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[FreshForexTeam]

Copper Nears Record Highs Again: The Rally Continues​

Copper is once again at the center of attention in the commodities market. On Tuesday, CUCUSD rose to around 6.80, almost returning to the highs seen at the beginning of August. Sellers failed to trigger any significant correction afterward: during the current session, prices are holding around 6.79, remaining very close to the levels reached.

At the same time, the global benchmark confirmed the strength of the move. On September 8, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose above $14,700 per tonne, setting a new all-time high. This shows that the rally in CUCUSD is part of a broader global copper market move.

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What is supporting copper prices:​

• Metal supply remains limited. The market is increasingly concerned that mining companies will not be able to increase production quickly enough.
• The US is actively increasing imports. In July, copper shipments from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the US reached a record 53,290 tonnes, while total US imports exceeded 220,000 tonnes in a single month for the first time. Traders are trying to redirect more metal to the US in advance amid the risk of new import tariffs.
• Power grids and new technologies require more and more metal. Copper remains one of the key materials for electricity networks, electric vehicles and data centers. Rising infrastructure investment is supporting long-term demand.
• Chinese industry continues to see strong external demand. In August, China’s exports increased by 25% year-on-year, while high-tech exports rose by 42.9% during the first eight months of the year. Growing shipments of electronics, electric vehicles and other technology products are supporting demand for industrial commodities, including copper.

What makes the current situation particularly notable is that the market is receiving support from two directions at once. On one side is long-term demand from the energy and technology sectors. On the other is the redistribution of physical supplies toward the US, which reduces the amount of freely available metal in other regions.

According to FreshForex analysts, the 6.60–6.80 range is becoming key for CUCUSD. Copper was trading around 6.65 just yesterday, and today it has once again approached the upper end of the range, showing that buyers remain interested. If the price holds above 6.60 over the coming days and does not return to a deeper decline by the beginning of next week, the current consolidation could be viewed as preparation for another upward wave. In this case, a breakout and sustained move above 6.80 could open the way to new local highs, and by the end of September, CUCUSD could well attempt to reach the 7.00 area.

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AI Boom Stumbles: Chipmakers Lose Nearly 6%​

It took just one trading session for the semiconductor sector to lose nearly 6% of its value. On September 14, the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 5.9%, while #NVIDIA shares dropped around 3.4% and #Micron fell more than 5%. The pressure spread across the broader technology market as well, with the Nasdaq ending the day lower.

The main trigger came from warnings issued by AI company executives. Following concerns about the risks of technology developing too quickly, investors seriously began asking for the first time in a while: what will happen to chipmakers if massive spending on artificial intelligence starts to slow down?

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What spooked investors:​

• The market has started reassessing future demand. #NVIDIA and #Micron have been among the biggest beneficiaries of data center construction and growing demand for computing power. Even a hint of a potential slowdown in AI investment is prompting investors to take a more cautious view of future processor and memory sales.
• High interest rates are adding pressure. The yield on 10-year US government bonds briefly exceeded 5%, while expectations of another Fed rate hike remain elevated. The more expensive money becomes, the harder it is for technology stocks to justify high valuations.
• Investors are taking profits after a strong rally. The semiconductor sector remains one of the year's top performers and, even after the sell-off, is still up around 57% since January. Against this backdrop, the emergence of a new risk provided a convenient reason to close some profitable positions.

The problem for the market is that current high valuations of technology companies already largely assume that AI investment will continue growing rapidly. As companies consistently increased spending on equipment and data centers, this scenario worked in favor of chipmakers. Now, the market has to consider the opposite possibility as well.

At the same time, it is still too early to talk about the end of the AI boom. Demand for computing power remains high, and a single day of selling does not change the long-term trend. However, the nearly 6% decline showed just how sensitive the sector has become to any doubts about the future pace of artificial intelligence spending.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as pressure on chipmakers persists, it will be harder for #NQ100 to reach new highs. If US Treasury yields remain around 5% and concerns about a slowdown in AI investment intensify, pressure on the technology index could continue.

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The Fed Raised Rates, Yet Gold Is Still Rising!​

The gold market has once again surprised investors. After the Fed raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, gold did not continue falling. Instead, it reversed higher. On September 17, XAUUSD gained around 1.6% and rose toward $4,330 per ounce, even though prices had fallen to approximately six-week lows just the day before.

At first glance, this reaction may seem illogical: higher interest rates usually strengthen the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal. But this time, the market reacted differently — and that is the key to understanding the current move.

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Why Is Gold Rising Despite Higher Rates?

• The rate hike had already been priced in. The Fed’s decision itself did not come as a surprise to the market. Therefore, after the announcement, some market participants began closing their previous short positions in gold.
• Investors are focused not on the hike itself, but on what comes next. The Fed has indeed maintained a hawkish tone and left the door open to another rate hike before the end of the year. However, the market has already started assessing how far the regulator can actually go if the economy begins to slow down.
• The oil rally has paused. Reduced pressure from oil prices has somewhat eased concerns about another wave of inflation. This is important for gold because it lowers the risk of even more aggressive Fed tightening.
• Demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. Despite the rate hike, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and overall nervousness in global markets have not disappeared. This continues to support interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

For the market, it is now important not only to consider the current interest-rate level, but also how quickly the Fed can continue tightening without causing serious damage to the economy and stock market. This is why gold has an opportunity to recover: investors have seen that a hawkish Fed decision does not necessarily mean an automatic continuation of the XAUUSD sell-off.

According to FreshForex analysts, the current gold recovery shows that the market is still willing to buy XAUUSD dips when signs of stabilization emerge. If prices hold above the $4,300 area, buyers may attempt to extend the move toward $4,400–4,500.

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Bitcoin above $87,000: buyers are back!​

The cryptocurrency market is back in the spotlight. On September 21, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose above $87,000, continuing its strong recovery after recent fluctuations. The move was not isolated: at the same time, the Nasdaq (#NQ100) once again approached its all-time high, while investor interest in riskier assets increased noticeably.

This makes Bitcoin’s current rise particularly interesting. The market is showing that BTC is now moving not only as an independent crypto asset but also as part of broader risk appetite, alongside the U.S. technology sector.

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Why Is Bitcoin Rising Alongside the Index?​

• The market is buying risk again. After several volatile sessions, investors returned to technology stocks, while the Nasdaq moved back toward record levels. This creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin: when risk appetite increases, cryptocurrencies often attract additional capital inflows.
• Bond yields are falling. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 5%. This reduces pressure on risk assets and makes instruments such as BTCUSD and #NQ100 more attractive to investors.
• Oil is no longer putting pressure on the market. Falling oil prices have eased concerns about inflation. The less the market fears another wave of price increases, the more comfortable investors become with growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
• Strong momentum in technology is supporting crypto as well. Gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks have once again strengthened confidence in the technology sector. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is increasingly trading in the same direction as #NQ100 rather than moving independently.

At this point, not only the move above $87,000 matters, but also the nature of the move. While the cryptocurrency market often used to move independently, Bitcoin is now increasingly responding to the same drivers as the U.S. stock market: bond yields, inflation expectations, and overall investor sentiment.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as risk appetite remains strong, Bitcoin has room for further growth. The current correlation with #NQ100 is supporting buyers: a strong technology sector, falling bond yields, and easing inflation concerns are creating a more favorable environment for BTCUSD. If BTCUSD holds above $87,000, the next psychological target for buyers could be $90,000, while a breakout above this level could open the way toward the $92,000–93,000 area.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Dollar pressures euro and pound: currency pairs hit new lows​

The U.S. dollar is ending the week significantly stronger, but this move is particularly evident across the major currency pairs. On September 25, EURUSD is trading around 1.1370 — its lowest level in two months, while GBPUSD is holding near 1.3220 — close to a three-month low. For the euro, this is already the third consecutive week of declines, while the British pound is having its worst week in roughly four months.

The main momentum is coming from the United States. Following the Fed’s September rate hike, investors are increasingly considering the possibility of further monetary tightening, while a sell-off in U.S. government bonds has pushed long-term yields to their highest levels in more than 20 years. Against this backdrop, the Dollar Index has gained more than 1% this week, but for traders, the more important question is how this move is affecting EURUSD and GBPUSD.

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Why EURUSD continues to decline:​

• U.S. interest rates are becoming more attractive again. The Fed has already raised its rate to 3.75–4.00% and continues to signal the possibility of further tightening. The higher the yield on dollar-denominated assets, the harder it becomes for EURUSD to recover.
• The ECB is taking a more cautious approach. The European regulator has also raised its rate to 2.50%, but its officials are trying to contain expectations of rapid further hikes. Christine Lagarde has emphasized that rising energy prices alone are not enough to automatically justify tighter monetary policy.
• Even strong European data are not helping the euro for now. Eurozone business activity in September came in above expectations, yet EURUSD continued to decline. This shows that the divergence in interest-rate expectations and rising U.S. yields are currently more important to the market than individual positive European indicators.

As a result, EURUSD has moved closer to 1.1370. If selling pressure persists, market attention could shift toward the 1.1300 area, while a return above 1.1450 would be the first sign that the current downward move is losing momentum.

Why GBPUSD is falling even faster:​

• The pound’s interest-rate advantage has narrowed. The Bank of England kept its rate at 3.75%, while the Fed raised the upper bound of its target range to 4.00%. The yield differential is therefore providing less support for the British currency.
• The U.K. economy remains weak. Business activity slowed in September, while demand for workers remains under pressure. This limits the Bank of England’s ability to raise rates too quickly.
• High energy prices create a double challenge. They add to inflationary pressure while simultaneously reducing household real incomes and potentially slowing economic growth further.
• The market is already pricing in further tightening. Several future Bank of England rate hikes are partly reflected in current prices, meaning the pound needs new positive catalysts to sustain a recovery.

As a result, GBPUSD has fallen to around 1.3220 and is down approximately 1.25% since the beginning of the week. A move below 1.3200 could increase pressure on the pair, while a return above 1.3300–1.3350 would be the first sign of a potential recovery.

According to FreshForex analysts, as long as U.S. yields remain near multi-year highs, the advantage remains with the dollar, and pressure on EURUSD and GBPUSD may continue.​

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[FreshForexTeam]

Oil back near $100: U.S. reserves at their lowest since 1982​

The oil market has once again approached a key psychological level. #BRENT is trading around $99.70, recovering after recently falling into the $96–97 range. At the same time, the fundamental backdrop remains tense: U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 283.8 million barrels — the lowest level since October 1982, while the situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose a risk of supply disruptions.

What is supporting oil prices right now:​

• U.S. oil reserves are at their lowest level in more than 40 years. The ability to quickly offset major supply disruptions with additional releases from strategic reserves has become significantly more limited.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of uncertainty. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is still far from a final resolution, so the risk of disruptions to oil supplies continues to be reflected in prices.
• Alternative logistics are more expensive. Exporters have to rely on more complicated transportation and transshipment routes, increasing costs and supporting crude prices.
• Negotiations are simultaneously limiting the upside. Any signs of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran quickly bring sellers back into the market. As a result, price action remains volatile: several dollars of gains can be followed by an equally rapid correction.

It is precisely this uncertainty that is keeping #BRENT within a broad range. Over the past few sessions, the price has fallen to around $96, climbed back above $100, and then corrected again. This shows that the market has not yet settled on a clear direction, but buyers continue to return actively on dips.

According to FreshForex analysts, the key range for #BRENT right now is $97–101. If oil remains mostly within this range through the beginning of October and does not establish itself below $97, this would indicate that demand is holding up after each correction. In that case, a decisive move above $101 could push the price first toward the $103–105 area and, if tensions surrounding supplies persist, potentially open the way toward $106 and higher. For now, low U.S. reserve levels and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to leave room for a significant move higher, rather than simply fluctuations around the $100 level.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 1, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 82850, SL 84300, TP 77000.

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Bitcoin continues its desperate resistance. This has once again delayed the emergence of another downward wave of the anticipated correction.

It is likely that a downward movement will occur today after all. It may turn out that the formed downward wave will become a full-fledged final one for the zigzag correction. After this, price growth will resume.

However, it is necessary to monitor how events develop subsequently. For now, it is recommended to consider opening a sell trade at current market prices.

Investment idea: SELL 82850, SL 84300, TP 77000.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Micron Hits Record Highs, but the Stock Barely Rises​

Micron (#Micron) released a strong quarterly earnings report and confirmed that demand for memory used in artificial intelligence systems remains high. However, the market reaction was much more muted than might have been expected after such results.

In trading on September 30, #Micron shares rose above $1,082 but failed to break through $1,083 and closed the session around $1,066. No significant new momentum emerged after the earnings report either. For traders, this is an important signal: good news is already largely priced into the company’s valuation, so the market now needs increasingly strong catalysts for the rally to continue.

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What matters now for #Micron and #NQ100:​

• #Micron has hit resistance around $1,080–1,083. Buyers have approached the upper boundary several times but have so far failed to break and hold above it. This area is now becoming the nearest resistance level.
• $1,050 remains the first significant support level. As long as the stock holds above it, the current price action can be viewed as consolidation following a strong rally. A move below $1,050 would increase the likelihood of a deeper profit-taking phase.
• #NVIDIA remains an important part of the same story. Strong demand for memory used in AI servers confirms that investment in computing infrastructure is continuing. This supports not only #Micron but also the major manufacturers of artificial intelligence hardware.
• #NQ100 is holding above 30,000 points. The index closed the previous session around 30,400, maintaining its position near record highs. As long as the technology index remains above 30,000, overall interest in the artificial intelligence sector remains strong.

The situation is particularly interesting because the industry’s fundamental backdrop remains strong, while #Micron’s share price has stopped reacting sharply to positive news. This means the market has moved from simply anticipating business growth to more closely assessing whether future results can exceed already-high expectations.

According to FreshForex analysts, the base-case scenario for #Micron remains further growth. As long as the stock holds above $1,050, the current consolidation can be viewed as preparation for another attempt to break through the $1,083 area. Another argument supporting buyers is that Micron has already secured agreements covering a large portion of its HBM memory output for 2027, meaning the company has secured demand in advance for one of the most supply-constrained and profitable products used in AI servers. A sustained break above $1,083 could open the way toward $1,100–1,120, while #NQ100 remaining above 30,000 points would provide additional support for this scenario.

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[FreshForexTeam]

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 02, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

USDJPY:

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Inflation in Tokyo gave the yen fresh support: the core measure excluding fresh food accelerated in September to 2.7% from 1.8%, exceeding expectations of 2.4%. Core inflation excluding fresh food and fuel reached 3%, and services inflation also strengthened. This expands the case for further Bank of Japan rate hikes, although part of the acceleration is linked to the end of subsidies.

High US bond yields continue to support the dollar, but their rise cannot be fully explained by expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike. Softer US inflation and cautious signals from the regulator have reduced the likelihood of an immediate move. Amid European budget risks, safe-haven demand could support both the dollar and the yen, so their ratio requires separate assessment.

For USD/JPY, the new Japanese inflation signal now creates grounds for a decline despite the persistent interest rate differential. The US employment report could cancel this scenario if strong wage growth again fuels expectations of Fed tightening. Prior to the release, the base idea is to sell the pair: yen support relies on new data, not just the risk of currency intervention.

Trading idea: SELL 157.95, SL 158.30, TP 157.15

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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 05, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

11:00 EET. EUR - Composite PMI Index

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index

EURUSD:

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The Euro approaches the new session with a noticeably weaker starting position. The fiscal situation in France and the risk of political gridlock continue to weigh on confidence in eurozone assets, while today's final business activity indices will only refine the assessment of growth rates. After a prolonged decline, part of the negative backdrop is already reflected in the price, so further movement requires sustained fresh pressure.

On the US side, the picture is mixed. A weak September employment report significantly reduced the likelihood of another Fed rate hike in October, but high Treasury yields and dollar demand amid stress in debt markets continue to support the US currency. For EUR/USD, this leaves the advantage with the dollar, although its strengthening potential has become less one-sided.

A significant portion of the daily decline has already been realized, so the remaining potential is assessed more cautiously. A reversal factor would be further declines in US yields or noticeably stronger eurozone data. Until that happens, French risks and the relative advantage of the dollar keep the priority on EUR/USD downside.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1180, SL 1.1215, TP 1.1095

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