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[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: Sales of New Zealand Dollar would continue strongly

At the Forex currency market the New Zealand Dollar rate remains in the spotlight of sellers.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD; it is moving along the signal line and is not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is touched the oversold zone, maintaining a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8490, the pair will go to 0.8470 and 0.8450.

It became known today unemployment rate in New Zealand amounted to 6.5% in Q2 against revised similar value in Q1. Employment rate in New Zealand has not changed on quarterly basis in Q2, showing growth by 2.0% y/y, to 2.214 million. In general the data agreed with the economists’ forecast, unemployment rate had been even below consensus forecast of 6.6%. However, this did not prevent sales of the NZD. Wide spread risk aversion will remain the main driver for the pair NZD/USD.

CPI in New Zealand rose by 1.0% q/q (+5.3% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.8% on quarterly basis. It is one more positive characteristic of the economic status in New Zealand.

It is worth noting that permits for construction in New Zealand fell by 1.4% m/m in June against the forecast of +3.0%. Trade balance in New Zealand increased by NZ$230 billion in June against the forecast of NZ$400 billion. Slowdown in surplus was logical in June: volume of growth rate in imports and exports fell last month. Thus exports increased by 4.5% in Q2, to NZ$12.2 billion; imports dropped by 1%, to the level of NZ$11.8 billion. Exports to China and Australia fell sequentially: to +1.3% y/y (+24.2% y/y earlier) and 1.2% y/y (+4.7% y/y earlier) respectively.

At the meeting which was held yesterday, the Reserve bank of New Zealand decided to leave interest rate at the previous level of 2.5% per annum. In the follow-up comments the RBNZ said that monetary policy tightening is planned for the nearest future to duly curb the growth of prices in the country.

As the head of the Bank, Mr. Bollard noted:”World financial risks have begun to fade out and economic growth continues to accelerate pace; therefore, there is no sense to maintain the rate at the current low level any further.”

 

[shadowfx]

whether New Zealand will not be affected by U.S. dollar is now going down?

 

[LF.Anastasia]

EUR/USD: EURO is still in a weak position

The pair EUR/USD is traded slightly upward at the Forex currency market on Friday morning after substantial downfall yesterday.By 9.20 Moscow time the Euro is at 1.4106 against yesterday’s closing level of 1.4090.

After yesterday’s meeting of the European central Bank where the rate was kept at the previous level of 1.50% per annum, a traditional press-conference of the ECB head, Mr. Trichet took place, which triggered sales of the Euro. Monetary politician said in his speech that situation in the European economy remains complicated; ECB is contemplating additional buyback of the public bonds and intends to continue stimulation of the economy.

In view of such gloomy prospects investors have no choice but to close out positions on the Euro.Meanwhile, not everything is going on swimmingly the USA.

According to the data released this morning, employment index Monster decreased to 144 points in July against the level of 146 points in June. Tonight, investors will be waiting for the data on the unemployment rate in the country in July, which is expected to remain at the high level of 9.2%.Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not go beyond the range of 1.4050-1.4150 at the trading session on Friday.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

GBP: British Pound is under pressure at the end of the week

At the Forex currency market the British Pound Sterling rate practically stands still on Friday morning, evaluating external background. Yesterday’s sales make it possible to suggest that at the end of the week the Pound will remain under pressure.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair GBP/USD, remains in the positive area, however it is moving along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down in the neutral zone, gradually turning into a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of break down at the level of 1.6250, the pair will go to 1.6230 и 1.6200.

If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels. The meeting of the Bank of England yesterday was as usual brief and concise: the rate was left at the level of 0.50% per annum, package of public bonds redemption was also left unchanged, in the amount of 200 billion pounds.No special comments have been made: British regulator continues to adhere to the old monetary policy.Earlier, Confederation of British Industry, CBI has reduced GDP forecast for the current year to 1.3% against the forecast of 1.7% in May.

According to experts, sovereign crisis in Europe, debt problems in the U.S. and Japanese disasters will not enable British economy to strengthen considerably. Meanwhile, preliminary GDP in the UK increased by 0.2% on quarterly basis (+0.7% y/y) in Q2.Moody’s believes that the UK DGP will rise by 1.6% this year; in 2012 – by 2.1%; while the growth in 2010 had been by 1.3%.

At the same time unemployment rate will vary in the range of 7.8-8.0%. The forecast of the agency is based on the belief that the Bank of England will raise interest rate by 25 basis points before the end of this year and by another 1% -over the next year.Finance Minister Osborne is confident that Great Britain continues to hold a status of a quiet habour, because national authorities are taking tough measures on fiscal policy.

He believes that the country shall continue to adhere to consolidation plan to get rid of debts; meanwhile the Britain is able to keep away from recession. Rejection from the fiscal plan at the moment will become a real threat to economic growth, thinks Osborne. It also became known this week, index of PMI CIPS in the UK construction sector increased to 53.6 points in July against the forecast of 53.0 points. In June, CPI in the UK fell by 0.1% m/m (4.2% y/y) against the forecast of growth by 0.2% m/m.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

CHF: Swiss Franc has approached historic highs once again

At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate is very close to historic highs on Friday morning, due to external instability and despite the threat of currency intervention by the SNB.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF, and is going down, giving a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is still in the oversold zone and maintains a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.7650, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.7620 and 0.7600.

If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.It seems that now Swiss National Bank will have to confront a huge number of currency investors, who try to hedge risks in the Franc, due to the increasing instability in the market, the demand in CHF has risen again, even despite the actions of the SNB this week.We would remind that earlier, Swiss national Bank had restricted three- month Libor rate to 0-0.25% (it had amounted to 0-0.75% previously).

They also stated that increasing rate of the Franc is a negative factor for the national economy; therefore Libor rate will tend to zero and the SNB is going to infuse liquidity into the market in the nearest future to “chill out” the Franc.SNB named the threat to economic progress and price instability as main arguments.According to statistics released earlier, level of retail sales in Switzerland rose by 7.4% y/y in June against the revised level of -3.9% y/y in May.

In addition, index of PMI SVME increased to 53.5 points in July versus the forecast of 52.5 points.Current data shows that the data released previously was seasonal and does not indicate recession of the economy. Index of leading indicators KOF in Switzerland fell to 2.04 in July, while the forecast had been 2.11.

The data released earlier showed that trade balance in Switzerland totaled +1.74 billion francs in June against preliminary revised level of +3.25 billion francs.It will be interesting to know the volume of the infused liquidity in the market by SNB to assess how firm the Bank’s intention is to conduct intervention.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

JPY: Japanese Yen started to rebound from local highs

The Japanese Yen rate is traded upward at the Forex currency market – after the intervention in the amount of 5 trillion yen, carried out by the Bank of Japan yesterday, the rate of the JPY had risen above 80.0 for the first time in a long time and is being corrected now.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair USD/CHF, and is going down, shifting into the sideways and not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes up in the neutral zone, not as rapidly as before, shifting into the sideways and is giving a buy signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 78.50, the pair will go to 78.30 and 78.10.

If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will aim to 80.05.It became known today that preliminary index of leading indicators increased to 103.2 points in June against the previous level of 99.4 points.

At the same time preliminary index of coincident indicators in June was at the level of 108.6 points against the forecast of 108.7 points. Statistics is positive, it demonstrates that Japanese economy is moving towards recovery although slowly and with halts.We would remind that At the meeting of the Bank of Japan today, interest rate was left unchanged, in the range of 0-0.1%, at the same time program of assets purchase has been increased up to 15 trillion yen (previously: 10 trillion yen).

In addition, volume of purchases of the long term government bonds was raised to 4 trillion yen (2 trillion yen earlier); size of program to purchase corporate bonds was increased to 2.9 trillion yen (2 trillion yen earlier). Economic evaluation of the Central Bank was raised again in July, because regulator believes that activity in the economy is growing fast, so economy of Japan is on the way to gradual recovery.

Meanwhile, this morning the Central Bank of Japan had carried out currency intervention to reduce pressure which Yen exerts on the economy. The volume of the intervention amounted to 5 trillion yen and the Yen had soared up above 80.0, for the first time since July. According to the previous estimates of the Bank, real level of GDP will rise by 0.4% in the fiscal year of 2011 (forecast of April had been more optimistic: +0.6%).

In the fiscal year of 2012, GDP growth is expected in the volume of 2.9% which would agree with the April forecast. Next year CPI is predicted to be at the level of +0.7%.Statistics released earlier was mixed: unemployment rate in June was at the level of 4.6%; household spending fell by 4.2% y/y in June; net national CPI increased by 0.4% in June against the forecast of +0.5%.

Exports in Japan decreased by 1.6% y/y last month against the forecast of decline by 4.1% y/y; imports rose by 9.8% y/y, while expected growth had been 11.0% y/y.In addition, preliminary average wages in Japan fell by 0.8% y/y in June against the forecast of growth by 0.5% y/y.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

AUD: Australian Dollar demonstrates timid attempts to recover

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate tends to recover slightly on Friday after 6 days of considerable sales.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD, and is going down, while volumes are low, and is a sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is pushing away from the oversold zone, however is not planning to come out and tending to shape a moderate sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0490, the pair will go to 1.0510 and 1.0550.

If upward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate close to the current levels. The Australian Dollar has rapidly responded to the deterioration of the external background, which partly explains sales of the AUD. Position of the RBA became an additional factor of pressure when it raised inflation forecast and lowered forecast of economic growth.

It became known today that business activity index in the construction sector AIG in Australia fell by 0.3 points in July, to the level of 36.1 points. According to the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia, interest rate in the country was left at the previous level of 4.75% per annum. In the follow-up comments, the head of the RBA, Mr. Stevens said that external uncertainty prevents the rise in the interest rate in Australia at the moment.

He said that “ it was agreed that it was reasonable to maintain current course of monetary policy especially taking into account acute sense of uncertainty at the financial markets recently. At the next meeting the RBA will continue to estimate varying prospects for growth and inflation”.Index of PPI in Australia increased by 0.8% on quarterly basis in Q2 against the growth of 1.2% in Q1.

Business confidence NAB in Australia amounted to +6 points in Q2 against the prior value of +11 points.

At the same time index of current conditions rose by 3 points against preliminary +2 points and assessment of business conditions in the three-month term increased by 10 points (forecast had been the growth of 15 points). CPI in Australia increased by 0.9% q/q ((+3.6% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.7% q/q. This data turned out above expectations and supported growth in the pair AUD/USD.

It is worth noting that business conditions index in Australia increased by 2 points in July, as per NAB estimates, against zero value in May. At the same time, business confidence index NAB amounted to 0 points against the level of +6 points in May, and GDP forecast for the fiscal year of 2011-2012 had been reduced to 1.7%Price index of houses in Australia fell by 0.1% q/q in Q2 against the forecast of reduction by 0.9% on quarterly basis.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

NZD: New Zealand Dollar can move away from local highs at the end of the week

The New Zealand Dollar rate is traded slightly upward at the Forex currency market on Friday, although it has tested local lows during Asian session.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD; it is moving down, giving a sell signal, while lolumes are low. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone, and maintains a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8340, the pair will go to 0.8310 and 0.8280. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair can be corrected to 0.8390.

Economic situation in New Zealand remains almost unchanged on Friday morning.The AUD is not very popular with traders at the moment, which can be logically explained- as long as economic uncertainty persists in the world, there will be few volunteers, eager to take risk. CPI in New Zealand rose by 1.0% q/q (+5.3% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.8% on quarterly basis. It is one more positive characteristic of the economic status in New Zealand.It is worth noting that permits for construction in New Zealand fell by 1.4% m/m in June against the forecast of +3.0%.

Trade balance in New Zealand increased by NZ$230 billion in June against the forecast of NZ$400 billion. Slowdown in surplus was logical in June: volume of growth rate in imports and exports fell last month.

Thus exports increased by 4.5% in Q2, to NZ$12.2 billion; imports dropped by 1%, to the level of NZ$11.8 billion. Exports to China and Australia fell sequentially: to +1.3% y/y (+24.2% y/y earlier) and 1.2% y/y (+4.7% y/y earlier) respectively.At the meeting which this week, the Reserve bank of New Zealand decided to leave interest rate at the previous level of 2.5% per annum. In the follow-up comments the RBNZ said that monetary policy tightening is planned for the nearest future to duly curb the growth of prices in the country.

As the head of the Bank, Mr. Bollard noted:”World financial risks have begun to fade out and economic growth continues to accelerate pace; therefore, there is no sense to maintain the rate at the current low level any further.”In addition, it became known this week that unemployment rate in New Zealand amounted to 6.5% in Q2 against revised similar value in Q1.

Employment rate in New Zealand has not changed on quarterly basis in Q2, showing growth by 2.0% y/y, to 2.214 million. In general the data agreed with the economists’ forecast, unemployment rate had been even below consensus forecast of 6.6%. However, this did not prevent sales of the NZD. Wide spread risk aversion still remains the main driver for the pair NZD/USD.

 

[LF.Anastasia]

whether New Zealand will not be affected by U.S. dollar is now going down?

New Zealand is going down due to the perspectives of poor demand for raw product and to the downfall which has been taking place during this week, so far as New Zealand depends on coal.

 

[shadowfx]

NZD: New Zealand Dollar can move away from local highs at the end of the week

The New Zealand Dollar rate is traded slightly upward at the Forex currency market on Friday, although it has tested local lows during Asian session.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair NZD/USD; it is moving down, giving a sell signal, while lolumes are low. Stochastic Oscillator remains in the oversold zone, and maintains a sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.8340, the pair will go to 0.8310 and 0.8280. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair can be corrected to 0.8390.

Economic situation in New Zealand remains almost unchanged on Friday morning.The AUD is not very popular with traders at the moment, which can be logically explained- as long as economic uncertainty persists in the world, there will be few volunteers, eager to take risk. CPI in New Zealand rose by 1.0% q/q (+5.3% y/y) in Q2 against the forecast of growth by 0.8% on quarterly basis. It is one more positive characteristic of the economic status in New Zealand.It is worth noting that permits for construction in New Zealand fell by 1.4% m/m in June against the forecast of +3.0%.

Trade balance in New Zealand increased by NZ$230 billion in June against the forecast of NZ$400 billion. Slowdown in surplus was logical in June: volume of growth rate in imports and exports fell last month.

Thus exports increased by 4.5% in Q2, to NZ$12.2 billion; imports dropped by 1%, to the level of NZ$11.8 billion. Exports to China and Australia fell sequentially: to +1.3% y/y (+24.2% y/y earlier) and 1.2% y/y (+4.7% y/y earlier) respectively.At the meeting which this week, the Reserve bank of New Zealand decided to leave interest rate at the previous level of 2.5% per annum. In the follow-up comments the RBNZ said that monetary policy tightening is planned for the nearest future to duly curb the growth of prices in the country.

As the head of the Bank, Mr. Bollard noted:”World financial risks have begun to fade out and economic growth continues to accelerate pace; therefore, there is no sense to maintain the rate at the current low level any further.”In addition, it became known this week that unemployment rate in New Zealand amounted to 6.5% in Q2 against revised similar value in Q1.

Employment rate in New Zealand has not changed on quarterly basis in Q2, showing growth by 2.0% y/y, to 2.214 million. In general the data agreed with the economists’ forecast, unemployment rate had been even below consensus forecast of 6.6%. However, this did not prevent sales of the NZD. Wide spread risk aversion still remains the main driver for the pair NZD/USD.

yhank's for this share boss, i am newbie here, happy trade happy profit!