History Always Repeat Itself ?

[ExpertTrader]

It is 8:51pm -

EU price did go to 1.3197

before plunging down to now 1.3066

Again, after this retracement upward is expected.

It is 7:27am, EU = 1.30836

Market is cool.

Movement down last night, I believe is FAKE.

Price, I feel, will go up again today.

It is OK to feel and believe.

It is NOT OK to HOPE.

Go with the FLOW.

 

[ExpertTrader]

GO with the FLOW - price is going down.

 

[ExpertTrader]

9:57pm

Retracement upward time.

 

[ExpertTrader]

It is 10:55pm

EU = 1.3039

It wants to go down. Go with the Flow.

9:57pm

Retracement upward time.

 

[ExpertTrader]

It is 8:02pm

The price eventually made the retracement up, forming the notorius Head and Shoulder.

Where would the price go after HnS - ? I dont have to answer this -

at this moment, the purpose of this thread should be summarize.

But, I will find other 'events' where we can find 'almost similar' historical patterns where prediction can be made close to accurate.

TQ.

 

[ExpertTrader]

From One of the Market Makers
==============================

Resistance and support levels are never absolute.It changes as time progresses.
Your trade positions must change as the chart progresses and a continued analytics be done.
DO NOT try to read it once and have a set mind of the possibilities of what to expect.
The analysis is an on going process and every new bar added will cause new developments.
Never read the patterns that form on the chart, rather recognise it when it forms,
and follow it with a trade position.
Chart patterns can mutate as time advances
and a fixed perspective to the pattern that has formed is dangerous
as it palalyses your ability to change when the dance changes.
Althought it is foundational that you should be able to read the pattern formations,
you should not draw those lines on to your chart.
They can form optical illusions to your mind and
impair your ability of new developments that is coming onstream in the charts.

 

[ExpertTrader]

It is 11:15pm.

EU = 1.3037

How far will it go down ?

Get your ammunition ready -

 

[ExpertTrader]

Story worth reading
===================

I WENT to work when I was just out of grammar school. I got
a job as quotation-board boy in a stock-brokerage office. I was
quick at figures. At school I did three years of arithmetic in
one. I was particularly good at mental arithmetic. As
quotation-board boy I posted the numbers on the big board in the
customers' room. One of the customers usually sat by the ticker
and called out the prices. They couldn't come too fast for me. I
have always remembered figures. No trouble at all.
There were plenty of other employes in that office. Of
course I made friends with the other fellows, but the work I
did, if the market was active, kept me too busy from ten A.M. to
three P.m. to let me do much talking. I don't care for it,
anyhow, during business hours.
But a busy market did not keep me from thinking about the
work. Those quotations did not represent prices of stocks to'
me, so many dollars per share. They were numbers. Of course,
they meant something. They were always changing. It was all I
had to be interested in the changes. Why did they change? I
didn't know. I didn't care. I didn't think about that. I simply
saw that they changed. That was all I had to think about five
hours every day and two on Saturdays: that they were always
changing.
That is how I first came to be interested in the behaviour
of prices. I had a very good memory for figures. I could
remember in detail how the prices had acted on the previous day,
just before they went up or down. My fondness for mental
arithmetic came in very handy.
I noticed that in advances as well as declines, stock
prices were apt to show certain habits, so to speak. There was
no end of parallel cases and these made precedents to guide me.
I was only fourteen, but after I had taken hundreds of
observations in my mind I found myself testing their accuracy,
comparing the behaviour of stocks today with other days. It was
not long before I was anticipating movements in prices. My only
guide, as I say, was their past performances. I carried the
"dope sheets" in my mind. I looked for stock prices to run on
form. I had "clocked" them. You know what I mean.
You can spot, for instance, where the buying is only a
trifle better than the selling. A battle goes on in the stock market and the tape is your telescope. You can depend upon it
seven out of ten cases.
Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new
in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as
the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has
happened before and will happen again. I've never forgotten
that. I suppose I really manage to remember when and how it
happened. The fact that I remember that way is my way of
capitalizing experience.

I got so interested in my game and so anxious to anticipate
advances and declines in all the active stocks that I got a
little book. I put down my observations in it. It was not a
record of imaginary transactions such as so many people keep
merely to make or lose millions of dollars without getting the
swelled head or going to the poorhouse. It was rather a sort of
record of my hits and misses, and next to the determination of
probable movements I was most interested in verifying whether I
had observed accurately; in other words, whether I was right.
Say that after studying every fluctuation of the day in an
active stock I would conclude that it was behaving as it always
did before it broke eight or ten points. Well, I would jot down
the stock and the price on Monday, and remembering past
performances I would write down what it ought to do on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Later I would check up with actual transcriptions
from the tape.
That is how I first came to take an interest in the message
of the tape. The fluctuations were from the first associated in
my mind with upward or downward movements. Of course there is
always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern
itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn't go into
explanations. I didn't ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and
I don't ask it today, at forty. The reason for what a certain
stock does today may not be known for two or three days, or
weeks, or months. But what the dickens does that matter? Your
business with the tape is now -- not tomorrow. The reason can
wait. But you must act instantly or be left. Time and again I
see this happen. You'll remember that Hollow Tube went down
three points the other day while the rest of the market rallied
sharply. That was the fact. On the following Monday you saw that
the directors passed the dividend. That was the reason. They
knew what they were going to do, and even if they didn't sell
the stock themselves they at least didn't buy it. There was no
inside buying; no reason why it should not break.

 

[ExpertTrader]

continue
========

Well, I kept up my little memorandum book perhaps six
months. Instead of leaving for home the moment I was through with my work, I'd jot down the figures I wanted and would study
the changes, always looking for the repetitions and parallelisms
of behaviour learning to read the tape, although I was not aware
of it at the time.
One day one of the office boys -- he was older than I came
to me where I was eating my lunch and asked me on the quiet if I
had any money.
"Why do you want to know?" I said.
"Well," he said, "I've got a dandy tip on Burlington. I'm
going to play it if I can get somebody to go in with me."
"How do you mean, play it?" I asked. To me the only people
who played or could play tips were the customers old jiggers
with oodles of dough. Why, it cost hundreds, even thousands of
dollars, to get into the game. It was like owning your private
carriage and having a coachman who wore a silk hat.
"That's what I mean; play it 1" he said. "How much you got.
"How much you need?"
"Well, I can trade in five shares by putting up $5."
"How are you going to play it?"
"I'm going to buy all the Burlington the bucket shop will
let me carry with the money I give him for margin," he said.
"It's going up sure. It's like picking up money. We'll double
ours in a jiffy."
"Hold on!" I said to him, and pulled out my little dope
book.
I wasn't interested in doubling my money, but in his saying
that Burlington was going up. If it was, my notebook ought to
show it. I looked. Sure enough, Burlington, according to my
figuring, was acting as it usually did before it went up. I had
never bought or sold anything in my life, and I never gambled
with the other boys. But all I could see was that this was a
grand chance to test the accuracy of my work, of my hobby. It
struck me at once that if my dope didn't work in practice there
was nothing in the theory of it to interest anybody. So I gave
him all I had, and with our pooled resources he went to one of
the nearby bucket shops and bought some Burlington. Two days
later we cashed in. I made a profit Of $3.12.
After that first trade, I got to speculating on my own hook
in the bucket shops. I'd go during my lunch hour and buy or sell
-- it never made any difference to me. I was playing a system
and not a favorite stock or backing opinions. All I knew was the
arithmetic of it. As a matter of fact, mine was the ideal way to
operate in a bucket shop, where all that a trader does is to bet
on fluctuations as they are printed by the ticker on the tape.
It was not long before I was taking much more money out of
the bucket shops than I was pulling down from my job in the
brokerage office. So I gave up my position. My folks objected,
but they couldn't say much when they saw what I was making. I
was only a kid and officeboy wages were not very high. I did
mighty well on my own hook.
I was fifteen when I had my first thousand and laid the
cash in front of my mother -- all made in the bucket shops in a
few months, besides what I had taken home. My mother carried on
something awful. She wanted me to put it away in the savings
bank out of reach of temptation. She said it was more money than
she ever heard any boy of fifteen had made, starting with
nothing. She didn't quite believe it was real money. She used to
worry and fret about it. But I didn't think of anything except
that I could keep on proving my figuring was right. That's all
the fun there is being right by using your head. If I was right
when I tested my convictions with ten shares I would be ten
times more right if I traded in a hundred shares. That is all
that having more margin meant to me -- I was right more
emphatically. More courage? No! No difference! If all I have is
ten dollars and I risk it, I am much braver than when I risk a
million, if I have another million salted away.
Anyhow, at fifteen I was making a good living out of the
stock market. I began in the smaller bucket shops, where the man
who traded in twenty shares at a clip was suspected of being
John W. Gates in disguise or J. P. Morgan traveling incognito.
Bucket shops in those days seldom lay down on their customers.
They didn't have to. There were other ways of parting customers
from their money, even when they guessed right. The business was
tremendously profitable. When it was conducted legitimately -- I
mean straight, as far as the bucket shop went the fluctuations
took care of the shoestrings. It doesn't take much of a reaction
to wipe out a margin of only three quarters of a point. Also, no
welsher could ever get back in the game. Wouldn't have any
trade.

 

[ExpertTrader]

....
When I got to St. Louis I went to the hotel, washed up and
went out to find the bucket shops. One was the J. G. Dolan
Company, and the other was H. S. Teller & Co. I knew I could
beat them. I was going to play dead safe -- carefully and
conservatively. My one fear was that somebody might recognise me
and give me away, because the bucket shops all over the country
had heard of the Boy Trader. They are like gambling houses and
get all the gossip of the profesh.
Dolan was nearer than Teller, and I went there first. I was
hoping I might be allowed to do business a few days before they
told me to take my trade somewhere else. I walked in. It was a
whopping big place and there must have been at least a couple of
hundred people there staring at the quotations. I was glad,
because in such a crowd I stood a better chance of being
unnoticed. I stood and watched the board and looked them over
carefully until I picked out the stock for my initial play.
I looked around and saw the order-clerk at the window where
you put down your money and get your ticket. He was looking at
me so I walked up to him and asked, "Is this where you trade in
cotton and wheat?"
"Yes, sonny," says he.
"Can I buy stocks too?"
"You can if you have the cash," he said.
"Oh, I got that all right, all right," I said like a
boasting boy.
"You have, have you?" he says with a smile.
"How much stock can I buy for one hundred dollars?" I
asked, peeved-like.
"One hundred; if you got the hundred."
"I got the hundred. Yes; and two hundred too!" I told him

"Oh, my!" he said.
"Just you buy me two hundred shares," I said sharply.
"Two hundred what?" he asked, serious now. It was
business.
I looked at the board again as if to guess wisely and told
him, "Two hundred Omaha." "All right!" he said. He took my money, counted it and
wrote out the ticket.
"What's your name?" he asked me, and I answered, "Horace
Kent."

He gave me the ticket and I went away and sat down among
the customers to wait for the roll to grow. I got quick action
and I traded several times that day. On the next day too. In two
days I made twenty-eight hundred dollars, and I was hoping
they'd let me finish the week out. At the rate I was going, that
wouldn't be so bad. Then I'd tackle the other shop, and if I had
similar luck there I'd go back to New York with a wad I could do
something with.
On the morning of the third day, when I went to the window,
bashful -- like, to buy five hundred B. R. T. the clerk said to
me, "Say, Mr. Kent, the boss wants to see you."
I knew the game was up. But I asked him, "What does he want
to see me about?"
"I don't know."
"Where is he?"
"In his private office. Go in that way." And he pointed to
a door.
I went in. Dolan was sitting at his desk. He swung around
and said, "Sit down, Livermore."
He pointed to a chair. My last hope vanished. I don't know
how he discovered who I was; perhaps from the hotel register.
"What do you want to see me about?" I asked him.
"Listen, kid. I ain't got nothin' agin yeh, see? Nothin' at
all. See?"
"No, I don't see," I said.
He got up from his swivel chair. He was a whopping big guy.
He said to me, "Just come over here, Livermore, will yeh?" and
he walked to the door. He opened it and then he pointed to the
customers in the big room.
"D' yeh see them?" he asked.
"See what?"

"Them guys. Take a look at 'em, kid. There's three hundred
of em! Three hundred suckers! They feed me and my family. See?
Three hundred suckers! Then yeh come in, and in two days yeh cop
more than I get out of the three hundred in two weeks. That
ain't business, kid-not for me 1 I ain't got nothin' agin yeh.
Yer welcome to what ye've got. But yeh don't get any more. There
ain't any here for yeh!"
“Why, I –“
"That's all. I seen yeh come in day before yesterday, and I
didn't like yer looks. On the level, I didn't. I spotted yeh for a ringer. I called in that jackass there"-- he pointed to the
guilty clerk"and asked what you'd done; and when he told me I
said to him: 'I don't like that guy's looks. He's a ringer!' And
that piece of cheese says: 'Ringer my eye, boss! His name is
Horace Kent, and he's a rah-rah boy playing at being used to
long pants. He's all right!' Well, I let him have his way. That
blankety-blank cost me twenty-eight hundred dollars. I don't
grudge it yeh, my boy. But the safe is locked for yeh."


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budak terlampau terror trade sampai kena ban..