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[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 23.09.10: GBP: British Pound Sterling began the descent

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling started to go down slightly on Thursday after two days of rapid growth amid positive external background.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD today however it goes down giving grounds for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving an antipodal, a pair buy signal on Thursday.
Forex recommendations: it is probable that the bulls’ interest to the pair might be displayed again amid the current external background then in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5700 the pair will go to 1.5750 and 1.5790.
Domestic economic process continues to put pressure on the British currency; the released macro-statistics does not give grounds for optimist either.
It became known earlier that mortgage approvals in the UK amounted to 45 thousand in August; previous value was 47 thousand; market was not elated by this information which caused the Pound decrease; amid the Rightmove data which demonstrated another decline in the houses prices the situation in the sector seems deep gloom.
The Bank of England interest rate is at the level of 0.50% per annum now where it remains for five consecutive months.
The data on the retail sales level in Great Britain released last week appeared to be very weak, demonstrating decline by 0.5% while investors had expected growth by 0.3% in August. It is an alarm bell for the economy: it indicates in particular that people feel cautious and alerted regarding their spending as the British economy outlooks are still very uncertain.
It became known today that Confederation of British Industry has changed its UK growth forecast for the year 2010 – thus as per agency expectations the country’s GDP this year will amount to 1.6% against June forecast of 1.3%; in 2011 the British economy will go up to 2% against the previous forecast of 2.5%. Confederation experts explained that decrease in the forecast was caused by the impact of the budget expenditure reduction program.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 23.09.10: AUD: Australian Dollar looks downward

The Australian Dollar rate goes down at the Forex currency market on Thursday – correction for the pair started just at the moment when market began to talk about approaching parity.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD today however it does not give a clear signal, merging with the signal line. Stochastic Oscillator has not formed a signal today being in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9580 the pair will go to 0.9640 and 0.9700. If the level of 0.9510 is exceeded, sellers’ targets will be the levels of 0.9450 and 0.9400.
There are no any fundamental changes in the Australian economy so far.
Following quite aggressive statement made by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Steven earlier where he emphasized that the natural resources boom would continue in the medium term resulting in the Australian economic growth which would be in keeping with the trend and in the year of 2011 would accelerate- the Aussie began to grow. Stevens noted also that if the economy slowdown risks are not justified the Bank will start monetary tightening policy.
The minutes of the RBA last meeting was released yesterday; it indicated that the regulator may increase interest rate if the situation in the country requires. The next RBA meeting is scheduled for 5 October and market believes that the RBA will announce interest rate increase again then. Now the rate is at the level of 4.50% per annum and it has been maintained at this level for nearly half a year.
According to the data released earlier GDP level in Australia rose to the maximum of the last three years in QII demonstrating increase by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.9%. Previous index value was at the level of 0.7%. Economists believe that Chinese demand for iron ore is an activator of the Australian economic growth. New interest rate increase hardly threatens Australia. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.50%per annum now. The main and official version of the last RBA meeting is as follows –current level of the inflation decline made it possible not to undertake drastic measures to tighten monetary policy so far.
As became known on Wednesday leading indicators index in Australia increased by 0.4% in July to 269.5 as per Westpac-Melbourne estimation; at the same time its annual growth rate reduced to 6.8% against the previous level of 7.4%. As the chief economist Bill Evans noted current forecast assumes that average growth in 2010 will amount to 3.5% and it will be steady until the end of the year despite sudden changes in some sectors. Coincident indicators index also increased in July: by 0.4% (+4.3% y/y)
Evans stressed that this data can encourage the RBA to raise interest rate to 4.75% at the next meeting.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 24.09.10: Euro rose by 2% against Dollar within a week

The pair EUR/USD is traded with a slight increase at the Forex currency market on Friday after yesterday’s retracement downward.
By 9.10 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3326 against closing session level of 1.3313 yesterday.
The Euro’s decline on Thursday was caused by the poor Eurozone statistics although the currency had already seemed overheated after steady growth earlier in a week.
At the same time the Euro has chances to complete this week with the increase – its weekly growth against the USD is a bit over 2%.
This afternoon investors expect data release on the U.S. durable goods orders volume in August as well as new houses sales in August.
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3150-1.3430 on Friday trading session.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 24.09.10: CHF: Franc is in the ascending channel for the sixth session

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to go up on Friday after sideways trend yesterday.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF however it is going up giving the Franc buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is not giving a clear signal yet.
Forex recommendations: the trend is bearish for the pair at the moment due to the Dollar’s weakness.
However if the growing momentum outweighs buyers’ targets will be 0.9930 and 0.9960.
Economic situation in Switzerland remains unchanged.
It became known earlier that investors’ optimism index ZEW in Switzerland declined to -5.1 in September against the previous level of 9.1.
Swiss economy seems to be stable at the moment: GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country.
Earlier positive data was released on the Swiss Exports in August: the index increased by +8.6% on annual basis.
As the Swiss Customs administration noted that surplus increase is associated with the expensive Franc. Furthermore extra working day in August also counted.
We would recall that the Franc declined significantly at Forex due to the bad news pressure from the SNB. Thus at the last week meeting the Bank decided to keep the interest rate at the level of 0.25% for three months. However the major impact on the CHF had another factor: the Bank announced that with the current interest rate inflation level in the country would amount to 0.7% this year and 0.3% in 2011. By the year of 2012 inflation level will hit the level of 1.2%. Thus indicated inflation level makes it possible for the SNB to leave monetary policy unchanged which affected the Franc’s rate.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 24.09.10: JPY: There are attempts to put pressure on Yen with the help of intervention again

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate goes down on Friday – market suggests that the Bank of Japan carried out the second tranche of currency intervention early in the morning today.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY however it started to go up giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.
Forex recommendations: the pair USD/JPY buyers’ targets today will be the levels of 85.60 and 85.90.
The pair exceeded the level of 85.00 at Forex this morning with no obvious reasons and the market assumed that the Bank of Japan has carried out another intervention. However there is no official confirmation of another intervention yet.
We would remind that currency intervention conducted by the Bank of Japan last week was intended to reduce significant fluctuation at the currency market however it would not help the country to curb deflation. Noda noted also that China should continue to work out currency reforms. Finance Minister Noda noted on Friday that although different countries interpret intervention differently he believes that his country’s actions are appropriate; however he agrees that the whole background of the process should be explained.
Naoto Khan won elections and became the head of the Democratic Party, retaining the leader’s chair. In response the Yen surged to a new peak as Khan is not so ardent supporter of the currency intervention as his rival Odzawa. The last events showed that investors’ joy was premature.
The Bank of Japan representative Miyao stated today that any change in monetary policy is probable as its effect should be closely monitored.
The head of the Bank of Japan Shirakawa said on Wednesday that intervention conducted on 15 September was the only logical solution to the issue of the growing cost of the Yen as the situation required urgent intervention and economic salvation from the impact of the expensive domestic currency. The head of the Bank Shirakawa made a statement in which he noted that authorities should closely monitor the downside risks to the national economy; the politician gave an indication that the Bank’s further intervention is probable. On Thursday Shirakawa noted that intervention would help to appease Forex market; currency market as well as stock market is unstable although the economy itself demonstrates moderate recovery.
As it became known right now Finance Minister Noda withheld comments on the fall of the Yen at Forex today.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 24.09.10: AUD: Buyers of the Australian Dollar lack self-confidence

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is going up at the end of the week however technical indicators give antipodal signals.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD however it goes down forming a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has not formed a clear signal on Friday.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9570 the pair will go to 0.9640 and 0.9700. If the level of 0.9460 is exceeded sellers’ targets will be the levels of 0.9410 and 0.9350.
The situation in the Austral economy has not changed much so far.
The minutes of the RBA last meeting was released earlier; it indicated that the regulator may increase interest rate if the situation in the country requires. The next RBA meeting is scheduled for 5 October and market believes that the RBA will announce interest rate increase again then. Now the rate is at the level of 4.50% per annum and it has been maintained at this level for nearly half a year.
According to the data released earlier GDP level in Australia rose to the maximum of the last three years in QII demonstrating increase by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.9%. Previous index value was at the level of 0.7%. Economists believe that Chinese demand for iron ore is an activator of the Australian economic growth. New interest rate increase hardly threatens Australia. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.50%per annum now. The main and official version of the last RBA meeting is as follows –current level of the inflation decline made it possible not to undertake drastic measures to tighten monetary policy so far.
As became known on Wednesday leading indicators index in Australia increased by 0.4% in July to 269.5 as per Westpac-Melbourne estimation; at the same time its annual growth rate reduced to 6.8% against the previous level of 7.4%. As the chief economist Bill Evans noted current forecast assumes that average growth in 2010 will amount to 3.5% and it will be steady until the end of the year despite sudden changes in some sectors. Coincident indicators index also increased in July: by 0.4% (+4.3% y/y). Evans stressed that this data can encourage the RBA to raise interest rate to 4.75% at the next meeting.
Following quite aggressive statement made by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Steven earlier where he emphasized that the natural resources boom would continue in the medium term resulting in the Australian economic growth which would be in keeping with the trend and in the year of 2011 would accelerate- the Aussie began to grow. Stevens noted also that if the economy slowdown risks are not justified the Bank will start monetary tightening policy.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 24.09.10: GBP: Pound is going to determine movement direction on Friday

At the Forex currency market there is a slight decline in trading for the British Pound Sterling on Friday as it is determining movement direction after two days of growth.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD and it is going up confirming a pair previous buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a pair sell signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5700 the pair will go to 1.5750 and 1.5800. If the level of 1.5650 is exceeded sellers targets will be the levels of 1.5610 and 1.5570.
It became known earlier that mortgage approvals in the UK amounted to 45 thousand in August; previous value was 47 thousand; market was not elated by this information which caused the Pound decrease; amid the Rightmove data which demonstrated another decline in the houses prices the situation in the sector seems deep gloom.
The Bank of England interest rate is at the level of 0.50% per annum now where it remains for five consecutive months.
The data on the retail sales level in Great Britain released last week appeared to be very weak, demonstrating decline by 0.5% while investors had expected growth by 0.3% in August. It is an alarm bell for the economy: it indicates in particular that people feel cautious and alerted regarding their spending as the British economy outlooks are still very uncertain.
It became known earlier that Confederation of British Industry has changed its UK growth forecast for the year 2010 – thus as per agency expectations the country’s GDP this year will amount to 1.6% against June forecast of 1.3%; in 2011 the British economy will go up to 2% against the previous forecast of 2.5%. Confederation experts explained that decrease in the forecast was caused by the impact of the budget expenditure reduction program.
There is an opinion at the market that the rise of GDP was caused not by fundamental its stability; it happened because the currency has no substitute.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 27.09.10: Euro is not feared to dip slightly

The pair EUR/USD dipped slightly at the Forex currency market on Monday after the last week highs.
By 10.25 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3462 against closing session level of 1.3491 on Friday.
The Unified European currency has nearly reached the level of 1.35 last week; however it is being corrected today as investors expect negative news on Eurozone this week.
Thus according to the information this morning European Committee questioned German Banks stability although such rumors have already leaked into the market not once.
In addition the government of Ireland which is one of the three problematic countries in the region intends to announce the Anglo Irish Bank restructure; market seems to be prepared morally to such news therefore real panic is improbable however speculative pressure still stands.
The day is going to be uneventful in terms of statistics therefore investors will regain from the external background.
Presumably the pair EUR/USD will be in the channel of 1.3300-1.3520 on Monday trading session.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 27.09.10: GBP: Pound continues to grow

At the Forex market on Monday the British Pound rate continues to grow – regardless of the negative statistics release.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD and is going up confirming a pair previous buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going up today too.
Forex recommendations: if current external background maintains buyers’ targets will be the levels of 1.5880 and 1.5920.
The UK statistics leaves much to be desired. Thus houses prices as per Hometrack reduced by 0.4% on monthly basis (+1.0% y/y) in September. Thus another piece of statistics shows that the rise in spring was not a stable growth.
Statistics released earlier did not make anyone happy either. It became known that approved mortgage applications in the UK amounted to 31800 in August; the data released before that showed that mortgage approvals in the UK amounted to 45 thousand in August; previous value was 47 thousand; Rightmove data earlier demonstrated another decline in the houses prices; the situation in the sector seems deep gloom.
The data on the retail sales level in Great Britain released last week appeared to be very weak, demonstrating decline by 0.5% while investors had expected growth by 0.3% in August. It is an alarm bell for the economy: it indicates in particular that people feel cautious and alerted regarding their spending as the British economy outlooks are still very uncertain.
The Bank of England interest rate is at the level of 0.50% per annum now where it remains for five consecutive months.
Thus the British Pound growth is apparently speculative as there are no fundamental factors for optimism at all.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 27.09.10: CHF: Swiss Franc retreats at the beginning of the week

Following consolidation and trades in the narrow range last week Swiss Franc retreats at the Forex currency market on Monday
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF however it grows slightly giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Monday being in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: buyers’ targets at the beginning of the week will be the levels of 0.9930 and 0.9970.
Situation in Swiss economy remains unchanged.
Swiss economy seems stable at the moment: GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country.
Earlier positive data was released on the Swiss Exports in August: the index increased by +8.6% on annual basis.
As Swiss Customs administration recorded in the documents surplus increase is associated with the expensive Franc. Furthermore extra working day in August also counted.
It became known earlier that investors’ optimism index ZEW in Switzerland declined to -5.1 in September against the previous level of 9.1.
We would recall that the Franc declined significantly at Forex due to the bad news pressure from the SNB. Thus at the last week meeting the Bank decided to keep the interest rate at the level of 0.25% for three months. However the major impact on the CHF had another factor: the Bank announced that with the current interest rate inflation level in the country would amount to 0.7% this year and 0.3% in 2011. By the year of 2012 inflation level will hit the level of 1.2%. Thus indicated inflation level makes it possible for the SNB to leave monetary policy unchanged which affected the Franc’s rate.