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[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar is still under pressure from sellers

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate is still under sellers’ pressure on Tuesday, driven by ambiguous position of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into the negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down, and maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator tends to go up in the neutral zone; however buy signal is very weak so far.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0400 the pair will aim to 1.0390 and 1.0370.

A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was the tone of the follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious.

Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized strong negative effect of European influence.

Reserve Bank of Australia stated last week that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company’s management circulated press- release, expressing dissatisfaction with the royalty taxation. The AUD traders were quick to close positions.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Statistics released on Thursday showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-February. Previous statistics demonstrated that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CAD: Canadian Dollar has increased growth rate

At the Forex currency market the Canadian Dollar rate is traded upward today in response to the increased appetite to risk in the market.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD goes up in the negative area and is giving a buy signal; volumes are minimal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9880 the pair will go to 0.9860 and 0.9830. Consolidation at the current levels is probable.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney said yesterday that economic growth in the country is above the forecast and authorities obtain number of ways to protect housing market from overheating. However, monetary policy tools will be applied only as the last resort.

Earlier, Mr. Carney emphasized that current rates are consistent with monetary situation. Recall, that in the middle of the January, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market. The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10% decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption.

Current account balance in Canada amounted to –CAD$10.33 billion in Q4 against expectations of -CAD$9.6 billion. Prices for industrial goods in Canada rose by 0.3% in January against the forecast of growth of 0.1%. Oil prices became the main driver for growth.

Unemployment rate in Canada fell from 7.4% to 7.6% in February, number of jobs declined by 2.8 thousand. It became known earlier that inflation in Canada increased by 0.4% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in February against expectations of growth of 0.5% m/m. At the same time net CPI grew by 0.4% m/m as well. Prices for electric power and food became a catalyst for the rise in inflation levels.

Average weekly earnings in the country rose by 0.6% m/m (+2.0% y/y in January.

According to the data released last Friday, GDP in Canada rose by 0.1% m/m (+1.75% y/y) in January against revised value of +0.5% m/m (+1.9% y/y), which in general agreed with the forecast. Previous statistics showed that economic growth in Canada slowed down in Q4: real GDP amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.3% m/m. Al in all Canadian economy grew only by 0.4% in the last quarter last year versus +1.0% in Q3. This can be attributed by strong impact of external factors and decreased interest in energy resources at the end of the year.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: Sales in Euro do not subside

The pair EUR/USD is traded downward at the Forex currency market on Wednesday morning.

By 8.50 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3198 against yesterday’s closing level of 1.3232.

The cause for the mass sales was discovered last night. The minutes of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve said that there are fewer of monetary politicians who are in favour of implementation of new program of assets purchase, QE3.

In addition, the minutes stressed that American economy is very susceptible to inflation

Block of European news will be released today including some important statistics, such as the retail sales index in Eurozone for February and some German data. A regular meeting of the European Central Bank will be held today which is unlikely to bring something fundamentally new.

A regular meeting of the European Central Bank will be held today which is unlikely to bring something fundamentally new.

Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not leave the range of 1.3150-1.3260 at the trading session on Wednesday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

British Pound is losing positions

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded downward on Wednesday in response to sharp deterioration of investors’ sentiments at the world capital markets.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD remains in the positive area; it goes up and is giving a buy signal, while volume are increasing. Stochastic Oscillator has reversed in the neutral zone and is going down, indicating sales.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5880, the pair GBP/USD will go to 1.5870 and 1.5850.

Sales in the pair started last night after the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve: investors felt disappointed with the position of monetary politicians who began to give less support to the program QE3.

It became known this week that PMI Markit/CIPS in the manufacturing sector rose to 52.1 points in March against previous revised level of 51.5 points. This data supported currency. The index was at the highest level since May 2011, the main driver of growth was the volume of new orders: 52.7 points against 50.5 points earlier. This index is also maximal -at highs since last March.

Unemployment rate was 5.0% in February, number of unemployed increased by 7.2 thousand. Weak employment sector prevents economic recovery of the country in general.

According to the data released earlier, retail sales in the UK fell by 0.8% m/m (+1.0% y/y) in February. At the same time sales, excluding fuel, decreased for the same amount last month; index of January was revised upward to +0.3% m/m. It seems that weak labour sector and high level of inflation continue to put pressure on the index of retails sales.

On Thursday, 5 April, a regular meeting of the Bank of England will be held. Investors will be interested in the follow-up comments on economic outlook. It will be a short week for the British market, as the local market will be closed on Friday due to Easter celebrations.

Statistics released earlier showed that consumer confidence GFK/NOP in the UK declined to -31 points in March against the level of -29 in February. The data indicates that strong destabilization factor is still preserved in British economy. The data released earlier showed that GDP in the UK fell by 0.3% on quarterly basis in Q4 (+0.5% y/y). Economists expected a less significant decline of 0.2% q/q. Current account balance in the UK was at the level of –stg8.451 billion in Q4 versus the forecast of -stg8.4 billion; while volume of consumer expenses rose only by 0.4% on quarterly basis at the end of the year 2011 (+0.5% q/q a quarter earlier).

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc steps back rapidly

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to step back rapidly in the middle of the week, moving away from boundaries of the oversold range, amid negative external factor.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF goes down in the negative area and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator has left oversold zone and increasing rapidly in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at 0.9130 the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9140 and 0.9160. Consolidation near the current levels is possible.

Franc’s position is getting weaker, largely due to the influence of external environment. Marco-economic situation in the country remains unchanged.

Manufacturing sector is still weak in Switzerland and does not demonstrate tendency to recover any more. Manufacturing activity index SVME increased to 49.0 points in February against the forecast of 48.5 points. Real retail sales rose by 4.4% in January against the growth by 1.7% y/y in December. GDP in the country rose by 0.1% q/q (+1.3% y/y) in Q4 against the forecast of zero change (+1.1% y/y). The data is quite good and shows that Swiss economy is getting used to expensive Franc. The regulator expects that inflation in 2012-2014 will be in the range of 0.6% tо +0.6%; growth of GDP will be at the level of 1.0% this year.

At the last meeting of Swiss National Bank three- month Libor rate was left unchanged at the level of 0%. In general, position of SNB on monetary policy has remained unchanged.

Statistics released this week showed that PMI SVME in Switzerland rose to 51.1 points in March against the forecast of 49.5 points. However, other data was weak: retail sales increased only by 0.8% in February against the previous value of +4.7% y/y and the forecast of growth of 2.0% y/y.

It became known earlier that consumption indicator UBS in Switzerland fell to 0.87 points in February against preliminary level of 0.93 points.

Industrial output in manufacturing sector of Switzerland declined again in Q4 last year: volume of industrial output amounted to -1.4% y/y for the reporting period against the level of -1.9% in Q3. It became known earlier that imports increased by 0.7% y/y to the level of 14.04 billion francs in February, while exports rose only by 1.2% y/y (16.72 billion francs) last month. Balance of trade surplus amounted to 2.68 billion francs in February. It is the increase against previous level of 1.5 billion francs. According to the data released earlier, unemployment rate amounted to 3.4% in February- no changes.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen strengthens moderately

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate is traded moderately upward in the middle of the week, as investors’ interest to “safe” currency is increasing against pessimistic external backdrop.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY goes down in the positive area, while volumes are average and is giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone and is giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 82.55 the pair USD/JPY will go to 82.50 and 82.10. Consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Statistics released this morning showed that consumer sentiment index in Japan increased by 1.9 points in March, to the level -55.6 points against the value of -57.5 points in December. The data released on Tuesday demonstrated that monetary base in Japan fell to -0.2% y/y in March against the growth of 11.3% earlier. The Yen did not respond to statistics, as investors are focused on the external background now, which is in general favourable for today’s trading session.

The head of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa reiterated that winning victory over deflation is extremely important for the country. Measures to stimulate growth are essential in the Country of the Rising Sun; however only these actions and infusions of the CB will not be able to improve the situation.

Retail sales rose by 3.5% y/y in February against expectations of growth of 1.3% y/y. This is a positive indication; however it shall be corroborated by further data.

Real revised GDP amounted to -0.2% q/q (-0.7% y/y) in Q4. In addition, current account balance amounted to -Y437.3 billion against the forecast of +Y322.3 billion; while private consumption increased by 0.4% q/q last quarter against the forecast of 0.3% q/q. Unemployment rate in February fell to 4.5% in February against the forecast of 4.6%. In addition, household spending rose by2.3% y/y in February versus expectations of decline of 0.4% y/y. Net CPI increased by 0.1% y/y in February against the forecast of decline of 0.1% y/y. This data is very favourable indeed.

Earlier, the JPY gained support from the fact that it was the end of the fiscal year which finished on 31 March. Exporters brought revenues to the country last week. So this factor is losing force now.

Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumi said earlier that now the country is watching over the negotiations in Europe on establishment of the so-called protective barrier- the comment was made in response to expectations whether Japan would participate in the fight against European debt crisis through contribution to IMF.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Sales in Australian Dollar are still going on

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to weaken.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD went into the negative area, it has broken through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down now, maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving along the signal line on the border with oversold zone and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0270 the pair will go back to 1.0260 and 1.0240.

The currency is still affected by strong negative factor caused by the outcome of the meeting of RBA. A meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia had mixed outcome: interest rate was left at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however it was the tone of the follow-up comments that made investors feel anxious. Thus, the regulator stressed that the RBA is able to lower the rate if macro-economic data will show slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also emphasized strong negative effect of European influence.

Reserve Bank of Australia stated last week that funding problems can be preserved in the country this year, although access to funding has become easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slow down in the global economy can have a significant impact on Australian economic system. This statement was unfavourable for the AUD.

The data released this morning showed that activity index AiG in the service sector rose to 47.0 points in March against the fall of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to -А$0.48 billion in February against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

Statistics released on Thursday showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-February. Previous statistics demonstrated that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand.

Earlier investors reacted negatively to the latest comments of the company BNR. Company’s management circulated press- release, expressing dissatisfaction with the royalty taxation. The AUD traders were quick to close positions.

Inflation in Q4 showed zero growth in the country against the forecast of rise of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December versus the forecast of growth of 0.2%. Statistics released earlier showed that unemployment rate amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. Number of employed reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January against revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CAD: Canadian Dollar slowly goes down

At the Forex currency market the Canadian Dollar rate is getting weaker on Wednesday; however this process is very slow.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD goes up in the negative area and is giving a buy signal; volumes are minimal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, giving a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9920 the pair will go to 0.9930 and 0.9950. Consolidation close to the current levels is possible.

Canadian dollar is still very sensitive to external backdrop, so positions of the AUD are getting weaker, as long as interest to commodity currencies in the market is decreasing.

The head of the Bank of Canada Mr. Carney said that economic growth in the country is above the forecast and authorities possess a number of tools to protect housing market from overheating. However, monetary policy tools will be applied only as the last resort. Earlier, Mr. Carney emphasized that current rates are consistent with monetary situation. Recall, that in the middle of the January, the Bank of Canada kept interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise for the market. The Bank of Canada expressed concern about the state of the housing sector; according to the regulator 10% decline in the sector can lead to reduction in consumption by 1% although the bulk of credits on property were used to finance consumption.

Average weekly earnings in the country rose by 0.6% m/m (+2.0% y/y in January.

According to the data released last Friday, GDP in Canada rose by 0.1% m/m (+1.75% y/y) in January against revised value of +0.5% m/m (+1.9% y/y), which in general agreed with the forecast. Previous statistics showed that economic growth in Canada slowed down in Q4: real GDP amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.3% m/m. Al in all Canadian economy grew only by 0.4% in the last quarter last year versus +1.0% in Q3. This can be attributed by strong impact of external factors and decreased interest in energy resources at the end of the year.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar began to rise from lows

The Australian dollar rate tries to recover at the Forex currency market on Thursday after a long round of sales.

Forex Forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD moved to the negative area, breaking through the signal line from top to bottom and is going down maintaining a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is moving along the signal line on the border with oversold zone and is not giving a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0290 the pair will go back to 1.0280 and 1.0250.

The AUD ignores weak Chinese statistics today and is ready to regain along with the market; however if external negative factor will turn up, sellers of the pair will resume sales.

The reserve Bank of Australia stated last week that problems with financing can be preserved in the country this year although access to financing has been made easier for many banks. The RBA emphasized that uncertainty in Europe and slowdown in the world economy can have strong impact on Australian economic system. This comment was unfavourable for the AUD.

The currency is still under negative pressure from the outcome of the meeting of RBA. The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia had mixed outcome: interest rate was kept at the previous level of 4.25% per annum; however comments made by RBA made investors feel concern. Thus, the Regulator stressed that the RBA has tools to lower the rate if macro-economic data will indicate slowdown in domestic demand. The RBA also noted strong negative influence from Europe.

Statistics released earlier showed that number of jobs in Australia increased by 0.7% q/q in December-January. Previous statistics showed that unemployment rate in the country amounted to 5.2% in January against 5.1% earlier. At the same time number of employed population reduced by 15.4 thousand against the forecast of growth of 5 thousand.

Inflation showed zero growth in Q4 against the forecast of growth of 0.4% on quarterly basis. Retail sales fell by 0.1% m/m in December against the forecast of growth of 2%. Index of leading indicators WESTPAC rose by 0.6% m/m in January versus revised growth of 0.7% m/m in December.

Activity index in the service sector AiG rose to 47.0 points in March against the dip of 5.3 points in February. Trade balance amounted to А$0.48 billion against the level of +A$1.3 billion in January.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CAD: Sales in Canadian Dollar has been suspended

At the Forex currency market the Canadian dollar rate stands still on Thursday, after mass sales in the middle of the week, driven by the impact of negative external environment. Oil prices are recovering today and markets are quiet.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CAD is in the negative area, it has started to move along the signal line and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator began to go up in the neutral zone, giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9965 the pair will go to 0.9970 and 0.9990. Consolidation near current levels is possible.

Positions of the AUD may restore today, as increasing price for the "black gold" is able to support the currency after the slump.

Unemployment rate in Canada fell to 7.4% in February from 7.6% earlier. The number of jobs decreased by 2.8 thousand. It became known earlier that inflation in Canada increased by 0.4% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in February against expectations of growth of 0.5% m/m. At the same time, net CPI showed growth of 0.4% m/m. It is obvious that prices for electric power and food became a catalyst for the rise in inflation last month.

Average weekly earnings in the country rose by 0.6% m/m (+2.0% y/y) in the country.

According to the data released earlier, GDP in Canada rose by 0.1% m/m (+1.75% y/y) in January versus revised value of +0.5% m/m (+1.9% y/y) which in general agreed with the forecast. Previous statistics demonstrated that economic growth in Canada slowed down: real GDP amounted to +0.4% m/m in December against the forecast of +0.3% m/m. All in all Canadian economy grew only by 0.4% in the last quarter last year against +1.0% in Q3. This was driven by strong external impact and decreasing interest in energy resources at the end of the year.

Balance of current account amounted to CAD$10.33 billion in Q4 against expectations of CAD$9.6 billion. Prices for industrial goods in Canada rose by 0.3% in January versus the forecast of growth of 0.1%. Oil prices became the main driver of growth.

The head of the bank of Canada Mr. Carney noted earlier that economy of the country is growing slightly above the forecast and government possesses a number of tools to protect housing market from overheating. However, tools of monetary policy will be used only as the last resort. Earlier Mr. Carney stressed that current interest rate is consistent with the monetary situation. Recall that in the middle of January the Bank of Canada left interest rate at the level of 1.0% per annum, which was not a surprise to the market. The bank of Canada expressed concern about the condition of the housing sector, according to the regulator, 10% decline in this sector can lead to decrease in consumption of 1%, as the major volume of mortgage loans was used to finance consumption.