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[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian dollar remains under pressure

Australian dollar in the forex currency market remained under pressure on Tuesday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is returned to the drawdown in the neutral zone, indicating a similar way. Key Middle Ichimoku indicator showed touch, expect a signal to sell the currency pair.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0530 the pair will go to 1.0510 and 1.0490.

The pressure on the currency kept on Tuesday - here takes into account the influence of China, and the general mood of financial markets.

Australian dollar earlier in the week regain the publication of weak data on the Chinese economy, which came out below expectations - in particular, we are talking about the levels of exports and the size of the trade deficit. As China's largest trading partner of Australia, the Aussie is actively responding to statistics from the Middle Kingdom.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m/m vs. capacity by 0.2% m / m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m/m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

RBA meeting last week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand.

Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro actively selling

The EUR/USD in the forex market trading on the downside on Wednesday morning.

By 11:00 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3029 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3082.

The sympathies of the market so far on the side of the U.S. dollar - a meeting of the Federal Reserve System was completed before the bright, the rate maintained at 0.25% per annum. In the comments, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the employment market shows recovery, and in general the situation is stable.

Today is expected to moderate stream of statistics, so investors will focus on the external background.

Most likely, the EUS/USD trading environment will not leave the range of 1.2980-1.3090.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CAD: Canadian dollar is aimed at strengthening

In the forex currency market Canadian dollar is trading at a higher amid rising crude oil.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is trading in negative territory along the signal line and do not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator falls into the neutral zone and alerts on sales.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 0.9900 the pair will go to 0.9880 and 0.9870.

Last week it was reported that the unemployment rate in Canada in February fell to 7.4% from 7.6% previously, while the number of jobs decreased by 2.8 thousand
In favor of the Canadian dollar continues to play high oil prices.

Previous statistics showed that in the IV quarter of economic growth in Canada slowed down - the real GDP in December, up 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m, but in general, in the final quarter of last Gozha Canadian economy grew by only by 0.4% against 1.0% in the III quarter. It affects a strong external influence and the decline of interest in the world to energy in the final year.

According to the head of the Bank of Canada, Mr. Carney, the current levels of interest rates correspond to the monetary situation. Recall that in mid-January, the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 1.0% per annum, which in general the market is not surprised. Bank of Canada expressed concern on the eve of the state of the housing sector - according to the regulator, 10% decline in this segment may lead to a reduction in consumption by 1%, despite the fact that the bulk of home equity loans used to finance consumption.

CPI in December dipped by 0.6% m/m (+2.3% y/y) vs. -0.1% m/m Despite the evidence, the data require some explanation. The annual CPI increase was minimal in February 2011, but she declined due to inflation decrease the cost of gasoline and other fuels.

Current account balance in the IV quarter was -CAD $ 10,33 billion in pending -CAD $ 9,6 billion in January, prices of manufactured goods to Canada grew by 0.3% while the forecast growth of 0.1%. At the same time the main driver of growth was oil prices.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound was not identified with the direction of movement

In the forex currency market rate of the pound sterling closed trading slightly lower after a volatile session on Wednesday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is oversold, and a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5680 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5670 and 1.5650. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

Currency undermined statistics: unemployment rate in February was 5.0%, while the number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand weakness of the labor sector to prevent recovery of the economy as a whole.

After the collapse of the pound in the area of local minima to the level of 1.5601 currency rebounded in the middle of the week. however, after the release of statistics on employment sellers back to trading.

Previously, the January data on the balance of foreign trade reached above the December level.

According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England, the annual inflation expectations in February amounted to 3.5% from the November estimate of 4.1%.

However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y / y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m/m (-3.8% y/y).

The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

Past the last Thursday meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc is fast receding

The Swiss franc forex in the currency market are actively selling on Wednesday.
Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, moved to the lateral movement and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and gives a buy signal is returned in the overbought zone.

Forex recommendations: 0.9310 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9320 and 0.9350. Consolidation likely near the current values.

In the middle of the week franc was preparing for the next meeting of the Swiss National Bank - recently increased the level of the rhetoric of protection in a pair of 1.20 EUR / CHF. However, the regulator is unlikely to change its position until such time as there is no new official was appointed head of the Bank - as long as the most likely candidate on this chair is Mr. Jordan.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

Last year, the intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs.
Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

Earlier this week it became known that the SNB will tighten control over personal transactions: the new rules which come into force from May 1, suggest quarterly reporting guidelines SNB.

In particular, we are talking about personal transactions.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q / q (1.3% y / y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y.

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar sales increased

In the forex currency market Australian dollar in the middle of the week remained under selling pressure.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, and decreased signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is returned to the drawdown in the neutral zone, indicating a similar way. Key Middle Ichimoku indicator showed touch, expect a signal to sell the currency pair.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0430 the pair will go to 1.0410 and 1.0390.

Sales of Australian dollar in the middle of the week because of the increased interest in reducing the risk to investors.

Australian dollar earlier in the week regain the publication of weak data on the Chinese economy, which came out below expectations - in particular, we are talking about the levels of exports and the size of the trade deficit. As China's largest trading partner of Australia, the Aussie is actively responding to statistics from the Middle Kingdom.

RBA meeting last week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand
Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m / m (-14.6% y / y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household.
However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% qoq. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen is still weak

The Japanese yen in the forex currency market continued to bargain with the weakening on Wednesday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 83.70 pair will go to 83.80 and 84.00.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q / q (-0.7% y / y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled-Y437, the forecast of 3 billion + Y322, 3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q / q with growth forecast at 0.3% q / q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.

At a meeting of the Bank of Japan, all remained the same: the controller has kept interest rates in the range of 0-0.1% per annum, refusing to be reviewed and the amount of the asset repurchase program.

At the moment the asset repurchase program of 30 billion yen, it was extended only a month earlier to 10 billion yen. This time the government once again urged the BOJ to extend QE, but the bank has not taken such a decision.

The Bank of Japan explained that the extension is now engaged in lending programs to stimulate economic growth to 3.5 trillion yen from 3 trillion yen previously.

In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro remains under pressure

The EUR/USD in the forex currency market remains under pressure on Thursday morning.
By 9.00 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3033 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3031.

In the Asian session the pair went to the border of the figure, but to break down the 1.30 is not yet possible. While the sympathies of the market on the side of the U.S.
dollar - largely due to the stable performance of its economy. Today in the afternoon are expected to publish data on the labor market in the U.S., and if the statistics will be strong, it again will support USD.

In general, market sentiment remained gloomy.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD will auction without going beyond the range of 1.2980-1.3090 on Thursday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound is corrected

In the forex currency market rate of the pound sterling closed trading Thursday increasing in the correction.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and begins to signal a buy.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5730 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5740 and 1.5760. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

After serving an unpleasant statistics This week the pound down to the area of local minima in the light of what was attractive to buy.

Unemployment rate in February was 5.0%, while the number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand weakness of the labor sector to prevent recovery of the economy as a whole.

Previously, the January data on the balance of foreign trade reached above the December level.

However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y/y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m/m (-3.8% g / g).

The index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y/y).

Past the last Thursday meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy.

According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England, the annual inflation expectations in February amounted to 3.5% from the November estimate of 4.1%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc decided not to weaken

Swiss franc is the forex currency market trading held a promotion on Thursday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, moved to the lateral movement and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator is overbought and still buy signal.

Forex recommendations: 0.9240 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9250 and 0.9270. Consolidation likely near the current values.

Three-month Libor rate of the Swiss National Bank remained unchanged at 0%. In general, the opinion of the SNB's monetary policy remained the same - only the changed outlook for the economy.

Thus, the regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 range from -0.6% to +0.6%, while GDP growth this year will be at around 1.0%.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y/y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y/y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y.

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

Last year, the intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs.
Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).