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Fundamental Indicators

11. Initial Claims / Jobless Claims

Definisi:
Satu indek government untuk track number of people mengisi first-time claims for unemplayment insurans.

Kepentingan:
Investor menggunakan indikator ini berdasarkan 4 weeks moving average untuk mempredik trend dalam labor market. Pergerakan 30,000 atau lebih dalam claim menunjukkan kekuatan perubahan dalam pertumbuhan pekerjaan. Semakin rendah number of claim, semakin kuat market pekerjaan.

Sumber:
The Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor.

Availability:
Setiap Khamis jam 8.30am ET. Data minggu sebelumnya.

Kekerapan:
Weekly

Revision:
Revised figures untuk minggu sebelumnya di release setiap Khamis.
Significance is moderate.

Raw Data:

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/main.htm

More Info in English version

Background
The Jobless Claims Report is a weekly release that shows the number of first-time (initial) filings for state jobless claims nationwide. The data is seasonally adjusted, as certain times of the year are known for above-average hiring for temporary work (harvesting, holidays).

Due to the short sample period, week-to-week results can be volatile, so reported results are most often headlined as a four-week moving average, so that each week's release is the average of the four prior jobless claims reports. The release will show which states have had the biggest changes in claims from the previous week; the revised edition shows up about a week later, at which time a full breakdown by state and U.S. territory is available.

Also released with this report are the relatively minor data points of the insured unemployment rate and the total unemployed persons. These are not seen as valuable indicators because the total unemployed figure tends to stay relatively constant week to week. (To learn more, read Surveying The Employment Report.)

What it Means for Investors
New jobless claims for the week reflect an up-to-the-minute account of who is leaving work unexpectedly, reflecting the "run rate" of the economy's health with little lag time. The Jobless Claims Report gets a lot of press due to its simplicity and the theory that the healthier the job market, the healthier the economy: more people working means more disposable income, which leads to higher personal consumption and gross domestic product (GDP).

The fact that jobless claims are released weekly is both a blessing and a curse for investors; sometimes the markets will take a mid-month jobless claims report and react strongly to it, particularly if it shows a difference from the cumulative evidence of other recent indicators. For instance, if other indicators are showing a weakening economy, a surprise drop in jobless claims could slow down equity sellers and could actually lift stocks, even if only because there isn't any other more recent data to chew on.

A favorable Jobless Claims Report can also get lost in the shuffle of a busy news day, and hardly be noticed by Wall Street at all. The biggest factor week to week is how unsure investors are about the future direction of the economy.




Most economists agree that a sustained change (as shown in the moving averages) of 30,000 claims or more is the benchmark for real job growth or job loss in the economy. Anything less is deemed statistically insignificant by most market analysts.

Strengths:

* Weekly reporting provides for timely, almost real-time snapshots.
* As a tightly-presented release, investors can easily pick up the raw release and quickly apply the information to market decisions.
* Initial claims are provided gross and net of seasonal adjustments, and give a breakdown for every state's individual results.
* Some states' figures are shown along with a comment from that state's reporting agency regarding specific industries in which noteworthy activity is happening, such as "fewer layoffs in the industrial machinery industry".

Weaknesses:

* Summer and other seasonal employment tends to skew the results.
* Highly volatile - revisions to advance report can be very big on a percentage basis
* Jobless claims in isolation tell little about the overall state of the economy.
* No industry breakdowns are provided, just the national figure.
 
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12. ISM Manufacturing Index

Definisi:
ISM Manufacturing Index adalah berdasarkan survey ke atas 300 purchasing managers yang mewakili 20 industri berkaitan dengan aktiviti pembuatan/ 'manufacturing'. Ia merangkumi indikator sebagai 'new orders', 'production', 'employment', 'inventories', 'delivery times', 'prices', 'export orders' dan 'import orders'.

Kepentingan:

Ia merupakan raja segala manufacturing indek. Bacaan 50% ke atas biasanya menunjukkan perkembangan sektor pembuatan dan satu kesihatan pada ekonomi, manakala bacaan di bawah 50% memberi kesan sebaliknya.

Sebagai tambahan, ia adalah hasil pelbagai sub-komponen yang mengandungi informasi berguna tentang aktiviti pembuatan/manufacturing. Komponen production adalah berkaitan dengan industrial production seperti new orders hingga ke durable goods orders, employment hingga ke factory payroll, prices hingga ke producer prices, export orders hingga ke merchandise trade exports and import orders hingga ke merchandise imports.

Indek adalah seasonally adjusted disebabkan kesan dari variasi dalam lingkungan tahunan, perbezaan disebabkan holiday dan perubahan institusi.

Sumber:
Institute for Supply Management (ISM)

Availability:

Pada hari bekerja pertama dalam sesuatu bulan jam 10.00am ET. Data berdasarkan bulan sebelumnya.

Kekerapan:
Setiap Bulan

Revision:

Data tidak di revise.

Raw Data:
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/?navItemNumber=4892

Lain-lain info "ISM Non-Manufacturing Report" in English version

Background
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business, also known as the Service Report, each month.The ISM, a non-profit group with more than 40,000 members engaged in the supply management and purchasing professions, saw the need to represent more than just the manufacturing industry, and especially to give attention to the notoriously absent service sector, which reflects the majority of real gross domestic product (GDP).

While the previously-released ISM Manufacturing ROB and its well-known Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) receives the most Wall Street attention, the Non-Manufacturing Report is quickly becoming a well-read and analyzed indicator since it was first released in 1998.

Currently, the report does not have a composite index - the Business Activity Index is the most summary-oriented piece of the report, as it measures respondents' views on the overall level of business activity; the Business Activity Index will usually be the headline figure presented in publications and the media.

The entire report relates to investors because it represents a much larger share of the economy and, most importantly, it covers the hard-to-measure services industries, the fastest-growing part of the U.S. economy. The survey covers many of the same categories that are found in the PMI, including employment, supplier deliveries, inventory levels, production levels and prices.

What it Means for Investors
Because it is a relatively new indicator, the Service Report has yet to gain the same attention of the PMI, but it is quickly appearing on many top analysts' radars because of its breadth of coverage and original survey format. The Service Report is also a timely indicator, coming out just days after the survey month.

For investors, the Service Report may be more useful than the PMI for examining the status of the industries in which they hold investments, and examining the trends taking place in that corner of the market. Each index (there are 10 in total) can be looked at individually, but the Business Activity Index is the most comprehensive; it asks whether the overall business conditions will be better, the same, or worse in the upcoming month.




The magic number for expansion within the Business Activity Index is 50; levels above 50 indicate that the service-related areas of the economy are generally expanding. Rates of change are important as well as where the economy sits within the current business cycle.

Strengths:

* Consistent and timely; comes out on the third business day of every month, right after the PMI report
* Shows results for the majority of the total economy, most notably the services industries
* When used with the ISM Manufacturing Report, the two reports will capture industries making up nearly 90% of total GDP
* Anecdotal remarks within the release can provide a better perspective from actual professionals.
* Release shows percentage changes from the previous two months separately, as well as the length of any trend along with its relative velocity.

Weaknesses:

* Does not present a diffusion-weighted summary index figure (like the PMI)
* Survey is very subjective in its data retrieval compared to other indicators, using measures such as "higher", "lower" and "the same"
* As a relatively new data series, the Service Report fails to provide long-term historical data and correlations to prior business cycles can't be analyzed.

The Closing Line
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business is a new but telling indicator that is gaining more Wall Street attention with every release, providing insight into business areas not well covered in other indicators.
 
13. ISM Services Index / ISM Non-Manufacturing

Definisi:

Indek berdasarkan satu survey ke atas 370 purchasing executive dalam industri termasuk finance, insurance, real-estate, komunikasi dan utiliti. Laporannya mengenai aktiviti business dalam sektor perkhidmatan.

Kepentingan:

Bacaan di atas 50% mengindikasi perkembangan pada komponen non-manufacturing ekonomi manakala bacaan di bawah 50% mengindikasi contraction.
Indek adalah seasonally adjusted dari kesan variasi dalam sesuatu tahun, perbezaan disebabkan oleh holiday dan perubahan institusi.
Indek ini diperkenalkan pada tahun 1997, jadi ia tidak diikut secara close oleh investor seperti mana ISM Manufacturing Indek yang diperkenalkan sejak tahun 1940an.

Sumber:
Institute for Supply Management (ISM)

Availability:

Hari business ketiga dalam sesuatu bulan pada 10.00am ET. Data dari bulan sebelumnya.

Kekerapan:
Setiap Bulan

Revision:
Data tidak di revise

Raw Data:

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/?navItemNumber=4892
 
14. New Home Sales

Definisi:
Juga dikenali sebagai New Single-Family Houses Sold. Laporan ini berdasarkan interview ke atas hampir 10,000 pemaju dan juga owner ke atas 15,000 projek perumahan pilihan. Ia mengukur nombor pembinaan rumah yang baru dengan komited penjualan dalam sesuatu bulan.

Kepentingan:

Ia mempertimbangkan satu perbelanjaan jangka masa dekat bagi item yang berkait dengan perumahan dan perbelanjaan pengguna secara general. Walaubagaimanapun, pelabur lebih prefer laporan existing home sale yang meliputi sekitar 84% daripada semua akaun penjualan rumah yang selalunya di release pada awal bulan.

Sumber:
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commence.

Availability:

Sekitar hari business terakhir dalam sesuatu bulan pada 10.00am ET. Data berdasarkan bulan yang sebelumnya.

Kekerapan:

Setiap Bulan

Revisi/Semakan:
Data di semak secara bulanan berdasarkan data bulan sebelumnya.

Raw Data:

http://www.census.gov/const/www/newressalesindex.html
 
15. Producer Price Index (PPI)

Definisi:

PPI mengukur purata harga bagi 'fixed basket of capital' dan barangan pengguna di peringkat borong. Ada 3 struktur penerbitan utama untuk PPI: industri; komoditi dan peringkat pembuatan.

Kepentingan:

Ia penting untuk monitor PPI tidak termasuk harga makanan dan tenaga untuk kestabilan bulanan. Ini dirujuk sebagai "core PPI" dan memberi satu gambaran jelas yang mendasari tren inflasi.

Perubahan dalam core PPI dipertimbangkan sebagi perintis bagi inflasi harga pengguna. Tekanan inflasi terhasil bila post "core PPI" lebih besar daripada gain yang dijangka.

Sumber:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

Availability:

Sekitar 11hb setiap bulan pada 8.30am ET. Data berdasarkan bulan sebelumnya.

Revisi:

Data 3 bulan sebelumnya di semak secara bulanan untuk mendapatkan informasi yang lebih lengkap. Faktor ubahsuai musim baru diperkenalkan pada bulan Februari. Revisi ini mempengaruhi sekurangnya nilai data 5 tahun. Significantnya adalah kecil.

Raw Data:

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.toc.htm
 
16. Retail Sales

Definisi:
Indek ini mengukur jualan keseluruhan barangan oleh semua syarikat runcit di U.S (tidak termasuk jualan bagi perkhidmatan). Figure ini adalah dalam nilai Dollar semasa dan ia tidak disesuaikan untuk inflasi. Bagaimanapun, data diubah berdasarkan musim, cuti dan perbezaan hari trading diantara sesuatu bulan dalam tahun tersebut.

Kepentingan:

Ia dipertimbangkan sebagai indikator yang paling tepat untuk patern perbelanjaan pengguna. Ia memberi kita satu deria dalam mencari tren berdasarkan jenis runcit yang berlainan . Tren ini boleh membantu kita untuk spot peluang pelaburan secara spesifik.

Ia sangat penting untuk monitor jualan runcit /'retail sales' yang tidak termasuk kenderaan untuk mengelakkan pergerakan volatility yang ekstrem.

Sumber:
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

Availability:

Sekitar 12hb setiap bulan jam 8.30am ET. Data berdasarkan bulan yang sebelumnya.

Kekerapan:

Setiap bulan.

Revision:

Data 2 bulan sebelumnya di revise secara monthly untuk incorporate informasi yang lebih lengkap. Faktor penegubahsuaian musim baru diperkenalkan dalam bulan Februari. Revision ini mempengaruhi lebih kurang 3 tahun nilai data. Significant nya adalah sederhana / moderate.

Raw Data:

http://www.census.gov/retail/
 
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