Solforex.com - Weekly/Daily Forex Market Analysis

[limyeeshin]

Thursday 3 March 2016​

Dollar remains supported near one-month highs

The U.S. dollar remained supported after the release of firm employment data adding confidence on the health of the economy. The dollar traded near one-month highs against other major currencies, with index at 98.52, up 0.17%. ADP reported that non-farm private employment increased by 214,000 last month, much above expected rise of 190,000. The continuous upbeat national data added optimism over the strength of the economy and spurred expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate monetary tightened path for the next rate hike.


The euro hits 3 week lows against greenback

The euro fell against the dollar in the late trading, hitting fresh three-week lows after the upbeat U.S. employment data. EUR/USD traded between 1.0825 and 1.0881 and settled at 1.0869, falling 0.06% for the session. The euro has plummeted by almost 4% against the U.S. counterpart since February 11. Meanwhile, the traders continued to evaluate downbeat euro zone inflation as they await next week’s rate decision by the European Central Bank. The ECB is widely expected to lower its deposit and lending rates and extend the scope of quantitative easing program to improve the economic growth.


Sterling goes bullish despite the Brexit concerns

The British pound turned bullish against the dollar despite slowed data on construction amid concerns continued on Brexit issues in the Euro bloc. The Markit construction purchasing managers’ index fell to 54.2 from January’s 55, disappointing expected rise to 55.5. The housebuilding expanded at the slowest pace since 2013 with overall output slowed to ten-month lows. The previous report on manufacturing sector also slumped to the lowest in almost three years. GBP/USD traded at 1.4064, up 0.78%.


Aussie goes stronger after upbeat GDP

The Australian and New Zealand dollars turned bullish against the U.S. counterpart on Wednesday late trading. The Aussie surged 1.18% at 0.7260 after the data showing that Australian gross domestic product grew 0.6% in the fourth quarter, above 0.4% rise seen. The Australian economy grew 3.0% in the fourth quarter on annual basis, beating expectations for 2.5%. NZD/USD also edged up 0.11%, traded at 0.6635.


Major pairs

USD/JPY ↓0.08% 113.92
EUR/USD ↓0.37% 1.0827
USD/CAD ↑0.32% 1.3451
GBP/USD ↑0.78% 1.4062
USD/CHF ↑0.30% 1.0005
AUD/USD ↑1.18% 0.7260
NZD/USD ↑0.11% 0.6635


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 46｜March 7, 2016​

The dollar fell broadly against other major currencies on Friday after the release of mixed U.S. labor data for February. The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 242,000 new jobs last month, way above the forecast of 190,000. The unemployment rate was in line with the expectation at 4.9% at an eight-year low rate. But the average hourly earnings dropped by 0.1% and it lowered the yearly gain in earnings to 2.2% from 2.5% in January. The weak wage dampened the expectation for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in short term. The trade balance for January also came in lower at -$457 billion with 2.1% drop in export and 1.3% drop in import. Fed policy makers are watching inflation closely for the determination of their monetary path. The U.S. dollar fell 0.85% weekly at 97.34. EUR/USD rose by 0.45%, traded at 1.1004. USD/JPY stayed flat, traded at 113.76.

Commodity linked currencies were generally bullish with rally in commodity prices. Canadian dollar hit three-month highs, supported from solid domestic trade that reduced ongoing expectations for the Central bank to lower the rate. The Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar also rose more than 1%. But the Australian dollar fell in early Asia on Monday after the release of disappointing construction data. The AIG construction index came in at 46.1 for February from 46.3 in previous month. AUD/USD dropped by 0.28%, traded at 0.7417.

In the week ahead investors will be focusing on Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting. The ECB disappointed expectations for the quantitative easing program with smaller than expected stimulus move in December. Also, Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold monetary policy meeting.

In the weekend China is to release bundle of data followed by the trade balance on Tuesday. Investors will be attentive to the figures for indicating outlook for global economic health amid concerns for the world’s second largest economy is on bumpy landing.


Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.


Monday, March 7
Japan is to release composite leading index.
In Australia, AIG is to report on construction activities.
Germany is to publish data on factory orders.
In the Eurozone, Sentix is to report on investor confidence.
The U.S. is to release labor market conditions index.
Federal Reserve members Lael Brainard and Stanley Fischer are to speak at an event in Washington.

Tuesday, March 8
In Australia, NAB is to report on business confidence.
Japan is to release data on finalized fourth quarter GDP growth followed by data on consumer confidence and bank loans.
China is to produce its trade balance.
Germany is to publish data on industrial production.
Eurozone is to release revised fourth quarter GDP growth.
Canada is to release data on building permits.
The U.S. is to publish the red-book followed by data on small business confidence.

Wednesday, March 9
Australia is to release data on home loans and NFIB’s report on consumer sentiment.
The U.K. is to publish data on industrial productions.
Bank of Canada is to hold monetary policy meeting and announce its benchmark rate and give rate statements.
The U.S. is to release data on mortgage applications and wholesale inventory.

Thursday, March 10
Japan is to publish data on producer price inflation.
Australia is to release data on MI inflation for February.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to hold monetary policy meeting and announce its benchmark interest rate and give rate statements.
China is to release data on consumer and producer prices inflation followed by data on initial loans.
Germany is to report on its trade balance.
In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank is to hold monetary policy meeting and determine its stimulus asset buying.
The U.S. is to release its weekly initial jobless claims.

Friday, March 11
Germany is to release data on consumer price inflation.
The U.K. is to publish report on trade balance.
Canada is to release its monthly employment report.
The U.S. is to publish data on import and export prices.
In the weekend, China is to release data on industrial production and retail sales.


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Thursday 10 March 2016​

U.S. dollar trims gains ahead of ECB meeting

The dollar trimmed gains broadly against other major currencies on Wednesday, falling near two-week lows. The market participants turned their attention to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting for further stimulus purchasing as the global economic health is still in concerns. The ECB is widely expected to extend its asset purchasing program to combat ongoing low inflation in the euro area. The bank is also expected to cut rates further into negative boundary at the policy review on Thursday. The dollar dropped itself by 0.16% to 97.37. EUR/USD traded at 1.0974.

NZ dollar falls on a rate cut by RBNZ

The New Zealand dollar fell after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. The rate cut was unexpected to most analysts and the market participants and lowered kiwi by 0.27%. The central bank also indicated that there might be further easing to ensure future inflation settles near the middle of the target range. It also noted that the rates will soon be cut to 2.0% and there is a possibility that it can go below 2.0%. NZD/USD traded at 0.6634 on Thursday, while AUD/USD trading at 0.7472, down 0.16%.

Yen eases after upbeat China CPI

Japanese yen eased in Asia after the release of upbeat consumer price index in China. Consumer prices in China have grown in a faster pace than the expectation in February. The CPI for February rose 1.6%, higher than 1.1% gain expected. Also, the yearly pace was faster at 2.3%, above 1.9% seen, while producer prices fell 4.9% in yearly basis. Meanwhile in Japan CGPI fell 0.2% monthly and 3.4% year on year decline, matching expectations. USD/JPY gained 0.22%, traded at 113.59.


Major pairs


USD/JPY ↑0.44% 113.78
EUR/USD ↓0.24% 1.0974
USD/CAD ↑0.23% 1.3278
GBP/USD ↓0.13% 1.4198
USD/CHF ↑0.03% 0.9976
AUD/USD ↓0.11% 0.7477


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 47｜March 14, 2016​

The euro reversed on Friday after a strong gain on Thursday with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announcing that the rate won’t fall under negative territory. The comments came after the ECB delivering a package of stimulus measure stronger than expected. ECB also cut interest rates across the Eurozone to the lowest level in history and augmented the quantitative easing program. The ECB Council member Erkki Liikanen added on Friday that the bank has not run out of tools to recover the economy and it will be supported until reaching 2% inflation target. EUR/USD pair reversed 0.27% to 1.1148 in late trade but still gained 1.43% for the week.

The U.S. dollar fell broadly against other major currencies on Friday after the Central Bank of China increased the fixed rate of yuan which boosted risk appetite. The central bank lifted yuan’s fixed rate following a sharp rebound in the euro after the European Central Bank meeting. Mario Draghi’s announcement that the rates will not be cut deeper into negative boundary boosted commodity prices and commodity linked currencies, making the dollar broadly fall. The dollar itself fell 1.2% for the week at 96.23, near one-month lows of 95.94.

In the weekend, China released bundle of data showing that factory output is in the slowest pace since November 2008. Industrial production also rose below the expectation at the annual rate of 5.4% following the gain of 5.9% in the previous month. The concerns were added that the economy is still under ongoing slowdown that requires more support from the government to boost the economy.

Japanese yen eased in Asia after a big boost in machinery orders in Japan. In Japan, core machinery orders for January hiked by 15%, much above the 3.0% increase seen for the month. The yearly gain was seen as 8.4%, far outpacing the expectation of 3.6% decline. USD/JPY traded at 113.95 on Monday, up 0.11%.

Elsewhere, commodity linked currencies were generally bullish, with AUD/USD gaining 1.48% at 0.7563 and NZD/USD advancing 1.14%, trading at 0.6743. USD/CAD pair also fell by 0.98% at 1.3214 with rally in oil prices beating slowed employment report in Canada.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. It is broadly expected that the Federal Reserve will freeze the rates after the hike in December. Also, there will be central bank’s policy meetings in Japan and Switzerland.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 14
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler is to speak at an event in Auckland.
In Japan, the data on core machinery orders will be published. Also, Bank of Japan is to start the monetary policy meeting for two days until 15th.
Eurozone is to release data on January’s industrial production.

Tuesday, March 15
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan will publish the minutes on its latest meeting and announce its benchmark rate and give rate statement for the indication of economic conditions. Data on industrial production and industrial activity will be released subsequently.
Eurozone is to publish data on number of movements in employment for the fourth quarter.
The U.S. is to release string of data on producer price inflation, retail sales, New York state manufacturing, and housing market index.

Wednesday, March 16
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish a report on financial stability.
The U.K. is to release data on average income, inflation rate, and changes in unemployment benefits.
Canada is to produce data on manufacturing sales.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to release its recent monetary policy meeting minutes and announce benchmark rate and rate statements.
The bundle of data will be released subsequently, on mortgage applications, consumer prices, housing starts, building permits, and industrial production for February.

Thursday, March 17
New Zealand is to publish data on its gross domestic product.
Japan is to release its trade balance.
Australia is to report on employment changes and unemployment rate.
Bank of England is to hold monetary policy meeting and announce its rate decisions.
The Eurozone is to release data on February’s consumer prices and its trade balance.
The U.S. is to produce data on weekly initial jobless claims and Philadelphia state manufacturing.

Friday, March 18
Japan is to release its latest monetary policy meeting minutes.
China is to release housing price index.
Germany is to release data on producer price inflations for February.
Canada is to publish data on retail sales and inflation.
The U.S. is to release data on consumer sentiment.

(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Thursday 17 March 2016​

U.S. dollar drops with Fed’s dovish moves

The dollar turned bearish after the Federal Reserve lowered expectations for the rate hike this year at the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday. In earlier trading, the dollar was stronger with wide expectations that the meeting will be hawkish. But Fed Chair Janet Yellen showed dovish stance indicating cautious movements toward future rate hike, lowered the dollar. The Fed lowered future outlook on GDP, price inflations and dot plots. Such cautious moves came days after the ECB unveiled a comprehensive easing measures laws week. EUR/USD surged to one-month high by gaining 0.99%, trading at 1.1217 on the session.

Yen falls with narrower than expected trade balance

Japanese yen changed hands against the dollar on Thursday after the adjusted trade balance for February came in lower than the expectation. The trade balance came at a surplus of ￥170 billion, below ￥240 billion seen. Exports fell 4.0% on annualized rate, more than 3.1% decline seen, and imports dropped 14.2%, under 15.2% expected. Earlier on Tuesday, Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate steady at negative -0.1%. USD/JPY traded at 112.85, up 0.26%.


Aussie gains after unemployment rate drops
The Australian dollar gained on Thursday as overall employment data meets market sentiments. The unemployment rate in Australia came in at 5.8%, below the 6.0% expected with a gain of 3,000 jobs in February. AUD/USD traded at 0.7582, up 0.41%. Earlier, in near New Zealand, the fourth quarter GDP rose 0.9% quarter on quarter, above 0.6% increase expected. NZD/USD traded at 0.6750.

Major pairs

USD/JPY ↑0.13% 112.69
EUR/USD ↓0.04% 1.1220
USD/CAD ↓0.02% 1.3098
GBP/USD ↑0.05% 1.4266
USD/CHF ↑0.10% 0.9778
AUD/USD ↑0.70% 0.7605


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 48｜March 21, 2016​

The U.S. dollar rebounded from a five-month low against other major currencies on Friday after investors bought back dollars following a heavy selloff earlier of the week. The dollar found support from the increased expectation of price inflation by the recover in oil prices and the Fed’s dovish stances on growth forecast that instigates purchases of inflation-indexed government bonds. Fed president James Bullard also mentioned that low interest rates may be causing persistently low inflation, that the Fed’s current policy position remains extreme at its current level. The dollar still ended the week low by 1.09% at 95.07.

The dollar also edged up from 17 month lows against Japanese yen on Friday after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso mentioned that foreign exchange market moves are to be closely watched for the speculation. The Bank of Japan’s recent meeting minutes showed two proposals by policymakers, one to extend the bank’s measure of quantitative easing program and another to add negative rates to the asset purchases. The minute also had the BOJ’s final decision to adopt the negative interest rate. The dollar fell almost 2% against the yen in weekly basis, the steepest loss in five weeks. JPY/USD traded at 111.44.

The euro retreated from its five-week high gain against greenback on Friday after The European Central Bank Chief Economist Peter Praet mentioned that Eurozone’s interest rates could be even further lowered. Last week, the ECB approved a host of stimulus measures including lowering rates to negative territory and increasing the scope of quantitative easing program. EUR/USD traded in a wide range between 1.1206 and 1.1343 before settling at 1.1269, down 0.42%. The pair still gained more than 1% weekly, and 1.3% monthly against the dollar.

The Australian dollar held weaker in early Asia on Monday after parsing China policy views on prospects for monetary easing as Australia’s one of biggest trade partner China’s economic outlook is closely linked to the currency. On Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Japan has reached an agreement for local currency swap to enhance the financial stability of the two nations. AUD/USD traded at 0.7594, down 0.18%. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar edged down against the dollar over the weekend to 0.6773 after hitting five-month high of 0.6874 on Friday.

In the week ahead, market players will be paying close attention to the U.S. fourth quarter GDP and durable goods orders to measure the health of economy for further indication of Fed’s rate hike this year. The Eurozone’s survey data for business activity will by also in focus to take the hint on region’s economy stability.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 21
Markets in Japan are shut for the national holiday.
The Eurozone is to release data on consumer sentiment followed by the data on current account.
The U.S. is to publish data on Chicago region’s manufacturing and national existing home sales for February. State Fed presidents are to speak at events throughout the day.

Tuesday, March 22
The Australia is to release fourth quarter’s housing price index. Also, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens is to speak at an event in Sydney.
Japan is to publish data on PMI manufacturing and private sector on business activity.
In Germany, IFO institute is to report on business climate and ZEW institute is to publish March report on Germany and Eurozone’s business sentiment.
The Eurozone is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity.
The U.K. is to publish bundle of data on consumer and producer price inflation, retail prices, and housing prices.
The U.S. is to release data on FHFA housing price index, preliminary manufacturing for March, and Richmond region’s manufacturing.

Wednesday, March 23
The U.S. is to release data on MBA mortgage applications, new home sales, and weekly report on oil inventories.

Thursday, March 24
New Zealand is to release its trade balance.
The U.K. is to publish data on retail sales.
In Germany, GfK is to report on consumer sentiments.
The U.S. is to release bundle of data on durable goods orders, core machinery orders, initial jobless claims, and PMI service sector.

Friday, March 25
Markets in New Zealand, Australia, U.K., Germany, Canada, and United states are shut for Good Friday.
Japan is to release data on core consumer prices.
The U.S. is to produce data on fourth quarter GDP growth final reading and business profits at the end of the day.

(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Thursday 31 March 2016​

U.S. dollar weakens with Fed’s dovish stance

The U.S. dollar fell to five month lows against other major currencies on Wednesday despite strong jobs report. The Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen commented at the Economic Club on late Tuesday that the global risks to the U.S. economy, including oil prices and uncertainty over China justifies a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy. The comments contrasted with recent hawkish statements from some of the Fed members who signaled the next rate hike could be as fast as next month. The ADP non-farm private employment however rose beyond expectation in February with 200,000 new jobs, compared to 194,000 forecasted. The greenback hit the lowest level since October at 94.64 by falling 0.57% and rebounded to 94.87 on Thursday.

Yen rises against greenback despite slowed production

Japanese yen rebounded against the U.S. counterpart despite huge drop in factory output as investors weighed more on Fed’s dovish statements. In Japan, provisional industrial production figures for February fell 6.2%, further drop from 6.0% expected. The Factory output posted the biggest drop in February since a massive earthquake and tsunami in 2011 hit the supply chain, giving fears toward risk of falling into a recession. Earlier on Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he will proceed with planned sales tax hike in April unless the economy hits severe shock. The yen was broadly lower then rebounded after Fed’s dovish stances. USD/JPY traded at 112.47, slipping 0.20%.

Commodity currencies find support as oil prices rise

The commodity linked currencies found support from rebound in oil prices on a smaller than anticipated rise in crude oil stock piles. The fed’s dovish movements have also added gains to according currencies. CAD/USD rose 1.13% at 1.2923 and NZD/USD rallied 1.37% to a five month high of 0.6942. The AUD/USD pair hit 0.7702 and fell down to 0.7650 on Thursday after the disappointing home sales figure.

Euro extends its gains with faded expectations on U.S. rate hike

The euro added gains against the dollar as the extremely dovish comments from the Federal Reserve faded the expectations toward next rate hike in April. Meanwhile in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank Executive member Benoit Coeure emphasized that the negative rates are not the main tool as it looks for ways to boost sluggish inflation. He also added that it is unlikely that the ECB will begin offering direct cash to consumers as a way of bolstering economy. Earlier this month, the ECB has lowered its deposit rate further down negative territory. EUR/USD hit 1.1356, rising 0.59%.

Major pairs currently (Thursday update)

USD/JPY ↓0.08% 112.61
EUR/USD ↓0.22% 1.1313
USD/CAD ↑0.32% 1.3007
GBP/USD ↓0.31% 1.4333
USD/CHF ↑0.11% 0.9660
AUD/USD ↓0.35% 0.7645


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 49｜April 4, 2016​

The U.S. dollar closed the week with almost five-month lows against other major currencies on Friday despite stronger than expected economic reports. Investors weighed more to Federal Reserve’s dovish stances last week that the rate hike by Fed is less likely to be implemented in short-term. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy added 215,000 jobs last month, above the expectation of 205,000 jobs growth seen. The unemployment rate slightly went up to 5% from eight year low of 4.9% but it was seen as more people entered into the labor market. The average hourly earnings also rose by 7 cents following 2 cents drop in February. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.8 from 49.5 in previous month, showing first expansion in six months as new orders increased. The upbeat reports however did not alter investors’ expectations for Fed to remain cautious on monetary tightening as dovish comments were made by Fed members last week. The dollar itself closed the week down 1.65% with quarterly drop of 4.16%.

The euro hit fresh five-month highs against the greenback on Friday with Federal Reserve’s cautious movements. The EUR/USD pair hit 1.1437 before settling at 1.1389 in late trade with upbeat U.S. data. The euro has surged almost 5% against the U.S. counterpart as ongoing concerns on a sharp divergence in monetary policies are now fading. The euro shrugged off friction between the Greek government and the IMF on Monday, rising 0.09% to 1.1399. In the Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in March from 51.4 in the previous month. The U.K. manufacturing rose to 51.0 in March, below the expected increase to 51.2. The euro was sharply higher against British pound, with EUR/GBP pair rallying 1.01% at 0.8004 on Friday.

The Australian dollar fell in Asia on Monday morning with disappointing economic data. In Australia, the MI inflation gauge for March was flat after 0.2% monthly drop in February. Also, building approvals for February jumped 3.1%, from the 2.0% gain seen monthly. The private house approvals dipped 1.2% in February and retail sales were also flat compared to 0.4% gain seen. AUD/USD traded at 0.7643, down 0.49. Elsewhere, the save haven yen rose against the dollar at 111.55 and Swiss franc also gained against the U.S. counterpart at 0.9580, up 0.38%.

In the week ahead, market players will be paying close attention to the Fed’s March meeting minutes giving insights how officials digest the economic outlook. Also, there will be trade, manufacturing and service sector report releases in the U.S for further indication on the health of the economy.


Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.


Monday, April 4
Markets in China are shut for the national holiday.
Japan is to release data on reserve base.
Australia is to release data on MI inflation, building approvals and retail sales.
The U.K. is to release data on construction sector.
In the Eurozone, Sentix is to report on investor sentiment followed by data releases on producer prices and unemployment rate.
The U.S. is to publish data on labor market condition index and factory orders.

Tuesday, April 5
Japan is to release data on PMI service sector.
Australia is to publish data on service sector and trade balance, followed by the central bank’s recent meeting minutes.
Germany is to release data on factory orders.
The Eurozone is to publish data on PMI service sector and retail sales.
The Bank of England is to release its recent monetary policy meeting minutes.
The U.S is to produce bundle of data on trade balance, PMI service activity and ISM non-manufacturing index.
Canada is to release its trade balance.

Wednesday, April 6
China is to publish Caixin index on service sector.
Germany is to release data on industrial production, construction activity, and retail sales.
The Eurozone is also to publish retail sales data.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to release its recent monetary policy meeting minutes.

Thursday, April 7
The Swiss National Bank is to release its foreign currency reserves.
Australia is to release data on construction activity.
The U.K. is to publish data on house price index.
In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank is to publish its recent monetary policy meeting minutes.
Canada is to release data on building permits.
The U.S. is to produce data on weekly initial jobless claims and consumer sentiments.

Friday, April 8
Japan is to release data on consumer sentiment.
Germany is to publish data on trade balance and current account.
The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing production.
Canada is to publish monthly report on employment and followed by data on new starts.
The U.S. is to close the week with the wholesale inventory data.


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Thursday 7 April 2016​

Dollar edges down after Fed’s minutes
The U.S. dollar trimmed down further against other major currencies after the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary meeting minutes showed majority number members taken dovish stances. The minutes highlighted cautious approach toward future interest rate hikes. It also implied that the Federal Reserve appears less likely to raise the rates before June due to ongoing concern on global economic slowdown. The minutes also showed debate over whether it is appropriate to raise rates in April. The committee held steady for funds rate at 0.25% to 0.50% on a 9-1 vote. The dollar hit 18 month lows against the yen at 109.34 on Thursday before settling at 109.83, down 0.50%. The greenback itself fell 0.13%, to 94.49.


Aussie gains despite disappointing construction data
The Australian dollar gained against the U.S. counterpart in early Asia on Thursday as investors lowered their expectations for next rate hike in sooner period. In Australia, AIG construction index came in at 45.2, contracting from 46.1. The construction activity contracted consecutively and at a steeper pace with house-building falling sharpest in 14 months. AUD/USD pair rose 0.20%, traded at 0.7612.


Euro inches up against the greenback following the minutes
The euro also inched up against the dollar after the FOMC minutes release, debating appropriate timing of rate hike. EUR/USD pair traded in a tight range between 1.1327 and 1.1431 before settling at 1.1397. The euro rallied for five days laws week following the losing streak. EUR/USD closed above 1.13 for the sixth consecutive sessions. The euro as soared 2.4% since the Federal Reserve lowered its outlook for its long-term interest rate hike. The European Central Bank is to release its recent monetary policy meeting minutes today followed by the ECB Governor Mario Draghi’s speech.


Yen gains sharply after Kuroda’s comments
Japanese yen gained sharply on Thursday in Asia with safe-haven asset buying despite verbal warnings from Japanese officials against its appreciation. Earlier the week, the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe interviewed with Wall Street Journal that countries should avoid seeking to weaken their currencies with arbitrary intervention. Also, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remarked that he would act quickly to boost stimulus measures if necessary. Bank of Japan policymakers will likely to debate on further easing at their upcoming meeting on April 27. The yen hit highest level against the dollar since October 2014 at 109.17 on Thursday.


Major pairs currently (Thursday update)
USD/JPY ↓0.50% 109.24
EUR/USD ↑0.02% 1.1399
USD/CAD ↓0.14% 1.3074
GBP/USD ↓0.08% 1.4111
USD/CHF ↓0.02% 0.9555
AUD/USD ↑0.04% 0.7600
NZD/USD ↓0.02% 0.6822


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 50｜April 11, 2016​

Japanese yen rallied to fresh 17-month highs on Monday with little signs of abating despite comments by Japan’s finance minister aimed at weakening the currency. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga announced that the government was closely monitoring the foreign exchange market, noting the yen moves were speculative and one-sided. The unwelcome gain in the yen increased the pressure on the authorities to take steps. The verbal intervention however has yet limited the impact on gains as the yen is hardly strong at current levels. Part of the reason for the yen’s rally also comes from reduced expectations on U.S. rate hike by Federal Reserve’s dovish stances. The U.S. dollar fell as low as 107.63, beating last week’s lows of 107.67 and extended last week’s sharp drop of 3.3%. The dollar has lost 10% against the yen this year. Also, EUR/JPY traded at 122.95 falling 3.1% last week, while GBP/JPY hit 2.5-year low of 151.88 on last Thursday.

The U.S. dollar has been hit with increased views that the Federal Reserve is likely to take a cautious approach on next rate hike in the coming months. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said that U.S. GDP has hardly grown during the first quarter. The first GDP grew, 0.1% below 0.4% forecasts and there were sharp declines in wholesale trade sector in February. Meanwhile, the Fed Chair Janet Yellen tried to reassure investors on Thursday that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing and the hesitancy of rate hike comes from increased global financial risks. The dollar index fell 0.3% at 94.22 late Friday.

The euro touched highest level since last October against the U.S. counterpart, soaring more than 2.6% in one month. While increased views on the U.S. Federal Reserve to take cautious steps for raising interest rates for the short term with dovish stances, the European Central Bank senior officials reiterated that further monetary stimulus measures will be implemented if necessary. EUR/USD settled at 1.1402, up 0.22% on late Friday session.

The commodity linked currencies generally strengthened with rally in oil prices. AUD/USD was up 0.67%, trading at 0.7555 and NZD/USD also rose to 0.6806, up 0.46%. The Canadian dollar also hit one week highs, supported by the strong Canadian jobs report. USD/CAD traded at 1.2978, falling 1.29%.

In the week ahead, market players will be paying close attention to upcoming inflation reports from the U.S., Europe and China. On Friday, Chinese first quarter growth will be also closely watched amid ongoing concerns on economy slowdown.


Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.


Monday, April 11
Japan is to release data on core machinery orders.
China is to publish data on consumer and producer price inflation, and foreign direct investments.
Australia is to release data on home loans.


Tuesday, April 12
Japan is to publish data on bank loans and factory machinery orders.
In Australia, NAB is to report on business confidence.
Germany is to release data on consumer price inflation.
The U.K. is to publish data on consumer and producer price inflation, and retail price index.
In the U.S., data on import and export prices is to be released.


Wednesday, April 13
Japan is to release producer price index for March.
China is to publish its trade balance.
In Australia, Westpac is to report on consumer sentiments.
Eurozone is to release data on industrial production.
Bank of Canada is to hold monetary policy meeting and announce its benchmark rate with rate statements. It is widely expected to keep the rate at 0.50%.
The U.S. is to release bundle of reports on mortgage, retail sales, producer price inflation, and business inventory.


Thursday, April 14
Australia is to release its monthly report on employment.
The Eurozone is to publish report on consumer price inflation with revised core consumer prices.
The Bank of England is to hold monetary policy meeting and announce its benchmark rate with minute release.
Canada is to publish data on new housing prices.
The U.S. is to report on consumer price inflations followed by weekly initial jobless claims.


Friday, April 15
China is to release data on industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and first quarter GDP growth.
The Reserve bank of Australia is to report on financial stability.
Eurozone is to publish data on trade balance.
The U.S. is to report on New York state manufacturing, industrial production, and consumer sentiment.


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader