Solforex.com - Weekly/Daily Forex Market Analysis

[limyeeshin]

Thursday 13 October 2016​

Yen slightly recovers after weak Chinese data

Japanese yen changed hands against the U.S. counterpart on Thursday after the release of downbeat Chinese trade balance. The yen traded a tad weaker in early Asia after the Federal minutes showed indications to increased likelihood of rate hike before the end of this year. In Japan, bank lending for September came in at 2.2% gain, better than expected rise of 2.0%. China’s trade balance for September showed a surplus of $41.99 billion, much lower than $53 billion expected. USD/JPY changed hands at 103.70, down 0.49%.

Dollar eases after the Fed minutes

The U.S. dollar continued to hover at seven-month highs against other major currencies overnight and slightly eased on Thursday. The dollar rose ahead of the Federal meeting minutes with increased speculations for a rate hike by December, pricing at 69.5%. The minute showed indicated a rate hike is highly possible by the December. Earlier, three members of the FOMC who dissented at the last meeting may soon have the needed support for a raise, and the minutes showed that members noting a reasonable case could be made on both sides of the argument. The dollar eased 0.16% against other major currencies to 97.63.

Aussie holds lower after the inflation data

The Australian dollar traded lower against the greenback Thursday after the release of inflation data. Earlier in Australia, MI inflation expectation rose to 3.7% from 3.3% previous figure. A rise in inflation expectation would comfort the central bank as its impact on wage and price-setting behavior. The price survey however has shown some volatility in recent months. AUD/USD fell 0.36% and traded at 0.7534.

Sterling eases further with ongoing concerns on Brexit

The British pound slightly eased after some gains supported by the British Prime Minister Theresa May was forced to give way to members of parliament for influence of Parliament over her Brexit plan. She was pushed to allow Tory MPs on Tuesday to vote for a Labour motion calling for better analysis of her Brexit proposals. The motions demands for MPs to scrutinize May’s negotiating position before she proceeds withdrawal talks with other EU members. Such motion suggest the weakness of the Prime Minister’s position in Parliament. The pound has been under selling pressure with grown concerns over a hard Brexit for Britain. The Times reported on Tuesday that the U.K. could lose up to £66 billion a year with a hard Brexit. GBP/USD traded at 1.2191, down 0.02%.

Major pairs (Thursday update)

USD/JPY	↓0.44%	103.75
EUR/USD	↑0.13%	1.1024
EUR/JPY	↓0.28%	114.4
USD/CAD	↑0.06%	1.3284
GBP/USD	↓0.11%	1.1022
USD/CHF	↓0.14%	0.9892
AUD/USD	↓0.38%	0.7532
NZD/USD	↓0.08%	0.7057

(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 74｜October 17, 2016​

The U.S. dollar gained against other major currencies on Friday after the upbeat U.S. retail sales and producer prices data, spurring speculations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate within this year. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% for September following 0.2% decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices broadly strengthened, indicating the economy is on a strong pace to withstand the next rate hike by the Fed within this year. The reports supported the FOMC minutes for September meeting which highlighted several officials showing hawkish positions for the next rate hike to be appropriate in short coming months if the economy continues to improve. The Federal Reserve raised interest rate for the first time in almost a decade in last December, but rates have been remained on hold due to concerns over sluggish inflations. It is widely expected that the rate hike is unlikely to be proceeded ahead of the presidential election in central bank’s next meeting in November. Investors are currently pricing 64% probability of a rate hike at the December meeting. The dollar gained 0.56% at 98.08 closing Friday, rising 1.4% for the week.

The British pound continued staying on the back food as investors continued to weigh on a ‘hard Brexit’ prospect. Sterling has been on a downward spiral with growing concerns that Britain would opt for a hard exit from the European Union. The currency has lost more than 17% against the U.S. counterpart so far this year. GBP/USD traded at 1.2186, down 0.55% for the day and down 2% for the week, following previous week’s 4% fall. Meanwhile, the euro weakened against the greenback with EUR/USD down 0.78% at 1.0971. Investors will be looking ahead to the European Central Bank’s post monetary policy meeting press conference on Thursday to indicate whether the bank will expand its stimulus measure in the wake of sluggish inflation.

Japanese yen held lower on Monday in Asia with remarks from the Bank of Japan Governor on economic growth and inflation. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Monday the economy is on a moderate expanding trend with core consumer prices slightly negative, adding that the central bank will take further action to support growth if necessary. USD/JPY changed hands on Monday at 104.23, up 0.07%. Meanwhile, AUD/USD traded at 0.7597, down 0.26% and NZD/USD traded at 0.7111, up 0.34%.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the European Central Bank’s press conference following the monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Market participants will also be looking ahead to China’s third quarter growth data, amid broad expectations that it will ease further.


Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.


Monday, October 17
Japan is to release data on manufacturing and industrial production.
Euro zone is to report on consumer price inflation.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.
The U.S. is to publish data on industrial production and New York state manufacturing.
Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer is to speak at an event in New York.

Tuesday, October 18
Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish minutes of its recent monetary policy meeting.
The RBA Governor Phillip Lowe is to speak in Sydney.
New Zealand is to release data on inflation.
The U.K. is to publish data on consumer prices and retail price inflation.
Canada is to report on manufacturing sales.
The U.S. is to publish data on consumer price inflation and housing market index.

Wednesday, October 19
China is to release data on industrial production, retail sales, and third quarter GDP growth.
Japan is to produce data on industrial activity.
The U.K. is to report on employment.
Euro zone is to publish data construction activity.
The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing start followed by the beige book announcement.

Thursday, October 20
Australia is to release its employment report as well as business confidence report.
Japan is to publish data on machinery orders.
Germany is to report on producer price inflation.
Euro zone is to release data on current account.
The ECB is to announce its benchmark rate and publish its rate statement followed by a press conference.
The U.K. is to produce data on retail sales.
The U.S. is to report on its weekly initial jobless claims and existing home sales.

Friday, October 21
China is to release its property market index.
Euro zone is to publish data on consumer sentiment.
The U.K. is to report on public sector borrowing.
Canada is to produce data on retail sales and inflation.


The above schedule may change*


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Thursday 20 October 2016​

Greenback holds steady overnight after mixed housing data

The U.S. dollar held firm against the other major currencies, remaining close to seven-month highs as investors were digesting the mixed U.S. housing data. The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that housing starts plunged by 9.0% to 1.047 million units, falling from 1.150 million units in August. Building permits rose 6.3% to 1.225 million units from 1.152 million units in the previous month, beating 0.9% gain forecasted by economists. Meanwhile, the final three U.S. presidential debates between Trump and Clinton showed ongoing sharp talks over taxes and foreign policy with one bitter exchanges over which candidate would deal better with Russian President Putin. While most recent polls favor Clinton, Trump also declined to assure he would accept the result of what he claimed was a rigged process rife with voting fraud. The dollar gained 0.01% at 97.88 against other major currencies. Major currencies showed limited reaction to the final debate, while Mexican peso edged higher by gaining 0.2% for the day.

Euro defensive before ECB

The euro hovered around a three-month low ahead of the European Central Bank meeting later on Thursday. The main focus from the ECB meeting is whether the ECB President Mario Draghi will give any indications for addressing its bond purchase program. From last week’s discussion, it is widely expected that the bank will not change the asset purchasing until December. An analyst commented that if Draghi highlights the need for further stimulus, the loss is likely to extend but if he positions optimistic and emphasizes resilience, the currency could be recoverable. EUR/USD eased 0.1% and traded at 1.0969, near Wednesdays’ three-month low of 1.0955.

Aussie weakens after jobs report

The Australian dollar weakened in Asia on Thursday after downbeat employment report, disappointing expectations by analysts. Employment change for September came in at a plunge of 9,800 jobs, compared to a gain of 15,000 jobs expected. It was the second consecutive monthly drop. The figures indicated that job gains are mainly from the part-time employment. The Australian economy has added 50,700 jobs so far this year, but it includes a 162,800 increase in part-time jobs, amid full time jobs are dropped by 112,100. Meanwhile, another report from NAB quarterly business confidence survey showed +5 for the third quarter, from +3 in previous quarter. NAB pointed out a recovering non-mining economy, however it also warned about recent downbeat trends in retail. AUD/USD traded at 0.7689, down 0.44% after the reports.

Major pairs (Thursday update)

USD/JPY	↑0.15%	103.62
EUR/USD	↓0.07%	1.0966
EUR/JPY	↑0.08%	113.63
USD/CAD	↑0.26%	1.3148
GBP/USD	↓0.08%	1.2280
USD/CHF	↑0.11%	0.9899
AUD/USD	↓0.67%	0.7671
NZD/USD	↓0.01%	0.7231

(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 75｜October 31, 2016

The U.S. dollar weakened against other major currencies amid heightened political uncertainty after the FBI revealed its investigation into private email use of Democratic presidential candidate Hilary Clinton. The dollar tumbled after the FBI’s new probe by rocking Clinton’s presidential campaign, slight more than a week ahead of the voting day on November 8. The market took the development as an advantage to the rival Republican Donald Trump, who has been trailing her polls. Still, there is no change in the market’s anticipation of the Federal Reserve to raise the rates in December. Big question for the market is the pace of the Fed’s rate hike next. The market would be reluctant to do much amid the political development is raising uncertainty. Earlier the week, the dollar had been boosted by a stronger than expected U.S. third quarter GDP at an annual rate of 2.9%, above 2.5% growth forecasted. The dollar edged down to 98.369, from Tuesday’s near nine-month high of 99.119.

Japanese yen held slightly stronger in Asia Monday after the release of upbeat industrial output data. Japan reported provisional industrial production for October as unchanged from September, but better than the 1.5% drop expected. Also, retail sales for September fell 1.9% on annual basis as broadly expected, following the 2.2% fall in August, seventh straight drop. USD/JPY changed hands at 104.72, down 0.01%.

Australian dollar held weaker on Monday after the housing credit and private sector credit reports. Australia reported housing credit for September rose 0.5%, unchanged from August, and private sector credit rose 0.5% monthly as expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia said that Investor housing credit is showing slower pace because of switch in mortgages from investor housing to owner-occupiers. Until now, AU$45 billion worth of mortgages has switched from the investor to the owner occupier sector. AU$1 billion worth of mortgage switching occurred in September. AUD/USD fell 0.13%, traded at 0.7591.

Elsewhere, the euro boosted 0.82% to 1.0985 against the greenback in late trade Friday, its largest one-day gain in nearly two months. The euro zone flash GDP estimate and inflation data are due later in the day. While the data may not significantly influence market perception on the euro zone’s economy, stronger output could fuel the speculations on the European Central Bank may scale down its bond buying measure next year. GBP/USD edged down 0.10%, at 1.1280. The Mexican peso, which is seen as the best barometer on the markets’ view on the U.S. presidential election, weakened 0.3% in early trade Asia at 19.025 against the dollar at near three week lows.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Federal Reserve’s policy statement on Wednesday for better indication on the pace of the next rate hike. Market participants will also closely watch central bank meetings in the U.K., Japan and Australia.


Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.


Monday, October 31
Japan is to release data on industrial production, housing starts and construction.
The euro zone is to publish preliminary reading on their quarter GDP growth and initial estimate on inflation.
The U.K. is to release data on net lending.
The U.S. is to report on personal income and expenditure as well as PMI reading in Chicago region.


Tuesday, November 1
China is to release official data on manufacturing and service sector, followed by the Caixin manufacturing index.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark rate and publish policy statement.
Bank of Japan is to announce its policy decisions and hold a press conference after the meeting.
The U.K. is to report on manufacturing.
Canada is to release monthly report on economic growth.
The U.S. is to release data on construction costs and ISM manufacturing index.


Wednesday, November 2
New Zealand is to release its quarterly employment report followed by data on inflation expectations.
Australia is to release data on building permits.
The U.K. is to publish ADP report on job creation.
In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is to announce its policy decisions and its benchmark interest rate.


Thursday, November 3
Financial markets in Japan are closed for a holiday.
China is to publish Caixin PMI on service sector.
Australia is to release its trade balance.
The U.K. is to produce data on service sector.
The Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate followed by the policy announcement and a press conference with Governor Mark Carney.
The euro zone is to release data on unemployment rate.
The U.S. is to release data on weekly initial jobless claims, nonfarm payrolls, factory orders and ISM manufacturing index.


Friday, November 4
Australia is to release data on retail sales.
Euro zone is to report on producer price inflation.
The U.S. is to report on trade balance as well as closely watched nonfarm payrolls report.



The above schedule may change*


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
20% Recovery Bonus (Volt-Mini Account only)
Instant 100% Credit Bonus (Up to $3,000)
2$ Cashback promotion per every trader
2.5% Annual Interest Event per every trader

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 76｜November 7, 2016​

The U.S. dollar slid against other major currencies on Friday despite a solid October employment data as investors remained cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Recent opinion polls have pointed to an increasing of uncertainty for the U.S. presidential elation, pressuring the greenback lower. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy has added 161,000 jobs in October for and average increase of 181,100 per month with unemployment rate ticking down to 4.9%. The Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said that the labor market has been strong this year despite a variety of negative shocks. The recovery continues to be powerful in terms of two main targets in terms of employment and close to full employment, indicating strength of dollar sentiment. The U.S. dollar slid 0.2% on Friday to 96.94 for the day, and fell 1.27% for the week against the basket of other major currencies.

Nearby, Mexico’s peso jumped on Sunday after the FBI stood by a previous decision to not to charge against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for emails related to her private server. On Sunday, FBI Director James Comey said in a letter to Congress the agency had not changed its conclusions from July that no criminal charges were warranted against the presidential contender. CME-listed peso futures boosted as electronic trading kicked off on Sunday evening more than 2%, the highest contract since Oct 25. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission published on Friday that the hedge funds and other speculators had ratcheted up bets against the peso for the first time in a month last week. With just two days ahead of November 8 election, Comey’s decision gave a major boost to Clinton. The peso that had been hit by the rise of Republican candidate Donald Trump and his polices, turned back and extended its gains to 18.584, by rising 2.25

Japanese yen weakened sharply on Monday in Asia trading as save haven flows reversed following the news of FBI standing for its earlier decision for no criminal charges warranted for Democrat Clinton. Meanwhile in Japan, the Bank of Japan’s September meeting minute showed several board members want to push to drag inflation expectations up in a sustainable way. Also, Japan reported that average wages for September rose 0.2% as expected which is a first rise in two months, but much lower than the increase in corporate profits. As investors weighed more to the news for the FBI’s decision ahead of the presidential election, the safe haven yen reversed and USD/JPY pair changed hands at 104.06, up 0.94%.

Elsewhere, AUD/USD eased 0.01% to 0.7674 after the release of downbeat construction data. Euro and sterling were higher against the dollar with EUR/USD trading at 1.1139, up 0.32% and GBP/USD gained 2.74% for the week. In the U.K., the High Court ruled Thursday that Prime Minister Theresa May must have parliament’s approval to trigger the Brexit process in Brussels. The ruling raised the uncertainty on the government’s pace for launching Brexit talks and surged the sterling.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election. China’s trade and inflation data will also be closely watched for better indication over the strength of world’s second largest economy.


Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.


Monday, November 7
Bank of Japan is to release its September’s meeting minutes.
Germany is to release data on factory orders.
Euro zone is to report on retail sales.
The U.K. is to publish data on house price inflation.

Tuesday, November 8
China is to publish data on trade balance.
Australia is to release data on business sentiment.
Germany is to report on industrial production and release the trade balance.
The U.K. is to produce data on manufacturing activity and industrial production.
The U.S. is to release data on LMCI’s employment report.
In the U.S., voting in the presidential election will take place.

Wednesday, November 9
China is to release data on consumer and producer price inflation.
Japan is to publish data on current account.
The European Commissions is to publish the two-year economic forecasts for the euro zone.
The U.S. is to produce data on mortgage applications and wholesale inventory.

Thursday, November 10
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a monetary policy statement.
Japan is to publish data on core machinery orders.
Australia is to report on housing loans.
The U.S. is to release data on weekly initial jobless claims.
Canada is to produce data on house price inflation.

Friday, November 11
Japan is to publish data on producer price inflation.
The U.S. is to release data from the University of Michigan for consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


The above schedule may change*

(Mia Chung)

We offered White Label service. Kindly contact us at [email protected] or [email protected]

 

[limyeeshin]

Thursday 10 November 2016​

Dollar strengthens back after sharp drop post-election

The U.S. dollar rebounded against other major currencies as it continued to recover from sharp losses posted following news that Republican Donald Trump had been elected for the President for the United States. The greenback initially plunged after Trump was declared as 45th U.S. President, baffling broad expectations for a Democratic victory. A Trump victory is seen as negative for financial markets perspective as his policies leads to uncertainty for the U.S. economy. The dollar recovered 0.55% at 98.41 after a sharp drop to 95.91 overnight. Nearby Mexican peso pared its earlier steep loss but sill on its downside with MXN/USD falling to 8.24% at 0.0050.

Yen holds weaker in Asia after mixed data

Japanese yen held weaker in Asia on Thursday after the release of machinery orders showing up and downs. In Japan, core machinery orders for September declined 3.3% monthly basis compared to 0.8% drop expected. The monthly drop followed by a decline in the previous month, giving second straight monthly decline. But it gained 4.3% year-on-year basis, above 3.5% rise seen. Earlier in japan, The Finance Minister Taro Aso had said that Tokyo will need to respond to moves in the currency markets if the U.S. election results cause a sudden spike in the yen, reiterating its readiness to intervene in the currency markets. USD/JPY changed hands at 105.75, up 0.08%.

Euro retreats after post U.S. presidential election

The euro retreated against the U.S. counterpart after the news Donald Trump had been elected for the President of the United States. Earlier, the European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said the ECB is ready to intervene in markets in an emergency. EUR/USD slid 0.83% to 1.9035, off from its two-month peak of 1.1300 overnight. GBP/USD gained 0.32% to 1.2424, off from its one-month peak of 101.19.

Commodity currencies recovers from sharp losses

The New Zealand dollar posted gains despite a rate cut in the benchmark interest rate by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The RBNZ cut the official cash rate by 25b.p to 1.75% on Thursday as broadly expected and also signaled a very mild easing bias while acknowledging numerous uncertainties may require action. NZD/USD traded at 0.7299, up 0.29%. In Australia, housing data for home loans came in at an increase of 1.6% for September, compared to 2.0% drop seen. Also investor housing finance gained 4.6%. AUD/USD rose by 0.34% at 0.7662. Both currencies tumbled sharply after the victory of Trump for the U.S. presidential election and recovered overnight. Canadian dollar also slightly recovered from its steep loss to 1.3452.

Major pairs (Thursday update)

USD/JPY	↓0.28%	105.37
EUR/USD	↑0.16%	1.0928
EUR/JPY	↓0.10%	115.16
USD/CAD	↓0.01%	1.3422
GBP/USD	↑0.02%	1.2409
USD/CHF	↓0.12%	0.9834
AUD/USD	↑0.42%	0.7668
NZD/USD	↓0.33%	0.7253

(Mia Chung)

We offered White Label service. Kindly contact us at [email protected] or [email protected]

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 77｜November 14, 2016​

The U.S. dollar hit its nine-month high against other major currencies, supported by climbing U.S. yields and speculations that the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will boost growth and inflation. The investors found hopes that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under Trump administration will spur a lift in Treasury yields supported by boosted economic growth and inflation. Expectations also boosted that rate hike will keep on path amid increased optimism over growth that allows the Federal Reserve to tighten borrowing costs. Investors raised the chance of rate hike by December by pricing 81.1% probability by Fed Funds Futures Monitor Tool. The dollar rose to 99.68 before settling at 99.5 against basket of other major currencies. The currency gained 2.2% for the week.

Nearby in Mexico, the peso slightly recovered on Monday as Trump appeared to soften some of his incendiary campaign pledges that were seen to impact on Mexican economy. The peso has been world’s worst-performing currency this year, falling to record lows after Trump’s winning last week giving fears that he may lower trades and build a wall between two countries, while deporting millions of illegal immigrants in the United States. On Sunday, Trump backed away from his pledge on a border wall, saying some areas could instead use ‘fencing’ and lowered deporting immigrants numbers down to up to 3 million people who has criminal records. The peso rose over 1% on Monday around 20.64 per dollar in Asian trading on Monday.

Japanese yen held lower against the U.S. dollar despite the release of upbeat economic growth for the third quarter, as investors sought a renewed bull phase following Trump’s winning. In Japan, the third quarter GDP came in at 0.5% quarterly increase and 2.2% rise yearly, beating 0.2% and 0.9% gains respectively. On Monday, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda urged companies to hike wages in line with the bank’s 2% inflation target, adding comments that fiscal and monetary measures will remain keys to boost the economy. Trump’s victory has lifted the cloud of risk aversion in equity markets, giving dollar to climb higher against the safe-haven yen.

Elsewhere, the euro hit its lowest level since March against the dollar, with EUR/USD trading at 1.0854. Sterling advanced against the dollar and euro with increased hopes that Britain and the U.S. will continue to remain close despite unexpected political upheaval in both countries. GBP/USD traded at 1.2592, rising 0.85% for the week. EUR/GBP fell to 0.8627, down 2.89% for the week. New Zealand dollar fell lower after a strong earthquake and related aftershocks hit New Zealand, leaving 2 casualties with damaged buildings. NZD/USD fell 0.39% at 0.7086. Aussie also held lower at 0.7541, down 0.04%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday for better indications whether the back will raise the interest rate next month. The inflation data from the U.S. and the U.K. will also be closely watched.


Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.


Monday, November 14
Japan is to release preliminary reading on third quarter GDP.
China is to publish data on industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment.
Euro zone is to produce data on industrial production.
European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Rome.


Tuesday, November 15
New Zealand is to release data on retail sales.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting.
Euro zone is to report on trade balance and economic growth for the third quarter.
In Germany, ZEW institute is to report on economic sentiment.
The U.K. is to release data on consumer and retail price inflation.
The Bank of England governor Mark Carney is to testify on inflation and economic outlook to the Treasury Committee.
The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, import prices and New York state manufacturing activity.


Wednesday, November 16
The U.K. is to report on employment.
Canada is to release data on manufacturing sales.
The U.S. is to publish data on producer price inflation, industrial production and NAHB’s housing market index.


Thursday, November 17
Australia is to publish its employment report.
The U.K. is to release data on retail sales.
Euro zone is to publish data on construction production and consumer prices inflation.
The U.S. is to produce string of data on building permits, new starts, consumer price inflation and its weekly initial jobless claims.
The Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to testify on the economic outlook at the Joint Economic Committee.


Friday, November 18
China is to publish data on property prices.
Euro zone is to release data on current account.
European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.
Canada is to release data on consumer price inflation.


The above schedule may change*



(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
We offered White Label service. Kindly contact us at [email protected] or [email protected]

 

[limyeeshin]

Friday 18 November 2016​

Dollar hovers at 14-year peak on U.S. optimism

The U.S. dollar edged up and hovered close to its 14-year peak against the other major currencies on Thursday after the release of upbeat data, amid ongoing optimism over the strength of economy. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims decreased by 19,000 to 235,000 which is the lowest level since 1973, crushing expectations to rise by 3,00 to 257,000. A separate report from the Commerce Department said housing starts boosted 25% in October to 1.323 million units. Building permits also rose by 0.3% to 1.229 million units. Consumer prices also came in at a 0.4% rise in October, 1.6% increase year-on-year, hitting highest level since 2014. The strong data added optimism to the U.S. economy and bolstered expectations for a December rate hike. Earlier of the week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned about the danger of waiting too long to tighten monetary policy, amid some other states Fed presidents showed favor of raising interest rates. The dollar was measured at 100.55, just off a fresh 14 year peak of 100.62 hit earlier session.

Commodity linked currencies remains under pressure

Canadian dollar found some support as oil prices rose higher on Thursday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih showed optimism over OPEC would formalize the oil output deal. USD/CAD pair hit 1.3412 in early trades, and eased off to 1.3400, down 0.27%. Meanwhile, Australian dollar edged down after the release of downbeat employment data. The number employed people rose by 9,800 in October, disappointing 20,000 gain seen. Also September’s number of employment was revised down to 29,000 drop, further from previous estimation drop of 9,800. AUD/USD weakened 0.12% to 0.7470, near its two-month lows of 0.7455. New Zealand dollar rose but limited as demand for the greenback remained widely with growing expectations for the Fed’s December rate hike. NZD/USD rose 0.23% to 0.7086.

Sterling holds steady, upbeat retails

The British pound held steady after the release of better-than-expected retail data. The U.K. Office for National Statistics said the retail sales increased by 1.9%in October, beating 0.4% rise seen by analysts. The retail sales increased by 7.4% year-on-year, further than 5.3% rise expected. Core retail sales excluding automobile and fuel, gained 2.0% in October, above 0.4% rise seen. Elsewhere, the euro slightly eased off Thursday from its 11-month trough against the dollar in earlier trade. EUR/USD rose 0.13% at 1.0704, amid USD/CHF traded at 1.0024.

Major pairs (latest update)

USD/JPY	↑0.05%	110.18
EUR/USD	↓0.12%	1.0611
EUR/JPY	↓0.09%	116.90
USD/CAD	↑0.17%	1.3544
GBP/USD	↓0.10%	1.2407
USD/CHF	↑0.14%	1.0084
AUD/USD	↓0.23%	0.7390
NZD/USD	↓0.07%	0.7021
USD/CNH	↓0.00%	6.9043

(*as at GMT +13 13:00)


(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION
We offered White Label service. Kindly contact us at [email protected] or [email protected]

 

[limyeeshin]

Edition 78｜November 21, 2016​

The U.S. dollar hit its highest level since 2003 against the other major currencies on Friday amid ongoing rally driven by the U.S. presidential election and increased expectation on rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The greenback has been rising up to 3.0% this month following the outcome of the presidential election, as well as rising in U.S. Treasury yields. Investors continued to bet that new administration of President-elect Donald Trump would embark on expansion of fiscal policies and boost growth. Analysts said the market is buying the dollar and selling U.S. Treasuries which seems to continue for a while until we get the details of ‘Trumponomics’. The yield on U.S. benchmark 10 year Treasury notes rose to a one year high of 2.364% on Friday. Most market participants expect the Federal Reserve would raise the interest rates at its December meeting. Also expectations have been grown that a Trump presidency will boost growth and lead to faster rate hikes which supported the dollar to jump to 13.5 year highs against other major currencies. The dollar was weighted at 101.41 late Friday, with its highest close since 2003.

Safe haven yen plunged to its five months lows as well as the traditional safe haven Swiss franc fell to its nine-month lows against the greenback, amid ongoing strong rally on the U.S. dollar boosted by widened expectation on Fed’s rate hike in next month. USD/JPY pair rose 0.71% at 110.89 in late trade and USD/CHF hit 1.0122 before settling at 1.0099 late Friday. The euro and sterling also retreated against the U.S. counterpart with rally in greenback. EUR/USD traded at 1.0588 falling to its 11-month lows and GBP/USD fell 0.61% to its two weeks low at 1.2344.

In the week ahead, amid ongoing trend on the U.S. dollar’s strong rally, the trade volumes are expected to remain light around Thursday’s Thanksgiving and Friday’s early closing. The release of U.S. data on jobs and durable goods would be closely watched to track the strength of the economy. In the euro zone, business activity report will be closely watched to get fresh indications on the health of the euro zone’s economy.


Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.


Monday, November 21
Japan is to release data on trade balance and industrial activity.
Canada is to publish data on wholesale sales.
The U.S. is to report on manufacturing in Chicago region.

Tuesday, November 22
New Zealand is to publish data on retail sales.
Euro zone is to release data on consumer sentiment.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to testify on the bank’s annual report at the European Parliament.
The U.K. is to report on borrowing.
The U.S. is to release data on existing home sales and manufacturing in Richmond region.

Wednesday, November 23
Financial markets in Japan will be closed for a national holiday.
New Zealand is to report on producer price inflation.
The U.K. Chancellor Philip Hammond will present the autumn budget statement to parliament.
The euro zone is to publish survey data on private sector activity.
The U.S. is to release bundle of data on durable goods orders, new home sales, consumer sentiment, manufacturing and its weekly initial jobless claims.
The Federal Reserve is to publish the November policy meeting minutes.

Thursday, November 24
Financial markets in the U.S. are to be closed for the Thanksgiving Day.
In Germany, IFO Institute is to report on business climate.

Friday, November 25
Japan is to release data on consumer price inflation.
The U.K. is to publish revised third quarter GDP growth.
The U.S. is to report on wholesale and retail inventories, and service activity.

The above schedule may change*

(Mia Chung)
COMPANY PROMOTION

We offered White Label service. Kindly contact us at [email protected] or [email protected]