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[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.08.10: GBP: British Pound Sterling regains after the previous fall

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling is traded upward following the last week fall.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair GBP/USD which gives ground for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is not giving a clear signal today.

Forex recommendations: taking into account charts and external background, buyers’ targets seems to be the levels of 1.5700 and 1.5750.

As it became known today that houses price index reduced by 1.7% on monthly basis in August, while a decline by 0.6% had been expected. As became known on Friday, houses prices in Great Britain and Wales increased by 0.1% on monthly basis (+8.1% y/y), in July which became the first growth factor over the last 5 months.

Earlier the data was released according to which the UK job market has been decreasing in July - KPMG/REC calculations show that permanent jobs index declined to 60.2 in July against the level of 60.7 in June. Temporary jobs index reduced to 54.3 in July against the previous level of 57.0. As per Halifax data houses prices increased by 0.6% on monthly basis (+4.9% y/y) in July. Employment data is of interest also because statistics on Tuesday showed that number of jobs in the UK increased to 102 as per Reed index in July – key level of the growth rate is specified to be 100, excess over this level indicates rate growth. At the same time work force is required urgently in some sectors: production sector has reached the level of 116, insurance sector – 138.

The head of the Bank of England Mervin King stated last week that inflation rate of around 2% he takes as comfortable for the economy; inflation is under complete control currently. According to him none of the British Banks sought assistance from the regulator so far. King stressed that banks can apply for the funds if there is a need. Quantitative economy easing will be continued if required, said the head of the Bank.

At the same time King stressed that in the second half of this year economic growth rate might slow down in the UK and economic recovery pace will be jerky.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.08.10: CHF: Swiss Franc is in demand

Swiss Franc is in demand on Monday at the Forex currency market – amid the rebound in the major pairs the CHF is also regaining from the losses.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/CHF, however it goes down, giving grounds for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal on Monday.

Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets today will be the levels of 1.0480 and 1.0550.

The latest Swiss statistics (producer price index and imports prices in July: -0.5% m/m, +0.5% y/y; unemployment rate: 3.8% in July against the level of 3.9% earlier) seems to be mixed and intensified by the high level of volatility at Forex, made Swiss Franc fluctuate.

Meanwhile the economist Fabia Hiller stressed last week that labour market improvement will be gradual and according to the forecast unemployment rate will amount to 3.9% in 2010 on average.

According to the data released earlier consumer activity indicator in Switzerland rose to 1.81 in June against the level of 1.71 a month earlier – UBS noted in the review that index growth was mainly actuated by the increase in the number of the registered cars. However business activity index in Switzerland is still not the most optimistic.
Earlier Swiss National Bank presented monetary reserve data: the index reduced by 6.6 billion francs in June. Most likely it was caused by the assets revaluation, provoked by the national currency significant growth taken place recently. Released data suggests that SHNB did not carry out currency intervention in the first summer month. Earlier in May the Bank spent about 79 billion to buy EUR. Swiss National Bank interest rate is at the level of 25% currently and it was left untouched at the last SHNB meeting. Inflation forecast this year amounted to +0.9% (preliminary value: +0.7%), in 2011: +1.0% (preliminary value +0.9%), in 2012 – about +2.2%.
Economists believe that there is no point to expect the interest rate increase in Switzerland earlier than the beginning of the next year.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.08.10: JPY: Yen is growing again regardless

At the Forex currency market on Monday the Japanese Yen rate is going up, regaining from the slump of the last two sessions.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY, however it goes down, giving ground for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.

Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets on Monday will be the levels of 85.35 and 84.70.

Officials in Japan said today that additional measures to stimulate economy are not required so far as consumer spending supports the growth of economic system. Although spending on durable goods is almost unchanged, it is still at a high level which was also assessed as a positive factor.

It became known on Monday that Japanese economy grew only by 0.4% on annual basis in QII, while growth by 2.3% was predicted. GDP rose by 4.4% in QI.

Poor results indicated in the report along with the fact that Japanese authorities cannot respond actively because of the huge national debts suggests that economic situation in the country of the rising sun is hard.

The minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting, held on 14-15 July emphasized that growth and decline risks in economy are balanced currently; however the risks now seems higher than in April this year.
The Bank of Japan members drew attention to the fact that the downside risks in the second half of this year will prevail.
The Yen rate as well as the shares markets shall be closely monitored, says the document.
It became known on Friday that Japanese Prime-Minister Khan and the Head of the Bank of Japan Shirakawa has scheduled a meeting for the next week to discuss the ways to manipulate expensive Yen.
Japanese authorities fear that JPY consolidation at Forex will become one of the factors, affecting national economy recovery pace. Currently expensive JPY reduces exports level. Finance Minister Deputy Motohisa Ikeda stated earlier that the government would like to avoid this. The official noted earlier that Yen’s growth can jeopardize the growth of the GDP levels. Experts believe that the pressure on the Bank of ponies can now be amplified by the Prime Minister Khan. “If Yen continues to demonstrate rapid growth, pressure on the Bank of Japan is likely to increase. It seems that the Government intends to take all efforts to prevent this situation” - says Societe Generale SA.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.08.10: AUD: Australian Dollar tends to rebound

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar is traded upward on Monday due to the rebound at the global capital market and support of the growing oil prices.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, although it does not give a clear signal, merging with the signal line. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a pair buy signal, being in the neutral zone.

Forex recommendations: if the current external background maintains, buyers’ targets will be the levels of 0.9030 and 0.9070.

The following Australian data was released today:

– New vehicles sales in July -2.65m/m, +11.6% y/y to 85 019 units against -1.4% m/m in June.
It became known last week that unemployment growth has resumed in Australia – number of unemployed in the country increased by 23 thousand in July, while previously the rate went up by 37.4 thousand. Unemployment rate rose to 5.3% from 5.1%.
Apparently it is the economy response to the sharp increase of the interest rate – the economy was left without support so its reaction is not very positive. Companies do not take risk of enlarging stuff and such tendency will last till January.
Earlier the Reserve Bank of Australia retained current interest rate at the previous level of 4.50% per annum. The main and official version –current level of inflation ease will prevent from undertaking drastic measures to tighten monetary policy- and it is true in general: the last inflation report in Australia released on 28 July showed that net prices increased by 2.7% on annual basis in QII. The head of RBA Stevens is planning to hold inflation level in the range of 2-3%. He says that the core inflation is expected to be approximately in the center of the indicated range until mid- 2011, however CPI inflation can rebound above 3% due to the introduction of the tobacco and utilities taxes.
However global situation is far from being stable and smooth – and this is the second factor which put pressure on the RBA. According to Stevens forecast of the world economic recovery is still obscure and taking into account inflation factor and ambiguous prospects of the global capital markets, RBA can extend an interval in the serious of rate increases indefinitely.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 16.08.10: NZD: New Zealand Dollar continues to lose ground

At the Forex currency market the New Zealand rate continues to go down, losing ground for the sixth consecutive session.

Short term trend for the pair NZD seems to be downward, while medium term trend is trades in the range.

Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6825.

Resistance levels: 0.7180, 0.7355.

As became known on Monday service sector in New Zealand continued to recover in July – however growth rate has slowed down, which can indicate complications in the sector, particularly for the small entrepreneurs.

Thus the index has frozen at the level of 30.50 (in June: 55.1)

Interest rate is at the level of 3.0% per annum in New Zealand now. Two weeks ago the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the interest rate for the second time at a run – to 25 basis points, then an interval in the sequence of the rises was announced. “Cessation of the further monetary incentive measures is appropriate. The pace and scope of the further rate increases is likely to be more moderate than anticipated in the June statement”, said the Head of the Bank, Alan Bollard in his comment. He stressed that previous NZD growth runs counter to the plans to mitigate New Zealand economy prospects. “Growth in the economies of our trading partners proved to be better than we predicted, however outlooks have worsened. Although prices of the raw materials are still high, they became more moderate”.
The data released last Thursday showed unexpected growth of unemployment rate in QII in New Zealand, therefore domestic demand in the country remains limited and economy does not receive additional support for the growth, as has been expected by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Labour market growth in the country has apparently faced some difficulties, which the RBNZ passed over in silence while saying that pace of the interest rate increases will be moderate in the future. In this regard an interval in the chain of the interest rate increases can be long lasting.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.08.10: Euro is in demand again

The pair EUR/USD continues to recover at the Forex currency market on Tuesday – investors buy Euro at the attractive levels, support is provided by the restoring financial markets.

By 10.05 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.2854 against closing session level yesterday of 1.2825.

Nothing fundamentally new happened at the markets: assets growth normally follows a good correction, so market movements fit into predictable pattern

If the external background remains stable, the Euro has chances to go to 1.29 and beyond. Worth noting, that investors today will closely follow statistics both for Eurozone and USA, as a lot of data is going to be released.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the channel of 1.2800-1.2950 on Tuesday trading session.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.08.10: AUD: Australian Dollar continues to recover

Australian Dollar is traded upward, keeping up the growth started at the beginning of the week at the Forex currency market on Tuesday morning.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and it is going up, giving a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.

Forex recommendations: if favourable external background maintains, buyers’ targets today will be the levels of 0.9040 and 0.9070.

The minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia in August, released today, stated that GDP growth is expected to be above average in the next two years of 2011 and 1012; while core inflation level will amount to 2.75% in 2011 and in 3% in 2012.
The document says that Central Bank finds current interest rate level to be comfortable and will wait for the new data to analyze.

RBA noted also that for the inflation forecast risks can be both upward and downward, and expansion in the sector of natural resources will become the growth actuator.
Earlier the Reserve Bank of Australia retained current interest rate at the previous level of 4.50% per annum. The main and official version –current level of inflation ease will prevent from undertaking drastic measures to tighten monetary policy- and it is true in general: the last inflation report in Australia released on 28 July showed that net prices increased by 2.7% on annual basis in QII. The head of RBA Stevens is planning to hold inflation level in the range of 2-3%. He says that the core inflation is expected to be approximately in the center of the indicated range until mid- 2011, however CPI inflation can rebound above 3% due to the introduction of the tobacco and utilities taxes.
However global situation is far from being stable and smooth – and this is the second factor which put pressure on the RBA. According to Stevens forecast of the world economic recovery is still obscure, taking into account inflation factor and ambiguous prospects of the global capital markets.
It became known last week that unemployment growth has resumed in Australia – number of unemployed in the country increased by 23 thousand in July, while previously the rate went up by 37.4 thousand. Unemployment rate rose to 5.3% from 5.1%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.08.10: NZD: New Zealand Dollar makes another attempt to regain

At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar rate is consolidating on Tuesday, taking advantage of the positive external background.
Short term trend for the pair NZD/USD seems to be upward, medium term trend -downward.
Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6825.
Resistance levels: 0.7100, 0.7180.
As became known on Monday service sector in New Zealand continued to restore in July – however growth rate has slowed down, which can indicate complications in the sector, particularly for the small entrepreneurs. Thus the index has frozen at the level of 30.50 (in June: 55.1)
A conclusion induced from the figures suggests that consumers try to spend money sparingly due to uncertainty in the projections for the world economy as a whole and New Zealand economy is particular.
Interest rate is at the level of 3.0% per annum in New Zealand now. Two weeks ago the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the interest rate for the second time at a run – to 25 basis points, then an interval in the sequence of the rises was announced. “Cessation of the further monetary incentive measures is appropriate. The pace and scope of the further rate increases is likely to be more moderate than anticipated in the June statement”, said the Head of the Bank, Alan Bollard in his comment. He stressed that previous NZD growth runs counter to the plans to mitigate New Zealand economy prospects. “Growth in the economies of our trading partners proved to be better than we predicted, however outlooks have worsened. Although prices of the raw materials are still high, they became more moderate”.
The data released last Thursday showed unexpected growth of unemployment rate in QII in New Zealand, therefore domestic demand in the country remains limited and economy does not receive additional support for the growth, as has been expected by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Labour market growth in the country has apparently faced some difficulties, which the RBNZ passed over in silence while saying that pace of the interest rate increases will be moderate in the future. In this regard an interval in the chain of the interest rate increases can be quite long lasting.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.08.10: GBP: British Pound Sterling determines movement direction

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling is determining movement direction today after the growth yesterday within correction bounds.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair and it is going up, giving a pair buy signal, Stochastic Oscillator is not giving a clear signal today.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5650 the pair will go to 1.5620 and 1.5600. If the level of 1.5700 is exceeded, buyers’ targets will be the levels of 1.5730 and 1.5750/60.
Finance Minister Osborne stated this morning that average income of about 61 billion pounds is expected due to the reduction in the departmental expenditures as a remedy for the budget deficit. Osborne also stressed that if efforts to reduce budget deficit are not taken and measures are not implemented it will look much like a shady enterprise, and authorities will not agree to it. Finance Minister noted that the politicians who speak about extra work to reduce debts will lead the country to collapse and economic downfall.
It became known earlier that houses prices index reduced by 1.7% on monthly basis in August, while a decline by 0.6% had been expected. As became known on Friday, houses prices in Great Britain and Wales increased by 0.1% on monthly basis (+8.1% y/y), in July which became the first growth factor over the last 5 months.

Earlier the data was released according to which the UK job market has been decreasing in July - KPMG/REC calculations show that permanent jobs index declined to 60.2 in July against the level of 60.7 in June. Temporary jobs index reduced to 54.3 in July against the previous level of 57.0. As per Halifax data houses prices increased by 0.6% on monthly basis (+4.9% y/y) in July. Employment data is of interest also because statistics on Tuesday showed that number of jobs in the UK increased to 102 as per Reed index in July – key level of the growth rate is specified to be 100, excess over this level indicates rate growth. At the same time work force is required urgently in some sectors: production sector has reached the level of 116, insurance sector – 138.

The head of the Bank of England Mervin King stated last week that inflation rate at around 2% he takes as comfortable for the economy; inflation is under complete control currently. According to him none of the British Banks sought assistance from the regulator so far. King stressed that banks can apply for the funds if there is a need. Quantitative economy easing will be continued if required, said the head of the Bank. At the same time King stressed that in the second half of this year economic growth rate might slow down in the UK and economic recovery pace will be jerky.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 17.08.10: CHF: Swiss Franc continues to grow

Swiss Franc gains strength and is growing in pairing with the USD at the Forex currency market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area and is going down, confirming a pair previous sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: sellers’ targets today will be the levels of 1.0360 and 1.0310/00.

Economic situation has not changed much over the last day in Switzerland.

The latest Swiss statistics (producer price index and imports prices in July: -0.5% m/m, +0.5% y/y; unemployment rate: 3.8% in July against the level of 3.9% earlier) seems to be mixed; intensified by the high level of volatility at Forex, it made Swiss Franc fluctuate.

Meanwhile the economist Fabia Hiller stressed last week that labour market improvement will be gradual and according to the forecast unemployment rate will amount to 3.9% in 2010 on average.

According to the data released earlier consumer activity indicator in Switzerland rose to 1.81 in June against the level of 1.71 a month earlier – UBS noted in the review that index growth was mainly actuated by the increase in the number of the registered cars. However business activity index in Switzerland is still not the most optimistic.
Earlier Swiss National Bank presented monetary reserve data: the index reduced by 6.6 billion francs in June. Most likely it was caused by the assets revaluation, provoked by the national currency significant growth taken place recently. Released data suggests that SHNB did not carry out currency intervention in the first summer month. Earlier in May the Bank spent about 79 billion to buy EUR. Swiss National Bank interest rate is at the level of 25% currently and it was left untouched at the last SHNB meeting. Inflation forecast this year amounted to +0.9% (preliminary value: +0.7%), in 2011: +1.0% (preliminary value +0.9%), in 2012 – about +2.2%.
Economists believe that there is no point to expect the interest rate increase in Switzerland earlier than the beginning of the next year.