Technical Analyis by Nitufx

[nitufx]

Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
1284.29
0.09
(0.01%)
04:42:23 (GMT)
Start trading Sell
Bid: 1283.99
Ask: 1284.59
Open: 1284.2
High: 1285.12
Low: 1281.8
08:0016:0015. Jun1275128012851290
prices continue to gain traction rising for a 6th consecutive trading session, and poised to test the May highs at 1,304. Softer than expected U.S. Retail Sales helped buoy the price of the yellow metal. Support on gold is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,252. Momentum is positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index prints in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices for the yellow metal. The RSI (relative strength index) moved higher with price action reflecting accelerating positive momentum.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.5% in many with the ex-auto component up 0.4%, a little softer than forecast. There were no revisions to the 1.3% headline gain in April and the 0.8% ex-auto gain. Sales excluding autos, gas, and building materials increased 0.5% versus 0.9% previously.

 

[nitufx]

Gold dipped almost $5 as Brexit fears lowered. Gold is trading at 1289.40. According to Isaac John at Khaleej Times Gold prices, which rallied to a near two-year peak last week as investors sought the "safe-haven" commodity on fears of Brexit, could hit $1,400 if Britain votes to exit the European Union in the June 23rd referendum.

"The big question remains what kind of impact the vote will have on the yellow metal. We view the risk reward as being skewed to the upside," said Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank.

Gold, whose twin drivers are investment buying and jewelry demand, surged on Thursday to $1,315.71 an ounce – this is the highest it has traded since August 2014.

"A vote to leave the European Union would almost ensure a prolonged period of uncertainty where stocks could suffer and bonds continue to be sought. While it may also support the dollar thereby creating some headwind giving the negative correlation we see an increased risk that gold could be propelled towards $1400, the 2014 high," Hansen wrote.

"A 'remain' result would initially trigger a major relief rally across global stocks but with the dollar also likely to weaken and with global bond yields remaining compressed we see the downside risk limited to around $1250/oz.," he said. Most analysts are of the view that precious metals, which are famous for their safe-haven appeal, are poised to bounce when risks in the markets rise. "Thus, the volatility over Brexit is also helping gold rise," they said.

According to James Butterfill, head of research and investment strategy at ETF Securities, the yellow metal is set to become one of the biggest beneficiaries of a "leave vote" on June 23 and could rise as much as eight per cent from current levels.

 

[nitufx]

50% Level at 1.1125 is Controlling the EUR/USD

The EUR/USD closed sharply lower last week, reaffirming the downtrend. The Forex pair also closed on the weak side of the major 50% level. This was further indication of a weakening market.
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The next target is a main bottom at 1.0821. A trade through 1.1426 will turn the main trend to up.
The main range is 1.1712 to 1.0539. Its 50% level or pivot is 1.1125. This is a major price level. Trader reaction to this pivot could should determine the longer-term trend of the Euro. So watch the price action and read the order flow all week at this price level. We could see a choppy, two-sided trade on both sides of this pivot until the bulls or the bears decide to take control.

Since last week’s close was below the pivot at 1.1125 and the long-term up trending angle at 1.1139, we are likely to start this week with an early downside bias.
A sustained move under 1.1125 will indicate the presence of sellers. Crossing to the weak side of the steep down trending angle at 1.0976 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.
The weekly chart begins to open up to the downside under 1.0976 with the next major targets an up trending angle at 1.0839 and the main bottom at 1.0821.
A sustained move over 1.1125 will signal the presence of buyers. However, overtaking the up trending angle at 1.1139 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create enough upside momentum to trigger a strong rally into the nearest down trending angle at 1.1296.
Watch the price action and read the order flow at 1.1125 all week. This is the major price level controlling the direction of the Euro. Since it is a horizontal line, it is going to be important over the long-run as long as the Euro stays in the 1.1712 to 1.0539 range.

 

[nitufx]

EUR/USD Forecast July 8, 2016, Technical Analysis.
The EUR/USD pair fell during the day on Thursday, as we continue to consolidate overall. We have broken down below and uptrend line recently, and have even retested it for resistance. Because of this, I feel there is a significant amount of downward pressure in this market building up. However, today is Nonfarm Payroll Friday, and that means anything can happen. I would not be willing to buy this pair until we break out and above the former uptrend line. As far selling is concerned, I’m willing to sell on signs of weakness as they appear, as I believe the market will probably try to reach towards the 1.09 level below.