FxInstructor Technical Analysis on Euro & Cable

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View -November 8, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd printed, again, a new record high on Wednesday at 1.4728 after an almost 200 points gain based mostly on a piece of fundamental news regarding China's currency reserve. The pair broke above a trendline that for a short period of time looked like it might offer some resistance and once it got above EurUsd never looked back while pushing higher. WE saw a retracement in the second part of the day to the 0.50 Fib of the daily average but that just gives buyers a better place to go long, aiming again for the current YTD high at 1.4728. We have to be careful in the next few hours as there is another piece of news coming out today just before the start of the NY session, the ECB interest rate announcement that move the price substantially.



Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4728 –Nov 7th High
* 1.4500- round number

Support Levels

* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3930 – September 13th high
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


Also benefiting for the weaker US dollar GbpUsd touched and broke above 2.1000 a level seen by many including us as the main short term bullish target. Price action on Wednesday was very similar to that of the EurUSd, cable printed high after high and in the final hours it retraced towards the 0.50 Fib Line where it found some support that allowed bullish traders to reload. We also have to wait for the UK central bank decision regarding rates that comes out in a few hours, a decision that could have a significant impact on the markets depending whether they will cut or the lingo used in the statement. The pair has been trading around the 2.1000 level for the last hours and it looks like its taking a breather after the violent moves this week.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0893 –Nov 2nd High


Support Levels

* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

Weekly-Euro And Cable November 12th

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro opened the week finding some resistance around the 1.4500 level and we witnessed a small drop on Monday, for the rest of the week the pair moved higher making higher highs all of this culminating with Friday's top at 1.4735. Most of the week was in line with our bullish assessment, and only Friday's price action came as a surprise, after printing a new high rumors started that resulted in a US dollar strengthening across the board and made EurUsd form a doji like bar on the daily charts. The start of next week will help us determine if the US dollar gave us a strong reversal signal or the latest move was just a small correction. Closest support is represented by the up sloping trendline we can see on the daily charts, that should offer a good base for a new bounce up considering it's also very close to the 1.4600 support level.

Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


Cable opened last Sunday night trading just below 2.0900 and slipped lower on Monday to form what proved to be the weekly low at 2.0775; the rest of the week GbpUsd pushed higher making record tops every day, breaking above 2.1000 and 2.1100 to reach an all time high of 2.1142. Friday's violent move caught most technical traders by surprise as it was triggered by a UK banking rumor, at the end of the day cable lost more than 350 points and closed the week trading just a few points above 2.0900. The pair was in an overbought area close to the upper side of the channel it has been trading in for the last few months and the rumor just gave bears a good opportunity to put pressure and to sink the pair. As far as technical levels are concerned a continuation of Friday's move will get the pair close to the 2.0775 support level which is also close to the 31.8 Fib retracement level of the last move up from 2.0245 to 2.1142. A bounce from the current levels will shift focus once again on the 2.100 level Friday's 50. Fib Line and if we look higher up towards the YTD high at 2.1142.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High

Support Levels

* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View -November 13, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro followed the other majors and lost ground against the the US dollar on Monday, the pair broke below the support trendline and the 1.4600 level only to find support a few points above 1.4500. After yesterday's big move down, more than 140 points, we are seeing the pair bounce back up, it has already recovered most of the lost ground and is trading again above 1.4600. The volatility has clearly increased in the last few days and that has affected almost every pair, having changed the way price action develops usually, EurUsd mid term trend is still bullish although we have seen a repositioning in the market mostly based on fundamental reasons. The main target for longs is now the YTD high at 1.4735 which has so far proven to be a good resistance level as well. On the other hand a failure to resume the up trend will push the pair lower perhaps below the 1.4500 support area.



Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


Cable continued Friday's move with another spectacular day on Monday, covering more than 300 points and breaking through support levels until it reached the 2.0520 area which is very close to the starting point of the October push north. Same as the Euro, GbpUsd has bounced back in the Asian session and is now trading around the 2.0650 resistance area. The most was not triggered by any technical view, and was mostly based on the UK banking rumors, so its hard to say if it has come to a stop or not. Looking at the daily chart we can see the 2.0500 support area just below today's low and if the pair starts dropping again we will enter into a former consolidation area filled with formed highs and lows that can provide support and resistance levels and price targets. On the north side the first targets are the 50.0 and 61.8 Fib Retracement levels of the last fall, around 2.0825 and 2.0750 respectively.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High

Support Levels

* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View -November 15, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro printed a green bar on the daily charts yesterday, and although it pushed above 1.4700 to a make a daily high at 1.4726 it lacked the energy to stay there and it retraced close to the current trading level of 1.4680. The area above 1.4700 proves to be tough resistance as we've already mentioned in our previous commentary but the pair still maintains, for the time being, its bullish bias. Again we have to reiterate that we have our sights set on the current YTD high at 1.4735, if the pair crosses decisively above 1.4700 we should reach that target by the end of the week, yesterday the pair was just a few pips away from making a new high. On the other side, if the 1.4700/1.4735 area proves to tough it might push the pair lower and first support is around the 1.4600 and the up sloping trendline.



Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High

GbpUsd Technical View


Cable made a spectacular day on Wednesday, after touching the 50.0 Fib line of the 2.1140/2.0515 down move the pair fell sharply for more than 300 points and it only stopped at the 2.0500 support zone and previous weeks low. For a continuation lower the pair will have to break below 2.0500 and the trendline we have marked on our charts, if that happens we expect a move towards 2.0365 and a retest of the 2.0500 area before moving any lower. On the other hand looking at the daily charts we can see that GbpUsd is slowly entering into an overbought area and considering we are trading close to a support area the pair might once again bounce up and trade towards the weekly open.




Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High

Support Levels

* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View -November 16, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

Euro traded between 1.4600 and 1.4700 on Thursday but it closed the day lower than it opened, and right now the pair is slipping lower, below the 1.4600 support level and also under the trendline we have marked on our charts. Failing to reach a new high has put pressure on the pair and this is starting to show, the markets are showing signs of shifting towards the USD as a safe currency. Looking at support and resistance level we can see that once below 1.4600, the closest important area is 1.4500/1.4520 here the pair should find support and if the move lower has enough energy and we break this support area the next one is at 1.4375/1.4400 which is also where we have a second up sloping trendline. Conversely the pair might change it's direction and start to head north, although at the moment that has not many chances of happening we can keep an eye on the 1.4700/1.4735 area as the main resistance that needs to be broken in order to see the pair make a higher high.


Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High

GbpUsd Technical View


Cable continued to loose groung against the US dollar on Thursday, as we mentioned in our previous commentary the pair broke the 2.0500 support line and put in another down day of over 200 points. Next support and bearish target is September 12th high at 2.0365, but until 2.0250 the pair has a lot of former highs and lows to break established in the October trading range. A retest of the 2.0500 could happen before we see a bigger drop considering the pair is in an oversold area on the daily charts and the bullish traders out there might look at every opportunity as an add in chance. The bearish momentum has picked up speed and a return to the long trend seems unlikely while the pair is trading below 2.0500.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High

Support Levels

* 2.0650 – July 24th High

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

Weekly-Euro And Cable November 19th

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd formed an inside bar on the weekly charts, as seen below, we witnessed a sharp move down on Monday and after that the pair bounced back and although it tried to test the 1.4735 YTD high it lacked the energy to stay above 1.4700 and gave us some weakness signs on Thursday and early Friday, only managing a small gain in Friday's US session and closed the week around the 1.4650 level. The bullish momentum has clearly slowed down and we have even seen some signs of an US dollar strength, while trading above 1.4500 and that up sloping trendline we have on our charts the bias is still bullish but a failure to trade higher and form or even contest the current YTD high will put additional pressure on the pair and we could see a stronger retracement. On the south side the closest support is represented by the 1.4600 level followed lower by the 1.4500/1.4515 area, if the pair gets below that we can say that the pair has entered into a retracement move.


Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


Cable moved significantly lower this week, after hitting the top side of the trading channel its been in for a few months last week it just sinked this week for more than 500 points; most of the drop was realized on Monday and Wednesday with Tuesday being a rebound day after the pair found some support just above the 2.0500 area, but the pressure was to big and and we saw a weekly low at 2.0365 on Friday, a level that has proven once again to be significant support. After reaching 2.0365 the pair moved higher in the US session and traded above 2.0500 pointing to us that the retracement move might have come to an end. Cable needs to get closer to the 2.0650 area before one can be more confident that the down move is over. Conversely a new slip under 2.0500 will bring the 2.0365 support once again to our attention and a move towards that will certainly make us change our bias to the short side.


Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[Sifu786]

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[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View -November 20, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd traded inside a very tight range on Monday but during today's Asian session and early European trading hours the pair just shot up, broke through the 1.4700/1.4735 resistance area and printed a new record high at 1.4790. We mentioned in our previous commentaries that the bullish momentum has slowed down and this move comes as a surprise especially due to its timing and strength. The resistance levels ahead is at the 1.4800 round number with the 1.5000 becoming once again a valid bullish target.



Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


Cable traded around the 2.0500 level for the better part of Monday's session and moved higher in today's Asian session already covering more than 200 points and reaching the 2.0650 resistance level. We mentioned that a move towards the 2.0650 will make us more confident in bullish move but we didn't expect it to be that fast; looking at the daily charts below we can see that once the pair gets above 2.0650 the next resistance and intermediary target is the 2.0775 area on the route to this years record highs. Conversely a new slip towards 2.0500 will bring the 2.0365 support once again to our attention as the pair might enter into a consolidation period.



Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

FXI Daily Technical View November 21 on Euro and Cable

EUR/USD Technical View

EurUsd pushed higher, breaking the former resistance area now turned into support at 1.4700/1.4735; the pair even broke through the 1.4800 level in Tuesday's session reaching a high at 1.4850. So far today we are seeing a small retrace towards the 1.4800 round number but the overall bias is still bullish and perhaps now more than ever the 1.5000 target seems in reach, for this to happen the pair needs to break above 1.4850 which is the closest resistance level. Conversely a slip under 1.4800 combined with the overbought signals from the oscillators will give bears a new chance at opening new trades, the closest bearish target is the former YTD high at 1.4735.



Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd put in a strong day yesterday covering more than 200 points but it lacked energy to stay above the 2.0650 resistance level and we are seeing the pair slipping lower already giving back more than half the points it gained yesterday. This move looks like a retrace and we expect cable to recover and start once again to break the 2.0650 resistance and aim for the 2.0775 target area. On the other hand a strengthening of the US dollar, although unlikely at this point, will push the pair lower and bring to our attention the 2.0500 area as the closest support before the already proven 2.0365 level.



Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number

 

[fxinstructor]

Daily Forex Technical View - November 22, 2007

EUR/USD Technical View

Happy Thanksgiving Day to all that celebrate this holiday, the US markets are closed today and this will certainly have an effect over the foreign exchange pairs. EurUsd printed a new high on Wednesday at 1.4870, and although it hasn't moved that much we see the pair still making higher lows and higher highs and that supports our bullish bias. So far in today's trading session the pair retraced to yesterday's mid range level but as long as we're trading above 1.4800 there is nothing to worry about concerning the bullish trend. Conversely a slip under 1.4800 combined with the overbought signals from the oscillators will give bears a new chance at opening new trades, the closest bearish target is the former YTD high at 1.4735.



Resistance Levels

* 1.5000-- round number
* 1.4870- Nov 22nd high
* 1.4735 –Nov 9th High

Support Levels

* 1.4500- round number
* 1.4300 – Sept 30th High
* 1.4000 – Round number
* 1.3850 – July 24th High


GbpUsd Technical View


GbpUsd behave exactly like we expected in yesterday's US session and bounced off the 2.0550 support area towards the highs and managed to get and stay above 2.0600. Today's price action will probably stay between 2.0600 and 2.0700 as the US markets are closed and many traders are taking a day off. Without any surprises the market should be pretty stable until the start of next week considering that we have a short day on Friday. Getting above 2.0650 is the short term bullish objective and once that is achieved the focus will shift on the pairs next resistance at 2.0700, above that we have the 2.0775 area which is a projected bullish target for the last few days. Support wise as long as the pair trades above 2.0600 the bullish bias is still intact.




Resistance Levels

* 2.1148 – Nov 9th High
* 2.1065 – Nov 7th High
* 2.0650 – July 24th High

Support Levels

* 2.0460 – August 3rd High
* 2.0365 – September 12th High
* 2.0200 – Round number