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[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc is ready to continue the retreat

At the Forex currency market Swiss franc trading slightly higher, while remaining under pressure.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is entered in the overbought region, keeping in place a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: 0.9180 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9200 and 0.9220. Consolidation is near of current values.

The market is in limbo because of the situation with Greece and investors are clearly moving away from risk.

According to data released today in the Swiss unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q / q (1.3% y / y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y.

According to the SNB, Mr. Jordan, the situation in Europe is causing serious concern, although the difficulties associated with the debt crisis can be overcome. He noted that first of all need to reduce budget costs - further anti-crisis measures will work themselves. Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m / m (-0.8% y / y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m / m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009. Dear Franc seriously harm the economy: in the beginning, the value of imports of consumer goods fell by 1.8% m / m (-3.2% y / y), but the Swiss domestic goods production rose 0.1% m / m in the price. Thus, the threat of deflation is becoming very apparent to Switzerland. Expectations ZEW index in February increased to -21.2 points against the January value of -50.1 points.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m). These are not too positive, especially as export levels have gone back to the minus.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen once again in demand

At the Forex currency market the Japanese yen trading with the increase in response to the volatile mood of the players in global capital markets.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought and selling signals.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 80.70 pair will go to 80.60 and 80.50.

The situation in the yen remains the same, with the only difference being that now in favor of the "Japanese" is the desire of investors to withdraw from the market risk associated with Greece.

Statistics showed Friday that the recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the rate of unemployment in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y / y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

The representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Kamedzaki, in case of falling confidence in Japanese government bonds will no longer serve as a safe asset. The politician believes that the regulator should take preventive steps to avoid such a scenario.

In general, the comments the previous week was the Bank of Japan have launched sales of "Japanese." During the last meeting of the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.1% per annum, but an unexpected move for the markets: increased volume of asset repurchase program from the market to 65 trillion yen from the previous level of 55 trillion yen. The decision was unanimous, as the other - a program of purchase of long-term bonds was increased from Y9 trillion to Y19 trillion. In addition, the Central Bank surprised the market again - he said that he considers it expedient to establish target for inflation on the value of 1%, as economic forecasts look extremely hazy.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar is trying to recover

At the Forex currency market Australian dollar attempt to grow in the middle of the week after a decline in the Asian session.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic Oscillator falls into the neutral zone, signaling a sell.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0570 the pair will go to 1.0550 and 1.0520.

The meeting ended with a neutral before the RBA: Interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

At the same time before the AUD was upset by the statements of China, today added a negative GDP statistics for the IV quarter of last year, which was less than half of the forecast.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m / m vs. capacity by 0.2% m / m (-14.6% y / y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

According to previous published statistics in Australia in the IV quarter of the index of wage growth has increased - by 1.0% qoq growth against the previous 0.7%. In yoy increase of 3.6%. Past indicators have shown that Australia's housing sector lending in December increased by 2.4% while the forecast to strengthen to 1.8%.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% qoq. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m / m with growth forecast at 0.2%. First published statistics indicate that Australia's index of activity in the manufacturing industry in January, according to calculations AI GROUP, rose by 1.4%, to 51.6 points.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro awaits decision on Greece

The EUR/USD in the Forex market trading slightly higher on Thursday morning.

By 9.55 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3176 against the close of trading yesterday at 1.3147.

Investors again start to buy the pair, as the hope for a favorable resolution of the issue with the Greek debt. By the end of the day today to Athens to collect at least 67% of investors who are willing to voluntarily participate in the PSI.

This day will be filled as statistics and other important events: in the afternoon a meeting of the ECB and the Bank of England, the afternoon will be published statistics on the labor market in the U.S.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD trading will not leave the range of 1.3110-1.3230 on Thursday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound recovers

British pound sterling in the Forex currency market on Thursday continued a modest recovery.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in positive territory, moving sideways and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator is reduced in the neutral zone and indicates sales.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5760 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5750 and 1.5730. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

Today, the British pound is waiting for the outcome of the meeting and the Bank of England decision on interest rates.

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

Recall that a regular meeting of February the Bank of England asset-repurchase program QE increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds. As commented on the decision by Mr. Osborne, the increase in QE will help to achieve the inflation target (2% official target, and it has not changed about two years). According to him, the current monetary policy remains the primary tool for response to economic changes, and analysis of the Bank of England shows the effectiveness of QE.

The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc gradually strengthened

At the Forex currency market Swiss franc on Thursday with a slight increase in the external background quiet.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the negative zone, rises and gives a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is entered in the overbought region, keeping in place a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: 0.9160 in the breakdown of the USD/CHF will go to 0.9170 and 0.9190. Consolidation likely near the current values.

The rate of the franc back to growth once the external background is stabilized.

According to data released on the eve, Switzerland unemployment rate in February was 3.4% - changes here are not observed.

GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q / q (1.3% y / y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points. Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y
According to the SNB, Mr. Jordan, the situation in Europe is causing serious concern, although the difficulties associated with the debt crisis can be overcome. He noted that first of all need to reduce budget costs - further anti-crisis measures will work themselves. Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.

Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.
Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m / m (-0.8% y / y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m / m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009.

The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m).

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen weakens again

At the Forex currency market the Japanese yen on Thursday morning returned to the weakening.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the USD/JPY rising in the positive zone and keeps in place a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is out of the overbought and selling signals.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level of 81.40 pair will go to 81.50 and 81.60.

Today came the following data on the Japanese economy:

- Real GDP in the revised IV quarter amounted to 0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y);

- Current account balance in the IV quarter totaled -Y437,3 billion at the forecast +Y322,3 billion;

- Personal consumption in the IV quarter grew by 0.4% q/q with growth forecast at 0.3% q/q.

Note that the GDP was still revised upward, although it remains in negative territory.
The trade balance in a country still in a fragile state.

In addition, the index of economic observers in February in Japan fell to 45.9 points vs. 46 points.

Previous statistics showed that the recovery in the Land of the Rising Sun is not easy: the unemployment rate in January was 4.6%, which coincided with the predictions. The process of creating jobs in Japan fraught with difficulties - in September the rate was 4.2%, reaching 4.5% by December. Employment in January decreased by 350 thousand (-0.6%). However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y/y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Shirakawa said earlier that the regulator intends to mitigate the monetary policy as long as inflation does not reach the target of 1%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian dollar rises on Thursday

At the Forex currency market Australian dollar on Thursday morning is growing as increasing interest among investors for risk.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the AUD/USD is in the positive zone, falls and forms a signal to sell. Stochastic oscillator starts to grow in the neutral zone, signaling purchases.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 1.0610 the pair will go to 1.0620 and 1.0650.

Morning statistics showed that the rate of unemployment in the country in January was 5.2% vs. 5.1% previously. At the same time the number of employed decreased by 15.4 thousand, while the projected growth in the 5 thousand.

Such statistics may be in the next month to become an occasion to review the level of interest rates in the RBA.

The meeting ended with a neutral before the RBA: Interest rate kept unchanged at 4.25% per annum, the comments of the Bank of Stevens were also fairly standard. He noted that while the state of the Australian economy can keep monetary policy unchanged.

At the same time before the AUD was upset by the statements of China, today added a negative GDP statistics for the IV quarter of last year, which was less than half of the forecast.

Index of manufacturing activity fell in February AiG to 51.3 points against prior expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, the number of building permits in January rose 0.9% m/m vs. capacity by 0.2% m/m (-14.6% y/y). The composite index of service sector activity in January AiG rose to 51.9 points (2.9 points) against the growth of the previous month by 1.3 points. The index increases the third consecutive month, with the main increase in activity occurred in areas directly related to the household. However, in the comments AiG notes that the revival of the index revealed only 3 of the nine components of the index.

Inflation in the IV quarter showed zero growth in the country at the forecast to strengthen by 0.4% q/q. Retail sales in December fell by 0.1% m/m with growth forecast at 0.2%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: New Zealand dollar positions restored

At the Forex currency market New Zealand dollar on Thursday is growing.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair NZD/USD falls in the positive area and points of sale. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone grows and gives a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of the level 0.8220 the pair will go to 0.8230 and 0.8250.

Today's statistics showed that in New Zealand Activity in the manufacturing sector in the IV quarter grew by 1.3% against 1.4% fall previously. The data support the currency.

In addition, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected. The comments RBNZ noted that currently sees no reason to revise the level of rates.

According to previous statistical data, in New Zealand's export prices in the IV quarter rose 1.7% q/q against the Level III quarter -4.0%. Import prices for this reporting period increased by 3.2% q/q decrease against the previous 3.4%.

The index of service sector activity fell in December to 50.6 points (-5.6 points). The trade balance in December was +NZ$338 million against the value of the November -NZ$307 million, but a positive indicator that the price has already been laid. In New Zealand's GDP in the III quarter grew by 0.8% q/q (+1.9% y/y) vs. 0.6% q/q. GDP in the II quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q/q (1.5% y/y) versus the first quarter of levels of 0.9% q / q (+1.6% y/y). Thus, in the New Zealand economy, there was virtually stagnant: GDP growth has almost stopped, and later revived. Rather, the data of IV quarter will be weaker.

REINZ house prices in January fell by 1.4% m/m (+25.2% y/y) versus prior expectations drawdown of 0.1% m/m The rate of unemployment in the IV quarter of 2011 decreased to 6.3% against the level of 6.6% a quarter earlier. These are positive, which means that the sector of employment as one of the main supports of the economy will be able to guarantee stability even under pessimistic external influence.

The index of business activity in the services sector grew in January, BNZ to 53.6 points against prior expectations of 50.9 points. The components of the report showed that an increase was recorded in four of the five components of the index, as the main catalyst for the growth of new companies have orders. Employment in the sector rose to 54.2 points, which is a maximum in November 2007.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro is corrected in the final week

The EUR/USD on Friday morning in the Forex market trading on the downside.

By 10.15 Moscow time the euro is worth 1.3226 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3266.

The European Central Bank left before the interest rate unchanged at 1% per annum, in the comments pointed out that in the euro area show signs of stabilization.

According to the news, on the eve of expiration for Greece managed to win more than 85% willing to exchange bond investors.

The IMF also noted before that the final decision on allocation of the second package of financial aid to Greece to discuss on March 15.

Most likely, the pair EUR/USD trading will not leave the range of 1.3170-1.3250 on Friday.