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Time now: Jun 1, 12:00 AM

Technical Analysis from www.Instaforex.com




At a daily chart the EUR/GBP currency pair has formed a bearish combination of Dark Cloud Cover candlesticks. Nevertheless, it is recommended to open short term positions with Stop orders above 0.8580.




Earlier at a week chart the EUR/GBP had shaped the Hammer candlestick that comes as a bullish signal. In favor of the upward movement gets the fact that this candlestick was formed near the support level of 0.8070, where the "bears" did not manage to solidify, and the bulls had started increasing their impact, so a huge rollback took place.
This candlestick shows that the currency pair was moving down after a failed effort of breaking through the resistance level at 0.9411. However, having come closer to 0.8067, it made a turnout.
The fact that the EUR/GBP had successfully broken through the Fibonacci correction level 23.6 means that this opinion is correct one. An uprush of 0.8605 will target the EUR/GBP to the resistance at 0.9160, where the Fibonacci correction level 61.8 is also located.
On the other hand, long positions should be closed at overcoming the support mark at 0.8070, as it will clear the way to 0.7693 (minimum of October 2008).




Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 


Support levels: 1.0188, 1.0101, 1.0050
Resistance levels: 1.0385, 1.0511,1.0569

On a 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD shows the sideways movement. At present, the viewpoint is neutral. The fact that the USD/CAD has broken through the resistance level of 1.0360 probably means that the rollback from 1.0680 is over. Nevertheless, this viewpoint will be confirmed if the pair breaches the mark of 1.0385. In this case, the upward movement with the target at 1.0511 is expected.
However, if the currency pair breaches the support level of 1.0188 it will denote that the breakout of the resistance level of 1.0360 was false and the downward movement to 1.0101 is expected.
In a midterm, the USD/CAD continues the upside motion after it formed a bottom at 0.9930. A breakthrough of 1.0680 will confirm the upward trend as well as the downward trend with 1.3063 is breached. In this case, it is expected that the USD/CAD pair will go up to Fibonacci correctional level of 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target at Fibonacci correctional level of 61.8 at 1.1866.







Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 


Crude oil
Oil futures were mostly flat on Monday after Friday’s sharp increase. Traders wait for extra signals on the economy recovery pace.
On the NYMEX, light sweet crude futures for November delivery were up 3 cents, to $76.52 a barrel. Brent futures declined 30 cents, to settle at $78.57 a barrel.
Oil futures finished last week at the highest level since September 13, with brighter views on the global economy giving the hope for rising demand for crude oil. After Friday's rally, however, investors have been wary of pushing crude higher without more solid evidence that demand will improve in front of the face of a glut of oil supplies.
Analysts said data due later this week on the U.S. GDP, auto sales and manufacturing sector, as well as the weekly report on oil inventories, could provide clearer direction for crude futures.
Rising stock indices, comments from the Federal Reserve System suggesting that it will support the economy and a weakening of the U.S. dollar have sustained oil futures advance.
However, the U.S. oil and fuel products stockpiles remain near 27-year highs, restraining any oil price growth as well. The high supplies, combined with questions about future demand growth, have kept crude futures in a narrow range between roughly $60 and $70 a barrel even as equities have advanced in September.
Rallies toward the high end of oil's recent trading range have made investors to sell in order to fixate profits. On Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said that money managers, including hedge funds, cut their net long position in NYMEX crude oil futures by 15% in the week ended September 21. The change came in the week right after crude's run above $77 a barrel.




Gold
Gold futures showed a slight move higher to a new record high on Monday. It was due to keeping popularity of precious metals amid expectations for further stimulus in the USA and concerns about sovereign finance of Europe.
According to session’s results, December gold futures rose 50 US cents, to $1298.60 a troy ounce. It became the eighth record close level in the last 10 sessions. Intraday high did not exceed Friday’s all-time peak of $1301.60 an ounce.
Gold's most recent apex has come after the Federal Reserve information last week that further government bond purchases may be on the horizon. The central bank's statement was interpreted as a signal for more easing of monetary policy. Further asset purchases by the Fed would likely devalue the greenback, which would be supportive for dollar-denominated gold.
Gold is also often considered a safe-haven asset because it is not as linked to economic cycles like other commodities or equities.





Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 






Here is an intrday important trading area for this currency today :

Breakout Buy level : 1.3640.
Strong Resistance : 1.3632.
Original Resistance : 1.3619.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3606.
Target Inner Area : 1.3574.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3542.
Original Support : 1.3529.
Strong Support : 1.3516.
Breakout Sell level : 1.3508.



Market Overview :

U.S. Dollar depreciated against other major currencies. The disapoointing consumer confidence data, published yesterday, reinforced the opinion that the U.S. Federal Reserve will realize the quantitative easing program in order to recover its economy. Funds needed for economic recovery is expected to reach 1 trilion. The current U.S. policy will negatively affect the budget so the market will continue selling of the U.S. Dolar. It seems the dollar will weaken against other major currencies. Sluggish U.S. economy will still force traders to sell the dollar.



Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 





Here is an intraday important trading level for this pair today :

Resistance. 3 : 84.32.

Resistance. 2 : 84.15.

Resistance. 1 : 83.99.

Support. 1 : 83.78.

Support. 2 : 83.62.

Support. 3 : 83.45.



Suggestions:


Scalping from 10 pips to 20 pips near 184.47 Support. 3 for BUY and the Resistance. 3 for SELL; but please, pay attention, that if this pair is still moving for 47– 50 pips after breaking through the Support. 3 or the Resistance. 3, then it is likely to continue the advance, so please, change positions beforehand.



Market Outlook :

It is expected that the dollar will weaken against 16 other currencies as the release of the business activity report in the USA showed weakening. The yen is near its strongest level against the dollar, the BoJ Tankan survey is expected to show the weakening of business confidence in the recovery phase, thus encourage the demand for the yen. The FED will increase the relief policies to stimulate the U.S. economy. But the market seemed to ignore the threat of BOJ to continue to buy back yen. The author himself predicts BOJ will act again if the yen approaches its strongest level in the history.



Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 


Support levels: 1.0188, 1.0101, 1.0050
Resistance levels: 1.0385, 1.0511,1.0569

On a 4-hour chart, the USD/CAD currency pair shows high volatility. At present, the viewpoint is neutral. As it was mentioned before, the fact that the USD/CAD has broken through the resistance level of 1.0360, probably means the rollback from 1.0680 is over. Nevertheless, if the pair breaches the mark of 1.0385 this viewpoint will be confirmed. In this case, the upward movement with the target to 1.0511 is expected. However, in case the currency pair breaks through the support level of 1.0188 it will indicate that the breakout of the resistance level of 1.0360 was false and the downward movement to 1.0101 should be expected. In a midterm, the USD/CAD continues the uprising motion after it formed a bottom at 0.9930. The breakthrough of 1.0680 will confirm the upward trend and that the downside trend with 1.3063 is breached. In this case, it is expected that the USD/CAD will move up to Fibonacci correctional level of 38.2 from 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 with the next target to Fibonacci correctional level of 67.8 at 1.1866.











Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 


Tuesday the stock indexes of the USA were up-directed, despite the lowering of the consumer confidence index in the USA and the production index of the FRS Richmond. The investors saw a sign in the economic weakness that the Federal Reserve System is likely to apply to further stimulation. Dow Jones Industrial Average index closed on the upside by 46,10 points or by 0,43% to 10858,14. Nasdaq Composite index ticked up by 9,82 points or by 0,41% to 2379,59, Standard & Poor's 500 gained 5,54 points or 0,49% touching 1147,70.
The companies shares of the health care sector were the growth leaders supported by the report which showed a confident surge of Walgreen sales. Walgreen shares moved up by 11%.
The best dynamics was also demonstrated by Pfizer shares increased by 1,5%. Intel papers turned up by 1,4%, Alcoa shares – by 1,2%. 
Reports on the housing market, consumer confidence, activity and production sectors within the FRS-Richmond responsibility signaled that the economy remains weak. However, the investors took the disappointing data as a sign that the FRS may take new measures for backing up the economy, even if it poses a threat of inflation rising. According to Wall Street Journal, the FRS considers a new tactics of buying the long term state bonds of the USA for helping a slow recovery.
The expectations that some actions would result in the inflation uprise and in its turn harm the dollar pushed the American currency downwards.




Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 


Earlier on a daily chart, the NZD/USD pair has formed the combination of candlesticks Breakaway thus indicating the downward movement.
This candlestick formed near the resistance level of 0.7415 where the bulls did not strengthen.
A breakthrough of Fibonacci correctional level of 23.6 will mean that this viewpoint is correct. In this case, the downside movement to the support level of 0.7159 should be expected. The breach of this mark will lead to the downward movement with the target to 0.6947. Nevertheless, it can be limited by Fibonacci correctional level of 50.0 near 0.7000. It is recommended to set the stop orders slightly above 0.7415, as the breakthrough of this resistance level will set a target to 0.7450 for the currency pair.



Performed by Vladimir Donin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 


4-hour timeframe



Overview:
Buy signal with the target to 1.3064 is continuing. This signal is strong and confirmed as the price fixed above the Ishimoku cloud and the Chinkou Span is above the price chart. The target has been passed, however, the signs that the uprising movement is over are not observed. Alongside, the price is above the pivot level of 1.3337, which offers the next target of the movement to 1.3647 – the first resistance level. In case this level is passed the further target will be 1.3803 – the second resistance level. If the price is below the Kijun-Sen (1.3435) that will denote he weakening of the current signal and the point to reduce long positions. The Chinkou Span is above the price chart, which is a confirmation of the current buy signal. The Bollinger Bands show the upward movement, the lines are diverging and directed upside. The MACD is ascending thus demonstrating the current upturn.

Trading recommendations:

Currently, it is recommended to trade long with the target at 1.3647. Stop-loss is set below 1.3435. If the MACD reverses down, the long positions should be cut manually.

In addition to technical image one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

The chart annotation:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 





Here is an intraday important trading area for this pair today :

Breakout Buy level : 1.3694.
Strong Resistance : 1.3686.
Original Resistance : 1.3673.
Inner Sell Area : 1.3660.
Target Inner Area : 1.3628.
Inner Buy Area : 1.3596.
Original Support : 1.3583.
Strong Support : 1.3570.
Breakout Sell level : 1.3562.



Market Overview :

On Wednesday, the French President Nicholas Sarkozy proposed the biggest reduction of budget deficit in two decades to calm investors and maintain the credit rating of France. Next year France plans to cut its government debt ratio from 7.8% of its gross domestic product to 6%. Many of economists forecast the steps of French president will put France in a position less advantageous than the major countries of the Euro zone. Meanwhile, Spain is currently worried about the results of Moody's ratings with the qualification AAA that seems to be lost. This can happen if the Spanish economy in the third quarter shows a significant change. According to Moody’s, Spain will need many years to restore the economy especially with the predicted economic growth of only about 1% during the years 2010 to 2014.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2010
 

Live Forex Chart

Currency
Rates
EUR / USD
1.12027
USD / JPY
158.100
GBP / USD
1.32167
USD / CHF
0.83191
USD / CAD
1.42558
EUR / JPY
177.115
AUD / USD
0.69684
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