Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD halted its decline: even sellers take a break

The AUDUSD pair has paused around 0.6434. The Australian dollar could tumble at any moment. Find out more in our analysis for 5 December 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUDUSD pair halted its decline
• The market capitalised on trade surplus statistics to pause AUD sales
• AUDUSD forecast for 5 December 2024: 0.6480

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6434 before stabilising.

The latest data revealed that Australia recorded its largest trade surplus in eight months this October, thanks to a recovery in exports.

However, the AUD remains near a four-month low against the US dollar as the market continues to factor in weak GDP data and anticipates an imminent easing of monetary policy by the RBA.

On Wednesday, the AUDUSD pair declined by almost 1%.

The AUDUSD forecast appears bleak, with sellers likely to return to the market at any moment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating within a range ahead of nonfarm payrolls

XAUUSD prices are consolidating within a narrow range near the 2,650 USD level as market participants await US employment statistics. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 6 December 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants await US labour market data, with nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate due today
• Current trend: consolidating within a range
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 December 2024: 2,700 and 2,600

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices continue to hold firmly above 2,600 USD. The asset appears poised to complete its correction and move towards annual highs. The US labour market statistics released during the American trading session could drive further price increases.

The data released by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) on Wednesday showed an increase of 146 thousand in US jobs, which was nearly in line with the forecast of +150 thousand.

The market awaits another batch of US employment statistics today: nonfarm payrolls (the economy is projected to show an increase of 200 thousand jobs) and the unemployment rate (projected at 4.2%). Better-than-forecast data will support the US dollar, likely extending the correction in the XAUUSD pair. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures could trigger a return to Gold’s annual highs.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD declines to 1.0539: investors avoid risk

The EURUSD pair is under selling pressure, with the market favouring the US dollar again. Find out more in our analysis for 9 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair has been declining for the second consecutive trading session
• This week’s US inflation report will be the last statistics to be released before the Federal Reserve meeting
• EURUSD forecast for 9 December 2024: 1.0535, 1.0480, and 1.0460

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.0539 on Monday.

The US dollar earlier came under pressure as investors were selling the USD following the release of US labour market statistics for November. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from the previous 4.1%. It remained unchanged for two consecutive months and has only now shifted in a negative direction. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 227 thousand, while a month ago, the indicator increased by a symbolic 36 thousand.

Monthly job gains in the past four reports averaged 150 thousand. The figure is less than required to provide jobs for the constantly growing population.

This week, the focus will be on the inflation release, the last significant report before the December Federal Reserve meeting.

The EURUSD forecast appears negative.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent is trading below 72.00 USD following the OPEC+ meeting

Brent is trading within a broad sideways range, with prices currently hovering around 72.00 USD. Market participants did not receive significant signals from the OPEC+ meeting. Find out more in our Brent analysis for today, 10 December 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Current trend: trading within a broad consolidation range
• Market focus: the OPEC+ decision aligned with market expectations
• Brent forecast for 10 December 2024: 72.00 and 70.00

Fundamental analysis

At Thursday’s meeting, OPEC+ decided to keep oil output at current levels for Q1 2025. The group plans to gradually increase production starting from Q2 and continue this policy until September 2026. This decision aligned with market expectations, resulting in no strong reaction from oil quotes, with prices remaining in the 70.00-76.00 USD sideways range.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release US oil stock statistics today, with data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) due tomorrow. A reduction in oil reserves may support Brent prices, whereas an increase in the figures could push the asset lower.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY halted its rise, pausing ahead of a new wave of growth

The USDJPY pair is consolidating around 151.60. The prerequisites for further growth remain in place. Discover more in our analysis for 11 December 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair halted after a wave of growth
• The local strengthening of the US dollar is exerting pressure on the yen
• USDJPY forecast for 11 December 2024: 150.77

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 151.60 and then paused to consolidate.

The Japanese yen remains near a two-week low against the US dollar, as expectations surrounding the release of the US inflation report are supporting the USD.

Japan’s Tankan Index data was negative in December, while the BSI in the manufacturing sector improved in Q4 2024. Producer price statistics were also released, showing Japan’s fastest growth in 16 months. The focus of yen supporters has shifted to the December Bank of Japan meeting. While the market anticipates an interest rate hike, doubts about it remain significant.

The USDJPY forecast does not rule out further price increases.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

AUDUSD: the Australian dollar has a chance of strengthening

Amid positive data from Australia, the AUDUSD rate may continue its ascent to the 0.6444 level. More details in our analysis for 12 December 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Australia’s employment change in November: previously at 12.2 thousand, currently at 35.6 thousand
• Australia’s unemployment rate in November: previously at 4.1%, currently at 3.9%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 224 thousand, projected at 221 thousand
• AUDUSD forecast for 12 December 2024: 0.6444

Fundamental analysis

Australia’s employment change reflects the difference in the number of officially employed citizens over the reporting period. The previous value was 12.2 thousand, while the actual figure came in at 35.6 thousand, exceeding both expectations and the earlier reading. This could indicate some improvement in Australia’s economic climate. Following the release of the employment data, the AUDUSD pair underwent a correction.

Australia’s unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, down from the previous reading. Fundamental analysis for 12 December 2024 shows that this improvement in unemployment figures became a positive factor for the Australian dollar.

The forecast for 12 December 2024 suggests that US initial jobless claims for the previous week are likely to fall to 221 thousand from the previous 224 thousand. The decrease is expected to be minor, serving as a neutral factor for the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Weak US unemployment data supports a decline in EURUSD

Despite the ECB decision, the EURUSD rate remains under pressure, currently standing at 1.0461. Discover more in our analysis for 13 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US dollar remains under pressure even after a 25-basis-point ECB interest rate cut
• US initial jobless claims rose to 242 thousand, reaching the highest level since mid-October
• US PPI increased by 3.0%, marking the most substantial growth since February 2023
• Traders expect the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate by 0.25% next week, with the probability estimated at 96.4%
• EURUSD forecast for 13 December 2024: 1.0460 and 1.0410

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining for the sixth consecutive trading session, with sellers seeking to establish a foothold below the 1.0465 support level. The US dollar remains under pressure despite the ECB reducing the interest rate by 25 basis points. Markets are now likely to expect another 25-basis-points cut by the Federal Reserve next week. However, the US regulator’s future actions in 2025 remain uncertain, which adds pressure to the pair according to today’s EURUSD forecast.

The ECB reiterated its commitment to reducing inflation to its medium-term target. However, its press release omitted the statement regarding keeping rates at restrictive levels as long as necessary. The regulator noted that future interest rate decisions would be based on economic data analysis at each meeting without pre-committing to a predetermined course of action.

Meanwhile, the US initial jobless claims rose by 18 thousand to 242 thousand, the highest level since mid-October. This data reinforced expectations of a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with the markets estimating the odds at 96.4%. At the same time, producer prices rose by 3.0% year-on-year in November, marking the most substantial increase since February 2023 and greatly exceeding analysts’ expectations. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.4%, matching October’s pace and exceeding the average expert forecast of 3.2%.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDCHF: the Swiss franc continues to lose ground against the US dollar

A rise in US industrial production and retail sales could drive the USDCHF rate up to 0.9040. More details in our analysis for 17 December 2024.

USDCHF forecast: key trading points

• SECO economic forecasts for Switzerland
• US retail sales (m/m): previously 0.4%, projected at 0.6%
• US industrial production (m/m): previously -0.29%, projected at 0.10%
• USDCHF forecast for 17 December 2024: 0.9040

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 17 December 2024 takes into account that Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) will release updated economic growth forecasts today. The previous forecast, published on 19 September 2024, expected GDP growth of 1.1%, significantly below the average. The inflation forecast for 2024 was revised down to 1.2% from 1.4%, and the 2025 outlook was reduced to 0.7%. Today’s SECO report will provide the latest data on economic conditions and the outlook for 2025.

The forecast for 17 December 2024 suggests that US retail sales may rise to 0.6%. Actual data may differ from expectations; however, increased sales in November may support the US dollar.

US industrial production is also projected to rise to a positive level from the previous -0.29%, with the forecast for 17 December 2024 suggesting a production level of 0.10%. Although this is a modest increase, it may instil hope in investors.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) remains within the range: the Fed is in the spotlight

Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating around 2,650 USD, with the market awaiting news from the Federal Reserve. Find out more in our analysis for 18 December 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: Gold (XAUUSD) remains flat without any news from the Federal Reserve
• Current trend: the asset’s prospects depend on the Federal Reserve signals for 2025
• XAUUSD forecast for 18 December 2024: 2,690.00 and 2,735.25

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) prices hover around 2,650 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday.

Consolidation is a natural development ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed’s December meeting will conclude this evening. The baseline scenario suggests a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut. The market will look for clues about how the Fed intends to act in 2025 amid multiple uncertainties around monetary policy and the country’s economy.

Gold prices have risen 28% this year, which could be the highest annual gain since 2010 by the end of the year. This was primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing, demand for safe-haven assets, and systematic purchases of Gold by global central banks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD declines after Powell’s comments

The EURUSD rate retreated sharply to 1.0350 following the US Federal Reserve meeting and subsequent comments from Jerome Powell. Find out more in our analysis for 19 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate by 0.25%
• Stock markets are in negative territory, while the US dollar strengthens after the Fed’s decision
• EURUSD forecast for 19 December 2024: 1.0400 and 1.0330

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% following its two-day meeting on 17-18 December. The decision was expected, but subsequent comments from the regulator’s chief and new economic forecasts adversely affected the stock market (the S&P 500 index fell by 3% at once), strengthening the US dollar against all other currencies.

The US dollar strengthened mainly due to the Fed’s revision of its inflation outlook for 2024 and 2025. Inflation is projected to run at 2.4% at the end of 2024, up from 2.3% in the September release. The Federal Reserve expects inflation in 2025 to be 2.5%, up from 2.1% in the previous forecasts.

At a press conference following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that the Fed’s current policy does not negatively affect the economy, allowing the regulator to adopt a more cautious approach to future actions. The Fed wants to see a tangible slowdown in inflation before implementing the next rate cut.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team