Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) rises: the market favours buyers

Gold (XAUUSD) prices have risen to 2,715 USD amid strengthening demand for safe-haven assets. Find out more in our analysis for 17 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Gold prices maintain their upward trajectory
• The market’s demand for safe-haven assets boosts interest in Gold as such
• XAUUSD forecast for 17 January 2025: 2,727 and 2,730

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) quotes continue their ascent, reaching a monthly high of 2,715 USD.

Two key factors are driving Gold prices upward. The first is the prospect of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut larger than expected. This outlook became apparent following the release of this week’s economic data. The second factor is the heightened demand for safe-haven assets, as investors seek risk-averse strategies ahead of potential US White House measures to introduce stricter trade tariffs.

The Gold (XAUUSD) forecast appears positive.

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen against the US dollar

XAUUSD quotes continue to rise ahead of the US presidential inauguration. More details in our XAUUSD forecast for today, 20 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Today is a holiday in the US due to the Birthday of Martin Luther King Jr.
• The inauguration of US President Donald Trump
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 20 January 2025: 2,689 and 2,733

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows that the pair is completing a correction and may start forming a new growth wave.

As of 20 January 2025, Gold prices continue their upward momentum, reaching 2,700 USD per troy ounce. This rise is driven by persisting geopolitical tensions, especially given the recent developments in the Middle East and uncertainty in the global economy.

The XAUUSD forecast for 20 January 2025 considers that amid Trump’s inauguration and some strengthening of the US dollar, XAUUSD prices may continue to grow.

The outlook for the USD relative to Gold for the coming months does not look optimistic. Given the current trends and increased demand for the precious metal, gold prices may exceed 3,000 USD per troy ounce.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY is under pressure ahead of the BoJ decision

The USDJPY rate is correcting, though the currency pair remains under pressure, with the price currently at 155.50. Discover more in our analysis for 21 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The Japanese yen has strengthened for the second consecutive week, driven by market expectations of a BoJ interest rate hike
• The Bank of Japan officials have made hawkish statements, increasing confidence in monetary policy tightening
• Kazuo Ueda’s press conference is the market’s key event
• USDJPY forecast for 21 January 2025: 154.30 and 153.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate shows signs of growth after rebounding from the 154.90 support level. Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is strengthening for the second consecutive trading week amid rising expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike. This was triggered by hawkish comments from the bank’s officials, which increased market confidence in monetary policy tightening.

The Bank of Japan is expected to announce an interest rate hike on Friday, pushing short-term borrowing rates to 0.5%, the highest level since the global 2008 financial crisis.

As the rate hike is almost inevitable, the market’s attention is turning to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference. Investors will closely follow his comments to gain insight into the regulator’s future plans regarding the pace and timing of interest rate hikes.

Japan’s inflation remains above the 2.0% target, with the weak yen continuing to pressure import prices. In this situation, Ueda will likely emphasise the regulator’s resolution to proceed with tightening monetary conditions to curb inflationary pressures.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY holds steady ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting

The USDJPY pair is hovering around 155.80, with the market focus on the future BoJ interest rate decision. Discover more in our analysis for 22 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair is subdued, awaiting news
• The market forecasts a Bank of Japan interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting
• USDJPY forecast for 22 January 2025: 155.85 and 156.59

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate stands at 155.80 on Wednesday. The Japanese yen has paused its recent rally as investors conserve their strength for future movements. Market attention is focused on the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting this week.

Supported by hawkish statements from certain monetary policymakers, baseline stock market expectations indicate that the BoJ will increase the interest rate. The rate hike would raise Japan’s short-term borrowing costs to 0.5%, marking the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

The Bank of Japan meeting is more crucial than external events. The US dollar is in a weak position, as the excitement over trade tariffs and inflation stabilisation offers little support to the US currency.

The USDJPY forecast appears neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD: the pair failed to breach the 1.0450 resistance level

The EURUSD pair is undergoing an upward correction after forming a local low. The bulls were unable to surpass the 1.0450 resistance level immediately. Find out more in our analysis for 23 January 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Donald Trump has not yet imposed new trade tariffs on the European Union
• Current trend: upward correction
• EURUSD forecast for 23 January 2025: 1.0450 and 1.0350

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate strengthened, rising to a five-week high of 1.0450, following news that US President Donald Trump held off on imposing stricter trade tariffs on the European Union. Nevertheless, concerns remain about potential near-term restrictions from the US.

In her speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde urged Europe to prepare for possible US trade sanctions. Regarding monetary policy, the ECB is expected to continue easing by reducing the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points next week.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

XAUUSD forecast: Gold continues to strengthen against the US dollar

A potential rise in inflation and a decrease in the US PMI could support Gold growth to 2,790 USD. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 24 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• The University of Michigan US inflation expectations: previously at 2.8%, projected at 3.3%
• US services PMI: previously at 56.8, projected at 56.4
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 24 January 2025: 2,790 and 2,750

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD forecast for 24 January 2025 shows that the pair continues to form a growth wave.

The University of Michigan's US inflation expectations will be released at the beginning of the US trading session. The previous reading was 2.8%, and the forecast for 24 January 2025 suggests that inflation may rise to 3.3%, affecting XAUUSD prices.

The US services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is projected to decrease to 56.4 given that it has been gradually increasing over the past three months. A weaker-than-forecast actual reading may lead to the weakening of the US dollar. A stronger-than-expected PMI could support the US dollar to some extent.

The XAUUSD price forecast appears rather optimistic, with prices having the potential to reach new highs.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

EURUSD declined: the Fed and Trump’s plans ahead

The EURUSD pair tumbled to 1.0464. The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting this week and taking into account the signals from the White House. Find out more in our analysis for 27 January 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair started the week with a slight decline
• All eyes are on the outcome of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its intentions regarding March
• EURUSD forecast for 27 January 2025: 1.0432 and 1.0385

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.0464 on Monday.

The new week of January will be eventful. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will decide on the interest rate. The markets will primarily focus on signals regarding the March meeting. If inflation declines and approaches the Fed target of 2%, the interest rate will have to be lowered.

Friday’s US statistics showed a slowdown in business activity to a nine-month low in January. This happened amid rising price pressures. At the same time, data was released showing that existing home sales in the country soared to a 10-month high in December.

The market is very positive about Donald Trump’s program “America First”. However, against this backdrop, inflationary pressures have accelerated to a four-month peak. At the same time, companies are hiring at the fastest pace since 2022.

The EURUSD forecast is so far neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Brent declined to the 76.00 USD support level

Brent quotes continue to decline within a downward correction, with the asset finding support from buyers in the 75.60-76.00 USD area yesterday. More details in our Brent analysis for today, 28 January 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Current trend: a downward correction continues
• The US oil inventories statistics from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be released today
• Brent forecast for 28 January 2025: 75.60 and 77.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices declined to a two-week low within the current downward correction. Oil prices are under pressure from concerns about falling demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, and the tough economic policy of Donald Trump, who calls on OPEC to cut oil prices.

The US API oil inventories statistics will be published today, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data scheduled for release tomorrow. A decrease in oil reserves may support Brent quotes, while growth will push the asset prices lower.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

USDJPY: yen’s attempts to strengthen failed

Amid the release of the Bank of Japan meeting minutes and the US Federal Reserve rate decision, the USDJPY pair may continue to rise to the 156.00 resistance level. Discover more in our analysis for 29 January 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Minutes of the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting
• The US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
• USDJPY forecast for 29 January 2025: 156.00 and 154.20

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 29 January 2025 takes into account that the BoJ released the minutes of its December 2024 monetary policy meeting today. During the discussions, Board members focused on assessing the economy’s neutral interest rate to determine the timing of future rate hikes.

One of the meeting attendees noted that the current rate is well below the neutral level and needs to be timely raised. Another one expressed doubts about the use of data from Japan’s long-term deflation period to assess the timing of future rate hikes.

Despite keeping the interest rate unchanged in December due to uncertainty about the US economic policy and wage dynamics, the BoJ raised the rate already in January, which significantly impacted the USDJPY rate.

Market participants continue to monitor the Bank of Japan's neutral rate estimates, which, according to analysts, ranges between 1% and 2.5% although many believe it is closer to 1%.

The USDJPY forecast takes into account that the US Federal Reserve will decide to change the interest rate today. At this stage, analytical agencies are inclined to believe that the interest rate may remain unchanged at 4.5%, and if the actual reading turns out to be different, this will increase volatility in the market.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Vlad RF]

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to strengthen

Rising US jobless claims and a potential decline in GDP open the potential for XAUUSD growth to 2,790 USD. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 30 January 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Q4 GDP: previously at 3.1%, projected at 2.7%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 223 thousand, projected at 224 thousand
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 30 January 2025: 2,790 and 2,740

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD forecast for 30 January 2025 shows that XAUUSD prices are consolidating around 2,761 USD, and the pair could continue to form a growth wave in the future.

Today, the US will release Q4 GDP data, which is projected to decrease to 2.7%, down from the previous reading. Given that GDP is the aggregate value of all goods and services produced in a country, calculated only for end products, excluding the costs of raw materials, its decline may indicate an economic downturn.

US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

The previous reading was 223 thousand, and the forecast for 30 January 2024 appears rather optimistic, suggesting an increase in jobless claims to 224 thousand. This is a minor change, and the release of data that aligns with expectations will not have a significant impact on XAUUSD quotes.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team