FxInstructor Technical Analysis on Euro & Cable

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - January 9, 2008

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed an inside bar on Tuesday and until now, today's price action has been contained inside yesterday's as the pair covered only 40 points from low to high. The intermediary resistance at 1.4735 has so far proven to be a strong one and this is in line with our previous comments, that while we're trading below 1.4750 we should look for possible short targets; moving under the 1.4700 round number should give us a more clearer bearish signal at least for short term. Conversely a push in the 1.4750-1.4800 area will get us closer to the trendline we have marked on our daily chart below and will force us to be more cautious about opening new shorts.

Resistance Levels
1.5000-- round number
1.4966- Nov 23rd high
1.4735 –Nov 9th High


Support Levels

1.4500- round number
1.4300 – Sept 30th High
1.4000 – Round number
1.3850 – July 24th High

GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd tested once again the 1.9800 resistance line after a piece of news got out of the UK yesterday's morning but has slowly started to move lower in the afternoon and n today's late Asian session and early European session we witnessed a sharp 140 points move that has taken out the previous weekly lows and is now getting very close to the 1.9600 support area. We were right in our assessment that the trend is still bearish but our mentioning of a possible retest of the 2.000 area has not came true as the pair broke the closest support level on its way to 1.9600. If the momentum keeps up we have to start looking at the 1.9550 level as the next significant bearish target and support zone.


Resistance Levels

2.1148 – Nov 9th High
2.1065 – Nov 7th High
2.0650 – July 24th High
2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels
2.0000 – Round number
1.9800 – Round Number
1.9670 – August 17th Low

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - January 10, 2008

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro broke lower on Wednesday getting below 1.4700 and printed a low at 1.4640. The downside momentum is not that big but the pair is slowly heading lower as expected, next bearish target is the 1.4600 round level which coincides with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement line of the bigger move north from October's 1.4000 low to November's 1.4967 record high. Looking at the daily chart below we can spot clearly the next areas where eurUsd might found support and these are 1.4600 and 1.4500 both levels that have proven to be relevant to price action in the past.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd moved more than 200 points yesterday and after smashing through the 1.9670 support line it touched the 1.9550 zone where it found support and the pair has been trading just above that level for the last few hours. Although on the shorter timeframes we are seing a consolidation range forming after yesterday's drop the bearish momentum is still strong and a further move down is to be expected, the pair needs to break the above mentioned 1.9550 support and after that the next major bearish target is the 1.9100 round number. Conversely a retracement towards the 1.9670 now turned into resistance is not to be ruled out but if that happens the sentiment is that bears will just get a new opportunity to add new positions.




Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - January 11, 2008

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro bounced back to retest that broken trendline we have marked on our daily charts, the move came as a bit of surprise to us after the ECB rate announcement on Thursday as we expected the pair to print a new low; well, we failed to make a new low and the quote just shot up breaking through the 1.4700/1.4735 resistance area and only stopping just above 1.4800 at the touch of the above mentioned trendline. At this moment in time we are in a tough zone, although the pair is in overbought territory on the daily chart more and more traders are starting to look once again at the 1.5000 as a serious target after the ECB decided to hold the interest rate. Breaking above yesterday's high will bring the pair in throwing distance of the current record high at 1.4965and with a solid chance of reaching the 1.5000 target.

Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd traded inside a small range on Thursday, waiting for the BOE rate announcement and after that got out other than a small spike to 1.9670 the pair closed just a few points higher than the open; in today's Asian session we saw a bigger move down that stopped at the 1.9500 area where it seemed to have found some decent support as we are witnessing a small retrace to the 1.9565 level which is the middle of today's 150 point drop. Yesterday's price action on cable, unlike that on the EurUsd, developed in line with our expectations that we mentioned them in our previous commentary, and for today we expect the down move to continue although the momentum has slowed down a bit, this day will be a good chance to see if the 1.9500 support zone is as strong as expected.



Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

 

[fxinstructor]

Weekly-Daily Forex Technical View - January 14

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro opened the week trading lower and slowly slipped toward the 1.4600 support level but after failing to make a new low on Thursday, the day of the ECB interest rate announcement, at 1.4640 it pushed higher for the rest of that day and retested once again an important resistance trendline just above 1.4800. Trading on Friday was slow as the pair stayed contained inside a small range around the 1.4800 level. We have reached a point where bullish traders, the ones that have their sights set on 1.5000, fight with the ones that look at the USD strength and expect a move lower toward the December low at 1.4300. We, for the time being, maintain our rather bearish point of view and that is the following, as long as the the 1.4825 resistance holds we look for shorting opportunities, a break above that resistance will force us to start looking for a test of the 2007 1.4966 November high before reaching the 1.500 psychological target.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd continued the drop and broke under 1.9670 on Wednesday after a retest of the 1.9800 resistance on Tuesday morning, the pair found support at the 1.9550 area and printed a weekly low at 1.9480 on Friday but closed the week trading just a few pips above the 1.9550 level. Looking at the weekly chart below we can see the next big bearish target and support level at 1.9180 but that seems pretty far away at the moment and there are a lot of things to consider that might affect the current bearish momentum, perhaps the most important one is FED interest rate decision. So far our projection on cable have come true in 2008 but it's only been a few days, we expect the pair to move lower and a consistent break of the 1.9550 support will definitely be a big help, conversely a bounce from the current levels supported by the fact that we are in an oversold area on the most of the larger timeframes could trigger a healthier retracement perhaps even toward the 2.0000 level.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - January 15, 2008

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro printed a new high on Monday at 1.4915 just at the the up sloping trendline connecting August and September 2007 lows. The pair got in touching distance of the 1.4966 high and it still got a chance to get there in the next few days even if it doesn't break decisively above the mentioned trendline. Forming a toppish pattern around the 2007 high or close to the 1.5000 psychological target will give bears a new opportunity to open shorts as we see the beginning of a bearish divergence on the higher timeframes. We didn't expect the pair to move this high but after making a new high and showing some bullish momentum we are starting to look at what will happen if and when we will reach the 1.5000 level, like we said it'll be a good place to short but there are already numerous voices in the markets that say it will go even higher.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd has entered into a consolidation period after it broke the 1.9670 support line; failing to move lower, we have bounced a few times of the 1.9550 support zone and so far there are little signs that indicate a break is imminent. Overall the momentum is bearish and consolidation periods are usually a continuation pattern, so in this case we can expect the south move to resume at one point but, without a decisive break below 1.9550 we remain on the sidelines. Conversely another bounce of the support will open up 1.9670 as a valid short term bullish target and that is just 80 points under the December low at 1.9750.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low
* 1.9180

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - January 16, 2008

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed a bearish outside bar on Tuesday, price action very volatile with the pair moving higher early in the trading day and after just taking out Mondays high for a couple of points it fell straight down closing the day around the 1.4800 level. We mentioned yesterday that if the EurUsd formed a toppish pattern around the yearly high would give bears a new opportunity to short, well the pattern formed and although we failed to retest the November 2007 highs there are signs new shorts have entered the marked, especially after yesterday's downside momentum. A push decisively below 1.4800 will reinforce the short term bearish sentiment and will more than likely bring the pair lower toward last weeks low at 1.4640/50 support area. Conversely lack of strength on the bears part will keep the pair trading around these levels until we get some news that will force it to retest the 1.4930 intermediary resistance.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd is trading at the exact same level as it was when our previous commentary was written even though we had a 200 points move yesterday; the pair just pushed higher until it run out of steam close to the December low at 1.9750 and after that it fell right back to where the move started. The resistance at 1.9750 is strong, there we have the December 24 swing low, the middle of the small consolidation range at the start of January and a down sloping trendline connecting the December 12th and 31st swing highs. Although it broke to the upside the smaller triangle on intraday timeframes cable has failed at conserving the bullish momentum and is now very close to the lower part of the triangle and we might see a push south below the 1.95550 support with the first target being the 1.9480 January 11th low.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low
* 1.9180

 

[fxinstructor]

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro confirmed the bearish pattern formed on Tuesday and the pair fell sharply on Wednesday supported also by some dovish commentaries from and ECB banker. Yesterday's range was over 250 points, we haven't seen such a long candle since mid December, it broke through the closest intermediary support levels and only stopped and bounce back a little around the 1.4600 zone which is also the 61.8 Fibonacci line of the bigger move north from last year. A break below 1.4600 will confirm the current bearish momentum and will get us closer to the 1.4500 level, the next significant target and support level. Conversely a bounce back from here will bring the pair right back in the 1.4600/1.4835 congestion area.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd performed pretty much the same for two consecutive days this week, on Tuesday and Wednesday the pair failed to make a lower low and bounced from the 1.9550 support zone only to fall tight back in the afternoon; the exception is that on Wednesday it didn't printed a higher high. So far today we have a range of over 110 points and have already tested yesterday's high at 1.9720 but is now trading lower. This week has clearly been a consolidation one, where GbpUsd tried several times to break below 1.9550 and failed and also the area above 1.9700 proved to be tough resistance, fin order to see a bigger move we have to wait until we have a clear signal that either the above mentioned support or resistance level have a good chance of being broken, otherwise we recommend caution and patience on this pair.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low
* 1.9180

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - January 18, 2008

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd lacked the strength to push through the 1.4600 support level so far, yesterday we saw the par print a new weekly low but it didn't have the stamina to continue the move form Wednesday. We are pretty much in the same place as yesterday morning, the pair is trading just above the 1.4600 level and is trying to get lower, a break below 1.4600 will confirm the current bearish momentum and will get us closer to the 1.4500 level, the next significant target and support level. Conversely a bounce back from here will bring the pair right back in the 1.4600/1.4835 congestion area.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd has a spectacular development on Thursday, it tested the 1.9700 resistance then fell back to close to 1.9600 only to swing back up again and this time it got as high as 1.9790 before retracing once again. In today's Asian session the pair traded more calmly but slowly move lower, when the UK news got out, just a few minutes ago, the par fell sharply and broke below the intermediary support at 1.9650 and at 1.9600 and is now getting closer to the 1.9550 area. This last move looks like it might have enough bearish momentum to finally break out of this weeks range and start a stronger move south toward the 1.9180 bearish target. Conversely a bounce from the 1.9550 that will get the pair trading above 1.9600 will force us once again in the range and will have to look at 1.9670 as an important resistance.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low
* 1.9180

 

[fxinstructor]

Weekly-Daily Forex Technical View - January 21

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd failed to print a new high on the weekly chart, it stopped just under the November 23rd high at 1.4966 at the resistance offered by the trendline that connects August and September 2007 swing lows. Breaking the weekly movement on a daily basis we see that Monday the pair pushed higher and although it made a new high on Tuesday after that we had a straight down move supported by a speech from an ECB banker and the fact the EurUsd was trading in an overbought area. The weekly low was made on Thursday at 1.4587 and after that we saw the bearish momentum slowing down and the pair closed just above 1.4600. We maintain our bearish bias for the following days with the mention that Monday is a holiday in the US and trading might be slow; perhaps the most important bearish target is December 20th low at 1.4300 which is also an important support level a place where bullish traders will want to use as a base for a repeat of December's movement.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd traded between two important support and resistance levels for the most part of the week, after bouncing from the 1.9550 zone it was rejected by the resistance area above 1.9700 and this scenario repeated 3 times during this past week; only On Thursday the pair managed to spike up toward the 1.9800 level but it lacked strength to stay there and fell back to close the week pips away from the 1.9550 base. A continuation of Friday's move in the next few days will certainly confirm the bearish trend for the last couple of months, a break below 1.9550 will open up the road to 1.9180 as the main bearish target and support level. Conversely a bounce from the 1.9550 that will get the pair trading above 1.9600 will force us once again in the above mentioned range and we will have to look at 1.9670 as the next short term target. Same as in the EurUsd case the pairs trading volume on Monday will be affected by the US holiday and to some extent we could witness some erratic price action or a very mellow day.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low
* 1.9180

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - January 23, 2008

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd recovered in yesterday's session all the points it lost on Monday and than some; after starting the day moving lower the pair bounced from the 1.4360 area and support by fundamental reasons, mainly the FED 0.75% interest rate cut, it pushed higher forming an outside bar on the daily charts and printing a weekly high just below 1.4700. Yesterday's price action was an pretty interesting, what seemed to be a retracement to a resistance line turned into a large scale move of more 300 points; today's development could be just as important as the markets are still under the influence of the FED decision and not everyone is completely sold on the lack strength or more likely the weakness of US dollar at the current interest rates. One should trade very carefully these days as we already saw the situation can change very quickly.

Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd continued on Tuesday morning the move started on Monday but all of a sudden it reversed on a dime and pushed higher, at first seemed to be a retest of the 1.9500 resistance but when the FED interest rate cut announcement got out the pair moved another 150 points to print a daily hight at 1.9650. We were on right with our assessment that a break under 1.9550 will open up the road toward the 1.9180 target but one couldn't have foreseen the rather surprising move from the US central bank; looking at the chart below we see that yesterday's high was pretty close to the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement line of the 1.9790/1.9337 down move and with the oscillators already in overbought territory the bearish bias is still present, and US dollar bulls might not be shaken by the latest developments. A move above yesterday's high at 1.9650 will certainly give bulls a chance to open new trades but the same is true for bears if the pair continues to slip. Caution is of the essence as more surprises could lie ahead.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low
* 1.9180