FxInstructor Technical Analysis on Euro & Cable

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - December 13, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd formed an inside green bar on the daily charts on Wednesday, failing to print a new high but managed to close the day a few points above the 1.4700 round number. We are in the same situation as yesterday and while we are trading below this weeks highs we expect the pair to resume it's down move, first target is the 1.4600 level before getting closer to last weeks lows at 1.4525 and that ascending trendline we have marked on our daily chart seen below. Conversely a push above 1.4770 will force us to look at future resistance areas and will bring forward the current YTD high at 1.4967 as the main bullish target.

Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


Cable got very close to the descending trendline marked on the chart below in what appears to be an intraday spike that happened when US news got out, the pair has since then started to move lower slowly and has just tested the 2.0400 support area in what we interpret as a downtrend continuation. First short target is of course the 2.0365 area and if we get there we will have too look at last weeks low at 2.0180 as the main mid term bearish target and support area. Looking at the daily chart below we can see the pair has either closed or opened around the 2.0440 area all week and that clearly indicates the importance of that level and that fact the cable has lacked energy to move higher decisively, this comes to support our overall bearish sentiment of this pair.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - December 14, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd started to move lower on Thursday after failing to print a new high, the 1.4700 area proving to be tough resistance; the pair has got very close to the ascending trendline connecting two October swing lows and a break below this will open up at first the 1.4500 area as the next bearish target followed by the 38.2 Fibonacci Line at 1.4380. The downside momentum has increased and now we just have to wait and see if its strong enough to break the support level and make a new monthly low.

Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


Cable tested the 2.0365 area yesterday but failed to stay there and retraced above the 2.0400 level, and now we see the pair making another attempt to break below that strong support level, if this will happen we have our sights set on December 6th low at 2.0180 as the closest bearish target although price action might need a couple of days to move that much. This week's moves have given the 2.0445 area a new importance as that was the place where the pair closed on Monday and Wednesday and a level that it has managed to keep the price below it; this comes as an addition to the fact that at the exact same area we already had a support being established on November 15 and 16th .




Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

Weekly-Daily Forex Technical View - December 17, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro formed a big red candle on the weekly charts, as seen below, but the most part of the move was made on Thursday and Friday when the pair dropped almost 300 points, we witnessed a small consolidation period for the first 3 days of the week around the 1.4700 area. On Friday EurUsd broke through the closest support levels and pushed lower towards the 1.4400 area getting close to the 38.02 Fibonacci retracement line of the October-November move north that established the current YTD high at 1.4967. Breaking below the trendline connecting the October lows was a a clear bearish signal although a retest of the 1.4500 area is not out of the question in the next couple of days as this particular area has proved to be strong support turned now into resistance. Looking at the big picture we can see the 1.4300 area as the main bearish target and a place where the pair could find significant support as the bullish traders will try to establish a new base there.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd put in a third consecutive down week, and although it just pipped last weeks low the strength of the move from Friday gave a clear bearish signal. The pair started the week trading higher and it moved towards the resistance line connecting the YTD high at 2.1140 and November 28th high of 2.0825, after a touch of this trendline we saw the pair losing ground and a strong move on Friday it got below the 2.0200 area and closed the week around the 2.0180 December 6th low. We are getting once again closer to the lower side of the up sloping channel the pair has traded this year, the area around the 2.0100 could offer significant support and bulls might take advantage and try to reverse the down trend from the last few weeks. Our projected target of 2.0020 might not be touched if the above mentioned channel stays intact, or on the other hand a sharp move down and a reversal might complete our objective and the monthly bullish trend will remain intact.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - December 19, 2007

GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd just poked once again the 2.0100 support level and right as this commentary is written the pair is trading slightly under the trendline that marks the lower side of the bullish channel. So far the pair has traded within our expectations between the 2.0200 resistance and the 2.0100 support for the last couple of days but we have a piece of news(BOE minutes) coming from the UK central bank today that could have a major effect on the pair and start a more serious move. Breaking below the current lows brings us closer to our Fibonacci Expansion target at 2.0020 area and will possibly open up the 2.00 round area as the next major support zone on the charts. Conversely a move higher will have to break the 2.0200 resistance which so far has proven to be a strong one.



Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro printed a second consecutive doji like bar on Tuesday trading around the 1.4400 level, and being contained inside Monday's range. Just like yesterday morning we are seeing the pair trading a few pips lower after today's Asian session getting very close to the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement line of the October-November move north that established the current YTD high at 1.4967. We are still waiting for a breakout at first outside yesterday's 70 pip range and than to see a continuation of that move and break Monday's levels. A dash lower will have to get below the above mentioned fibonacci level and head for the next one the 23.6 Fib at 1.4242 which is very close to an ascending trendline we have marked on our chart that is connecting former yearly highs and has turned from a resistance line into a support one.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - December 20, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro broke lower on Wednesday by just a few pips but the overall price action of the day has given us a bearish bias and we expect the pair to touch is not go under the 1.4300 later on today. Lower down we have the 23.6 Fibonacci line at 1.4242 of the October-November move north which is very close to an ascending trendline we have marked on our chart that is connecting former yearly highs and has turned from a resistance line into a support one. Conversely a turnaround in price will have to break above 1.4450 which at the moment is the closest intermediary resistance before one could expect a a move above 1.4500 area.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd struggled for a bit yesterday around the 2.0030 but it finally managed to break lower, and this came as a bit of surprise to us, and after the 2.00 round was breached the pair fell for another 65-70 points and is now looking like its heading for the 1.9900 area. Looking at the daily chart below we can see that the 2.0100 area has now turned into resistance but in order to get there we have to take into consideration the 2.00 level. Overall the bearish sentiment prevails especially after yesterday's strong move and although a retracement to the above mentioned levels is possible we expect the pair to move lower.



Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0200 – Round number
* 2.0000 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - December 21, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro failed to reach the 1.4300 round number on Thursday and stopped only pips away; after that the pair bounced back and in today's Asian session we saw it make an intraday high at 1.4400. Unless something unexpected happens we think we are going to trade around the current levels at least until the US session when we could see a stronger move forming. Looking for support and resistance level we have to take into consideration the current weeks high and low at 1.4450 and 1.4310 respectively as the closest levels that need to be broken for the pair to move either way.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd broke below 1.9900during yesterday's trading and moved lower only to find support close to the 1.9800 area where we can see there is also a trendline connecting July's and September swing highs at 2.0650 and 2.0365 respectively. From a technical point of view a retrace towards the former support area now turned into resistance at 2.0100 has a fair chance of happening and that will give bears a new opportunity to add to their positions; however considering the momentum we've had in the last few days a continuation lower is not to be ruled out as it is clear that the Gbp has lost most of its energy.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0200 – Round number
* 2.0000 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - January 3-2008

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro has started the new year trading very close to the 1.4735 resistance and is starting to give us a bearish sentiment, as we can see clearly on the chart below the daily charts have entered into an overbought area while trading just under an important resistance zone. While below 1.4735 and the upsloping trendline we have marked on our charts it is safe to say that bears have a bigger chance of taking over in the next few days. Getting back to regular trading after the holidays is always tricky, the market has to find it's rhythm again and fall back into the everyday path.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd failed to stay above 2.0000 in the short trading hours we've had so far in 2008 and although the pair hasn't yet printed a new low this is to be expected in the next few days; momentum is clearly bearish and getting below 1.9800 round number will certainly reinforce the USD bulls trading on this pair. Closest support is the above mentioned 1.9800 zone which although was already breached briefly in yesterday's session we haven't yet seen a strong move under it, once that happens a small retrace to retest the zone and turn it into an resistance one will give the signal for new positions to be added on the short side.



Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - January 4-2008

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro is trading at the exact same spot where it was when we issued out our previous daily commentary, only today the pair is moving slightly downwards after touching the resistance line offered by the upsloping trendline we have marked on our charts, as seen below. The situation hasn't changed that much, we are still trading in an overbought area on the daily charts and we are below a major resistance area, if the pair doesn't manage to break this resistance and push higher we maintain our bearish bias and expect a move towards the December low at 1.4300.

Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd continued to move lower on Thursday, managing with every intraday swing low to just take out the previous one, the pair found some support above the 1.9700 level but right as this commentary is written we are witnessing another attempt at breaking lower, an attempt that will probably be successful later on in the day. Yesterday's price action confirmed our view, after we broke below 1.9800 we had a retracement to estblish that the level turned from a support one into an resistance, we expect something similar today once the pair gets below 1.9700 and starts moving towards the next support and bearish target the 1.9670 level.



Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low

 

[fxinstructor]

Weekly-Daily Forex Technical View - January 7

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro recovered in the last week of 2007 and got above 1.4700 where the pair traded in the past few days, and formed a hammer candle on the weekly chart(as seen below). While we are trading below Friday's high at 1.4830 we maintain our bearish bias on this pair and expect a move lower aiming at first for the 1.4600 area as an intermediary target before the 1.4300 December low. EurUsd is trading in an overbought area close to a strong resistance level on the daily chart and this is one of the facts that makes us think the pair is going to go lower. Conversely a move above Friday's high will certainly be a blow to shorts and perhaps shift focus towards the psychological target of 1.5000, a target we failed to reach in November.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd broke the upsloping channel it has traded in for most of last year and after a timid retest of the 2.0100 area we have seen the pair move sharply lower in the first days of 2008 reaching the support line at 1.9670 which is August 17th swing low. Price action in the week in front of us will have to confirm either the bearish trend or the 1.9670 strong support; we think the pair is going lower although a small bounce from the support is not to be ruled out. Next major bearish target is the 1.9550 area, if cable gets there it will certainly open up the road towards the 1.9100 support. The next few days will be crucial to how the pair will continue to perform for the rest of the month, looking at the former years we can see that January has been an important month, a time where either the low or high of the trading year was established.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low

 

[fxinstructor]

EUR/USD Technical View
Euro confirmed our bearish expectations on Monday and moved below 1.4700 although the strength of the move wasn't big we saw the pair print a low of 1.4655 before bouncing back up in today's Asian session. As long as the 1.4750 level stays unchallenged we maintain our bearish bias and expect a continuation south, but if the pair starts to trade closer to the 1.4750-1.4800 resistance area we think that EurUSd will enter into a consolidation period and those are more of a continuation pattern than a reversal one, so the chances of going higher increase significantly.
Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4966- Nov 23rd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High

GbpUsd Technical View GbpUsd failed to print a new low on Monday Afternoon and in the Asian session it started to retrace higher and already it covered more than 160 points trading just above the 1.9800 resistance. Overall the trend still points south but we have to be aware that a retest of the 2.000 area is possible, as we are not that far away. Closest support level is now the 1.9750 a bounce from here will reinforce the short term longs and will increase the chances of another leg up; on the north side we have to look at the 1.9900 and 2.000 as the next bullish targets and strong resistance levels that can have an impact over GbpUsd price action.
Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0365 – September 12th High

Support Levels

* 2.0000 – Round number
* 1.9800 – Round Number
* 1.9670 – August 17th Low