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[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen returned to the weakening

At the Forex currency market the Japanese yen is still under pressure from sellers' side and is weakening, closing the week in negative territory.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is going up in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.90 the pair will go to 82.00 and 82.20.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr.Shirakawa said today that the regulator is going to continue monetary easing policy until inflations reaches targeted 1%.

Representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Kamedzski believes that in case of loss of confidence, Japanese government bonds will not be able to act as safe assets. The politician thinks that the regulator shall take preventive steps to avoid such a scenario.

In general, these were comments of the Bank of Japan that triggered sales of JPY. At the meeting this week, the Bank of Japan left interest rate at the level of 0.1% per annum; however the Bank has made a step, unexpected for the market increasing volume of the asset repurchase program to 65 trillion yen versus 55 trillion yen previously. This decision was unanimous, as well as the other one: program of purchases of long-term bonds was expanded to Y19 trillion from Y9 trillion. In addition, Central Bank surprised market again, by stating that according to the bank it will be reasonable to set inflation target at 1%, as economic forecasts are extremely hazy. It was Bank's view on the CPI target that forced the market to revise trading strategies for the Yen.

Radical measures of the Central Bank are just a continued reaction to statistics: GDP in Japan fell by2.3% y/y in Q4 2011, since European crisis and slowdown in the globaleconomic rate have prevented recovery after natural disaster.

Friday's statistics released that economic recovery process in the country of the Rising Sun is complicated: unemployment rate amounted to 4,6% in January which agreed with the forecast. Job creation process in Japan is complex as well: unemployment rate amounted to 4.2% in September and reached 4.5% in December. Employment fell by 350 thousand in January (-0.6%).

However, other indexes show that financial infusion of the Bank of Japan into economy has had its effect. According to statistics released in the morning, capital expenditures rose by7.6% y/y in Q4 against the forecast of decline of 6.4% and preliminary expectations of -9.8%. The data showed the highest increase since 2007, which is more than favourable for the global outlooks of the Japanese economy.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian dollar is being under the gun

Australian dollar, being under sellers' gun along with other profitable currencies, demonstrated sales on closing last Friday at the Forex currency market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the positive area, it goes down and is shaping a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator reverses in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0720 the pair will go to 1.0700 and 1.0680.

Macro-economic situation in Australia is stable in the beginning of the current week.

It became known yesterday that index of industrial activity AiG in Australia fell by 51.3 points in February against preliminary expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, number of permits to construct rose by 0.9% m/m in January against the forecast of growth of 0.2%m/m (-14.6% y/y).

Aggregate activity index Aig in the service sector increased to 51.9 points in January (+2.9 points) against growth of 1.3 points a month earlier. The index has been growing for the third month in a row, while major growth in activity is associated with households. Nevertheless, AiG noted in the comments, that revival in the index is evident only in three out of nine components.

Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales in January fell by 0.1% m/m against forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that activity index in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.4% in January, up to 51.6points, as per AI GROUP estimates.

According to statistics released earlier, index of wages rise has increased by 1.0% on quarterly basis in Q4against the previous growth of 0.7%. Growth amounted to 3.6% on annual basis. Statistics released earlier showed that lending in the housing sector of Australia rose by 2.4% in December against the forecast of growth of 1.8%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro selling in anticipation of Statistics

The EUR/USD on Tuesday morning in the Forex market trading on the downside.

By 8.30 Moscow time the euro is at 1.3194 against the level of the close of trading yesterday at 1.3220.

The market is still no new drivers for traffic, especially since the risks of Greece remain strong, and the peripheral countries in the eurozone only add bad news.

In addition, investors are waiting for the publication of data on Eurozone GDP for the fourth quarter of 2011 - it is expected that the rate fell to 0.3%. If the forecast is justified, it would mean an immersion of the region into recession.

Thus, while the mood of the players play against the euro.

Most likely, the EUR/USD trading on Tuesday will not leave the range of 1.3140-1.3260.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound went into a plus

British pound sterling in the Forex currency market trading closed on Monday growth.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in positive territory, moving sideways and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator is reduced in the neutral zone and indicates sales.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5860 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5850 and 1.5830. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

Data from the British service in February were unimpressive: the index of PMI / CIPS dipped to 53.8 points versus 56.0 points of the January values and expectations of 55 points. In this part of the report were quite good: in the field of business expectations of an upturn.
Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."
The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

Recall that a regular meeting of February the Bank of England asset-repurchase program QE increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds. As commented on the decision by Mr. Osborne, the increase in QE will help to achieve the inflation target (2% official target, and it has not changed about two years). According to him, the current monetary policy remains the primary tool for response to economic changes, and analysis of the Bank of England shows the effectiveness of QE.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc to grow back after a break

At the Forex currency market Swiss franc is the first trading day of the week behaved quite calmly, finishing in the "green" zone in the wake of a general recovery.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and is moving along the signal line again, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is entered in the overbought region, keeping in place a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9120 the USD/CHF will go to 0.9130 and 0.9150. Consolidation is near of current values.

The behavior of the franc on Monday, is easily explained: in the afternoon, the market relied on the strong American statistics, which gave a growing momentum.

Swiss National Bank, meanwhile, still maintains neutrality in the conduct of the franc.

Statistics showed Monday that the real retail sales in January rose 4.4% y / y in January, compared to growth of 1.7% y / y
GDP in the IV quarter of the country grew by 0.1% q / q (1.3% y / y) vs. zero change (+1.1% y / y). These are very good - it means that the Swiss economy is getting used to expensive franc. Production sector in Switzerland is still weak, but shows a tendency to recovery - in February, the index of manufacturing activity rose to 49.0 SVME points against the forecast of 48.5 points.

According to the SNB, Mr. Jordan, the situation in Europe is causing serious concern, although the difficulties associated with the debt crisis can be overcome. He noted that first of all need to reduce budget costs - further anti-crisis measures will work themselves. Earlier, the acting head of the SNB Jordan drew attention that the regulator intends to firmly defend the mark of 1.20 in the euro / franc, and is ready to take additional measures, if required by the economic situation. He also confirmed that this year the Swiss economy will slow, although there is no risk of inflation. Frank, in his words, is still too strong and in need of cost reduction.
The trade balance in January was -1.553 billion francs vs. -2.50 billion francs. The components of the report show that exports last month fell by 3.4% against the preliminary assessment of growth by 6.1% while imports increased by 3.6% (preliminary forecast of 7.6% m / m). These are not too positive, especially as export levels have gone back to the minus.

Inflation in January fell by 0.4% m / m (-0.8% y / y) against expectations of drawdown of 0.2% m / m This is the fourth consecutive drop in the indicator, which has both the highest drop since October 2009. Dear Franc seriously harm the economy: in the beginning, the value of imports of consumer goods fell by 1.8% m / m (-3.2% y / y), but the Swiss domestic goods production rose 0.1% m / m in the price. Thus, the threat of deflation is becoming very apparent to Switzerland. Expectations ZEW index in February increased to -21.2 points against the January value of -50.1 points.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen was little chance to recoup

At the Forex currency market the Japanese yen gains on Monday closed the session, interrupting once again to weaken the currency.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is going up in the positive area for the pair USD/JPY and maintains a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 81.50 pair will go to 81.60 and 81.80.

The beginning of the week did not bring the new statistics in Japan.

Friday's statistics released that economic recovery process in the country of the Rising Sun is complicated: unemployment rate amounted to 4,6% in January which agreed with the forecast. Job creation process in Japan is complex as well: unemployment rate amounted to 4.2% in September and reached 4.5% in December. Employment fell by 350 thousand in January (-0.6%).

However, other indicators show that the financial investments of the Bank of Japan's economy is not in vain: capital spending in the fourth quarter rose 7.6% y / y at the forecast drawdown of 6.4% and -9.8% prior expectations. The data show the maximum gain from the beginning of 2007, and the global perspective of Japanese economic data from more than positive.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr.Shirakawa said today that the regulator is going to continue monetary easing policy until inflations reaches targeted 1%.

The representative of the Bank of Japan Mr. Kamedzaki, in case of falling confidence in Japanese government bonds will no longer serve as a safe asset. The politician believes that the regulator should take preventive steps to avoid such a scenario.
In general, the comments the previous week was the Bank of Japan have launched sales of "Japanese." At the meeting last week, Bank of Japan kept interest rates at 0.1% per annum, but an unexpected move for the markets: increased volume of asset repurchase program from the market to 65 trillion yen from the previous level of 55 trillion yen. The decision was unanimous, as the other - a program of purchase of long-term bonds was increased from Y9 trillion to Y19 trillion. In addition, the Central Bank surprised the market again - he said that he considers it expedient to establish target for inflation on the value of 1%, as economic forecasts look extremely hazy. It is the opinion of the Bank's target of CPI and caused the market to revise their trading strategies in the yen.

Drastic steps securities were the continuation of the reaction at the statistics - in Japan for the fourth quarter 2011 GDP fell by 2.3% y / y, as the system recovery after a natural disaster prevented the European crisis and global economic deceleration.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar is sold

At the Forex currency market Australian dollar had been continued to sell in anticipation of RBA meeting on Monday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD is in the positive area, it goes down and is shaping a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator reverses in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0660 the pair will go to 1.0650 and 1.0610.

The market waits for the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia and comments regarding the economic outlook as well as by level of interest rate. Index of industrial activity AiG in Australia fell by 51.3 points in February against preliminary expectations of 51.6 points. In addition, number of permits to construct rose by 0.9% m/m in January against the forecast of growth of 0.2%m/m (-14.6% y/y).

Aggregate activity index Aig in the service sector increased to 51.9 points in January (+2.9 points) against growth of 1.3 points a month earlier. The index has been growing for the third month in a row, while major growth in activity is associated with households. Nevertheless, AiG noted in the comments, that revival in the index is evident only in three out of nine components.

Inflation in the country showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales in January fell by 0.1% m/m against forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that activity index in the manufacturing sector rose by 1.4% in January, up to 51.6points, as per AI GROUP estimates.

According to statistics released earlier, index of wages rise has increased by 1.0% on quarterly basis in Q4against the previous growth of 0.7%. Growth amounted to 3.6% on annual basis. Statistics released earlier showed that lending in the housing sector of Australia rose by 2.4% in December against the forecast of growth of 1.8%.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CAD: Canadian dollar continues to retreat

At the Forex currency market Canadian dollar was closed by sales on Monday, while oil prices were being adjusted.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is in the negative area and is going up slightly, giving a buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator pushes away from oversold zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9945 the pair will go to 0.9960 and 0.9970.

The situation is stable in Canada in terms of macroeconomics.

Friday’s statistics showed that, Canada's economic growth slowed down in the IV quarter of 2011 - the real GDP in December up to 0.4% m / m vs. 0.3% m / m, but in general, Canadian economy grew by 0.4% only in the last quarter of previous year against 1.0% in the III quarter. Here affects a strong external influence and the decline of interest to energy in the world last year.

According to the data released earlier, real GDP in Canada fell by0.1% m/m in November (+2.0% y/y) against expectations of 0.2% m/m. New orders in the manufacturing sector fell by 2.8% in December against prior expectations of +3.6%. Number of outstanding orders in this sector fell by 1.6% (versus+1.2% previously); Sales in this sector were low: growth amounted 0.6% in December against expected +1.9%. Leading indicator index rose by 0.8% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.6% m/m.

Current account balance in Canada amounted to -CAD$10.33billion in Q4 against expectations of -CAD$9.6 billion.

Prices for industrial goods in Canada rose by 0.3% in January against the forecast of growth of 0.1%. The CAD has ignored this statistics. Oil prices became the main driver for growth.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney believes that current levels of the rates comply with monetary situation. Recall that in the middle of the week, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market. The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10%-decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption.

CPI fell by 0.6% m/m (+2.3% y/y) in December against the forecast of -0.1% m/m. Despite this obvious fact, the data requires some clarification. Annual growth of CPI has been minimal since February 2011, and inflation reduced due to decline in prices for gasoline and other fuel.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Euro tries to recover

The EUR/USD on Wednesday morning trading on the upside in the Forex market after massive sales of the previous day.

By 08.10 Moscow time the euro is at 1.3134 against the close of trading yesterday at 1.3114.

Wall Street on Tuesday, survived, perhaps, the worst session since the beginning of the year, investors concerned about the continued stress on the issue with Greece, and even the expectation of a strong statistical Friday failed to cheer up the players.

By Wednesday morning the issue with the participation of private capital in the PSI program in Greece is still open, although the Greek side declares the consent of 75-80% of the investors.

Today, it is possible, the voltage at the sites will continue.

Most likely, the EUR/USD trading will not leave the range of 1.3070-1.3190.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound remains in a weak position

British pound sterling in the Forex currency market on Wednesday with a barely noticeable increase in sales after the night before.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the GBP/USD pair remains in positive territory, moving sideways and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator is reduced in the neutral zone and indicates sales.

Forex recommendations: the breakdown of 1.5720 GBP/USD pair will go to 1.5700 and 1.5680. Likely to consolidate at current levels.

The British pound tightly correlated with the euro/dollar, reflecting investors' concerns, pending the issue of persistent tension with Greece.

The index of consumer sentiment GFK / NOP in February was on the value of -29 points. Hometrack house prices in February, unchanged on a monthly basis (-1.4% y / y).

Mr. Miles, a representative of the Bank of England said before, that inflation in Britain will continue to fall, as the catalyst perform job losses and reserve capacity. The policy of quantitative easing, the Bank of England promotes the growth of asset prices and increased demand. Miles found it difficult to assess the impact of the process of asset purchases, but according to him, if not for QE, domestic demand could be seriously affected.

Previously, Mr. Will said that rates could be raised before the controller will turn off incentives. In this Will does not think good idea relaxed attitude to inflation for the sake of stimulating the economy. Recall that in February, has been published minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, which surprised the market. For example, two members of the MPC, Posen and Miles, voted for the expansion of asset repurchase program by 75 billion pounds, while the remaining seven were in favor of monetary policymakers increase in QE by 50 bln in question about the state of interest rates MPC members were unanimous. The minutes noted that some members of the MPC were expressed for an end to further stimulation. The result is that in a purely "pigeon" MRS reappeared its "hawks."

Recall that a regular meeting of February the Bank of England asset-repurchase program QE increased by 50 billion pounds, down to 325 billion pounds. As commented on the decision by Mr. Osborne, the increase in QE will help to achieve the inflation target (2% official target, and it has not changed about two years). According to him, the current monetary policy remains the primary tool for response to economic changes, and analysis of the Bank of England shows the effectiveness of QE.