Solforex.com - Weekly/Daily Forex Market Analysis

[limyeeshin]

Edition 18｜August 24, 2015​

The U.S. dollar showed weakness after the release of dovish FOMC minutes and intensified market volatility after devaluation of the yuan that pushed back the expectations for the rate hike next month. Despite the improved U.S. housing data and consumer inflation, the New York state manufacturing shrank and Kazakhstan and Vietnam exchange rates showed steep change followed by the yuan. Most importantly, the dovish statements in FOMC meeting added force to the dollar weakening.

Chinese manufacturing activity have shrunk with the fastest pace in six and a half years which have added concerns to global financial market. China has the second largest economy in the world that such contraction could give strong negative impacts to markets around the world. Thus, the grown fears after the contracted manufacturing reading have brought great fluctuation in the forex market.

On the other side, the euro showed strength after German parliament has passed the Greece bailout programme with overwhelming votes in favor. It jumped more than 1% against the dollar on Friday. EUR/USD gained 1.28% to 1.1383, the pair ended the week with gains of 2.55% which is the strongest growth since April.

The raw material prices have dropped that have brought great drops to the related currencies. Russian Ruble fell steep by 6.45% and Australian dollar was weakened by 0.68%.

New Zealand dollar also fell, traded with U.S. counterpart at 0.6682. RBNZ is to release quarterly inflation expectation and the Deputy Governor is to speak on property market today.

Japanese yen ticked in early Asia today while waiting for the final June Japanese Leading Index. JPY/USD changed hands, gained 0.14%.

The British pound kept its bullish state, ended the week with almost seven week highs against the dollar with GBP/USD at 1.5722.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 24
Fed President of Atlanta state Dennis Lockhart is to speak. Market investors will closely watch his comments as he stated in his last speech that the rate hike will be executed unless the economic data show great depreciation.
Japan is to release Leading Index.
In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank deputy governor Grant Spencer is to speak on central bank view of the property market at a private event.

Tuesday, August 25
Housing indexes are to be released in the U.S. Data include FHFA housing price, S&P Case-Shiller index and new home sales. Also, consumer confidence data is to be released. These data are expected to be improved which might prompt the rate hike issues.
New Zealand is to release the quarterly data on inflation expectations
In Germany, GDP growth is to be released followed by IFO Institutes’ report on its business climate.
Switzerland is to release employment level data.

Wednesday, August 26
The U.S. is to release data on durable goods order. Consensus expects the new orders are to be shrunk at -0.4% from its previous month’s reading at +3.4%. However, industrial production and manufacturing activity showed improvements recently that durable goods order is also expected to be improved.
New Zealand is to release its trade balance.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens is to speak.

Thursday, August 27
The U.S. is to release the preliminary data of second quarter GDP growth, as well as the initial jobless claims and pending home sales data.
Jackson Hole conference starts in the U.S. with central banks governors attending from different countries.
Australia is to release data on private capital expenditure.

Friday, August 28
The U.S. is to release PCE price index; consensus shows decreased expectation at +0.1% due to recent drop of oil and raw material prices.
Also, personal income/expenditure and consumer sentiments are to be released in the U.S.
Japan is to publish bundle of data including retail sales, inflation rate, personal spendings and consumer inflation.
U.K is to publish revised data on second quarter GDP growth.
Germany is to release data on consumer inflation.

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[limyeeshin]

Thursday August 27, 2015

The U.S. dollar held stronger with confidence toward economic data improvements. It was a bit shortened after New York Fed President Dudley’s statement that September rate hike is not going to be easy, however the strong figure on durable goods order that has increased 2.0% compared to expected decline of -0.4%, has reassured of market growth and turn the dollar back to bullish. Moreover, the stock market growth based on the economic confidence increased the range of dollar strengthening.

China has lowered the export and import tax charge followed by lowering interest rates and cash reserve ratio. It indicates that the possibility or exportation growth is to be increased in China and it may lead to stabilizing the emerging market currencies.

In the Eurozone, the ECB member Peter Praet stated that lower commodity prices and signs of economic weakness mean the risk that Eurozone might miss the short-term inflation targets. He indicated that ECB is prepared to proceed quantitative easing if necessary. The euro was weakened more than 1%, EUR/USD lost 1.16% to 1.1386.

The Japanese yen was weakened after the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda remarks that he is counting on a tight labor supply to raise consumer inflation to reach its target of 2%, as well as Chinese policy actions to support Japan’s sluggish exports. His statement were seen as to continuing easy policy that has brought down the yen, USD/JPY changed hands at 120.11, 0.16% today.

The Aussie gained on Thursday with investors focused on China’s stimulus, trade AUD/USD at 0.7132, up 0.20%.

Overall, the dollar gained 0.86%, the euro fell 1.72%, the yen fell 0.87%, and the pound also was weakened by 1.45%. The emerging currencies showed bullish movements, Russian ruble gained 0.66%, South African Rand was up 0.87%, Brazilian Real gained 0.48%, and Turkish Rira was up by 0.23%. However, other commodity exchange rates were weakened, with Norway Krone falling 1.94%, NZD down 0.67% and the Aussies slid 0.2%.

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[limyeeshin]

Edition 19｜August 31, 2015​

Last week, the forex market had increased volatility due to slowdown of growth in China brought recent turmoil in the global market. The U.S. dollar was weak as slowed economy in China affected equities and commodities and brought concerns on rate hike to delay. However, market sentiment improved after China released monetary policy to shore up growth and the U.S. economic data released later the week had fast pace of growth in second quarter.

On Friday, Fed Vice Chairman Fisher announced at the Jackson Hole meeting that the initial rates determination is to be based on upcoming economic data, spurring the rate hike expectations, turned the dollar bullish.

The euro and yen were bullish, with the outflows from great investment to emerging countries through quantitative easing. However, the euro fell against the dollar on Friday after the Federal Reserve Vice indicated that the interest rates could still rise next month. The EUR/USD fell 0.51% at 1.1187 in late trade.

The pound was low against the U.S. counterpart, after falling to seven weeks lows in previous session due to the spur of rate hike after Fed official showed positive indication toward the rate hike next month. GBP/USD traded 1.5400 late Friday, a little recovered from 1.5334 earlier in the day.

New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence today, while Australia is to report on company operating profits.

Overall, the dollar was bullish by 1.16%, the euro fell 1.83% and the yen gained 0.25%. Elsewhere, the rebound of the oil price led the Russian ruble bullish by 5.57%. The commodities rate also showed variations, brought bearish to according currencies, The Australian dollar fell 2.02%, Brazilian real fell 2.33%, South African rand fell 2.50%, Swedish Crone by 1.24% and the Turkish lira fell 0.17%.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, August 31
The U.S. is to release Chicago and Dallas fed manufacturing index.
Australia is to report on the company sentiments.
New Zealand is to release private sector data on business confidence.
Germany is to publish data on retail sales.
The Eurozone is to release preliminary data on consumer price inflation.

Tuesday, September 1
China is to release PMI reports on manufacturing and service activity and is expected to slightly shrink at 49.8 from previous month’s figure of 50.0. If the figure is improved, it could bring variation to the market.
The U.S. is to release ISM report on manufacturing activity; consensus expects it to be improved at 52.8 from 52.7 in July.
Japan is to release PMI report on manufacturing activity.
In Australia, the Reserve bank is going to hold a monetary policy meeting and is to announce its benchmark interest rate and rate statements.
Germany is to report on change in unemployment.
The Eurozone is to publish unemployment rate.
The U.K. is to publish data on manufacturing activity and net lending.
Canada is to release data on second quarter GDP.

Wednesday, September 2
The U.S. is to release ADP nonfarm payrolls report and factory orders. Also, the Fed report beige book is to be released which outlines economic performances and trends that could influence rate hike determinations.
Australia is to release data on GDP in second quarter.
Eurozone is to publish producer price inflation.
U.K is to publish data on construction sector.

Thursday, September 3
Australia is to report on retail sales and trade balance.
The U.S. is to release trade balance. The import and export trend will indicate the variation to the emerging countries’ currencies.
The Eurozone is data on retail sales and ECB is to hold monetary policy meeting.
The Eurozone including U.K. and Germany is to release PMI reports on service sector.
Canada is to release trade balance.
The U.S. is to publish weekly figures on jobless claims.

Friday, September 4
Japan is to produce figures on average cash earnings.
The U.S. is to release nonfarm payrolls report and wage growth data. Market participants will closely watch these reports as improvements could spur rate hike issues.
The Eurozone is to publish revised data on second quarter GDP growth.
Germany is to release data on factory orders.
Canada is to release employment report.
In the late U.S., Richmond Fed President Jeffery Lacker is going to speak.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

Thursday September 3, 2015​

Dollar gains despite ongoing China concerns

The U.S. dollar held stronger with spurred rate hike in September. Despite lower than expected figures in the ADP employment report, the initial rate rise seems to remain unaffected as the non-farm payrolls adjusted up in July.

The dollar gains were expected to be limited as the concerns on influences from China economy to global market persists. Economic reports showed that the manufacturing sector in China contracted in fastest pace in three years, also manufacturing in Europe and U.S. was slower than expected. The Chinese shares were lower, adding fears over the global economic outlook. The concerns on outlook began to ease on Wednesday which pushed the dollar slightly higher.

Aussie weakened with weak retail sales

The Australian dollar was slightly stronger in early trading on Thursday ahead of trade balance and retail sales data release. AUD/USD was up 0.12% at 0.7046. However, later the retail sales data fell 0.1%, not meeting the expectation of 0.4% gain and the trade balance for July came in at A$2.460 billion, improved from A$2.93 billion in June. The AI group services index showed at 55.6 increased from last month’s figure at 54.1. AUD/USD changed hands at 0.7014, down 0.33% after the data release.

Elsewhere

Japanese yen weakened after Bank of Japan member Kiuchi stated as reaching 2% inflation would be hard by monetary easing itself and the government bond buying is distorting prices. The Nikkei rose in early trade shortened demand for the yen, but the Nikkei ended slightly lower. USD/JPY changed hands, up 0.12% traded at 120.48 on Thursday.

The pound was steady with almost three months lows against the dollar after the U.K construction data was at slower pace than expected, dampening the outlook for the third quarter growth. Also, the outlook that BoE would not execute rate hike ahead of monetary policy meeting next week slightly weakened the pound. GBP/USD fell to 1.5291, remained steady with the euro with EUR/GBP down to 0.7372. The euro was broadly weakened ahead of ECB monetary policy meeting.

New Zealand dollar rose against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday but the gains have been capped by the concerns on China volatility. NZD/USD hit 0.6369 on Wednesday, gaining 0.47%. The kiwi went higher against the aussie with AUD/NZD slid to 1.1064, down 0.18%.

Overall, the dollar gained 0.49%, the euro fell 0.82%, the yen fell 0.80%, and the pound slightly weakened by 0.04%. Once the oil price dropped to $43 range, the Russian ruble fell 1.17% and Brazilian real fell 1.47%. Emerging currencies were generally weak, with Turkish Lira weakened by 0.39% and Indonesian rupiah down 0.21%.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

Edition 20｜September 7, 2015​

The U.S. dollar turned lower on Friday after the slowed employment report aggravating clarity toward rate hike decision this month. In the earlier week, the ISM manufacturing activities were also lower than expected as well as Chinese PMI manufacturing showing disappointing figures, adding concerns to economy slowdown.

The U.S. non-farm employment sector was slowed with the smallest increase in five months showing much lower than expected figure. The average wages were raised with decreased unemployment however it gave uncertainty to the execution of initial rate rise this month.

The safe asset yen showed bullish movements together with the euro after the reports adding concerns to delay in rate hike and economy downturn. However, the euro fell after the ECB meeting with the announcements that rates will be unchanged however the QE programme period will be extended and the asset buying limit will be expanded to 33% from current limit of 25%.

The Australian dollar jumped in early trading in Asia today after the AIG construction index showing greatly improved figure at 53.8 in August from its previous reading of 47.1 in contraction. ANZ jobs lifting sentiment also jumped up 1% from a 0.4% decline in July. AUD/USD traded at 0.6942, up 0.48%.

The British pound fell to four month lows against the U.S. counterpart; GBP/USD traded at 1.5170, down 0.57% the weakest since May. The pound remained defensive after U.K. business activity was slowed in August, giving concerns to the outlook for third quarter growth. It was also lower against the euro with EUR/GBP trading at 0.7346, up 0.8%.

Ahead of the week, investors will be looking ahead to U.K industrial production data and Thursday’s BoE monetary policy statements. There will also be monetary policy meetings in Canada and New Zealand.

Overall, the dollar shortened its strengthening, up 0.13%, the euro fell 0.30% and the yen greatly gained by 2.23%. The emerging currencies were generally low, the Indonesian rupiah fell 1.29%, Turkish lira fell 2.86%, South African rand fell 4.14% and the Australian dollar fell 3.71 in late trading. The oil price variations were enlarged, brought bearish to according currencies, the Russian ruble fell 5.00% and Brazilian real fell 7.35%.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 7
The U.S. and Canada markets are closed for Labor Day holiday.
Germany is to release data on industrial production
In the Eurozone, Sentix report on investment sentiments is to be released.
The Swiss National bank is to publish foreign currency reserves.

Tuesday, September 8
China is to release trade balance. Consensus shows expectations of improved figure at $4.86 billion from previous month’s figure of $4.3 billion. The improvement in Chinese trade balance could ease the concerns on global economy and could spur emerging currencies to rise.
The U.S. is to release data on labor market conditions index.
Japan is to release data on GDP growth, current account and bank loans.
Australia is to release private sector data on business confidence.
The OECD composite leading indicator is to be published.

Wednesday, September 9
The U.S. is to release job openings and labor turnover survey.
The U.K. is to release data on industrial production and manufacturing production. Also, the trade balance is to be published.
Japan is to release data on consumer sentiments.
Australia is to release data on home loans and consumer sentiment.
Canada is to release data on building permits followed by the BoE announcement of benchmark interest rate and rate statement.

Thursday, September 10
China is to release consumer and producer price inflation. The consensus shows consumer price to be improved to +1.9% from +1.6% in previous reading but decreased in producer figures at -5.6% from -5.4%.
The Bank of England is to hold monetary policy meeting.
In Australia, data on unemployment rate and employment movements will be released.
Japan is to publish data on machinery orders.

Friday, September 11
Germany is to release consumer and wholesale price inflation.
Japan is to release data on BSI manufacturing index.
The U.S. is to produce data on producer prices and consumer sentiment.

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[limyeeshin]

Thursday September 10, 2015​

Aussie down despite solid employment
The Australian dollar fell on Thursday in Asia early trading despite improved jobs figures as investors weighed more to Chinese slowed data. The Australian unemployment rate went down to 6.2% with 11,500 jobs added but Chinese producer prices fell 5.9%, worse than expected drop of 5.5% and the consumer prices rose slightly by 0.5% near the expectation. AUD traded with its U.S. counterpart at 0.6975, down 0.61%.

Kiwi weakened sharply with rate cut
The New Zealand dollar went down sharply in Asia today after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its overnight cash rate down to 2.75% from 3.00% as expected. Kiwi traded with the greenback at 0.6260%, sharp decrease by 2.11%.

Yen fell with stock market increase
Japanese yen went lower with reinforced global risky asset preferences. In Asia, Japanese market index was largely increased by +7.71%, alsoEurope and U.S. markets increased in the morning session, brought bearish to yen. More, the Chinese active monetary policy showed pump-priming volition with amicable gestures to emerging markets, further weakened yen. The U.S. market turned down in the afternoon session however, with sharp oil price drop after EIA reported short term outlook, shortened weakening of the yen.

Euro turned bullish after oil price drop
The euro was bearish in early trading in response tovariation in carry trades with the expectation toward emerging markets improvement. In the afternoon session, the oil price dropped sharply followed by the stock market drop switched the euro strengthening and the dollar shortened its bullish gap.

Bank of Canada kept the rates unchanged
The Canadian dollar went higher after Bank of Canada decided to hold its overnight cash rate at 0.5% as expected. The BoC had already cut the rates twice in this year due to low oil prices that impacted its economy slowdown. The bank said movements in Canadian dollar were helping to absorb lower commodity prices impacts. It also added, while the outlook for export is still unclear, the latest data shows that rate-sensitive exports are regaining its momentum. CAD/USD gained 0.33%, it was also higher against the euro, with EUR/CAD traded at 1.4695, slid 0.69%.

Market movements
Overall, the U.S. dollar slid 0.01%, euro gained 0.04%, the yen fell 0.59% and the pound fell 0.17%. Emerging currencies were generally low, South African rand fell 0.55%, Russian ruble fell 0.83%, Indian rupeewent down 0.45%, Turkish lira lowered 0.95%, Chinese yuan fell 0.17%, AUD and NZD fell further this morning after the rate cut.

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[limyeeshin]

Edition 21｜September 14, 2015​

The U.S. dollar turned broadly lower with attenuated expectations toward rate hike possibilities. The U.S. economic data also contracted from its previous month’s figures. The import prices shrank and the consumer sentiments dropped far below the expectation. Thus, the concerns are increased toward outlook for consumptions and manufacturing slowdown and there are grown expectations that Federal Reserve will delay the rate hike execution on Thursday. USD/EUR fell 0.51%, USD/GBP fell 1.51% and USD/AUD fell 2.22% at late session on Friday.

The Chinese trade balance showed reasonably satisfactory level in consideration of Tianjin explosion. Fixed asset investment rose 1.09% in China very near to 11% expectation, also industrial production gained 6.1%, little below 6.4% expected and retail sales rose 10.8% above the expectation of 10.5% gain. Thus, the concerns on impact to global financial market are slightly eased after the data release.

The Australian dollar turned slightly low on Monday as mixed data of Chinese retails and industrial outputs could spur this week’s interest rates consideration by Federal Reserve. AUD/USD traded at 0.7085, down 0.08%.

Investors will be closely watching this week’s Federal Reserve policy announcement. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has previously announced that the decision for interest rate increase is highly dependent to economic outputs but has also implied that the rate hike will be likely to be executed before the end of this year.

Also, Switzerland central bank and Bank of Japan are to hold monetary policy meetings.
Overall, the dollar was bearish, down 1.08%, Japanese yen also fell by 1.31%. The euro turned bullish, up 1.73% and the Australian dollar went up 2.64% with satisfying Chinese data.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 14
The Eurozone is to release data on industrial production.
Switzerland is to release producer price inflation and retail sales data.
Japan is to release revised data on industrial production.

Tuesday, September 15
The U.S. is to release data on retail sales, industrial production and New York state manufacturing. The consensus shows expectations of retail sales at +0.3% and industrial production at -0.2%.
The U.K. is to produce data on consumer and producer price inflation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to release the minutes on its recent monetary policy meeting.
Bank of Japan is to hold monetary policy meeting and announce its benchmark interest rate with rate statements.
The Eurozone is to release employment movements and trade balance. Also, ZEW Institute is to release report on Eurozone and German economic sentiments.

Wednesday, September 16
New Zealand is to publish data on the current account.
The U.K. is to release change in unemployment claims and rates. Also, data on average income is to be published.
The Eurozone is to release consumer price inflation.
In the U.S., the consumer price inflation data is to be released and also the FOMC meeting will begin. The consensus shows consumer prices to stay at 0.0%, below previous month’s figure of +0.1%

Thursday, September 17
Japan is to publish trade balance.
New Zealand is to publish data on second quarter GDP growth.
The U.K. is to release data on retail sales.
In the U.S., FOMC meeting results will be announced. Investors will focus to the statements as the dollar might fluctuate depending on its decision.
There will be also data released on housing starts, building permits, jobless claims and Philadelphia state manufacturing in the U.S.

Friday, September 18
Japan is to publish its central bank meeting minutes on monetary policy decisions.
Eurozone is to release balance on current account.
U.S. is to publish composite leading index.
Canada is to release consumer price inflation.
On Sunday, Greece is to hold early general election.

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[limyeeshin]

Thursday September 17, 2015 ​

Dollar slides lower after consumer price data
The U.S. dollar trimmed its gains after declined data of consumer price inflation. Consumer price went lower at -0.1%, below the previous month’s figure +0.1% and not meeting the expectation of 0.0%. The slowed data supported growing expectations of the rate hike delay ahead of its Fed announcement on Thursday. But the result that consumer price decrease is caused from the oil price drop and other factors and it can be less likely to influence FOMC meeting and hence limited dollar’s loss.
Investors are attentive to the FOMC result on Thursday with increased uncertainty for Fed to raise rates. Increase in rates would boost the dollar by yield seeking investors.

Japanese yen slightly weakened with ongoing trade deficit
The yen slid on Thursday as the trade data for August showed ¥57 billion deficit. The deficit expanded from fifth straight monthly deficit of ¥54.1 expected. Imports fell 3.1%, further than the expectation of 2.2% drop and exports rose 3.1%, less than 4.0% expected.

NZ dollar slid with expectation of further rate easement
New Zealand dollar went lower after the release of second quarter GDP data with 0.4% increase, a little below the 0.5% expected. The GDP has grown year on year as expected and recent rebound in dairy prices may support further growth but could be limited by drought risks. The expectation has been grown for the Reserve bank of New Zealand to take further easement of the official cash rate. NZD fell 0.29% to its U.S counterpart, traded at 0.6347.

Euro and sterling gains while Eurozone consumer price index stays flat
The Eurozone consumer price was unchanged in August, compared to -0.6% decrease expected. The euro rose 0.28% against greenback, traded at 1.1302. In the U.K, the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.6% better than expected, also the average earnings rose 2.9% after 2.6% increase in July, above +2.5% forecast. The pound gained 1.07% against greenback, traded at 1.5507.

Overall market movements
Overall, the dollar fell 0.26%, the euro gained 0.20%, yen fell 0.11% and the pound rose 0.98%. Emerging currencies and commodity currencies were generally higher ahead of FOMC meeting. Russian ruble gained 2.36%, South African rand by 1.25%, Mexican peso rose 0.68%, Brazilian real up 0.64%, and Turkish lira gained 1.03%. The Australian dollar gained 0.64% and Canadian dollar rose 0.57%.

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[limyeeshin]

Edition 22｜September 21, 2015​

The U.S. dollar fell steep after Federal Reserve decided to have rates unchanged on Thursday with concerns over soft inflation and the impact from recent market volatility. The Fed said, the labor market needs further improvement and the inflation needs to be reasonably confident to hike interest rates. The Fed made downward adjustments for the future economy outlook and the inflation rates. Moreover, the Fed Chair Yellen showed concerns over China and emerging countries economy at the press, further lowered the dollar.

However, the dollar rebounded on Friday after an ECB member mentioned about the Fed’s decision to freeze rates came from uncertainty over future global economy outlook. It brought concerns to investors on global economy slowdown and increased the preference toward safe assets, strengthened the dollar and gold price.

The euro fell sharply on Friday after the greenback rebounded with increased preferences toward safe assets. ECB’s Coeure said that ECB can adapt QE asset purchase program if downward risks to inflation entrench, grew the expectations that QE program will be enlarged. The euro fell 0.35% broadly and fell 1.19% against the greenback at late session on Friday.

The British pound shortened its gains against the greenback on Friday with the dollar rebounding from a sharp selloff. The pound gained broadly with the expectations of rate hike during the week but the Bank of England Chief Andy Haldane reconfirmed his position against near-term rate hike on Friday. He also mentioned that the policy could be tightened to support the objective of inflation and recovery. GBP/USD was down 0.4% on late Friday, traded at 1.5528.

The Australian dollar slightly went higher on Monday in early Asia with a light regional data day ahead. AUD/USD traded at 0.7190, up 0.03%.

Japanese market is closed due to public holiday until Wednesday 23rd.

Overall, the dollar fell 0.35%, the euro fell 0.30%, the yen strengthened by 0.47%, and the pound gained 0.67%. Elsewhere, Turkish lira gained 1.36% and South African rand gained 1.88% in accordance with the greenback weakening.

Weekly Events and Forecasts
Ahead of the coming week, Solforex has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 21
Japan market is closed for national holiday.
Germany is to release producer price inflation.
Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.
The U.S. is to publish report on existing home sales. Consensus expects decreased amount at 5.50M.
The Atlanta state fed president Dennis Lockhart is to speak.

Tuesday, September 22
Japan market is closed for national holiday.
Australia is to release house price index.
China is to release CB composite leading index.
Switzerland is to report on its trade balance.
In the U.S, the FHFA housing price index is to be released followed by Richmond state manufacturing index.
In the Eurozone, consumer sentiment index is to be release.

Wednesday, September 23
Japan market is closed for national holiday.
China is to release Caxin PMI manufacturing index; Forecast: 47.6, Previous month: 47.3
In the Eurozone, PMI manufacturing is to be released followed by ECB executive Mario Draghi’s speech before the Monetary Committee meeting in Brussels.
In the U.S., PMI manufacturing index is to be published; Forecast: 53.1, Previous month: 52.9
Canada is to report data on retail sales.

Thursday, September 24
New Zealand is to publish report on its trade balance.
Japan is to release PMI manufacturing index.
In Germany, Gfk consumer sentiment is to be published and IFO institute is to report on business climate.
The U.S. is to release data on durable goods order, new home sales, and initial jobless claims.
Later the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at the University of Massachusetts event.

Friday, September 25
Japan is to publish data on consumer price inflation, national and Tokyo region.
In Germany, Buba chair Jens Weidmann is to speak.
In the U.S, the second quarter revised data on GDP growth is to be released. Also, data on PMI service sector and consumer sentiment is to be reported.

(Mia Chung)
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[limyeeshin]

Thursday September 24, 2015 ​

The euro rises after ECB members’ hawkish comments
The euro turned higher after European Central Bank members showed hesitation for further comprehensive asset purchasing program. The president of ECB Mario Draghi implied that it is yet early to decide whether to extend the level of quantitative easing program as the outlook for long term inflation in the Eurozone is uncertain. Slovenian Central bank president also said it is not easy to proceed additional QE program at current state. The hawkish statements from ECB members boosted the euro, up by 0.59%. The euro gained to its U.S. counterpart, up 0.47% at the late session, recovering from its early losses.

USD/JPY keeping balance despite safe asset preferences
The U.S. dollar and Japanese yen slightly fell despite increased safe asset preferences after Chinese manufacturing slowdown. The slowed data in China brought concerns to emerging countries outlook with some impacts to according currencies. Investors are looking ahead for Federal Reserve Chair Yellen’s statements as some Fed members indicated the possibility of rate hike this year.

New Zealand dollar goes higher against U.S. dollar despite lower trade balance
In New Zealand, the trade balance for August was worse than expected with widened deficit of NZD 1.035 billion, much bigger than NZD850 million expected. NZD broadly fell however gained to its U.S counterpart, traded at 0.6287, up 0.17%.

Aussie goes weak with Chinese manufacturing falls
The Australian dollar held weaker after Caixin PMI data showed weakness by falling to 47 from the August level of 47.3, fell to 78-month low. AUD is very much linked to China’s economic status as Australia exports the largest amount of commodity to China. AUD/USD traded at 0.7075, down 2.1%

The pound goes lower with crashing in oil prices
The pound fell to its U.S. counterpart with the impacts from oil price drop. The U.K. and Norway, the related countries with the North Sea oil production are largely influenced by the oil prices drop, thus the pound fell broadly with fallen Brent oil, down 0.79%. Meanwhile, the pound is keeping pressured with the data for public borrowing sector rose to £12.1 billion in August from £10.7 billion in earlier year. GBP/USD hit the pair’s lowest level since September 8, traded at 1.5298. The pound was steady with the euro, traded at 0.7245.

Overall market movements
Overall, the US dollar fell 0.06%, the euro gained 0.59%, the yen fell 0.13% and the pound fell 0.79%. Emerging currencies were broadly lower with slowdown in China and the commodity price drops. South African rand fell 1.25%, Russian ruble fell 0.45%, Turkish lira fell 0.44% and Brazilian real fell steep by 2.16%. Commodity currencies also fell, Canadian dollar went down by 0.54%, New Zealand dollar by 0.82% and Australian dollar by 1.38%.

(Mia Chung)
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