome by the price. Thus, if the price fixes below Ishimoku it is recommended to bear. If recoil from the lower limit of the cloud takes place, a rising correction is possible. If the price fixates above Kijun-sen (1.2890), the current sale signal will weaken and the downward trend is likely to end. Bollinger bands are diverging and down-directed that means the decreasing movement continuation. MACD is lowering, showing the downward correction as well.
Trading recommendations:
For the existing situation, it is recommended to bear with the target at 1.2632. Enter the market with short positions after the price fixation below Ishimoku indicator. Stop loss to set above 1.2890.
Apart from the technical picture, it is important to consider the fundamental reports and time of their release as well.
The chart annotation:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.


Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010