Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Brent declined to 80.00, with the market focusing on EIA data today

Brent crude oil prices are declining for the fifth consecutive trading session. Read about it in the analysis for 24 July 2024.

Brent trading key points

• The market awaits EIA data: inventories are expected to have increased by 0.70 million barrels
• Brent forecast for 24 July 2024: 82.80 and 76/80

Fundamental analysis

Brent continues to fall as part of a downward correction, reaching 80.00. Today, market participants await the release of US oil stock data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the American session. Inventories are projected to have risen by 0.70 million barrels. A significant divergence between the actual data and the forecast may drive further movement of Brent quotes.

US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) was released yesterday. According to the statistics, US hydrocarbon reserves decreased by 3.90 million barrels last week, while the forecast suggested a decline of only 2.47 million. As a result, Brent prices received support and, halting their decline, stabilised around 80.00-81.00.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD declines: the market favours the US dollar

The EURUSD pair continues to decline. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary policy easing. For a detailed analysis, please refer to our forecast dated 25 July 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• The EURUSD pair is falling due to the strength of the US dollar
• The Federal Reserve is expected to provide clarity on its intentions for September
• EURUSD forecast for 25 July 2024: 1.0822 and 1.0777

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday’s US PMI data was mixed.

Markit’s preliminary services PMI for July increased to 56.0 points from 55.3, while the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.5 points from 51.6.

Key news this week for EURUSD includes the upcoming release of the US Q2 2024 GDP estimate this evening. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will also be published on Friday. This is one of the most crucial reports for the Federal Reserve, based on which the regulator assesses the inflationary environment.

The US economy is expected to have expanded by 2.0% in April-June compared to only 1.4% in Q1.

The anticipated Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for next week. Few expect the Fed to make significant decisions at this meeting; all predictions are for September. However, the Federal Reserve’s remarks regarding its September plans could be more detailed in this case.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: investors await inflation data

The EURUSD rate is slightly rising after rebounding from the 1.0830 support level. Will the US dollar strengthen? Find out in our analysis dated 26 July 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• US GDP rose by 2.8% year-over-year in Q2
• Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 87 points
• Traders focus on US inflation data
• EURUSD forecast for 26 July 2024: 1.0874, 1.0818, and 1.0777

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 26 July 2024 shows that the US economy continues to grow in Q2 2024, albeit at a slowing pace. According to preliminary data from the US Department of Commerce, GDP increased by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly exceeding analysts’ expectations. However, this is the lowest reading in the past several quarters, indicating US economic slowdown amid tightening monetary policy. Markets continue to price in a 100% chance of a Federal Reserve cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index continues to decline, reaching 87 points in July, the lowest reading since February 2024. This reflects rising concerns of German businesses about the country’s economic outlook and exerts pressure on the euro rate.

Today, traders focus on the PCE price index report, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. Previous data showed that inflation eased in Q2 but remained elevated. The overall PCE index rose by 2.6%, while the core index, which reflects steady inflation trends, increased by 2.9%. This data indicates persisting inflationary pressure in the economy and confirms traders’ expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY falls: the market awaits BoJ interest rate hike

The USDJPY rate is declining after rebounding from the 154.65 resistance level. Find out more about market expectations ahead of the BoJ and Federal Reserve meetings in our analysis dated 29 July 2024.

USDJPY trading key points

• The BoJ is expected to raise the interest rate by 10 basis points
• The market awaits Federal Reserve interest rate cut signals for September
• USDJPY forecast for 29 July 2024: 151.31, 154.50, and 157.10

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen is strengthening today, bolstered by market expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike. Investors hope the central bank will take action to curb inflation.

Markets forecast that the BoJ will raise the interest rate by 10 basis points to 0.1% at the upcoming meeting. According to analysts, if the central bank does not increase rates, it will be forced to resort to a more aggressive quantitative tightening policy to prevent sharp fluctuations in the USDJPY rate following the announcement of the decision.

Both the BoJ and the US Federal Reserve meetings are scheduled for Wednesday. The decisions of these central banks will significantly impact the movements of the USDJPY currency pair. While investors expect the Bank of Japan to raise the interest rate, they are also looking for signals from the Federal Reserve about a potential rate cut in September.

Traders note that the USDJPY pair was overvalued, and the current dynamics do not favour the US dollar. Any signs of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy may significantly push down the dollar-yen rate.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD may decline further

The EURUSD rate corrected on Tuesday following an aggressive decline a day earlier. Why does the market remain cautious? Find out more in the analysis dated 30 July 2024.

EURUSD trading key points

• The market awaits the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday for potential interest rate cut signals
• Today, traders will focus on the June job openings and July Consumer Confidence Index
• EURUSD forecast for 30 July 2024: 1.0800 and 1.0775

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure, trading around 1.0815. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, following which the base rate will likely remain unchanged but may provide hints about a rate reduction in September. Traders believe that if no clear signal is given about a rate cut, this may help strengthen the US dollar.

Despite higher-than-expected US GDP growth rates in Q2, the likelihood of monetary policy easing remains high. Although inflation has slowed, it continues to be the regulator’s concern.

Today, investors will focus on June’s job openings data and July’s Consumer Confidence Index. The long-awaited July employment report will be released on Friday, significantly impacting traders’ expectations about the Federal Reserve’s future policy.

Overall, market participants are not inclined to take active action as they await the central bank’s dovish decision. In this situation, the EURUSD rate may decline further.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY plummets: the market had been anticipating the BoJ’s decision

The USDJPY pair is falling rapidly. The Bank of Japan has done its utmost to support the yen. Find out more in our analysis dated 31 July 2024.

USDJPY trading key points

• The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate to 0.25%
• The USDJPY rate is declining rapidly
• USDJPY forecast for 31 July 2024: 151.26 and 150.77

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen maintains its upward trajectory, which began a little earlier. The market had anticipated the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s meeting. The USDJPY rate is declining.

Japan’s interest rate increased by 25 basis points to 0.25% per annum, up from 0%. Additionally, the BoJ announced plans to reduce bond purchases in the second half of the year. This was the most anticipated outcome of the meeting.

In its comments, the Bank of Japan noted that inflation risks for this year and the next have increased. Consumption in the economy is considered stable despite rising prices, and wage growth is accelerating. This is a significant achievement for the Bank of Japan, as wages have been relatively stagnant for a long time.

Japan’s GDP is expected to increase by 0.6% in 2024, with the economy expanding by 1.0% in 2025. Core inflation is projected to be 2.5% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises after the Fed’s meeting and comments from Chair Jerome Powell

The XAUUSD price increased to 2,458 USD following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and accompanying comments. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 1 August 2024.

XAUUSD trading key points

• Market focus: The Federal Reserve chair confirmed a potential rate cut in September; the market awaits Friday’s US employment data
• Current trend: upward price momentum is underway
• XAUUSD forecast for 1 August 2024: 2,458 and 2,430

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes have reversed upwards, showing steady growth after the US Federal Reserve’s meeting and subsequent speech by its chair, Jerome Powell. As expected, the key interest rate remained at 5.5% at this meeting, with all 12 FOMC members unanimously agreeing on the decision.

In his remarks, the Federal Reserve chair noted that the US economy was approaching a point where monetary policy easing might be appropriate and hinted that a rate cut could occur in September. Gold reacted to Powell’s comments by rising to 2,458 USD per troy ounce.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent crude oil is trading around 80.00 USD; focus on US employment market data today

Brent price is consolidating within a limited range near 80.00 as market participants await US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data. Find out more in the Brent analysis for today, 2 August 2024.

Brent trading key points

• US data: the market awaits employment market statistics today
• Brent forecast for 2 August 2024: 82.80 and 78.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes halted their decline as part of a downward correction after reaching a local low of 78.00. This week’s US oil stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a decrease in oil inventories by 4.49 and 3.43 million barrels, respectively.

Today, market participants are awaiting the release of US July employment statistics, which will reveal nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Oil prices will likely be influenced by the reaction of the US stock market to employment data: a rise in the stock market will help strengthen Brent’s price, while a decline would push prices lower.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY reaches a new low for the year: a decline is just beginning

The USDJPY pair is rapidly falling, with investors having three reasons for this. Find out more in our analysis dated 5 August 2024.

USDJPY trading key points

• The USDJPY pair has fallen to a low not seen since 3 January
• The market is concerned about a US recession
• USDJPY forecast for 5 August 2024: 138.10, 149.80, and 142.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is plummeting to 142.96. The market is actively engaging in sales for at least three reasons.

The first reason is the active exit of investors from carry trade operations. Market participants began to exit short positions in the yen after the Bank of Japan signalled its readiness to tighten monetary conditions.

The second reason is concerns about a US recession. Last Friday, the US released a block of weaker-than-expected employment data. Investors are worried that the Federal Reserve might be late in easing monetary conditions, potentially allowing for an economic contraction.

The third reason is the increasing appeal of the JPY as a safe-haven asset amid tensions in the Middle East and their potential global implications.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Positive US macroeconomic data drives USDJPY upwards

The USDJPY rate is rising amid increased business activity in the US. Find out more in our analysis dated 6 August 2024.

USDJPY trading key points

• The US services PMI increased to 51.4 points, exceeding previous readings and analysts’ forecasts
• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President emphasised the importance of preventing a decline in the employment market
• The strongly oversold USDJPY pair makes the Japanese yen vulnerable to positive US economic data
• USDJPY forecast for 6 August 2024: 148.20 and 149.20

Fundamental analysis

The Japanese yen dipped to 145.75 per US dollar, retreating from seven-month highs. This decline is caused by a statement from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and a stronger-than-expected services report.

The US ISM services PMI rose to 51.4 points in July 2024, up from the previous reading of 48.8 and exceeding analysts’ forecasts. The increase is driven by a rise in new orders, which reached 52.4 points in July, up from 47.3 the previous month. This indicator signals increased demand for services and the general strengthening of business activity.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, underscored the critical need to prevent a decline in the employment market. She expressed readiness to lower interest rates if necessary and emphasised the need for a proactive policy.

Traders now expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy by 110 basis points this year, with the likelihood of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in September estimated at 75%.

Today’s USDJPY forecast indicates that the strongly oversold pair makes the Japanese yen vulnerable to positive US macroeconomic data, prompting investors to shift their preference towards the US currency.

Market analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Market analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team