History Always Repeat Itself ?

[ExpertTrader]

Saudara Atlantis

- orang paling paham 'tentang dan pasalnya' thread ini di tulis -

aku nampak ni sebagai something new.
insight view peramal market.

aku pun percaya TA. tapi tt kita ni nampaknya transperent.
aku suka

tgk ramalannya utk hari selasa. walaupun pada pandangan aku euro takde harapan utk waktu terdekat ni, ramalan tt boleh dianggapkan sebagai 2nd opinion.

 

[ajeez0708]

Agreed that forex has memory sbb yg drive kan market is people who still refers to chart. Sooo, if eu naik alhamdulillah

 

[ExpertTrader]

Yang tak masuk dalam Delta Phenomenon (created by Mat Arip apa ke nama yang di Percayai oleh si J. Welles Wilder, pencipta RSI, ATR, Parabolic SAR) adalah kitaran Bulan (probably pasal Mat Saleh), ada orang kita nak buat kiraan ?

- bahawasanya Forex is predictable with amazing accuracy -

(whatever I write here it is in General Discussion area - ianya bukan Trading Technique or what, so paham2 la -)

 

[ExpertTrader]

Previous History

5 Jan 2011 - 9 Muharram 1432 - start downtrend

Current

12 Dec 2011 - 16 Muharram 1433 - also start downtrend

- I am referring to Charts that I posted -

 

[ExpertTrader]

Can the Full Moon
Affect Human Behavior?

by John Townley

For thousands of years it has been believed that the fortunes of men and women move in cycles. The ancients depicted the concept as the great Wheel of Fortune, eternally turning and spilling off the winners on top while bearing up the wretches beneath and giving them their time in the limelight before they, too, get dumped. The trouble was that no one knew for sure what powered that wheel or exactly what speed it was turning for any given individual. People knew their days were numbered, but they didn?t know the number.

Until recently the situation hasn?t improved much. For hundreds of years we have known that it is the regular and predictable cycles of the moon and sun that regulate the ocean?s tides, but the tides in the affairs of humans have not been so easily forecast. It was almost as if they moved erratically of their own accord, unmotivated by outside forces.

The extensive cycle research of the past thirty years has proved otherwise. It has established numerous links between regularly occurring human behavior and external natural cycles ranging from weather and solar radiation to phases of the moon and planetary cycles.

 

[ExpertTrader]

dan saya agree dengan formula di bawah -

Market Price = Fundamentals (supply and demand facts) + Human Perception (investor psychology)

so samada

Price = SupplynDemand + Perception

atau

Price = SupplynDemand x Perception

dan juga berapa percent Perception mempengaruhi Price Movement is so far unknown , at least to me

 

[ExpertTrader]

the words of the legendary trader W.D. Gann:

''If you will only study the weakness of human nature and see what fools these mortals be, you will find it easy to make profits by understanding the weakness of human nature and going against the public and doing the opposite of of what other people do. In other words, you buy near the bottom on knowledge and sell near the top on knowledge, while other people who just guess do the opposite. Time spent in the study of price, time and past market movements, will give you a rich reward''

 

[ExpertTrader]

From someone with 20 years of Trading History:

Over 20 years ago, I was new to the markets and have asked pretty much the same set of questions. The answer to my question why the market went up at a time when it just did, one of the veterans said with a grin on his face: because there were more buyers than sellers (or people wanted to buy more than there was on offer at the time).

When I looked at him believing he was joking, I asked back: but how do you know? And he replied with the same grin on his face: because prices are going up.

Looking back, that was all I needed to know; but what made the real difference was this:

I learned precisely this aspect of trading first - everything else is secondary.


================
Jadi, mana dulu ?
Ayam ke Telur ?

======jawapan = ayam (pada sesiapa yang tak tau lagi) =====

Olahan :

Saya mudahkan apa yang tertulis di atas ?

Mamat ni tanya orang lagi 'experien' dari dia -

Apsal price naik ?

Dia jawab : Pasal more Buyers dari Sellers.

Tanya lagi : Macammana kau tau ?

Dia jawab : Pasal Price Naik.

===============

So, Ayam ke Telur ?

=================
Ini bukan kelas - General Discussion - ingat tu

 

[xtraez]

teruskan tt... saya masih baru.. masih melihat2 peluang tersebut.

terima kasih tt atas perkongsian ilmu ni.

 

[ExpertTrader]

Words from One of Market Makers -


There are many ways to trade, and for everyone the decision making process is different.
What you have discribed are very mechanical methodology.
It would be the way to go , if you were a machine.

Try to feel the market, ask yourself questions all the time.
You are not carzy if you ask the questions , only if you listen.

Look at the chart, ask yourself,
what did the market do when it was last at this level, historically?
was this levels significant chart wise?
which direction is the market trending?
try to feel if its try to go up or down?

if you have determined the direction, it's most likely to go.
if you use indicators, try to determine the nearest safe levels to sttempt entry,
try the super over bought or oversoldlevels.in you bolinger bands.
fibonnacci levels are supposed to show market at its best equilibrium,
when at the fibo levels, whatch the mkt, is it behaving steady?
MACD are just multiple averages and are lag indicator,
intrendy mkts they widen ,
in letagic mkts they close up,
incongestions they spagattie cross.
don't read too much into that.

after entry watch the mkts.
Is it doing what you thought it should be doing?
are you comfortable with the position, if yes then add to the position.
if not get out, find a different level. and do itagain. and again until you are satisfied with your position.

when you are riding pprofits, take some out at the oversold levels to reenter near the overbought levels , vice versa.
After a few weeks , you should have a better feel of the market, you are trading.

Don't watch too many pairs.
focus on majors,
GBP and EUR should move quite in syn. YEN should behave the reverse.
watch those intermarket relationships, if any is not behaving normally ,
then be aware that something is happening in the fundamental front.
try to find out if there;s any special reason from the news releases.


Most dealers do not deal in time frames, we manage it mark to NOW,
if its going up forever, we'll keep turning long forever.

You must understand that unlike traders, the market keep making the dealers short of usd if usd keeps going up.
This is because customers will keep buying usd from them making them short,
so the dealer will have to go interbank and keep getting his dollars back to stay abreast of the markets.
For dealers, timeframe is of no consequence, it is constantly being managed.
Some dealers uses the averages, mostly just look at price levels.

There are special dealers in special Strategic Arbitrage & trading units that trades the markets like traders,
they manage exposures for the longer term.
Some of them are economist some are technical analyst.
at this section , some more advance instruments are managed, eg, OTC currency options and sythetics.