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[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc is traded without clear idea again

At the Forex currency market Swiss franc closed the previous day lower, reflecting the mood of investors in global capital markets.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought area, sell signals.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of 0.9190 the USD/CHF will go to 0.9180 and 0.9150. We estimate consolidation near the current levels.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y/y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y/y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y/y
According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

The intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs in last year.
Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.

Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro strengthens on Greek expectations

The EUR/USD is trading with an increase in the currency market (forex) on Tuesday morning.

By 8:40 Moscow time euro is worth 1.3177 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3154.

Euro / dollar is rising on the information that the EU finance ministers agreed in principle the process of lending to Greece, and today is going to come back for the final discussion of this issue.

In the afternoon session is expected the U.S. Federal Reserve, which will decide on interest rates and announced some of the expectations about the economic outlook.

For more nervous making the issue with Spain, which has already pointed out the need for a rapid reduction in the levels of budget deficits.

Most likely, the EUR/USD trading on Tuesday will not leave the range of 1.3090-1.3240.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: New Zealand dollar sales do not cease

At the Forex currency market Course of New Zealand dollar remains under scrutiny sellers at the beginning of the week.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD falls in the positive area and points of sale. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone grows and gives a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: out of the market: in case of breakdown at 0.8170 the pair will go to 0.8160 and 0.8090. Consolidation is possible around current levels.

Level's resistance passes through at 0.8290. Current levels are comfortable for sales.
Moving averages of Ichimoku indicator formed a touching, we look for a sell signal.

The index of business activity in the services sector grew in January, BNZ to 53.6 points against prior expectations of 50.9 points. The components of the report showed that an increase was recorded in four of the five components of the index, as the main catalyst for the growth of new companies have orders. Employment in the sector rose to 54.2 points, which is a maximum in November 2007.

REINZ house prices in January fell by 1.4% m/m (25.2% y/y) versus prior expectations drawdown of 0.1% m/m The rate of unemployment in the IV quarter of 2011 decreased to 6.3% against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. These are positive, which means that the sector of employment as one of the main supports of the economy will be able to guarantee stability even under pessimistic external influence.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected. The comments RBNZ noted that currently sees no reason to revise the level of rates.

Last week’s statistics showed that in New Zealand Activity in the manufacturing sector in the IV quarter grew by 1.3% against 1.4% fall previously. The data support the currency.

According to data published previously in New Zealand's export prices in the IV quarter rose 1.7% q/q against the Level III quarter -4.0%. Import prices for this reporting period increased by 3.2% q/q decrease against the previous 3.4%.

The index of service sector activity fell in December to 50.6 points (-5.6 points). The trade balance in December was +NZ$338 million against the value of the November -NZ$307 million, but a positive indicator that the price has already been laid. In New Zealand's GDP in the III quarter grew by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) vs. 0.6% q/q. GDP in the II quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.5% y/y) versus the first quarter of levels of 0.9% q / q (+1.6% y/y).

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen is not very active

At the Forex currency market Japanese yen has losses slightly higher, but so far the overall trend is not broken in the beginning of the week.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 82.30 pair will go to 82.50 and 82.70.

Macroeconomic environment is remained stable in Japan.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled -Y437, the forecast of 3 billion +Y322,3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q/q with growth forecast at 0.3% q/q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.

In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

Recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the rate of unemployment in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y/y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound is again under sale

At the Forex currency market trading of the British Pound Sterling closed Monday’s trading drawdown.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator falls slightly in the neutral zone, approaching to oversold area, and generates the same signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5630 GBP / USD the pair will go to 1.5620 and 1.5590. Consolidation is most likely around current levels.

Investors lose interest in risky assets - while the market does not appear new trading ideas.

The index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP in February was on the value of -29 points.
Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

Last Thursday’s Meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England's annual inflation expectations amounted to 3.5% in February from the November’s estimate of 4.1%.

However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y / y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m / m (-3.8% y / y).

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc remains in the trading channel

At the Forex currency market Swiss franc is traded with increasing. The pair has walked within the range 0,9070-0,9218 during five sessions a couple.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought area, sell signals.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of 0.9160 the USD/CHF will go to 0.9150 and 0.9120. We estimate consolidation near the current levels.

Earlier this week it became known that SNB will tighten control over personal transactions: new rules, which come into force from May 1, suggest quarterly reporting guidelines SNB.

In particular, we are talking about personal transactions.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y/y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y/y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y/y.

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

The intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs in last year.
Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar continues to be sold

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is returned to the drawdown in the neutral zone, indicating a similar way. Key Moving Average of Ichimoku indicator showed a touching. We expect a signal to sell the currency pair.

Forex recommendations: if the level 1.0490 keeps the pair will go to 1.0480 and 1.0450.

Australian dollar came under pressure after publication of weakness Chinese economy, which came out below expectations - in particular, we are talking about the levels of exports and the size of the trade deficit. As China's largest trading partner of Australia, the Aussie is actively responding to statistics from the Middle Kingdom.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand
Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m/m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household.
Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

RBA meeting this week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

In this earlier AUD upset because of the statements of China, and later added a negative GDP statistics for the IV quarter of last year, which was less than half of the forecast.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound is trading at a higher

In the forex currency market rate of the pound sterling have losses after failing with an increase in the area of local minima on Tuesday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is oversold, and a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5710 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5680 and 1.5650. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

After the collapse of the pound in the area of local minima to the level of 1.5601 currency rebounded as trade mark looked quite optimistic. In addition, daily data for the January balance of trade in goods reached above the December level.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England's annual inflation expectations in February amounted to 3.5% from the November estimate of 4.1%.

However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y/y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m/m (-3.8% y/y).

The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y/y).

Past the last Thursday meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc again decided on the direction of motion

In the forex currency market Swiss franc traded lower on Tuesday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, moved to the lateral movement and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and gives a sell signal is returned in the overbought zone.

Forex recommendations: 0.9210 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9220 and 0.9250. Consolidation likely near the current values.

In terms of macro the situation in the Swiss economy is stable.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m / m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y.

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

Last year, the intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs.
Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

Earlier this week it became known that the SNB will tighten control over personal transactions: the new rules which come into force from May 1, suggest quarterly reporting guidelines SNB.

In particular, we are talking about personal transactions.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen weakness persists

In the forex currency market rate of the Japanese yen continued to bargain with a decrease after a short pause on Tuesday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 82.70 pair will go to 82.80 and 83.00.

At a meeting of the Bank of Japan, all remained the same: the controller has kept interest rates in the range of 0-0.1% per annum, refusing to be reviewed and the amount of the asset repurchase program.

At the moment the asset repurchase program of 30 billion yen, it was extended only a month earlier to 10 billion yen. This time the government once again urged the BOJ to extend QE, but the bank has not taken such a decision.

The Bank of Japan explained that the extension is now engaged in lending programs to stimulate economic growth to 3.5 trillion yen from 3 trillion yen previously.

The market reacted to news of the fall, the yen strengthened temporarily, but later retreated.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q / q (-0.7% y / y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled-Y437, the forecast of 3 billion + Y322, 3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q / q with growth forecast at 0.3% q / q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.

In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.