Solforex.com - Weekly/Daily Forex Market Analysis

[limyeeshin]

Edition 23｜September 28, 2015​

The U.S. dollar shortened its losses after the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen implied that interest rates may still rise later this year and the central bank remains on track to hike rate. The hawkish statements reassured investors that the monetary policy has not significantly altered for the rate hike decisions after the delay. Also, the U.S. second quarter GDP was revised higher in later data, kept the dollar bullish. The dollar rose 0.27% and 0.33% against the euro.

The euro went bullish after ECB’s targeted longer-term refinancing operations had lowered bid at €15.5billion euro which is far below the previous €73.8billion and €50.3billion expected. It may imply that the economy is improving as banks are not really active to the debt program (TLTROs) thus pushed the euro higher. However, after the Fed Chair Yellen’s statements the euro went lower to its U.S. counterparts. EUR/USD traded at 1.1194 in late trade, falling 0.33% for the day. Investors will be attentive to Eurozone inflation report on Wednesday that could impact ECB’s decision for monetary stimulus program.

Japanese yen was slightly weak in early Asia on Monday ahead of central banks remarks in Japan and the U.S. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at a business leaders event in Osaka today. USD/JPY pair rose 0.07%, traded at 120.58.

Emerging and commodity currencies rose generally however some fell due to the rate cuts. The Rand, NZD, AUD, the ruble generally went higher but Australian dollar fell to its U.S. counterpart traded at 0.7014, down 0.17% on Monday. The British pound was also low, with GBP/USD falling 0.4% to 1.5178 in late trade.

Brazilian real fell steep after Brazil central bank governor stated that he will use all possible policies to reduce the foreign exchange market fluctuation, fell 4.93%. Norway Crone also fell after the rate cut.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 28
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda is to give a speech in Osaka.
The U.S. is to release data on personal income and spendings.
Also, New York Fed president William Dudley is to speak followed by Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, at separate events.
The pending home sales report is to be published in the U.S.

Tuesday, September 29
Japan is to release data on home spending.
Germany is to release consumer price inflation.
The U.K. is to release report on net private lending.
Canada is to release data on raw material price index.
The U.S. is to report on the trade balance and consumer sentiments.
The S&P’s Case-Shiller Home price indices is to be released in the U.S.

Wednesday, September 30
Japan is to release data on retail sales.
New Zealand is to report on business confidence.
Australia is to release figures on building approvals.
In the Eurozone, consumer price inflation is to be released and investors will be attentive to this as to forecast the ECB’s further decision on monetary stimulus program.
Germany is to release data on movements in employment.
In the U.S., Chicago state producer manufacturing inflation is to be released followed by ADP employment reports.
Fed Chair Yellen is to speak at an event later the day.

Thursday, October 1
Japan is to publish Tanken index reading.
China market is closed due to its national holiday but there will be released reports on manufacturing and service sector activity from China.
Data from China are Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Caixin services index as well as the Caixin manufacturing revised data.
The U.K is to release manufacturing index.
In the U.S., initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity report is to be released from the ISM.

Friday, October 2
China market is remained closed due to its national holiday.
Australia is to release data on retail sales.
The U.K is to publish data on construction index.
In the U.S, the weekly nonfarm payrolls and data on factory orders will be released.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

Thursday October 1, 2015​

U.S. dollar stays bullish with firm employment data
The U.S. dollar stayed broadly higher to other major currencies after strong U.S. employment data. The ADP nonfarm private employment increased to 200,000, above 194,000 rise expected. The dollar was pushed further against the euro after the slowed data of consumer price inflation this month in the Eurozone. However, it was limited increase against Japanese yen after IMF Chair Lagarde showed concerns toward global economy slowdown, turn the dollar low with safe asset preference inflow. But the turned higher again after eased preference toward safe asset in afternoon trade with increased U.S. stock market, but the strengthening gap was limited. USD/JPY traded at 119.94 in latest trade, up 0.05%

Euro falls sharply after disappointing consumer price index
The euro fell sharply against the dollar after the consumer price inflation showed disappointing figure at -0.1%, below the 0.0% expected and 0.1% previous month. It increased the possibility of extending comprehensive asset purchasing program. The ECB President Draghi said the consumer price index is problematic and additional quantitative easing may be necessary at the conference after the policy meeting. Moreover, Goldman Sachs expressed the necessity of QE extension by ECB with increasing concerns on deflation. The euro fell further against the dollar with U.S. strong labor data later the day. EUR/USD traded at 1.1177, down 0.64%

Aussie rebounds with hope of manufacturing fortunes in China
The Australian dollar rebounded in Asia on Thursday after bunch of data confirming slowdown in China but with some potential for rebounding in manufacturing. The CFLP manufacturing PMI in China improved slightly to 49.8 in September, above 49.6 expected. Also the Caixin manufacturing PMI came in as 47.2 as expected, Services index was at 50.5 below 51.5 in August. The figures show further slowdown and unstable markets making many manufactures cautious with harder capture of outlook. In Australia however, the AI group manufacturing index rose to 52.1 the third straight monthly gain. AUD/USD traded at 0.7042, up 0.31%.

Market Movements
Overall, the U.S. dollar rose 0.42%, the euro fell 0.61%, the yen fell 0.11% and the pound fell 0.15%. The emerging currencies showed bullish movements despite the IMF Chair’s statement with concerns toward economy slowdown. South African rand gained 0.86%, Russian ruble 0.42%, Mexican peso 0.68%, Brazilian real 2.48%, Chinese yuan 0.10% and Turkish Lira gained 0.37%. The commodity related currencies were generally high too, New Zealand dollar rose by 0.76%, Canadian dollar rose 0.54% and Australian dollar gained 0.49%.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

Edition 24｜October 5, 2015​

The U.S. dollar turned broadly lower after weak the labor reports on Friday. The Labor Department reported there were 142,000 jobs added below the 203,000 expected. Also the participation rate fell to 62.4% from 62.26% in August. The U.S. ISM manufacturing data was also weak at 50.2 brought concern to economy slowdown. However, the state Fed presidents implied the rate hike is likely to be executed within this year, limited the dollar’s loss.

Beginning of last week, the euro and yen were bullish after slowed Chinese manufacturing data which increased concerns toward emerging countries’ economy. Also, the German Minister of Economy has stated that German economy can bear the Volkswagen crisis, let the euro bullish. But the consumer price index was lowered at- 0.1% during the week brought concerns toward deflation, shortened its gain.

Japanese yen was slightly weaker in early trade on Monday with weaker than expected wages data. Average cash earnings for August rose 0.5% which is a second straight rise, but it was lower than the expected gain of 0.7%. JPY/USD fell 0.07%, traded at 119.98.

The TD-MI September inflation gauge in Australia rose 0.3%. TD Securities Asia-Pacific macro strategist Beacher said the tradable and domestic inflation gauges are converging toward an annual rate of 2% phenomena. RBA has already anticipated whereby the weaker Australian dollar may be boosting imported priced but benign domestic inflation provides an offset. AUD/USD traded at 0.7071 on Monday, up 0.33%.

Overall, the dollar fell 0.46%, the euro gained 0.13% and the yen gained 0.55%. GBP/USD gained 0.35% to 1.5185 and USD/CHF lost 0.59% at 97.15. In the week ahead, investors will be attentive to Fed’s September minutes on Wednesday for the rate hike decision statements. There will be central bank meetings in Japan, Australia and the U.K which will be also closely watched.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 5
Markets in China is remained closed for national holiday.
Australia markets are closed.
The U.K. is to publish data on service sector activity.
In the Eurozone, PMI report on service sectors are to be released followed by retail sales data.
In the U.S., the ISM is to report on non-manufacturing sector and LMCI labor market report is to be released.

Tuesday, October 6
Markets in China are remained closed for national holiday.
New Zealand is to release private sector data on its business confidence.
Australia is to release data on trade balance and the Reserve Bank of Australia is to hold monetary policy meeting and announce its benchmark rate and rate statement.
Germany is to release data on factory orders.
In the Eurozone, there will be Eurogroup finance meeting and the retail PMI is to be released.
Canada and U.S. is to release trade balance.
ECB minister Mario Draghi is to speak later the day.

Wednesday, October 7
Markets in China are remained closed for national holiday.
Bank of Japan is to hold monetary policy meeting and is to announce its benchmark rate and publish rate statements.
The U.K. is to release data on industrial and manufacturing production.
Canada is to release figures on building permits.
The U.S. is to release data on consumer sentiments.

Thursday, October 8
Japan is to release data on core machinery orders and current account.
Bank of Japan is to publish the monthly report.
Germany is to release trade balance.
In the U.K, the Bank of England is to hold monetary policy meeting and announce its benchmark rate and publish its rate statement.
In the U.S., the initial jobless claims and Fed meeting minutes are to be released.
Later the day, BOE governor Mark Carney is to speak and San Francisco fed President John Williams to make some statements.
OECD composite leading indicator is to be published.

Friday, October 9
Australia is to release data on new home loans.
U.K. is to publish trade balance.
Canada is to release data on employment movement and unemployment rate.
The U.S. is to report on import prices.
IMF meeting is to start this day until the 11th.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

Thursday October 8 2015 ​

USD/EUR changes hands after Federal Reserve minutes
The U.S. dollar was broadly higher ahead of Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Thursday. Especially the euro falling due to German’s industrial production deteriorated, increased the possibility to extend quantitative easing. Also, the stabilizing in commodity market eased the concerns toward emerging countries’ economy, pushed the dollar higher against the euro but the gain was limited due to increased expectation of delay in hiking interest rate.
After Federal Reserve released the minutes, EUR/USD changed hands, closed slightly higher with choppy trades in end of Thursday’s session. Federal Open Market Committee’s September supported to delay rate hike beyond the end of this year. The pair traded as high of 1.1326 and consolidated at 1.1275, up 0.33% on the session.

GBP trimmed down after Bank of England holds
The British pound was high after the industrial production data showed +1.0% increase, above the +0.3% expected and its previous month’s fall of -0.3%. The pound trimmed its gains against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after Bank of England decided to hold its monetary policy as current. The BoE said it was holding the benchmark rate at 0.50% as broadly expected, the rate’s been held at the level since 2009. Minutes showed that the Committee voted 8-1 to keep rates on hold, with one member voting in favor of hike to 0.75%. GBP/USD pulled back from the pair’s highest of 1.5372 to 1.5324, trimmed to 0.03% of gain in the European afternoon trade. Sterling was lower against the euro with EUR/GBP traded at 0.7369, up 0.46%

NZD slips but remains close distance to a 6-week peak
The New Zealand dollar slipped lower against the U.S. counterpart on Thursday, but it remained very close to the pair’s six week highs as greenback remained fragile with declining expectation for rate hike within this year. NZD/USD hit low of 0.6586 in late Asian trade, settled at 0.6596, down 0.21%. The pair’s six week peak was on Wednesday at 0.6649. The Kiwi was although higher against the Australian dollar, AUD/NZD fell 0.14%, traded at 1.0886.

Yen fell after the central bank meeting
USD/YEN fell after Bank of Japan released its monetary policy meeting in the middle of the week. The bank decided to hold its benchmark rate and some of members showed concerns toward asset buying, stating it should reduce down to 45 trillion yen, attenuated expectations for asset buying expansion. Thus the pair fell but limited its loss due to easement of emerging economies by increase in commodity prices.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

Edition 25｜October 12, 2015​

Last week, the U.S. dollar was weakened against other major currencies with increased possibility of delay in rate hike by Federal Reserve. Beginning of the week, the dollar was high with expectations for easement in the economy by Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiation. Also, the oil price rebounded and has mitigated the concerns for emerging countries’ economy slowdown, strengthened emerging market currencies despite the dollar being bullish.

Later the week, the U.S. trade balance was worsened and state fed presidents gave dovish statements that increased the possibility for the Federal Reserve to delay hiking rate, turned the dollar bearish. The FOMC meeting minutes also reconfirmed that rate hike is not going to be easy in consideration of emerging market slowdown.

Commodity related currencies were generally high, the Australian dollar railed to its seven-week highs, jumping 1.18% to its U.S. counterpart traded at 0.7343 but it fell lower in early trading today with no major data due. AUD/USD traded at 0.7319, down 0.32%. New Zealand dollar rose to 10-week peaks against the U.S. dollar, with NZD/USD gaining 0.4% to 0.6693. Canadian dollar also went higher to its 10 week highs, with USD/CAD falling 0.52% to 1.2947.

Japanese yen was slightly higher after the monetary policy meeting last week with lowered expectation for the additional asset buying program. However, it turned bearish after rebound of oil and non-ferrous metal prices, lowering preferences toward safe asset. The pair changed hands with USD/YEN gaining 0.30%. Yen slightly fell further today while the Japan market is shut for the national holiday. USD/JPY pair traded at 120.25, up 0.03%.

In the week ahead, market participants will be looking ahead to the U.S. data on retail sales and consumer prices for fresh for determination of market improvement which will influence rate hike decision by Federal Reserve. Also, jobs report in the U.K. and Australia will be closely watched.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 12
Markets in Japan, Canada and The U.S. are closed for national holiday.
In the U.S., Chicago state Fed president Charles Evans is to speak. Investors will be attentive to his speech as he is preparing to speak about monetary policy. Many investors expect that he will give dovish statements.
OPEC monthly report is to be released.

Tuesday, October 13
In Australia, RBA vice governor Lowe is to speak.
New Zealand is to release food prices index.
Japan is to publish minutes on recent monetary policy meeting and release data on consumer sentiment and core machinery orders.
In the Eurozone, Germany is to release data on consumer and wholesale prices followed by Zew institute’s report on the business climate.
The U.K. is to release data on consumer, producer and retail prices inflation.

Wednesday, October 14
In Australia, Westpac bank is to publish data on consumer sentiments.
Japan is to release data on producer prices inflation.
China is to release consumer and producer prices index.
In the U.K., employment data is to be released including average wages, movements in employment and unemployment rate.
In the Eurozone, data on industrial production is to be published.
The U.S. is to release data on producer prices, retail sales. Also, the beige book is to be published later of the day.

Thursday, October 15
Australia is to release data on employment including movements in labor and unemployment rate.
Japan is to produce data on industrial production.
IN the U.S., data on consumer price inflation and initial jobless claims are to be released. Later the day, New York state Fed president William Dudley is to speak.

Friday, October 16
In New Zealand, data on consumer price inflation is to be released.
In the Eurozone, data on consumer price inflation and trade balance are to be released.
Canada is to publish data on manufacturing sales.
The U.S. is to round up the week with data on industrial production, JOLTs and consumer expectation index.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

There will be 4 major data out tonight at 8:30 p.m (GMT +8).

1. Monthly Core Retail Sales
Last month: +0.1%
Expected: -0.1%
This month: ?
Direction: Sell EUR/USD if Actual > Expected, Buy otherwise.

2. Monthly PPI
Last month: 0.0%
Expected: -0.2%
This month: ?
Direction: Sell EUR/USD if Actual > Expected, Buy otherwise.

3. Monthly Retail Sales
Last month: +0.2%
Expected: +0.2%
This month: ?
Direction: Sell EUR/USD if Actual > Expected, Buy otherwise.

4. Monthly Core PPI
Last month: +0.3%
Expected: +0.1%
This month: ?
Direction: Sell EUR/USD if Actual > Expected, Buy otherwise.

Please trade carefully and use small leverage. Solforex only provide suggestion on trading strategy but do not hold responsibility if trader suffered loss.
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[limyeeshin]

Thursday October 15 2015 ​

The U.S. dollar stays broadly lower
The dollar dropped against other major currencies after slowed data with increased possibility of rate hike delay. In early trading, the producer price inflation was reduced to -0.3%, lower than +0.1% expected and +0.3% in previous month. The shrinkage in producer prices in the U.S. and the recent Chinese producer prices fall at -5.9% brought up concerns toward global deflation. The beige book also mentioned that the manufacturing sector is slowing down despite steady improvement of other sectors in the economy. Thus, interest rate hike became more likely to be delayed and further lowered the dollar.

EUR/USD surges amid slowed retail sales data
In the Eurozone, the industrial production was decreased to -0.5%, below previous month’s data at +0.8% and -0.4% expected. It shortened the euro gaining at some stage but downbeat prices index in the U.S. and China spurred the concerns toward global deflation which increased the possibility for Federal Reserve to delay rate hike decision. Thus, it brought more gains to the euro and later shortened its gains by Richmond Fed president’s statement with optimistic view toward rate hike. The euro gained against greenback 0.83% in late session traded at 1.1469 and overall gained about 1.20% over the last month of trading.

British pound goes higher against greenback amid vague employment data
GBP/USD gained after slightly improved labor data and the dollar index falling. The unemployment rate in the U.K. was lowered from 5.5% to 5.4%. However, the initial jobless claims were increased that it could not be interpreted as it was well improved. GBP/USD pair gained 1.5% in the late session.

Aussie gains despite weaker than expected jobs data
The Australian dollar gained on Thursday despite weaker jobs data. The investors seemed to focus more on drop rate in unemployment. The data showed that job slots fell by 5,100 in September, worse than expected gains of 5,000. But the unemployment rate was improved at 6.2%, better than 6.3% expected. AUD/USD traded at 0.7324, gained 0.34% on Thursday early trading.

Market movements
The emerging market and commodity market currencies generally gained amid increased possibility of rate hike delay by Federal Reserve. South African rand gained 2.46%, New Zealand dollar gained 2.13%, Brazilian real was up 1.96%, Turkish lira went up 1.52% and the Australian dollar gained 0.84%. Overall the dollar was broadly lower, EUR/USD pair gained 0.83%, USD/YEN fell 0.77% and GBP/USD gained 1.50%.

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[limyeeshin]

Edition 26｜October 19, 2015​

Last week, the U.S. dollar had continued fluctuation amid concerns toward rate hike delay and closed the week with shortened loss. Beginning of the week, dovish statements by state Fed presidents increased the possibility to postpone raising initial interest rate. Federal Reserve vice Chair Stanley also mentioned that rate increase is not more than expectation without a promise, which further weakened the dollar. Later the week, the dollar gained broadly on Friday with bounced expectation that Federal Reserve may still raise rates this year after solid inflation data on Thursday. The dollar rose 0.33% for the day but still closed the week with 0.31% of weekly fall.

Japanese yen showed bullish movements amid the dollar continued up and downs leading preferences toward safe assets due to rising concerns toward rate hike delay. The dollar was higher on Friday with USD/JPY rising 0.46% to 119.43 rebounding from Thursday’s fall but still ended the week down 0.69%.

The euro was broadly higher with expectations that European Central Bank could expand its quantitative easing program. Trade balance in China showed sharp fall in import together with decline in producer price by -5.9%, brought up concerns toward emerging market slowdown and further increased the euro. Data on Friday confirmed that the inflation rate in the Eurozone turned negative in September for the first time since ECB started asset purchasing program in March. EUR/USD traded at 1.1347 in late trade, retreated 0.35% and shortened its loss by closing the week down 0.18%.

The Australian dollar was flat on Monday in early Asia trading amid investors awaiting the latest China’s economic growth data. The industrial output is expected to show 6.0% gain year-on-year in September, while retail sales are expected to gain 10.8%. The data will be closely watched as fears for China-led global economy slowdown is increasing and it could impact on rate hike determination to take longer. AUD/USD traded at 0.7265, slightly down by 0.01% today.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, October 19
China is to release data on its GDP growth, industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales.
In the U.S., housing market index is to be released followed by statements from FOMC Governor Lael Brainard.
Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker is to speak later the day.
Canada is having national election today.

Tuesday, October 20
In Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish its recent monetary policy meeting minutes.
Germany is to release data on producer price inflation.
In the Eurozone, data on current account will be published.
In The U.K., Bank of England governor Mark Canery is to speak before the Treasury Committee in London.
Canada is to produce wholesale sales data.
The U.S. is to release data on housing starts and building permits.
Later the day, NY state Fed President William Dudley, FOMC Governor Jerome Powell and FOMC Chair Janet Yellen are to speak at an even in New York.

Wednesday, October 21
Australia is to release CB composite leading index.
Japan is to release data on its trade balance
Canada is to release its recent monetary policy meeting minutes and announce its benchmark rate.

Thursday, October 22
In Australia, RBA Governor Edey is to speak.
The U.K. is to publish data on retail sales.
In the Eurozone, ECB is to take monetary policy meeting. Investors will be looking into whether ECB is to scale up its QE program.
Canada is to release data on retail sales.
In the U.S., data on initial jobless claims, housing price index, existing home sales and current account are to be published.

Friday, October 23
China is to publish data on housing price and composite leading indicator.
In the Eurozone, data on PMI manufacturing and service are to be published.
Canada is to release data on consumer price inflation.
The U.S. is to release data on PMI manufacturing sector.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

Thursday October 22 2015 ​

Dollar rises slightly after china markets fell
The U.S. dollar turned slightly higher against other major currencies after the China stock prices showed a steep decline. Steep depreciation of Chinese stocks increased concerns toward China-led emerging market slowdown. The steady data on U.S. housing sector supported the dollar’s gains. Especially, it gained more to the emerging markets and commodity related currencies. Greenback and the euro showed consistent up and downs, being almost flat with a slight upward tendency ahead of ECB monetary policy meeting. EUR/USD fell -0.07% in the late trade, settled trading at 1.1345.

Pound falls after BoE governor’s statements
The British pound fell after the Bank of England governor Mark Carney gave speech at a university event about The European Union, monetary and financial stability, and the Bank of England. He specified the role of the central bank, adding that a large adjustment of the UK’s real exchange rate could impact on reflection of the severe headwinds to domestic growth from deleveraging by UK households. Carney’s speech was construed as burdens for rate hike in near future, lowered the pound. GBP/USD fell 0.16%, traded at 1.5444.

The Aussie rebounds on Thursday after NAB survey
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were weaker on Wednesday declining from China-led concerns for shortening in commodity prices and flow. AUD/USD traded at 0.7209, declining 0.69% and NZD/USD fell 0.41% to 0.6723. But the Aussie rebounded in Asia early Thursday, despite NAB’s business confidence survey showing downslope. The quarterly survey fell to flat from +4 in the previous quarter. AUD/USD traded at 0.7218 on Thursday, up 0.12%.

Upcoming events: ECB press conference, FOMC October meeting
Investors will be looking ahead to ECB press conference in Malta today. The ECB’s governing council will conclude its meeting in Malta. The Eurozone inflation fell by 0.1% from its August level, showing its first deceleration of all year. ECB president Draghi said in last month’s meeting that “ECB will use all the instruments within its mandate” to stimulate growth, adding bond buying initiative provides it with sufficient flexibility to adjust the size, composition and duration of the program.
Investors will also be awaiting next week’s FOMC monetary policy meeting for more hints on short-term interest rates lifting decision within the year.

Market movements
Overall, the dollar rose 0.13%, EUR/USD fell 0.07%, USD/JPY gained 0.09% and GBP/USD fell 0.16%. Emerging market currencies and commodity currencies were lower with pressure from China stocks fall and commodity prices drop. South African rand fell 1.70%, Russian ruble fell 1.60%, Mexican peso fell 0.46% and New Zealand dollar fell 0.49%. Australian dollar fell 0.68% on Wednesday late trading, however rebounded slightly on Thursday in Asia.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

Edition 27｜October 27, 2015​

The U.S. dollar turned lower against other major currencies after slowed U.S. housing data on Monday. New home sales dropped to 468,000 units, far below the expected 549,000 and falling 11.5% from its previous month’s sales at 529,000. The decline seems transitional from deteriorating weather condition in North West region, which limited the dollar’s downward movement. Also, high expectations of hawkish statements in the FOMC meeting this week gave limitation to its further decline.

The euro rebounded against the dollar after falling steeply to 1.0995 on Friday by reaching its lowest level since August. The German IFO reported the business climate index for Germany at 108.2 which was lower than previous month’s figure but it was better than expected index at 107.8. EUR/USD rose 0.38% traded at 1.1033, gaining from its recent weakest level. The gain was only slight due to high expectation of FOMC meeting statements with positive outlook of rate hike in the U.S.

British pound rose against the dollar after greenback index falling by slowed housing data. UK’s CBI industrial order expectation index fell to -17, far below its expected -8 and -7 in previous month. But, the export part rose to -17 from -24 in September, trimmed pound’s loss. The slowed data in U.S. housing sector led the pair changing hands by adding 0.24% but showing limited gains ahead of FOMC meeting.

Japanese yen rose against the greenback with increased arbitrage trades. Recently USD/YEN was high by reaching over 121.5 from increased possibility of quantitative easing program by European Central Bank and the rate cut from central bank in China. But the expectation for Bank of Japan’s improved monetary policy meeting on Friday and the slowed U.S. housing data shortened its gain by falling down to 120.70. The dollar trimmed its loss ahead of FOMC meeting on Thursday.

Elsewhere, the emerging market currencies and commodity related currencies were generally strong despite the oil price drop. South African Rand gained 0.03%, NZ dollar gained 0.54% Australian dollar rose 0.43% and Turkish Lira gained 0.60%. But the oil price drop impacted to Russia and Brazil’s rates, Russian ruble fell 0.98% and Brazilian real lowered by 0.76%.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, October 27
New Zealand is to release data on its trade balance.
The U.K. is to publish preliminary data on its third quarter GDP growth.
U.S. is to release bundle of data on durable goods order, housing prices, PMI service sector and consumer sentiments.

Wednesday, October 28
Japan is to release data on retail sales.
Australia is to publish index on consumer price inflation.
Germany is to release data on import prices.
In the U.S., The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark rate and publish rate statements. It will outline economic conditions and rate decision factors for investors.

Thursday, October 29
In New Zealand, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its rate decision and give monetary policy meeting statements.
Japan is to produce data on industrial production.
Australia is to release data on import prices.
Germany is to publish data on consumer price inflation and number movements in employment.
U.S. is to release data on third quarter GDP growth and initial jobless claims followed by Atlanta Fed president Lockhart’s statements at an event.
Later the day, figures on pending home sales will be released.

Friday, October 30
Japan is to release data on household spending, inflation and unemployment rate.
New Zealand is to publish a report on its business confidence.
Australia is to release data on producer prices.
In Germany, data on retail sales will be released and GfK is to report on consumer sentiments.
Bank of Japan is to take monetary policy meeting and give press conference on its benchmark rate and economic statements.
Eurozone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation and data on unemployment rate.
U.S. is to release data on personal income and spending, Chicago PMI manufacturing data and index on consumer sentiments.

(Mia Chung)
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