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[BudakFx]

Technical analysis and trading recommendations of EUR/USD for July 14. 2010-07-14




4-hour timeframe



General picture:
Unexpectedly the sales signal weakened. The price fixed above Kidjun-sen, that was a signal for closing short positions. At present, we don't have a signal neither for purchase nor for selling, as Tenkan-sen and Kidjun-sen merged. That is why for choosing the trading direction it is recommended to wait for these lines divergence. The price also stopped at 1,2748, it could not exceed this level. That is why in case it does not fix above this rate the target will be the first support level at 1,2613 and 1,2506. Chinkou span is above the price chart that testifies about the upward mood. The Bollinger bands show a sideward movement - the lines are widening, however they are sideward directed that testifies about flat. MACD is rising tellinng us about the uptrend but within a sideward channel.
Trading recommendations:
In the current situation it is recommended to wait for trend direction determination. However, the price won't manage to fix above 1,2748, possibly there will be a rollback and in that case short positions can be opened with the Stop rate above 1,2748.
Apart from a technical picture the fundamental data should be also taken into account and the date of their release.
Picture explanatory notes:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen – red line
Kidjun-sen – blue line
Senkou-span A– light brown dashed line
Senkou-span B – light-purple dashed line
Chinkou span –green line
Bollinger bands indicator :
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.


Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Fractal analysis of the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs. Trading recommendations 2010-07-14




Dear traders,

As for the EUR/JPY pair, we continue to observe development of the uprising cycle from July 1. For now, we do not see any initial conditions for a decreasing tendency; therefore, we consider downward motion as a correction. As for the GBP/JPY pair, we observed the long-term ascendant structure from May 20, 2010 and the local upward cycle from July 7. There are no initial conditions for descendant tendency as well.

In my analytical review, I will analyze the development of the structure for today for such pairs as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Having read it, you should realize more clearly possible prospects of the currencies development. In my method, for a simpler representation I use the standard notions of the technical analysis, such as support and resistance levels, though the method itself is based on the properties of the fractal function and has a deep meaning of the current and the future situation understanding. All my calculations are made from the initial conditions of the cycle development. The direction of the price movement from the current initial conditions are shown with a black arrow line. The alternative movement is shown with a red arrow line, in case of breaking through the key levels for cancellation of the uprising or downfalling cycle. As a rule, the red line also indicates the correctional movement and a short-term exit through the level. Do not use only the images; study the text in order to understand the progress of the event.

Forecast for July 14:





For the EUR/JPY, the significant levels are: 116.41, 115.46, 115.08, 113.95, 113.49, 112.45, 112.08, 111.56, 110.70 and 110.24. Here, a brief ascendant motion is expected in the range of 113.95 – 113.49, the breach of the level of 113.95 will lead to an impulse, in this case the target is at 115.08, in the corridor of 115.08 – 115.46 is price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered 116.41, after reaching of which a downward rollback is awaited. A correctional downward movement is possible in the diapason of 112.45 – 112.08, the breakout of the last reading will lead to a deeper motion, here the target is 111.56, from this level we await a key reversal upwards, the breach of it will influence negatively on the rising tendency development in H1 scale. The range of 110.70 – 110.24 is a key support for the high, before it we expect the formation of the initial conditions for downward cycle extending.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 113.95 Take profit: 115.08
Buy: 115.50 Take profit: 116.41
Sell: 112.08 Take profit: 111.56





For the GBP/JPY pair the significant levels are: 138.79, 138.23, 137.11, 136.64, 135.71, 135.48, 134.06, 133.53 and 132.26. Here we are watching the long-term upward structure from May 20, 2010 and the local upward cycle from July 7. The further increasing movement is expected after the breakthrough of the level of 135.71, in this case the target is at 136.64, after reaching which a price consolidation due in the range of 136.64 – 137.11. In mid-term outlook, a potential value is 138.23, after hitting which a downward retracement and correction are expected. The diapason of 138.23 – 138.79 is noise. There are no any initial conditions for a falling motion for this pair. A correctional fall is probable between 134.43 – 134.06 levels, the breakout of the last reading will lead to a deeper motion, here the target is 133.53, from this level we await a key reversal upwards, the breach of it will influence negatively on the rising cycle development from July 7. The level of 132.26 is a key support for the high and interesting in mid-term outlook, before it we expect the formation of the initial conditions for downward cycle.

Trading recommendation:
Buy: 135.73 Take profit: 136.64
Buy: 137.11 Take profit: 138.23
Sell: 134.06 Take profit: 133.53

Please, note that making my trading recommendations I take into account not all potential of the structure development, but only the major levels.



Performed by Aleksey Almazov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For July; 15th/2010 2010-07-15




Because of yesterday's French Bank holiday and pre-FOMC announcement the market got thin & liquid, so in the result almost all day long EUR/USD moved in a choppy situation; but then when the FOMC announced start this pair has already hit the "Inner Buying Area" at 1.2688 and moved upwards to the Strong Resistance area at 1.2772 and the upward momentum seems will step-by-step reduce; anyway here is the important intraday area of trading levels for this pair today:
Breakout Buy level : 1.2795.
Strong Resistance : 1.2787.
Original Resistance : 1.2775.
Inner Sell Area : 1.2763.
Target Inner Area : 1.2733.
Inner Buy Area : 1.2703.
Original Support : 1.2691.
Strong Support : 1.2679.
Breakout Sell level : 1.2671.
Here is the screenshot at below:





Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For July; 15th/2010 2010-07-15




Here is an important intraday level area for USD/JPY today

Resistance. 3 : 88.61.
Resistance. 2 : 88.45.
Resistance. 1 : 88.28.
Support. 1 : 88.08.
Support. 2 : 87.92.
Support. 3 : 87.75.
Please, pay attention to Support. 3 and Resistance. 3 levels; usually when this pair hits these two levels, it will make this pair to bounce from 10 Pips to 20 Pips; but if after USD/JPY breaks those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3) and still goes to 50 Pips from those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3); this pair seems to continue its movement towards.
Here is the screenshot below:




Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Technical analysis and trading recommendations of EUR/USD for July 15, 2010 2010-07-15


4-hour timeframe



Overview:
Unexpectedly the formed sales signal weakened and canceled, a new signal with target at 1.2975 set instead. The ‘buy’ signal is strong and confirmed, which is indicated by the price placement against Ishimoku and Chinkou Span position above the price curve. The price increased to the first resistance level of 1.2748, therefore, the further movement depends on that is the price able to fixate above this level. If yes, the next target will be the second resistance level of 1.2855. Otherwise, correction is possible. If the price fixes below Kijun-sen, it will mean the current signal weakening. Bollinger bands testify to upward motion. The bands are diverging and up-directed. MACD is rising also signaling about current ascendant movement.
Trading recommendations:
In the current situation, it is recommended to wait for the price fixation above the first resistance level. After that, it will be allowed to open long positions with target at 1.2855. Stop loss to set below 1.2650.
Besides the technical picture, the fundamental reports and time of their release should be taken into account also.
The chart annotation:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.

Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Fractal analysis of the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs. Trading recommendations 2010-07-15




Dear traders,

For the EUR/JPY pair, there are some preconditions for downward correction extending, though the major tendency remains uprising. For the GBP/JPY pair, we again consider the situation in M15 scale for more detailed view. There is potential for descendant movement here, which can lead to a deeper correction.

In this analytical review, we will analyze the development of the structure for today for such pairs as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Having read it, you should realize more clearly possible prospects of the currencies development. In this method, for a simpler representation we use the standard notions of the technical analysis, such as support and resistance levels, though the method itself is based on the properties of the fractal function and has a deep meaning of the current and the future situation understanding. All the calculations are made from the initial conditions of the cycle development. The direction of the price movement from the current initial conditions are shown with a black arrow line. The alternative movement is shown with a red arrow line, in case of breaking through the key levels for cancellation of the uprising or downfalling cycle. As a rule, the red line also indicates the correctional movement and a short-term exit through the level. Do not use only the images; study the text in order to understand the progress of the event.

Forecast for July 15:





For the EUR/JPY, the significant levels are: 116.39, 115.46, 115.08, 113.90, 113.49, 111.98, 111.66, 111.05, 110.70, 110.04 and 108.85. Here, the further ascendant motion is expected after the price passage of the noise range of 113.49 – 113.90, in this case the target is at 115.08, in the corridor of 115.08 – 115.46 is price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered 116.39, after reaching of which a downward rollback is awaited. A correctional downward movement is possible after the hit of the level of 111.66, here the potential target is at 111.05, the price consolidation is expected around this level, the breach of it will influence negatively on the rising tendency development in H1 scale, in this case the first target is 110.04. Also before this level the formation of initial conditions apex for decreasing cycle is probable. The level of 108.85 is key resistance for downward motion and is interesting in mid-term outlook.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 113.90 Take profit: 115.08
Buy: 115.50 Take profit: 116.39
Sell: 111.66 Take profit: 111.05
Sell: 110.70 Take profit: 110.04





For the GBP/JPY pair the important levels are: 137.11, 136.59, 135.71, 135.24, 135.12, 134.24, 133.92, 133.81, 133.35, 133.13, 132.60 and 132.40. Here for more detailed analysis we considered the structure in M15 scale. On July 14, at 11.00, some initial conditions for falling movement are forming, the development of which we await after the breakout of the level of 134.24, in this case the target is at 133.92, near this level the price consolidation due. A downward impulsive movement in this scale can be expected after the breakthrough of the level of 133.81, which will affect negatively the rising tendency development, here the target is 133.35. A price consolidation due in the range of 133.35 – 133.13. A potential value for the low is 132.60, before which the formation of significant initial conditions for descendant movement in H1 scale is awaited. The diapason of 132.60 – 132.40 is noise. Concerning upward motion, the breach of 135.24 will be favorable for its development. Here the first target is 135.71. the breakout of this level will lead to upward tendency extending in H1 scale, here the target is 136.59. The potential value for the top is considered 137.11 for now, after reaching of which the price consolidation is expected in the corridor of 136.59 – 137.11.

Trading recommendation:
Buy: 135.24 Take profit: 135.70
Buy: 135.75 Take profit: 136.59
Sell: 134.24 Take profit: 133.92
Sell: 133.80 Take profit: 133.35

Please, note that making this trading recommendations we take into account not all potential of the structure development, but only the major levels.



Performed by Aleksey Almazov, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

USD/JPY Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For July; 16th/2010 2010-07-16




USD/JPY got a strong momentum against USD yesterday. However here is the important intraday level area for today:

Resistance. 3 : 87.75.
Resistance. 2 : 87.58.
Resistance. 1 : 87.41.
Support. 1 : 87.20.
Support. 2 : 87.02.
Support. 3: 86.85.
Please, pay attention to Support. 3 and Resistance. 3 levels; usually when this pair hits these two levels, it will make this pair to bounce from 10 Pips to 20 Pips; but if after USD/JPY breaks those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3) and still goes to 50 Pips from those levels (Support. 3 or Resistance. 3); this pair seems to continue its movement towards.
The screenshot is below:





Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

EUR/USD Technical Analysis. Support And Resistance Line For July; 16th/2010 2010-07-16




After EUR/USD had closed and opened above the "Breakout BUY Level area", this pair got a strong momentum to upward yesterday. Please, look at the screenshot below (Candlestick in a blue circle), the Price has already closed and opened above the level which we mentioned before:



Here is an important intraday level area for EUR/USD today:
Breakout Buy level : 1.2981.
Strong Resistance : 1.2973.
Original Resistance : 1.2961.
Inner Sell Area : 1.2949.
Target Inner Area : 1.2918
Inner Buy Area : 1.2887.
Original Support : 1.2875.
Strong Support : 1.2862.
Breakout Sell level : 1.2855.
Here is the screenshot below:




Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Candlestick analysis of USD/CHF for 16/07/2010 2010-07-16




USD/CHF currency pair has successfully broken through the support level at 1.0482 and continues the downward movement with the target at 1.0133.
As stated earlier at 4-hour chart USD/CHF currency pair formed Doji candlestick that comes as a downward signal. This candlestick formed after that earlier this currency pair did not manage to break through 1.1674 rate, then the trading pace was set by “bears”.
In addition, USD/CHF broke Fibonacci correctional level 23.6. Its successful break through confirmed that this point of view is the right one. Further on the downward trend there was formed a candlestick combination of “Bearish Engulfing” which approved once again the “bears” dominance.
If the currency pair makes a turnout or breaks through the resistance level at 1.0701, then long positions should be closed as it will target USD/CHF to 1.1000.




Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010

 

[BudakFx]

Candlestick analysis of EUR/GBP (long term outlook) 2010-07-16




At the week chart EUR/GBP currency pair formed a Hammer candlestick that is a signal to the upward movement. In favor of the upward movement comes the fact that this candlestick formed near the support level at 0.8070 where the” bears” could not fix and the “bulls” started increasing their influence and a huge rollback took place.
This candlestick shows that the currency pair was moving downwards after a failed effort of breaking through the resistance level at 0.9411. However, coming closer to 0.8067 it made a turnout.
At present, EUR/GBP is testing Fibonacci correctional level 23.6, its break through will mean that this point of view is right and will also lead upwards to the resistance level at 0.8604.
From the other side, long positions should be closed amid overcoming the support level at 0.8070, as it will open the way to 0.7693 (the minimum of October 2008).





Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010