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[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar is recovering significantly

At the Forex currency market the Australian dollar rate keeps on yesterday’s trend, continuing to recover significantly.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of1.0380, the pair will go back to 1.0390 and 1.0420.

Today, positive external background has become a catalyst that can support restoration of the AUD from local lows.

However, statistics, released this week, was very weak: CPI rose by 0.1% q/q in Q1 (+1.6% y/y) against expectations of growth of o.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y). These data increases the likelihood that interest rate will be revised downward at the nearest meeting of the RBA. It became known earlier that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010. Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was caused by expensive AUD.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

It became known earlier, leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against provisional expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics in the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm about prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance complies with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); nevertheless, pace of growth in GDP remains below trend.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: New Zealand Dollar is soaring up

The New Zealand rate traded upward at the Forex currency market on Thursday, supported by enthusiasm in the market and stable positions of the RBNZ.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the negative area it goes down and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator started to go up in the neutral zone, and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8170 the pair will go to 0.8190 and 0.8220.

At the meeting which ended this morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% per annum, which agreed with market expectations.

The head of RBNZ said in the comments that inflationary pressure is limited and CPI is not going to exceed specified framework.

He believes that New Zealand economy demonstrates recovery, and at the same time, activity in the real estate sector is increasing.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 this year against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier.

Permits to construct fell by 6.7% m/m in February against revised level of +8.3% m/m in January. Statistics released earlier showed that business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data helped to hold NZD from significant sales. The boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence. According to the data released this morning, activity index in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: EurO is being sold out at the end of the week

The pair EUR/USD traded downward at the Forex currency market on Friday morning.

By 9.10 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3181 against yesterday’s closing level of 1.3219.

There were several reasons that caused sales in the pair this morning, the major of which was the news that agency S&P had downgraded rating of Spain. There is a threat in the country that public debt might grow due to weakening of the banking system in the country, which will ultimately increase the burden on budget deficit.

In addition, Euro/USD seem locally oversold this week, therefore, sales are logical.

It is worth noting that the U.S. statistics released yesterday was weak again and it also encourages sales.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3120-1.3210 at the trading session on Friday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound is being corrected moderately

The British Pound Sterling traded moderately downward at the Forex currency market on Friday, amid deterioration in the external environment and due to the fact that the pair is generally overbought.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the overbought zone and is ready to shape a sell signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6155, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6140 and 1.6120. Consolidation at the achieved levels is possible.

It became known today that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points. Consumer confidence Nationwide rose to 53 points in March against the level of 44 points in February. This indicator is positive, since it is at the highs of nine months.

British economic statistics released earlier was weak: GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country’s economy has been in recession for the second quarter. Favourable external background was able to brighten this pessimism; however in general this factor is still negative.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Miles has noted in the middle of the week that his view in favour of expansion of the stimulus measures has found support, although GDP statistics for Q1 is expected to be weak. British monetary politicians emphasized earlier that economic growth in the UK is still rather slow. Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will remain above 3% in throughout Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand. Volume of retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. This was much high than expected.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc steps back at the end of the week

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc steps back on Friday, remaining in the oversold range.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes down in the positive area and is giving a weak signal for selling. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go out of the oversold zone, shaping a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 0.9125, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9130 and 0.9150. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland; however it shows signs of recovery. Index of industrial activity SVME rose to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales rose by 4.4% y/y in January versus growth of 1.7% in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and indicates that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. Thus, the regulator expects that inflation will be in the range of: -0.6% to +0.6% in 2012-2014, GDP growth will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland rose to 1.22 points in March against provisional estimate of 0.9 points. Currency reserves rose to 237.5 billion in March against previous level of 224.9 billion francs. PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points.

After three -month break Swiss National Bank has a new governor now- this is Mr. Jordan who has performed the duties since January when Mr. Hildebrand left his post. Jordan has already stated that he would continue to adhere to the old monetary policy and is going to preserve the level of 1.20 in the pair EUR/ CHF. According to him, Franc is still overvalued. In general, views of the new governor found support in SNB. The Bank believe, that considering problems in Eurozone, it is still required to maintain a peg of Franc with the Euro.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank, a three-month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, SNB’s views on monetary policy have remained unchanged. Despite strong determination of SNB to maintain the level of 1.20, assumption about probability, that pegging level of Franc to Euro will go up to 1.25, is getting more persistent in the market.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen continues to rise in price

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate preserves ascending trend on Friday morning.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is in the negative area and continues to go down, maintaining a signal for moderate sales. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.70 the pair USD/JPY will go to 80.60 and 80.40. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

A lot of data on Japanese economy was released today, which shows that unemployment rate remained at the level of 4.5% in March; preliminary retail sales fell by 1.2% m/m (+10.3% y/y) last month against the forecast of decline of 0.5% m/m.

In addition, preliminary industrial production rose by 1.0% m/m (+13.9% y/y) in March against expectations of growth of 2.3% m/m.

A meeting of the Bank of Japan today was neutral: interest rate was left in the narrow range of 0-0.1% per annum, however the regulator decided to expand economic stimulus program up to 40 trillion yen (+10 trillion yens). The bank plans to buy bonds with maturities of 3 years, whereas earlier the regulator bought only securities with two year maturity.

Activity index in all sectors fell by 0.1% in February versus expectations of decline of 0.2%. Trade deficit amounted to Y82.6 billion in March against the level of Y226.3 billion in February. The data is positive and plus to this, other sections of the report showed that exports rose by 5.9%y/y last month and imports grew by 10.5% y/y.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion in Q4 against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion. Personal consumption rose by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of growth of 0.3% q/q.

According to representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Nasimury, measures taken by the Bank of Japan in February helped to stabilize exchange rate of the Yen and stimulate stock market; therefore, the regulator is ready to take more actions if required. Monetary politician stressed yesterday that Central Bank is going to make vigorous efforts in the sphere of monetary policy in order to achieve planned inflation target at 1%, the major risk factor is - overall slowdown in the world economy.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar is under pressure from external negative factors

At the Forex currency market the Australian dollar rate traded downward on Friday in response to deteriorations in external background.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD goes up moderately in the negative area and is giving a buy signal while volumes are average. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of1.0360, the pair will go back to 1.0370 and 1.0390.

Macro-economic situation in Australia is stable on Friday morning. However, decrease in investors’ sentiment in the world capital market has interrupted growth of the AUD rate.

Statistics, released this week, was very weak: CPI rose by 0.1% q/q in Q1 (+1.6% y/y) against expectations of growth of o.6% q/q (+2.2% y/y). These data increases the likelihood that interest rate will be revised downward at the nearest meeting of the RBA. It became known earlier that import price index in Australia fell by 1.2% q/q in Q1 against the forecast of -0.6% q/q. At the same time, export prices fell to the lowest level since Q4 2010. Theoretically, decline in export prices was caused by reduction in price for crude ore in Australia and fall in the price for metal scrap. At the same time, slump in imports was caused by expensive AUD.

Leading indicators index Westpac in Australia rose by 0.2% in February, up to the level of 284.2 points against provisional expectations of growth of 0.6%. Growth rate amounted to 2.4% against the forecast of 2.5%. Representatives of Westpac clarified in the comments that negative dynamics in the growth rate, which has been preserved for the past six months, does not help to instill enthusiasm about prospects; experts do not expect that the rate will rise in the nearest future either. At the same time, economic development performance complies with forecasts for Australian economy for 2012 (3%); nevertheless, pace of growth in GDP remains below trend.

Final PPI in Australia rose by 0.3% q/q (+1.4% y/y) in Q1 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Employment rate in Australia rose by 44 thousand against expectations of growth of 6.5 thousand. Unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% against previous level of 5.3%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: New Zealand Dollar is losing positions at the end of the week

At the Forex currency market the New Zealand rate goes down on Friday due to external negative factors.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD is in the negative area it goes down and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving along the signal line in the neutral zone and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8110, the pair will go to 0.8100 and 0.8090. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

At the meeting which ended this morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rate unchanged at the level of 2.5% per annum, which agreed with market expectations. The head of RBNZ Mr. Bollard said in the comments that inflationary pressure is limited and CPI is not going to exceed specified framework. He believes that New Zealand economy demonstrates recovery, and at the same time, activity in the real estate sector is increasing.

Business sentiment index NZIER was at the level of 13.0 points in Q1 against the level of 0 points in Q4 2011. House price index REINZ fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) in January against preliminary expectations of decline of 0.1% m/m. Unemployment rate in the country dropped to 6.3% in Q4 this year against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. Permits to construct fell by 6.7% m/m in February against revised level of +8.3% m/m in January. Statistics released earlier showed that business confidence rose to 33.8 points in March, as per NBNZ estimates, against the level of 28.0 points in February. The data helped to hold NZD from significant sales. The boom in the construction sector of the country remains the main catalyst for the rise in the business confidence.

According to the data released this morning, activity index in the manufacturing sector of New Zealand fell to 54.5 points in March against the level of 57.7 points in February.

GDP in New Zealand increased by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) in Q3 against the forecast of +0.6% on quarterly basis. GDP in Q2 rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.5% y/y) versus the level of +0.9% q/q (+1.6% y/y) in Q1. Actually there is stagnation in the economy of New Zealand. GDP had almost stopped its growth, however started to revive later. Most likely, the index will be weaker in Q4.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro tends to grow

The pair EUR/USD traded upward at the Forex currency market on Monday morning.

By 9.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3247 against closing level of 1.3252 on Friday.

The major pair still has potential for growth; however statistics which is scheduled for release today may change force balance in the pair EUR/USD.

Publication of statistics on the economy of Germany and Eurozone is scheduled for today. The U.S. data on the levels of income and expenditures is going to be released in the afternoon, as well as some other statistics.

Thereupon, volatility rise in the pair is not excluded.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.3180-1.3280 at the trading session on Monday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound preserves upside potential

The British Pound Sterling traded upward at the Forex currency market on Monday, preserving upside potential.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up, while volumes are high, and is maintaining a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the overbought zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations in case of breakdown at the level of 1.6290, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.6300 and 1.6320. Consolidation at the achieved levels is possible.

Apparently, favourable market sentiment continues to push the GBP upward; however the level of overbought is increasing in the pair, creating conditions for technical pullback.

It became known at the end of the week that consumer confidence index GfK in the UK amounted to -31 points in April against the forecast of -30 points. Consumer confidence Nationwide rose to 53 points in March against the level of 44 points in February. This indicator is positive, since it is at the highs of nine months.

Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Miles noted in the middle of the week that his view in favour of expansion of the stimulus measures has found support, although GDP statistics for Q1 is weak, as expected. British monetary politicians emphasized earlier that economic growth in the UK is still rather slow. Representative of the Bank of England Mr. Tucker said earlier that inflation in the UK is still above the target level; it is also highly possible that CPI will remain above 3% in throughout Q2 or probably through the whole period of the second half of 2012. At the same time, Tucker did not rule out that due to construction sector, economic growth in Q1 can be zero.

According to representative of the Bank of England Mr. Posen, there is evidence, indicating positive momentum of growth. Monetary politician believes that inflation will not exceed target level of 2% until the end of this year. At the same time, levels of consumer confidence, affected by weak data on GDP, is a cause for concern. It became known earlier that unemployment rate in the UK amounted to 4.9% in March. Level of unemployed people rose by 3.6 thousand. Volume of retail sales rose by 1.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in March against the forecast of growth of 0.4% m/m. This is much high than expected.

British economic statistics released earlier was weak: GDP in Q1 fell by 0.2% in the first reading against decline of 0.3% on quarterly basis (+0.5% y/y) a quarter earlier. It proves that country’s economy has been in recession for the second quarter. Favourable external background was able to brighten this pessimism; however in general this factor is negative.