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[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound sold on Friday

British pound sterling in the Forex currency market on the downside on Friday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator is growing in the neutral zone and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios for the development of trading on the forex: the breakdown of 1.5800 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5820 and 1.5830. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

Elapsed before the meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

The index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc is trading without a definite idea

At the Forex currency market Swiss franc traded without clear direction on Friday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought area, sell signals.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of 0.9110 the USD/CHF will go to 0.9120 and 0.9130. Consolidation likely near the current values.

The intervention cost the Swiss National Bank to 17.8 billion francs in last year.
Commenting on this information, Mr. Jordan of the SNB said that limiting the growth of the franc had an impact on the market and help stabilize the results of the year.

Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.

Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m/m (-0.8% y/y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.3% y/y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y/y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y/y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y/y.

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen continues to weaken

At the Forex currency market the Japanese yen trading on the downside on Friday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 81.70 pair will go to 81.80 and 82.00.

Yesterday's statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled -Y437, the forecast of 3 billion +Y322,3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q/q with growth forecast at 0.3% q/q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.

In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the rate of unemployment in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y/y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar is set to rise

At the Forex currency market Australian dollar trading with a moderate increase on Friday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic oscillator starts to grow in the neutral zone, signaling purchases.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0630 the pair will go to 1.0640 and 1.0650.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand
Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m/m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

RBA meeting this week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

In this earlier AUD upset because of the statements of China, and later added a negative GDP statistics for the IV quarter of last year, which was less than half of the forecast.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: New Zealand dollar is stable at the end of the week

At the Forex currency market New Zealand dollar is trading sluggish on Friday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD falls in the positive area and points of sale. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone grows and gives a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of the level 0.8240 the pair will go to 0.8250 and 0.8260. Possible consolidation with the current values.

Previous statistics showed that in New Zealand Activity in the manufacturing sector in the IV quarter grew by 1.3% against 1.4% fall previously. The data support the currency.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected. The comments RBNZ noted that currently sees no reason to revise the level of rates.

The index of service sector activity fell in December to 50.6 points (-5.6 points). The trade balance in December was +NZ$338 million against the value of the November -NZ$307 million, but a positive indicator that the price has already been laid. In New Zealand's GDP in the III quarter grew by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) vs. 0.6% q/q. GDP in the II quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.5% y/y) versus the first quarter of levels of 0.9% q / q (+1.6% y/y). Thus, in the New Zealand economy, there was virtually stagnant: GDP growth has almost stopped, and later revived. Rather, the data of IV quarter will be weaker.

REINZ house prices in January fell by 1.4% m/m (25.2% y/y) versus prior expectations drawdown of 0.1% m/m The rate of unemployment in the IV quarter of 2011 decreased to 6.3% against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. These are positive, which means that the sector of employment as one of the main supports of the economy will be able to guarantee stability even under pessimistic external influence.

According to data published previously in New Zealand's export prices in the IV quarter rose 1.7% q/q against the Level III quarter -4.0%. Import prices for this reporting period increased by 3.2% q/q decrease against the previous 3.4%.

The index of business activity in the services sector grew in January, BNZ to 53.6 points against prior expectations of 50.9 points. The components of the report showed that an increase was recorded in four of the five components of the index, as the main catalyst for the growth of new companies have orders. Employment in the sector rose to 54.2 points, which is a maximum in November 2007.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar is weak

At the Forex currency market Australian dollar trading with a moderate reduction on Monday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic oscillator starts to grow in the neutral zone, signaling purchases. Key Moving Average of Ichimoku indicator showed a touching. We expect a signal to sell the currency pair.

Forex recommendations: if the level 1.0680 keeps the pair will go to 1.0540 and 1.0500.

RBA meeting this week ended with a neutral: the interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

In this earlier AUD upset because of the statements of China, and later added a negative GDP statistics for the IV quarter of last year, which was less than half of the forecast.

Previous statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the five thousand
Such data may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m/m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household.

However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index. Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: New Zealand dollar continues to decline

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD falls in the positive area and points of sale. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone grows and gives a buy signal.
Forex recommendations: out of the market.

Possible scenarios in the forex: the breakdown of the level 0.8210 the pair will go to 0.8140 and 0.8090. Possible consolidation with the current values.

Level's resistance passes through at 0.8290. Current levels are comfortable for sales.
Moving averages of Ichimoku indicator formed a touching, look for a sell signal.

Last week’s statistics showed that in New Zealand Activity in the manufacturing sector in the IV quarter grew by 1.3% against 1.4% fall previously. The data support the currency.

According to data published previously in New Zealand's export prices in the IV quarter rose 1.7% q/q against the Level III quarter -4.0%. Import prices for this reporting period increased by 3.2% q/q decrease against the previous 3.4%.

The index of business activity in the services sector grew in January, BNZ to 53.6 points against prior expectations of 50.9 points. The components of the report showed that an increase was recorded in four of the five components of the index, as the main catalyst for the growth of new companies have orders. Employment in the sector rose to 54.2 points, which is a maximum in November 2007.

REINZ house prices in January fell by 1.4% m/m (25.2% y/y) versus prior expectations drawdown of 0.1% m/m The rate of unemployment in the IV quarter of 2011 decreased to 6.3% against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. These are positive, which means that the sector of employment as one of the main supports of the economy will be able to guarantee stability even under pessimistic external influence.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected. The comments RBNZ noted that currently sees no reason to revise the level of rates.

The index of service sector activity fell in December to 50.6 points (-5.6 points). The trade balance in December was +NZ$338 million against the value of the November -NZ$307 million, but a positive indicator that the price has already been laid. In New Zealand's GDP in the III quarter grew by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) vs. 0.6% q/q. GDP in the II quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.5% y/y) versus the first quarter of levels of 0.9% q / q (+1.6% y/y). Thus, in the New Zealand economy, there was virtually stagnant: GDP growth has almost stopped, and later revived. Rather, the data of IV quarter will be weaker.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound was closed by massive sales last week

At the Forex currency market trading of the British Pound Sterling was ended by massive sales on Friday.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator falls slightly in the neutral zone, approaching to oversold area, and generates the same signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 1.5670 GBP / USD the pair will go to 1.5660 and 1.5630. Most likely will be consolidation at current levels.

According to the GFK NOP and the Bank of England's annual inflation expectations amounted to 3.5% in February from the November’s estimate of 4.1%.

However, in the final of last week, the mood of the pound spoiled other factors: the volume of production in the construction sector in January fell by 2.3% y / y, while industrial output in January dipped by 0.4% m / m (-3.8% g / g).

The index of consumer sentiment GFK/NOP in February was on the value of -29 points.
Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

Elapsed before the meeting of the Bank of England showed preservation of the split opinions in the IFA. Interest rate left unchanged at 0.5% per annum, as well as the amount of QE. In February, QE asset repurchase program increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro looks down again

The EUR/USD on Monday’s morning in the Forex market trading on the downside.
By 9.50 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3080 against the level of the close of Friday’s trading at 1.3114.

The main reason of new sales in the morning was published statistics: trade deficit of the country was at the peak of 2000 in February, but export levels rose last month up to 18.4%, though economists expected more substantial building.

In addition, this week, investors will wait for the final decision of the EU by Greece, which also adds some nervousness in the market.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD trading will not leave the range of 1.3050-1.3150 today.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen once again under pressure

At the Forex currency market the Japanese yen was closed by sales on Friday's trading.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is growing again and the buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 82.40 pair will go to 82.50 and 82.70.

Japan's macroeconomic was background quiet at Monday morning.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

Recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the rate of unemployment in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y/y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

Previous statistics showed that real GDP revised in the IV quarter was -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y). In addition, the current account balance in the IV quarter totaled -Y437, the forecast of 3 billion +Y322,3 billion, while private consumption in the last quarter grew by 0.4% q/q with growth forecast at 0.3% q/q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory. The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.

In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.