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[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 04.10.10: JPY: Japanese Yen continues to grow no matter what

At the Forex currency market the Japanese Yen rate continues to grow – the eleventh session of the Japanese Yen growth reflects traders’ reluctance to open dollar positions when there is the appealing YPY around here.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY however it goes up today giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.
Apparently signals reflect the local prices overbought while external background speaks in favour of the JPY.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 83.60 the pair will go to 83.90 and 84.40. If the level of 82.90 is exceeded the Yen bulls will go back to the market.

The following Japanese data was released today:
– Average cash income in August: 5.8% y/y;

– Monetary base in September: 0.0% y/y.

A large block of Japanese statistics was released last week, special attention however should be paid to the inflation levels or rather their absence. Consumer prices in the country of the rising sun have been demonstrating reduction for the 18th consecutive month which clearly indicates deflation. Import in the country is getting cheaper which may force the Bank of Japan to reconsider its attitude to the monetary policy and make it softer. Expensive Yen continues to put pressure on the import prices in Japan which in its turn leads to the prices reduction in the country which causes deflation. Therefore it is quite probable that the regulator will undertake such action as the expansion of the economy quantitative easing program– it is around 30 trillion yen now.
As for the outlooks for the Yen, currently (excluding technical component impact) the Yen’s growth to the level of 81.0 is quite probable however a chance of technical correction cannot be excluded either.
By the way talk about disadvantages of the intervention arises more often. Japanese Economy Minister said earlier that authorities intend to take all necessary steps if trading situation at the currency market requires. According to him intervention into the currency market was just a temporary measure and no one is going to pour liquidity on the trading floors infinitely.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 04.10.10: CHF: Swiss Franc is in uncertainty and can be put under pressure

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate goes round in circles near the opening levels and can find itself under pressure.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF however it goes up giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal being in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: buyers’ targets today will be the levels of 0.9880 and 0.9945.
The Bank of Switzerland representative noted today that economic incentives have almost no effect on the situation in the country so it is time now to turn back to the bankruptcy issues of major players in the financial sector.
Citigroup believes that GDP in Switzerland will increase by 3% this year which is significantly higher than the average forecast in comparison with the other countries. At the same time inflation levels are still close to the lows.
It is clear that in the light of such statistics the SNB will keep the rate low for a long time since there is no need to tighten monetary policy any more.
GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country. Thus Franc has become a serene harbor once again amid dollar’s instability.
We would remind that at the last week meeting Swiss National Bank decided to keep interest rate at the level of about 0.25% for three months. The Bank announced that at the current interest rate inflation level in the country would amount to 0.7% this year and 0.3% in 2011. By the year of 2012 inflation rate will hit the level of 1.2%. Thus indicated inflation level makes it possible for the SNB to leave monetary policy unchanged which affected the Franc’s rate.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 05.10.10: Bank of Japan supported Euro’s attempts to grow

The pair EUR/USD demonstrates slight increase at the Forex currency market on Tuesday after the decline in the morning – actions of the Bank of Japan supported purchase sentiments of the market participants.
By 10.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3701 against yesterday’s closing session level of 1.3686.
Although Australia kept the interest rate at the previous level while its growth had been expected; although decline of the activity levels in the manufacturing sector is observed in China, the Bank of Japan actions gave incentives for the purchase on Tuesday.
However traders at the floors still feel great apprehension about the European Banks’ state and debt crisis issue in Eurozone.
A lot of statistics will be released today on both Eurozone and the U.S. which will enhance volatility at the floors.
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3650-1.3750 on Tuesday trading session.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 05.10.10: CHF: Growth of Swiss Franc continues for the third day

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to grow taking into advantage the USD instability.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF and continues to descend confirming a pair previous sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is not giving a clear signal today being in the oversold area.
Forex recommendations: if the current situation maintains traders’ targets today will be the levels of 0.9660 and 0.9600.
The following Swiss data was released today:
– CPI in September remained unchanged: +0.3% y/y.
As a whole the situation in Swiss economy remains unchanged and traders’ attention shifted to Japan and Australia.
GDP level in Switzerland rose by 0.9% on quarterly basis (+3.4% y/y) in QII against the forecast of +0.8% (+2.6% y/y) and private consumption index in Switzerland increased to 1.86 in July against the previous value of 1.81 (revised data:1.80). Index is calculated on the basis of the several indicators and the fact that it is above 1.50 is an indication of the favourable economic development in the country. Thus Franc has become a serene harbor once again amid dollar’s instability.
The Bank of Switzerland representative noted yesterday that economic incentives have almost no effect on the situation in the country so it is time now to turn back to the bankruptcy issues of major players in the financial sector.
Citigroup believes that GDP in Switzerland will increase by 3% this year which is significantly higher than the average forecast in comparison with the other countries. At the same time inflation levels are still close to the lows.
It is clear that in the light of such statistics the SNB will keep the rate low for a long time since there is no need to tighten monetary policy any more.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 05.10.10: JPY: Japanese Yen is being corrected on Tuesday due to the pressure caused by the Bank of Japan policy

At the Forex currency market the Yen has become one of the two currencies which attract attention of all traders. Following the Bank of Japan decision to cut the interest rate to help economy the JPY continued the pullback which had started yesterday.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/JPY however it goes up giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today.
Forex recommendations: buyers’ targets today will be the levels of 84.40 and 85.00.
Thus the Bank of Japan decided to lower the interest rate to the level of 0% against the previous level of 0.1%. This decision was a surprise to the market as although traders were prepared for the actions to mitigate monetary policy they could not expect it to turn this way.
The head of the Bank of Japan Shirakawa said in the comments that 2-years rates will be also reduced which would help to widespread the effect of soft policy. At the same time the Bank of Japan representative Suda noted later that economy is still in danger of bubbles in the government bonds sector.
It also became known on Tuesday that a new fund is going to be founded in the amount of 5 trillion yen to pour liquidity in the Japanese financial system – in particular for the purchase of the government bonds and other assets.
The echo of the intervention carried out in mid-September is still audible at the market and talk about disadvantages of the intervention arises more often. Japanese Economy Minister said earlier that authorities intend to take all necessary steps if trading situation at the currency market requires. According to him intervention into the currency market was just a temporary measure and no one is going to pour liquidity on the trading floors infinitely.
A large block of Japanese statistics was released last week, special attention however should be paid to the inflation levels or rather their absence. Consumer prices in the country of the rising sun have been demonstrating reduction for the 18th consecutive month which clearly indicates deflation. Import in the country is getting cheaper – now when the regulator has adopted new measures to control this sector, things will become easier.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 05.10.10: AUD: Australian Dollar goes down being under significant pressure

The rate of the Australian Dollar goes down at the Forex currency market on Tuesday following the announcement by the Reserve Bank of Australia the decision to keep interest rate unchanged at the level of 4.5% while market had expected interest rate increase.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD and it descends giving grounds for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today being in the oversold zone.
Forex recommendations: traders’ targets today will be the levels of 0.9500 and 0.9470.
Thus the RBA left the interest rate unchanged while market expected the growth rate to 4.75% - Stevens, the head of the Bank, noted in his comments later that at some moment in the future the economy may require higher interest rates. In principle such a clause should contain the AUD fall however the currency’s descending movement deprives buyers from the hope for parity with the USD.
According to the data released earlier leading indicators index in Australia increased by 0.4% to 269.5 in July as per Westpac-Melbourne estimation; at the same time its annual growth rate reduced to 6.8% against the previous level of 7.4%. As the chief Westpac economist Bill Evans noted current forecast assumes that average growth in 2010 will amount to 3.5% and it will be steady until the end of the year despite sudden changes in some sectors. Coincident indicators index also increased by 0.4% (+4.3% y/y) in July; Evans stressed that such data can encourage the RBA to raise interest rate to 4.75% at the next meeting.
The other statistics shows that GDP level in Australia rose to the maximum value of the last three years in QII demonstrating increase by 1.2% against the forecast of 0.9%. Previous index value was at the level of 0.7%.Economists believe that Chinese demand for iron ore is an activator of the Australian economic growth. New interest rate increase hardly threatens Australia. Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.50%per annum now. The main and official version of the last RBA meeting is as follows –current level of the inflation decline made it possible not to undertake drastic measures to tighten monetary policy so far.
Interest rate has been at the current level for half a year already.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 05.10.10: GBP: Pound goes up today signals are conflicting however

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate is traded upward on Tuesday amid positive external factor however technical pattern is not clear.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD however it moves along the signal line therefore it does not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a pair sell signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.5880 the pair will go to 1.5920 and 1.5960. If there is a breakdown at the level of 1.5780, traders’ targets will be the levels of 1.5740 and 1.5700.

It became known today that CIPS PMI index in the UK service sector amounted to 52.8 due to which Gilts (December) increased to the maximum level of 124.68.
It also became known today that the UK official reserves amounted to $1.935 billion.
Market’s attention is not focused on the Pound today therefore there are no any jerks in the pair’s movement. As it became known on Monday PMI in the construction sector increased to 53.8 in September against the previous level of 52.1 and market forecast of 51.4. Thus statistics showed that the state of the UK industry did not become worse but it has improved instead. However housing market is still a weak point of the UK economy. We would remind that as it became known last week mortgage lending in Great Britain increased by 1.7 billion pounds in August; consumer lending level in the country rose by 1.5 billion pounds in August.
The Bank of England representative Posen noted earlier that one should not underestimate the potential for economic growth in the UK; measures to increase incentives are perfectly logical in this situation. According to him there are evident reasons now for buying British bonds and it would be better if Central Banks coordinated their efforts.
The Bank of England representative Bean noted earlier that that the main purpose of the regulator’s soft policy is to stimulate consumer spending which will support the country’s economy in the medium-term. Bean described MRS current approach as aggressive and directed exclusively to combat financial crisis.

 

[Aliko Labuan]

Forex recommendations: buyers’ targets today will be the levels of 84.40 and 85.00
News mcm ni memberi efek besor ke masta,berapa % tahap kepercayaan?
Saya budak baru bljr

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 06.10.10: Dollar grows weaker in expectation of Federal Reserve actions

The pair EUR/USD continues to go up at the Forex currency market on Wednesday morning being at the 8 months highs.
By 9.55 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.3849 against the closing session level of 1.3838 yesterday.
After yesterday’s decision of the Bank of Japan to expand quantitative easing program investors at the trading floors are confident that the FR system will follow suit and will provide stronger support to the American economy in particular increasing amount of government bonds redemption.
Investors’ attention today will be drawn to the changes in the Eurozone GDP level data in QII and the U.S. last night statistics including employment data.
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will be in the range of 1.3750-1.3890 on Wednesday trading session.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

Forex Analytics of LiteForex of 06.10.10: GBP: Power of British Pound amazes everyone

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate continues to grow on Wednesday and the currency turnover is rather significant.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair GBP/USD on Wednesday and it continues to grow confirming a pair previous buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is not giving a clear signal being in the overbought zone.
Forex recommendations: if the current sentiments maintain at the market buyers’ targets today will be the levels of 1.5970 and 1.6030.
The following UK data was released today:
– Temporary jobs index is 52.8 in September against 54.0 in August;
– Permanent jobs index is 54.6 in September against 56.3 in August;
– Retail prices index in September is +0.2% m/m, +1.9% y/y against +0.1% m/m, +1.7% y/y in August.
It is obvious that labour market in the country is still weak; jobs are not created as companies do not exactly what their prospects are.
As it became known on Monday PMI in the construction sector increased to 53.8 in September against the previous level of 52.1 and market forecast of 51.4. Thus statistics showed that the state of the UK industry did not become worse but it has improved instead. However housing market is still a weak point of the UK economy. We would remind that as it became known last week mortgage lending in Great Britain increased by 1.7 billion pounds in August; consumer lending level in the country rose by 1.5 billion pounds in August.
The Bank of England representative Posen noted earlier that one should not underestimate the potential for economic growth in the UK; measures to increase incentives are perfectly logical in this situation. According to him there are evident reasons now for buying British bonds and it would be better if Central Banks coordinated their efforts.
The Bank of England representative Bean noted earlier that that the main purpose of the regulator’s soft policy is to stimulate consumer spending which will support the country’s economy in the medium-term. Bean described MRS current approach as aggressive and directed exclusively to combat financial crisis.
The Bank of England meeting will be held on Thursday; traders at the market will await monetary politicians’ comments.