Fundamental Analisis By InstaForex

[IFX_Katerina]

Canadian dollar surges to 12-day high against greenback

The Canadian dollar spiked higher against its major counterparts on Monday in early trading. The loonie advanced to a 12-day high against the US dollar, 13-day high versus the euro and a weekly high against the Japanese yen. The petro-linked loonie gained despite a drop in oil prices today. The crude oil for March delivery dropped $0.74 or 1.59% to $45.73 in the session.

Traders continued to weigh Friday's report on Canadian inflation. The Statistics Canada report showed that consumer price index dropped 0.7% in December after falling 0.3% in the previous month. Consumer prices rose 1.2% in the 12 months to December 2008, more slowly than the 2.0% increase in November, the report added. It was the smallest increase since January 2007 and reflected a sharp decline in the price of gasoline. Meanwhile the core CPI continued to hold steady at 2.4% for the second month.

The Bank of Canada's monetary policy report released last week showed that the Canadian economy is expected to face a sharp recession and will continue it in three quarters before growth returns in the second half of 2009.

In its update to its Monetary Policy Report, the central bank said it sees a quarter-to-quarter decline of 2.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008, followed by a 4.8 percent drop for the first three months of 2009 and a drop of one percent in second quarter of this year.

However, the bank expects the downturn may be reversed by the third quarter of the year, when it forecasts two percent growth and 3.5 percent expansion in the last three months of the year.

The Canadian dollar advanced to 1.2210 against the US dollar by 4:15 am ET, the highest level since January 14, 2009. If the loonie moves further up, it may likely target near the 1.2155 level. The loonie-buck pair that closed Friday's deals at 1.2336 is currently trading at 1.2226.

Turning to the U.S, the National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its report on existing home sales for December at 10 AM ET today. Economists estimate existing home sales of 4.40 million for the month.

The Conference Board is also scheduled to release a report on the U.S. leading index for December at the same time. The consensus estimate calls for a 0.3% decline in the leading indicators index for the month.

Against the euro, the Canadian dollar extended its early morning strong rally in early European trading. The loonie soared to near a 2-week high of 1.5811 against the euro by 4:50 am ET, compared to last week's close of 1.6026. On the upside, the Canadian dollar may find resistance near the 1.572 level. The pair is presently trading at 1.5825.

The Canadian currency soared to near a 6-week high of 0.7991 against the Australian dollar by 4:20 am ET and leveled off thereafter. The aussie-loonie pair that closed Friday's deals at 0.8085 is currently trading at 0.7993.

The Canadian dollar climbed a weekly high of 73.03 against the Japanese yen by 4:15 am ET Monday. This may be compared to last week's close of 72.06. As of now, the loonie-yen pair is trading at 72.78 with 73.5 seen as the next target level.

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Copyright(c) 2009 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Published: 2009-01-25 21:09:00

News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX_Katerina]

US - The Day Ahead

Several key economic indicators are scheduled for release at the start of the week.

At 10 am ET, the National Association of Realtors is expected to announce the existing home sales data for December. Economists are looking for a figure of 4.40 million, smaller than November's 4.49 million. The month-on-month decline is forecast at 2% in December, less severe compared with the 8.6% slump in November.

Elsewhere, the Conference Board is expected release the leading economic index for December. The index reading is forecast to fall 0.2% in December, after declining 0.4% in the previous month.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is set to reveal the results of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for January at 10.30 am ET. The headline index was down 61% in December.

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Copyright(c) 2009 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Published: 2009-01-26 00:20:00

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[IFX_Katerina]

Canadian Dollar Spikes Up To New Multi-Day High Against Yen

The Canadian dollar staged a sharp spike against its US and Japanese counterpart by about 2:05 am ET Tuesday. The Canadian dollar is now worth 1.2176 against the dollar and a new multi-day high of 73.95 against the yen, compared to Monday's closing values of 1.2229 and 72.91, respectively. The next upside target level for the loonie is seen around the 1.187 level against the dollar and 75.9 level against the Japanese unit.

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Copyright(c) 2009 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Published: 2009-01-26 18:53:00


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[IFX_Katerina]

Dollar Drifts Lower Versus Euro and Sterling Tuesday Morning

The dollar extended its losses from the previous two sessions versus the euro and sterling amid speculation that its dramatic recent run-up has been way overdone.

With traders expressing a glimmer of hope that government intervention can help to shorten the global recession, riskier higher-yielding currencies have seen some renewing buying interest.

Tuesday's trading may be impacted by the release of the Conference Board's report on consumer confidence in the month of January as well as the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices for November.

On Monday, a report from the National Association of Realtors showed an unexpected increase in existing home sales in the month of December, with some buyers taking advantage of lower home prices.

Looking at Tuesday morning's currency charts, the dollar eased further versus the euro, slipping to a weekly low of 1.3359 before improving to 1.3200. With the retreat, the buck moved away from a 6-week high of 1.2764, set last Thursday.

Tuesday, the European Central Bank said working day and seasonally adjusted current account of the euro area recorded a deficit of EUR 16.0 billion in November. The current account deficit widened from EUR 6 billion deficit recorded in October.

The dollar also stayed under pressure versus the sterling, easing to a weekly low of 1.4242 before stabilizing to trade at 1.4075. The dollar has leveled off since hitting a 23-year high of 1.3501 last week.

The buck continued its run of choppy trading versus the yen, slipping back to 89 after briefly touching above the 90 mark. The dollar has been able to find its footing since hitting a 13-year low of 87.08 on technical trading last week.

The Japanese government is planning to use public money to support companies, which are facing difficulty in surviving in an unfavorable economic condition. Companies that are struggling to raise funds due to credit crunch would be getting benefits of the new plan.

Also Tuesday morning, the buck held steady near 1.2200 versus the loonie after slipping to a nearly 2-week low of 1.2150 on Monday.

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Copyright(c) 2009 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

Published: 2009-01-26 23:03:00

News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX_Katerina]

Australian dollar extends downtrend; falls to 15-day low versus kiwi

During early European deals on Tuesday, the Australian dollar extended its Asian session's downtrend against other major currencies. The Aussie thus declined to a 15-day low against the New Zealand dollar and a 4-day low versus the euro.

The Aussie plunged today as business confidence in Australia fell to a record low in January. According to the survey results published today by National Australia Bank, business confidence index declined 12 points for January to a reading of minus-32, the lowest since the bank began the survey in 1989. In December, the Business Confidence Index improved to minus-20, following the November reading of minus-30.

Australian firms are expected to face exceptionally challenging economic conditions in 2009, the latest Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) business expectations survey revealed today. "Australian firms have had a difficult start to the New Year and executives are anticipating the quarter ahead will be the most challenging yet," D&B said.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor said today that the global financial crisis boils down to a combination of extreme borrowing and optimism.

He noted the financial system is characterised by cycles of optimism and pessimism, but the scale of the latest crisis is new.

Mr Stevens says central banks now face the challenge of creating policy that can handle the complexity of the financial system.

Against the US dollar, the Australian currency traded down during early deals on Tuesday. At 4:10 am ET, the aussie-dollar pair slipped to 0.6635, compared to 0.6788 hit late New York Monday. The pair is currently trading at 0.6650 with 0.64 seen as the next target level.

U.S. President Barack Obama is demanding an economic stimulus bill on his desk before Congress leaves for the Presidents' Day holiday on February 16. The U.S. legislation passed a key test in the Senate earlier today with a 61-36 vote to end delaying-tactics by conservative Republicans that had pushed debate into a seventh day. This has set the stage for a final vote, which would send the package into a House-Senate conference to resolve significant differences between the chambers' respective bills.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also plans to outline rules today for $350 billion in bailout funds designed to help the financial industry as well as homeowners facing foreclosure.

The Australian dollar that closed Monday's North American session at 1.9168 against the European currency touched a 4-day low of 1.9466 at 4:50 am ET Tuesday. The next downside target level for the Aussie is seen around 1.962.

Italy's unadjusted industrial production dropped 12.2% year-on-year in December, after falling 12.7% in November, the ISTAT said Tuesday. The decline was severe than the expected fall of 11.3%. Production dropped for the eighth straight month.

French industrial production declined 1.8% month-on-month in December, slower than November's revised 2.8% fall, the statistical office INSEE said Tuesday. The decline in December matched economists' expectations.

Against the Japanese yen, the Australian currency showed weakness during Tuesday's early deals. At 4:20 am ET, the aussie-yen pair dropped to 60.39, compared to Monday's closing value of 62.10. If the pair falls further, 59.4 is seen as the next target level.

Japanese household consumer confidence rose to 26.4 in January from 26.2 in December, a monthly survey from Cabinet Office showed today. Economists had expected the indicator to fall to 25.2 in January.

The Australian dollar edged down to 1.2436 against its New Zealand counterpart at 4:10 am ET Tuesday. This set a 15-day low for the pair. The next downside target level for the aussie-kiwi pair is seen around 1.229. The pair closed Monday's New York deals at 1.2615.

Against the Canadian dollar, the Aussie hit a low of 0.8167 at 4:10 am ET Tuesday. The aussie-loonie pair that closed yesterday's late New York trading at 0.8265 is now worth 0.8199. On the downside, 0.807 is seen as the next support level for the pair.

Turning to the US, all eyes will be on Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's announcement of plans for the remaining $350 billion left in the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

Also, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will speak on inflation at 9:30 am ET.

The Commerce Department is due to release its wholesale inventories report at 10 am ET. Economists expect wholesale inventories at the end of December to show a 0.6% decline.

In the afternoon, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify in front of the House Financial Services Committee.

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Copyright(c) 2009 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved

News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

 

[IFX Svetlana]

Luxemburg Consumer Price Inflation Slows In January.

Wednesday, Luxemburg's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies said the consumer price index or CPI rose 0.55% year-over-year in January, slower than the 1.1% increase in the previous month.

Food and soft drinks prices rose 2.95% on an annual basis in January, while clothing and footwear prices declined 1.89%. Transport charges were down 4.08%.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 1.12% in January, after falling 0.59% in December.

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[IFX Darika]

US Dollar hits near 3-month high against euro

The US dollar gained ground against its major counterparts on Wednesday morning in New York despite some weak economic reports from the region as traders believe President Obama's plan to stem foreclosures could be a near term positive for the markets. The dollar rose to a new multi-month high against the euro and a new multi-week highs against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

President Obama is due to announce a home loan modification plan today afternoon in Arizona. Yesterday, a $787 billion economic rescue plan was signed into law by Obama, who pledged that the stimulus would help heal a severely damaged economy.

In economic news, the U.S. Commerce Department announced import prices fell 1.1% in January. This followed a string of sharper declines in the previous several months, including a revised 5 percent drop in December and a 7.3 percent fall in November.

Meanwhile, a separate Commerce Department report showed housing starts fell 16.8% to an annual rate of 466,000 in January from the revised December estimate of 560,000. Economists had expected starts to fall to 530,000 from the 550,000 originally reported for the previous month.

Also, a Federal Reserve report showed that industrial production fell by 1.8% in January following a revised 2.4% decrease in December. Economists had expected production to decrease by 1.5% compared to the 2.0% decrease originally reported for the previous month.

The greenback rose to 1.2525 against the common currency of Europe by 10:35 am Eastern Time, the highest level since November 21, 2008. The euro-buck pair that was worth 1.2583 at Tuesday's North American close is currently trading at 1.2532. On the upside, the dollar is likely to target near the 1.25 level.

The euro weakened today after the Euro stat report revealed that the Euro zone construction output declined 2.2% month-on-month in December, compared with a revised 1.7% fall in the previous month. Year-on-year, the construction output dropped 10.1% in December, after falling a revised 5.1% in November.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar jumped to a 6-week high of 93.44 by 10:15 am Eastern Time. The greenback that closed Tuesday's deals at 92.42 versus the yen is presently quoted at 93.4. On the upside, resistance is seen around the 95.8 level.

Traders pondered over a final report from the Economic and Social Research Institute showed that the Japanese leading index stood at 80 in December, revised up from the initial estimate of 79.8. In November, the reading was 81.8. Meanwhile, the coincident index for December was upwardly revised to 92.4 from 92.3. However, the reading was below November's 94.9.

The Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting today. Analysts expect the central bank to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.10% at the end of the meeting tomorrow.

The greenback surged to an 11-week high of 1.1807 against the Swiss franc by 10:35 am Eastern Time. The dollar-franc pair, which closed Tuesday's trading at 1.1697, is currently worth 1.1799. If the dollar moves up further, it is likely to target near the 1.188 level.

The greenback that jumped to a 16-day high of 1.4097 versus the pound in early trading pared gains before the Wall Street opened today. However, it regained momentum in mid-morning and edged slightly higher to 1.4182 by 10:10 am ET. The cable that closed yesterday's deals at 1.4239 is currently trading at 1.4191.

Traders pondered over the release of the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting, which showed that policymakers were split while deciding on a 50 basis points rate cut.

The meeting was held on February 4 and 5. Eight members of the Committee voted to reduce the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 1%. The well-known dove of the rate setting body, David Blanchflower preferred a reduction of 100 basis points.

The interest rate now stands at the lowest level since the central bank was established in 1694.

Investors are now likely to focus on the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at the National Press Club in the afternoon.

Additionally, the Federal Reserve is due to release the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which could shed some light on steps the Fed plans to take in order to stabilize the financial markets. As expected, the Fed maintained its key fed funds rate target unchanged at 0%-0.25% at its January meeting.

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[IFX Darika]

British pound recoups against major rivals

After trading down in early European deals, the British currency edged up against its major counterparts during New York morning trading on Wednesday. The minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting released in early European session, which showed that policymakers were split while deciding on a 50 basis points rate cut.

The meeting was held on February 4 and 5. Eight members of the Committee voted to reduce the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 1%. The well-known dove of the rate setting body, David Blanchflower preferred a reduction of 100 basis points.

After touching a 16-day low of 1.4097 by about 4:30 am ET, the pound reversed its direction against the US dollar in New York morning deals on Wednesday. As of now, the pair is trading near 1.4186.

The US Federal Reserve released its report on industrial production and capacity utilization in the month of January today. The report showed that production fell by 1.8 percent in January following a revised 2.4 percent decrease in December.

According to a report released by the US Commerce Department on Wednesday that housing starts fell 16.8 percent to an annual rate of 466,000 in January from the revised December estimate of 560,000.

The U.S. Commerce Department also said today that import prices fell 1.1 percent for January.

The sterling ticked up against the euro and the Swiss franc from previous session's lows of 0.8910 and 1.6594 in New York morning today. At present, the pound is worth 1.6768 against the franc and 0.8828 versus the euro, compared to yesterday's close of 1.6656 and 0.8840, respectively.

Against the Japanese yen, the British currency also showed strength from European session's downtrend in New York morning deals today. At 10:30 am ET, the pound-yen pair climbed to 133.21 from earlier low of 130.44. Presently, the pair is trading at 132.84.

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[JiraiyaSama]

After trading down in early European deals, the British currency edged up against its major counterparts during New York morning trading on Wednesday. The minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting released in early European session, which showed that policymakers were split while deciding on a 50 basis points rate cut.

The meeting was held on February 4 and 5. Eight members of the Committee voted to reduce the Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 1%. The well-known dove of the rate setting body, David Blanchflower preferred a reduction of 100 basis points.

After touching a 16-day low of 1.4097 by about 4:30 am ET, the pound reversed its direction against the US dollar in New York morning deals on Wednesday. As of now, the pair is trading near 1.4186.

The US Federal Reserve released its report on industrial production and capacity utilization in the month of January today. The report showed that production fell by 1.8 percent in January following a revised 2.4 percent decrease in December.

According to a report released by the US Commerce Department on Wednesday that housing starts fell 16.8 percent to an annual rate of 466,000 in January from the revised December estimate of 560,000.

The U.S. Commerce Department also said today that import prices fell 1.1 percent for January.

The sterling ticked up against the euro and the Swiss franc from previous session's lows of 0.8910 and 1.6594 in New York morning today. At present, the pound is worth 1.6768 against the franc and 0.8828 versus the euro, compared to yesterday's close of 1.6656 and 0.8840, respectively.

Against the Japanese yen, the British currency also showed strength from European session's downtrend in New York morning deals today. At 10:30 am ET, the pound-yen pair climbed to 133.21 from earlier low of 130.44. Presently, the pair is trading at 132.84.

News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.

presently gj on 138.++:"> - 26 feb 2009

 

[IFX Svetlana]

IMF Sees Philippines Economic Growth At 2.9% In 2009

The Philippines economic growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2009 from 4.4% recorded in 2008, the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, said Tuesday.

At its conclusion of 2008 Article IV Consultation with the Philippines, the Executive Board of the IMF said the Philippine economy faces strong headwinds.

Executive directors expected growth to moderate over the near term as external demand falls and private consumption wanes with more modest remittance inflows.

Weaker domestic demand, accompanied by receding commodity prices, should anchor expectations of lower inflation. Executive directors saw scope for further monetary easing if inflation expectations continue to fall.

They recommended that the exchange rate remain flexible so as to adjust to the changing external environment, with the central bank's participation in the foreign exchange market limited to smoothing erratic movements.

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News are provided by InstaForex in partnership with RTT.